Too early to tell anyways. Sellan had 9 points in 5 preseason games. Sedore had 11 points. Sellan was basically no threat last year and finished 7th in points on a bad team. Lockhart should produce in the preseason but that doesn’t always translate to the regular season. It definitely is a good sign for him but like 7D said, Alfano has been productive early as well. Even if Lockhart goes off with 80-85 points, that pain will be mitigated if Alfano is at 50-60 points with more eligibility left.
Erie Otters 2022-23 Season Thread
- Thread starter EON
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Spent some time researching the Otters returning production on the backend because I wanted to see where it ranked historically. I have attached a chart here for reference.
Disclaimer:
*This data has some obvious flaws and I’m not pretending it’s perfect or shows any consistent correlation. But I did all the work so I wanted to share with the group if interested.
Of note: The data doesn’t take into account the goalie situation or who started in net during years where GA increased versus decreased. It also doesn’t account for overall production returning. For example: This year, Christian Kyrou returns. For the purposes of this chart, I only counted his GP, Goals, and Assist production from 2021-22 and not any stats from his play in 2019-20. In other words, returning production here is only accounting from the prior year.
*In the attached chart - GA stands for Goals Against that season. GP stands for combined games played on the backend returning that season from the prior year
Key takeaways:
Erie’s 368 GP returning production this year on the backend ranks 2nd best in franchise history - behind only 2014-15 (383 GP returning). Their returning combined goal production on the backend from last year ranks best in franchise history with 36G. Their returning assist production (98A) ranks 2nd best behind only the 2010-2011 team.
When Erie returns over 300 games of production from the year prior, 62.5% of the time their GA goes down that year with an average decrease of 44.6 goals from the year prior.
Despite Erie’s poor performance last year, only returning 79 GP on the backend from 2019-20, and having the 2nd worst team SV% in the league - they ranked 14th in GA.
Overall, the data suggests their GA should decrease this season on average. The main outlier in the data here is 2018-2019. The other 3 seasons where GA didn’t decrease despite returning more production were 2002-03 (clear rebuild/coming off OHL title), 2009-10 and 2014-15 (replacing legit starts in Janus/Dansk). But in 2009-2010, they were still near average in GA while in 2014-15, they ranked 6th in the OHL in GA. Overall this 2022-23 has a chance to be better in net and they return 368 GP on the backend compared to 237 GP returning in 2018-2019 (which ranks 16th out of 24 seasons in Otters history - so not great). That 2018-19 defense the following year, in 2019-20, when they were older and better, returned 324 GP and dropped their GA by 64 which ranked 11th in the OHL. Pretty good for a borderline playoff team.
The 13 best seasons Erie has had with returning production led to a decrease GA in 10 of those 13 seasons, or 77% of the time. The outliers there are still those same seasons talked about earlier - 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2014-15. Let me add that 2009-10 and 2014-15 groups were also coming off major production drops the two years prior, making it almost a guarantee their GA would increase to some degree because hard to get better than what they had done the year before
Disclaimer:
*This data has some obvious flaws and I’m not pretending it’s perfect or shows any consistent correlation. But I did all the work so I wanted to share with the group if interested.
Of note: The data doesn’t take into account the goalie situation or who started in net during years where GA increased versus decreased. It also doesn’t account for overall production returning. For example: This year, Christian Kyrou returns. For the purposes of this chart, I only counted his GP, Goals, and Assist production from 2021-22 and not any stats from his play in 2019-20. In other words, returning production here is only accounting from the prior year.
*In the attached chart - GA stands for Goals Against that season. GP stands for combined games played on the backend returning that season from the prior year
Key takeaways:
Erie’s 368 GP returning production this year on the backend ranks 2nd best in franchise history - behind only 2014-15 (383 GP returning). Their returning combined goal production on the backend from last year ranks best in franchise history with 36G. Their returning assist production (98A) ranks 2nd best behind only the 2010-2011 team.
When Erie returns over 300 games of production from the year prior, 62.5% of the time their GA goes down that year with an average decrease of 44.6 goals from the year prior.
- In the years their GA did not drop despite returning over 300 GP of production from the year prior (2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15) - they either lost their starting goalie from the year prior or were coming off an OHL title season/obvious rebuild.
- The lone exceptions where the GA average went up despite better returning production from the year prior were 2002-2003, 2009-10, 2014-2015, 2018-19. Three of those four years were just touched on in my earlier point. In 2018-19, Murphy returned but the team was still very early stages of the rebuild and trading off players.
- Also noting that in 2014-15, their GA still ranked 6th best in OHL despite an increase in GA from the year prior. Still a great GA season.
Despite Erie’s poor performance last year, only returning 79 GP on the backend from 2019-20, and having the 2nd worst team SV% in the league - they ranked 14th in GA.
Overall, the data suggests their GA should decrease this season on average. The main outlier in the data here is 2018-2019. The other 3 seasons where GA didn’t decrease despite returning more production were 2002-03 (clear rebuild/coming off OHL title), 2009-10 and 2014-15 (replacing legit starts in Janus/Dansk). But in 2009-2010, they were still near average in GA while in 2014-15, they ranked 6th in the OHL in GA. Overall this 2022-23 has a chance to be better in net and they return 368 GP on the backend compared to 237 GP returning in 2018-2019 (which ranks 16th out of 24 seasons in Otters history - so not great). That 2018-19 defense the following year, in 2019-20, when they were older and better, returned 324 GP and dropped their GA by 64 which ranked 11th in the OHL. Pretty good for a borderline playoff team.
The 13 best seasons Erie has had with returning production led to a decrease GA in 10 of those 13 seasons, or 77% of the time. The outliers there are still those same seasons talked about earlier - 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2014-15. Let me add that 2009-10 and 2014-15 groups were also coming off major production drops the two years prior, making it almost a guarantee their GA would increase to some degree because hard to get better than what they had done the year before
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StingUpdates
Registered User
- Jan 12, 2019
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To those of us in Erie :
I think we found Victor Fernandez’s replacement for Otters News, notes, injury reports, team info , etc !! ( yes i know he doesn’t have the time though)
Erie Otters Zone
Registered User
Otters down 5-1 to Niagara right now, Nichols 3GAA/18 shots while currently Gibbons is struggling again 2GAA 3 shots
Kingpin794
Smart A** In A Jersey
Well this is not being live streamed so I can’t tell you. But when I use my eyes and memory - last year, blame the defense all you want, but the goalies at times couldn’t stop a beach ball. At other times they gave out rebounds like candy. So the goalies have been an issue here since forever. Even going back to the really well coached, top talented teams with Knoblauch here. The goalies usually underwhelmed
Kingpin794
Smart A** In A Jersey
I guess my point is, if you put the leagues best goalie on the team, does they move them from a 7-9 team to a 4-5 seed? Probably not. There’s probably other things that need to be addressed that will have larger effects than goalie. I think Lalonde is a good young tender. Just need to set him up for the best chance to succeed.
Dude.. chill. Nobody ever said the goalies were the biggest issue. I certainly didn’t. But don’t be delusional now and say a top goalie wouldn’t make a big difference.. they can cover up a lot of flaws and steal a lot of games. Much like a QB. Probably not going from 9th to 4th seed on a goalie alone … but can you go from 9th to 6th seed? 8th to 5th seed? Yeah, for sure. Plenty of examples of it. Specifically in Erie - 2004-2005. Josh Disher really was their best player. Without him, they probably don’t make the playoffs. Instead they were a 5th seed team that competed in round 1.
Really weird, Gibbons is.
The first game he played he let in like 3 on 4 shots and settled down. This game it's 2 on 3. Outside of those stints he seems to he performing well. The questions will be, is it a prep thing for him, a transition from juniors to the OHL, a combination of both, something else? 5 goals on 7 shots is absolutely dreadful but the remainder of his time in net is 3 goals conceded in 37 shots or .919% save and that's promising. If he can figure out why he had 2 games where he started off absolutely dreadful, he may not be all that bad.
To be fair to him, in both these bad stints it’s when they put him in mid game. Weird strategy. I get that there is a competition with the backups by why the need to play them each in every game? You have 6 preseason games. I think it’s fair to say Lalonde will get 1/2 games. Maybe 1 tomorrow and 1 the last weekend. But that still leaves 4 games for Nicholls and Gibbons to split. Both could have gotten a full game of action vs NIA this weekend if you were concerned about opponents. I don’t know, it makes no sense. I think the strategy to split a game in half is odd and not ideal and yet they have done it for 3 straight games…
I think they should rename this board to the HFComplaintBoard. I do believe this is only preseason. I am surprised their weren’t any complaints about the tie color BJ wore last weekend. That had to contribute to at least 2 of the goals Gibbons gave up and not the fact that he is young and making a transition to the OHL.
I was about to post this and not an excuse to Gibbons weird stints, but that’s the common denominator to his poor starts.
Like come on. Give Nicholls and Gibbons their designated preseason days to play a whole game. Not to mention, the staffs decision in the regular season is to usually keep the goalies in the game until they’ve been score on 5-6 times so they’re hung out to dry. That’s if they even decide to pull them from the game. Swapping goalies mid game doesn’t prepare them for any real experience for a true 60 minutes. Both have struggled when they are thrown in midway.
Dave Brown needs to do better, and he’s been on thin ice for me this season. These kids deserve better especially with most having most of last years team back.
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I will be in Niagara tonight so if anything is worth noting I’ll try to post.
Just got to the Meridian Centre. The team got here extra early. Would think a pregame work out is in order after last night. They must have dropped their equipment off here last night after the game.
They weren’t in their typical bus with the Sweet Caroline so maybe the skin isn’t ready. Obviously this isn’t useful info by any means but some one who has frequently been on the road this is how we’d know it’s them.
They weren’t in their typical bus with the Sweet Caroline so maybe the skin isn’t ready. Obviously this isn’t useful info by any means but some one who has frequently been on the road this is how we’d know it’s them.
He’s a great guy. Really want this team to succeed for him.
Hoping you get a good look at some players tonight. Enjoy
My data started acting up, so better late than never? Here are my notes.
*Lucas Signoretti goal from a rebound blindside
*Artichuk nice backhand to Lowe from center
*After the first period, everyone came off the ice like it was the end of the game and gave Gibbons some love. He kept them in it saving 16/17 shots in the first.
*24/26 saves from Gibbons. He was really upset for letting the second goal in.
*Here comes Nicholls who has billets and family here.
*Way too many turnovers in the neutral zone
*3rd shot on net, goal and an easy floater to the back of the net
*Nicholls held on to the post to save his life to keep it 3-2 Icedogs
*Just for humor, the same post Nicholls held onto, wouldn’t come out its hole. We almost had a repeat of our last home preseason game, but alas 3 people later and it came out.
*Gibbons has good character. Even though he’s “benched” for the 3rd, he stood at the door and fist bumped the entire team before they came on the ice.
*3rd period start
*McDonald 5 hole. Tied 3-3
*Alfano HUGE body on the PP. I wouldn’t want to be a goalie behind him. He’s all over the ice and continues to be impressive with his size.
*Penalties is what’s going to hurt this team. They have to be more disciplined.
*Smith with a great breakaway attempt, but gloved by Rosenweig
*PK looks good, PP is useless
*Here comes Alfano, breakaway attempt. Flew into the post of the best and coincidentally the puck lands exactly vertical on goal line.
*Lots of good attempts late, 1 minute to go.
*Rosenweig is absolutely beside himself and chucked the puck down the ice. 4-3 us and it’s over.
*1.1 second left and a complete brawl ensues.
*Fimis STILL wanted to go at it at the whistle but the officials wave them all off the ice.
*Lawson gave me the game winning puck, so it was a good trip with the W!
I really wanted to be a fly on the wall here. With Brown and Waters. Worth noting, I assume Brown went to the locker room after the first. He left the box during that intermission, but stayed for the 2nd intermission.
*Lucas Signoretti goal from a rebound blindside
*Artichuk nice backhand to Lowe from center
*After the first period, everyone came off the ice like it was the end of the game and gave Gibbons some love. He kept them in it saving 16/17 shots in the first.
*24/26 saves from Gibbons. He was really upset for letting the second goal in.
*Here comes Nicholls who has billets and family here.
*Way too many turnovers in the neutral zone
*3rd shot on net, goal and an easy floater to the back of the net
*Nicholls held on to the post to save his life to keep it 3-2 Icedogs
*Just for humor, the same post Nicholls held onto, wouldn’t come out its hole. We almost had a repeat of our last home preseason game, but alas 3 people later and it came out.
*Gibbons has good character. Even though he’s “benched” for the 3rd, he stood at the door and fist bumped the entire team before they came on the ice.
*3rd period start
*McDonald 5 hole. Tied 3-3
*Alfano HUGE body on the PP. I wouldn’t want to be a goalie behind him. He’s all over the ice and continues to be impressive with his size.
*Penalties is what’s going to hurt this team. They have to be more disciplined.
*Smith with a great breakaway attempt, but gloved by Rosenweig
*PK looks good, PP is useless
*Here comes Alfano, breakaway attempt. Flew into the post of the best and coincidentally the puck lands exactly vertical on goal line.
*Lots of good attempts late, 1 minute to go.
*Rosenweig is absolutely beside himself and chucked the puck down the ice. 4-3 us and it’s over.
*1.1 second left and a complete brawl ensues.
*Fimis STILL wanted to go at it at the whistle but the officials wave them all off the ice.
*Lawson gave me the game winning puck, so it was a good trip with the W!
I really wanted to be a fly on the wall here. With Brown and Waters. Worth noting, I assume Brown went to the locker room after the first. He left the box during that intermission, but stayed for the 2nd intermission.
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This team 100% needs to be more disciplined and avoid the stupid turnovers. They have to play simple and clean to win. They aren’t going to win on skill alone so they have to compensate for that by doing all the small things right, like staying out of the box, not getting lazy on the back check, going to the net hard, winning faceoffs, etc. It’s frustrating to hear that those types of mistakes keep happening with this team. Terrance 5/20 on faceoffs… yikes. When will we ever develop or find a true center? That would help…
If they cleaned up on those things (which means if they were better coached) then they would have 5-6 more wins a year and be more competitive. I know it’s only preseason but just deja vu …
How did McDonald look? He’s putting up decent numbers and I hope he’s another potential DAmato u18 draft steal. Also curious on how Terrance and Spence looked
Same old, same old. The PP had no huge jump to it. Coincidentally, we ran into Alfano and he’s frustrated with the PP.
Who isn’t? Why are our special teams mediocre at best?
We need quicker transitions and better positioning.
Based on todays tandem, Nicholls really wasn’t leaving the post. I think Gibbons had the better show, but again. Is it because he started? He was really down on himself after the 2nd goal he allowed. The team was supportive of him during breaks in play and good saves.
Well it would help if we had more talent and/or an offensive head coach with some modern gameplay ideas. Our coaching is just meh
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