Erie Otters 2022 Off-season Thread
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Thanks for sharing. The timing is certainly interesting as we get closer to camp and further away from the actual draft. It would make more sense if this was a week after they selected him.. although it could have been and they are just now sharing the info with the fans. Have to love the “favorite player” answer haha. Brown and McDavid still have a relationship and I’m imagining they have tried to get McDavid to reach out to Molnar and help with recruiting. I’m sure that would help..
Good points. I think they maxed out on current value. The only addition could have been conditionals; like EON and I mentioned yesterday. But overall I don’t think they got a bad return. They got an 04 who had upside and has size. They also got 2 high picks. Not bad.
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Dave gives his thoughts on our most recent picks...
Vancouver Canucks prospect Connor Lockhart hoping to showcase his skills with the Peterborough Petes
Peterborough was a preferred destination when the Kanata native asked for a trade from the Erie Otters.
www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com
A couple things to note:
1) Lockhart did request a trade which I accurately predicted when this trade news broke. So given those circumstances and him having a no trade clause, I think Erie did okay with the return as of now. That could still change
2) Lockhart brought up the coaching and play style here in Erie - and basically said it’s why he didn’t succeed. Once again, as I’ve been saying for years, you need offensive minded coaching staffs in this day in age. This is my biggest concern with BJ as the head coach. Playing a dump and chase game doesn’t work in the OHL. It’s all about forwards and scoring. I didn’t want BJ back for a reason and maybe if they brought in a real and/or up and coming head coach, cleaned out the entire staff, and got a head coach with a more offensive background, then guys like Lockhart wouldn’t be asking out
3) All this said, Lockhart’s lack of success is also on him. His play at times was lazy or lacked effort. Regardless of the team’s style of play, Lockhart playing that way is not going to lead to consistent success especially with his size. If Lockhart has a great year this coming season it will be more to do with his energy, effort, and work ethic than the coaching or play style. Just my opinion
4) Erie better hope to god that this year is somewhat successful. How many more guys opt out or won’t sign here if they miss the playoffs again? Terrance, Lalonde, Artichuk, Sova?? Just to name a few. If Lockhart explodes and gets closer to his projected ceiling while Erie is the same team they have been since 2017-18, its complete utter collapse coming. Like they will never recover. They might never recover at current pace but at least there is a glimmer of hope with guys like Spence here. It will be darker than any days I’ve ever seen if this year goes south. BJ/Brown shouldn’t even be here this year imo so firing them after another bad year will be too little, way too late situation. Without Lockhart now and Molnar nowhere near, I just doubt we have the offensive talent to be anything better than a 7/8 seed. That’s best case and that’s not good enough…
1. I can't say I blame him based on his account of the events that unfolded.Vancouver Canucks prospect Connor Lockhart hoping to showcase his skills with the Peterborough Petes
Peterborough was a preferred destination when the Kanata native asked for a trade from the Erie Otters.
A couple things to note:
1) Lockhart did request a trade which I accurately predicted when this trade news broke. So given those circumstances and him having a no trade clause, I think Erie did okay with the return as of now. That could still change
2) Lockhart brought up the coaching and play style here in Erie - and basically said it’s why he didn’t succeed. Once again, as I’ve been saying for years, you need offensive minded coaching staffs in this day in age. This is my biggest concern with BJ as the head coach. Playing a dump and chase game doesn’t work in the OHL. It’s all about forwards and scoring. I didn’t want BJ back for a reason and maybe if they brought in a real and/or up and coming head coach, cleaned out the entire staff, and got a head coach with a more offensive background, then guys like Lockhart wouldn’t be asking out
3) All this said, Lockhart’s lack of success is also on him. His play at times was lazy or lacked effort. Regardless of the team’s style of play, Lockhart playing that way is not going to lead to consistent success especially with his size. If Lockhart has a great year this coming season it will be more to do with his energy, effort, and work ethic than the coaching or play style. Just my opinion
4) Erie better hope to god that this year is somewhat successful. How many more guys opt out or won’t sign here if they miss the playoffs again? Terrance, Lalonde, Artichuk, Sova?? Just to name a few. If Lockhart explodes and gets closer to his projected ceiling while Erie is the same team they have been since 2017-18, its complete utter collapse coming. Like they will never recover. They might never recover at current pace but at least there is a glimmer of hope with guys like Spence here. It will be darker than any days I’ve ever seen if this year goes south. BJ/Brown shouldn’t even be here this year imo so firing them after another bad year will be too little, way too late situation. Without Lockhart now and Molnar nowhere near, I just doubt we have the offensive talent to be anything better than a 7/8 seed. That’s best case and that’s not good enough…
2. It isn't far off base. Bad coaches can ruin even the best of players. Yes, players can and sometimes do overcome, but terrible coaching can lead to a talented players undoing.
3. 100%...players success is more internally driven IMO vs coaches developing said talent. I think it was a shortcoming on both sides of the equation.
4. As hindsight becomes more and more clear and stories are told or unfold
..the blame IMO shifts more from the players not performing and onto the organization as a whole starting with DB and ending at the coaching staff. Could it have been the reason Cjeka opted to not return inexplicably? I think it's highly plausible. Given the success of Sproule after leaving, it certainly does hint towards coaching/management as well. I've heard rumors Hoffmann kinda ran wild and was part of the reason for his lack of development and if true, part of that falls on the organization.
If Connor has a breakout year and puts up 3rd pick stats 85 - 90+ points it should honestly be a nail in the coffin for our management regardless of where the team finishes.
Let’s compare say Hoff’s compete and hustle / physical play last year to that of the 3rd rnd overall pick Lockharts ..not even comparable IMO ..
But again this is why I said Early on I liked this trade .. the player and returns we received from this forced hand was far better than the Lodnia debacle ..
But again this is why I said Early on I liked this trade .. the player and returns we received from this forced hand was far better than the Lodnia debacle ..
At least they got a decent return and considering Lockhart demanded a trade and had the NTC, this could have easily been worse. Obviously we will wait to judge but let’s say Lockhart explodes this year - it doesn’t necessarily mean they lost the trade. What it really means is they can’t develop yet another 1st rounder and speaks to the coaching/system in place. That is the much bigger concern in the long run. By default, your lack of development on guys like Sproule, Lockhart, etc is going to diminish their value. If you can’t develop guys, you can’t get good returns. If you can’t get good returns, you are going to lose many trades. If you can’t win the trades, get the assets back, and develop the players - then how the hell do you build a winner here? And who the hell would want to report here?
Based on current performance to this date, Lockhart trade value is fair. If he puts up 75-85 points, he might just land in the AHL next year. In which case, Erie still might have made the smart trade depending on Alfano. But it still speaks to, “why didn’t he develop here?” And it might also lead to more guys like Terrance wanting a “change in scenery.” If Lockhart struggles or is less than a PPG again, I think it’s safe to say that they got the highest value they could have gotten and I’ll feel slightly better about development here. The Sproule trade right now is a lucky poker hand for PBO. If we see it with Lockhart, it’s now a trend related to our inability to develop players. That would be a really bad look for the org.
HockeyPops
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See, I disagree. I always want players my team trades away to do well. Other teams are more likely to do deals in the future if they are happy with past deals. Both teams can win in a trade.
I’m not saying I’m rooting for his failures but considering the current state of the team, his success will reflect really poorly on the direction of the organization. My original point was it doesn’t really matter whether they win or lose the trade. What matters is the current lack of development and team management. Lockhart going elsewhere and replicating Sproule in any way is a horrible sign
No, but it likely had more to do with the coaching. He wasn't a "favorite" from that perspective and was given very little chance to perform. Was he a top line player, probably not but he started to perform well in preseason last year only to be outdone by 3 other OA who were higher on the coaches love radar. Skill wise he was probably at or near the top of the OA bunch behind only D'Amato who had a breakout.
He didn't get the same opportunities I believe as Sellan, Hoff, or D'Amato who basically secured their spot the prior season. As such, he was handicapped going into his OA year.
Edit: one last thing to add...outside of maybe D'Amato, Sproule because of his draft spot held the most value which is likely another reason he was traded. Sellan and Hoff wouldn't have netted anything in return.
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I see your point. But, It’s not about Sproule singularly.. it’s if it’s Sproule + Lockhart in back to back years? That’s a bad look. Lockhart just said in the recent article that part of the reason he wanted out / wanted PBO was seeing Sproules success. These are 16-20 year olds. If they see 2 of their friends leave for greener pastures, that’s going to lead to at least a few more wanting out.
Sproule didn’t get the opportunities here like Mata said but I’ll be honest - he also never stood out much. Never thought he had it. Then he goes to a new team and makes immediate impact? That’s a bad look in terms of development and identifying players or putting them in position to succeed
if molanar shows up if not slide edwars there
| LW | C | RW | LD | RD | G |
| Bressette | Cohen | Sedore | Morton | Kyrou | Lalonde |
| Spence | Terrance | Alfano | Kulakov | Johnston | Nicholls |
| Molnár | Artichuk | Saganiuk | Sova | Sauder | Gibbons |
| Ross | Lowe | Smith | Holomego | Alboim | |
| McIsaac | Edwards |
Somewhat accurate but if Molnar shows up, he is getting top 6 mins guaranteed or he won’t be here. Spence likely not in the top 6 to start unless he’s just that special
Cohen - Sedore - Bressette
Saganiuk - Terrance - Alfano
Spence - Artichuk - Lowe/Smith
Lowe/Smith - Ross - Edwards
Morton - Kyrou
Sova - Kulakov
Johnston/Sauder/Alboim
Lalonde
Nicholls/Gibbons
I could see Nicholls being bounced for Gibbons, but doubtful unless Gibbons is truly special.
If Molnar shows up, he will be likely first line, maybe second.
Going to be very interesting to see what happens in the bottom 6 for our offense, however. Artichuck, Ross, Lowe, Smith and Edwards all have a lot of improving to do if we are going to make a playoff push.
Training camp opens today but not open to the public. Only media. That said, we cannot rely on our media to give any real insight. We are stuck waiting. But I’ll put out my thoughts for the record
Erie only has some success this year if these things happen:
1) Goaltending is much improved. Last year they had a bottom 3 worst franchise SV%. That needs to be significantly improved. How confident am I in that? 3 out of 10. Yes Lalonde is back with much more experience and hopefully confidence but Nicholls still seems to be the backup plan and he’s not an OHL goalie. They need something better to push Lalonde. Gibbons at 16 isn’t that. Maybe someone else from prior drafts steps up but with the history of this franchise in net, I highly doubt it. The only reason I’m a 3 and not a 1 on the confidence scale is the potential for a trade still
2) Terrance needs to be a real impact player. My biggest concern is the same it’s been for years now, who the hell is an impact forward on this team? With Lockhart gone, it’s much more critical that Terrance takes off. Not just for this year but for the sake of any hope I have with the development going on in this program. Confidence level a 4 out of 10. I like his skill but I don’t trust our coaching nor do I trust top players to make him better. It’s not like he has Strome or Debrincat to guide him
3) The OAs have to be noticeable. Sellan/Hoffmann were just limited and didn’t provide much of anything to this team last year in terms of winning versus losing. Sproule left and found OA success. Cohen, Sedore, Morton need to be those guys. Morton needs to be significantly more disciplined and set the tone for consistency. Cohen/Sedore need to be at or above a PPG. Confidence level 6 of 10. I feel good about these OAs compared to last year. Maybe I’m too optimistic but at least Cohen found good success last year and there is real skill to improve on.
Overall confidence - 3 out of 10. Not feeling good at all. Molnar not here. Import picks continued to be wasted. Sawyer their 2nd round and recent college commit can’t even show to Camp - another bad look. I just don’t see enough skill and I have a baaaad feeling about things
Erie only has some success this year if these things happen:
1) Goaltending is much improved. Last year they had a bottom 3 worst franchise SV%. That needs to be significantly improved. How confident am I in that? 3 out of 10. Yes Lalonde is back with much more experience and hopefully confidence but Nicholls still seems to be the backup plan and he’s not an OHL goalie. They need something better to push Lalonde. Gibbons at 16 isn’t that. Maybe someone else from prior drafts steps up but with the history of this franchise in net, I highly doubt it. The only reason I’m a 3 and not a 1 on the confidence scale is the potential for a trade still
2) Terrance needs to be a real impact player. My biggest concern is the same it’s been for years now, who the hell is an impact forward on this team? With Lockhart gone, it’s much more critical that Terrance takes off. Not just for this year but for the sake of any hope I have with the development going on in this program. Confidence level a 4 out of 10. I like his skill but I don’t trust our coaching nor do I trust top players to make him better. It’s not like he has Strome or Debrincat to guide him
3) The OAs have to be noticeable. Sellan/Hoffmann were just limited and didn’t provide much of anything to this team last year in terms of winning versus losing. Sproule left and found OA success. Cohen, Sedore, Morton need to be those guys. Morton needs to be significantly more disciplined and set the tone for consistency. Cohen/Sedore need to be at or above a PPG. Confidence level 6 of 10. I feel good about these OAs compared to last year. Maybe I’m too optimistic but at least Cohen found good success last year and there is real skill to improve on.
Overall confidence - 3 out of 10. Not feeling good at all. Molnar not here. Import picks continued to be wasted. Sawyer their 2nd round and recent college commit can’t even show to Camp - another bad look. I just don’t see enough skill and I have a baaaad feeling about things
They haven’t had much to sell…
2019-20 they had Yetman, Golod, Drysdale but this was pre pandemic. They thought all would be back on 2020-21 and would have sold Drysdale in a heartbeat if needed. But he never played another game here.
2021-22 they really only had DAmato in terms of guys graduating. From the rumors back in January, they took offers on him but clearly they didn’t get much of an offer. As an OA, I’m not sure it would have been much
2022-23 they just sold Lockhart. They now have Kyrou, and the OAs - Cohen/Morton/Sedore. Everyone else is back in 2023-24 if they want them to be. They will without question sell Kyrou at the deadline unless they are somehow a competing team (I doubt). But his value has a chance to skyrocket if he’s producing at a PPG pace and improved his defensive game. No reason to sell now
The narrative that some have that Erie is somehow here, with a lack of assets, because they haven’t sold off is just false. Who have they had to sell? Raddysh, Maksimovich, and Lodnia were all sold off. We can debate the value they got back but they traded them all when they should have traded them. Drysdale, Golod, Yetman were never options due to pandemic - but without a doubt they would have traded at least Drysdale when the time came, unless they were competing in the conference. The rest of their players really never held value to begin with or they were OAs with less value. The one you could say is DAmato but again, the trade prices in January were indicative of a clear buyers market. I doubt they would have gotten a fair return on him because we know they shopped him around
Btw in terms of their draft cupboard - here is what I have, which might not be accurate but is probably closer than many:
2023: 2nd, 2nd
2024: 2nd, 3rd
2025: 3rd, 3rd
2026: 2nd, 2nd, 3rd
It’s pretty normal or at least okay now. Considering where they started in 2017, this is not too bad. If they trade Kyrou at the deadline and let’s say add 3 higher picks in this 2023-26 timeframe, they are right back in good shape. Add a 3rd in 2023, a 2nd in 2025 and one higher one in 2026. Which is the value someone like Kyrou might fetch you. I’m not concerned with the assets much anymore - assuming my above list is accurate. My concerns still are the drafting/signing players and then ultimately the development of players. Which is still up for debate but will be pretty clear by year end in terms of how Terrance and many of the 2003-2004s perform this year
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I don’t disagree. I’ve been a harsh critic recently. But I’m not sure what they have done previously or up to this point that could have really changed the amount of assets they have had or didn’t have. Again we can argue a few trades or value they got back but that point is mute. There is no singular glaring trade mistake that has cost them such as not trading Drysdale. When they had to make a move or sell off, they did. The problem is now and probably has been the actual development of players / coaching. Second has been the use of assets such as missing out on imports and wasting high picks on college kids. That’s why the magnifying glass will be on Dave Brown this year.
I mean think of this - if Lockhart was developed (coming into this year coming off a 80-90 point season), they had a legit import forward that had a PPG projection (again they have had high picks to make that happen but whiffed), and they had developed one of their 2nd rounders Ross or Saganiuk into a PPG player — then we would be looking at this team as a legit middle pack threat with confidence in Terrance and others to develop as well. Instead, there is a glaring lack of high end development going on and it’s a problem
I'll combine 1 and 2...
Goaltending doesn't matter at all if we don't have number 2. So I would argue number 2 is more important than the first one in the offense wins championship league. Looking at possible lines above, yeah I'm pretty scared of how things will look offensively if our development is behind the curve. Lockhart was arguably our best offensive weapon returning outside of perhaps Cohen. If we don't see big jumps from Saganiuk, Terrance, Sedore (50+ points a piece) AND Molnar doesn't report I have a hard time seeing any natural snipers on this team to put up solid goals unless Alfano performs as he was scouted originally.
As for number 3...
Well, we have had some good high draft picks, but really only Drysdale would have fetched a pretty penny. Sellan, D'Amato, and Hoff had little trade value heading into the season last year with only D'Amato adding to it, quite significantly I may add, by the deadline. The problem was, returns didn't seem to be as good as they were pre-covid and I didn't count Sproule because he was dealt prior to. Sproule had the most trade value prior to the season based on his draft position alone. As you've eluded to, outside of Drysdale our top picks have not been developing as one would expect from a 1st round pick and our support players haven't exactly commanded top dollar.
The sad part is, outside of the 1st rounders, our trade value of "developed" players outside of maybe Lalonde right now is extremely low even still.
Wolfman Jack
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I would agree that 2nd point might be more important than my 1st point. I wasn’t necessarily ranking them, however, and more was just saying at MINIMUM all 3 of these things need to happen for this team to just be okay. They have no margin for error. If their goaltending is what it was last year, they aren’t winning games because their offense is not even close to a 300+ goal offense to cover for a bad goalie duo. If Terrance and some offensive guys develop, it doesn’t matter if the goalies are giving up 4 goals a game or aren’t consistent. All 3 need to happen or it’s going to be a long year
I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a guy like Cohen to jump from 61 to 81 points. For Bressette/Sedore to go from ~47 to 70. For Terrance to have a breakout year and get a PPG. And for Saganiuk, Alfano, and 1/2 others making more consistent, solid contributions. These types of jumps happen all the time in the OHL. The problem is that Erie needs MANY guys to make BIG jumps just to have a chance. Maybe if Molnar was here I would feel better because at least we could argue it’s a youth movement. But if they win less than 30 games yet again this year and Sedore, Cohen, Bressette, Saganiuk are 4 of your top 5 scorers - that’s a major issue. 2 are OAs while 2 others are pending OAs. We need young guys to start to take over and build something. Terrance, Artichuk, Spence, etc. Basically all the 2004-2006s. If they win 25 games but Terrance puts up 75 points, Spence wins rookie of the year, and another 1/2 young forward makes a big jump then I’ll feel better. But I don’t have any confidence in that happening either. I predict a long year. Hope I’m wrong..
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