Sasha Orlov
Lord of the Manor
- Jun 22, 2018
- 7,055
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There is literally no way for you to spin it so that Hutson looks less impressive lol sorry
Epic Calder Race 2024-25
- Thread starter Fraser28
- Start date
...of course it matters...it should...no one who's actually serious about this Debate is knocking what Celebrini is doing as an 18 year old rookie; it's spectacular...I personally just find what Hutson is doing to be even more so...and we can't forget what an undersized rookie G is doing in Calgary, even if he is older than the other two...this is a phenomenal Calder Race and we all should be happy it's happening...
Agreed! I have commented multiple times about Hutson being highly skilled with an elite hockey IQ and is in the midst for a historic season.
- Jul 25, 2007
- 2,855
- 1,683
This is where I am. Hutson is close to history and he looks like a dangerous waterbug out there. He has improved defensively, and he has many "wow" plays and highlights. Like many offensive D and smaller D, he sometimes gets exposed, but this is offset by his offensive creativity and prowess.
What's the case for Celebrini then? If he does win, it'll be because the voters a) are biased toward draft pedigree, b) are moved by the "1C on a bottom dweller and clearly the best player on his team, plus two-way". Maybe they're biased against Hutson for some reason, who knows.
I was interested, so I did a little analysis using MoneyPuck.
- Of all teams' leading scorers, at 5v5 and all situations, which leader is involved in the highest % of goals with a point? With a primary point?
- At 101 points on 221 EDM All-situations goals, Draisatl is in on 46% of his team's All situations goals. Holy shit.
- Drai is 2nd to Pastrnak on all situations primary points % - 35%, Pasta at 36%.
- Celebrini leads the Sharks at all-situations points, and is in on 28% of all sharks goals. This is "6th worst" in the league for a team points leader. However, primary points, at 21% of all team points, he's 8th "worst" in the league.
- He's 16th though for % of total team goals as the top scorer on his team.
- For 5v5, the top points% getters are Pasta, Crosby, and Draisatl, who are involved in 26%, 24%, and 23% of all team 5v5 goals, respectively.
- Celebrini is involved in 15% of team 5v5 goals, 7th from bottom for all team leaders.
- However, once again, for Primary points he's 17th, and for goals he's 18th.
- For comparison, I added Hutson as a line in here. Hutson's stats:
- Involved in 12% of his team's goals at 5v5, which would be last among team leaders (no surprise, he's not a team leader in points, and he's a D)
- Involved in 6% of his team's 5v5 goals as a primary point producer, last among team leaders (again, no surprise, he's a D man and a lot of his utility is in transition and/or setting up plays)
- Involved in 26% of his team's points in all situations, which beats Lee/NYI and Stephenson/SEA.
- Involved in 12% of his team's all situations points as a goal or primary assist - again, lots of secondary assists, doesn't mean he's not amazing but it is what it is
- % of points at 5v5 - Hutson is at 47% (would be 6th most "PP reliant"), Celebrini at 54% (right in the middle), top is Lee at 78% 5v5 points and the most PP-reliant team leader at all situations is Raymond with only 41% of points coming at 5v5.
- Since there are a lot of Habs fans following -- Caufield leads MTL, contributing to 21% of all 5v5 goals, and 19% with a primary point. That's 5th overall. Suzuki is at 35% all-situations points, and 24% primary. That's 14th and 20th overall.
What's the case for Wolf? The Flames are by a number of measures one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Worst in G/GP 5v5 at 1.5, worst in the league at All Situations G/GP at 2.5. And he's almost singlehandedly dragging them into the playoffs. Goalies have an uphill battle but one could easily see him as a candidate for team MVP, which should obviously put him in contention for the Calder. He should certainly be a finalist over Michkov unless Michkov has an absolute tear in the final stretch.
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Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
Yes I wasn't downplaying Hutson. The poster I quoted was using a laughing emoji in regards to how Celebrini was 80th in points, I just wanted to point out to him there was a 3 point difference in the two....as a defenseman...that context matters...
No shame in whomever wins. As long as it’s not Michkov.
SjMilhouse
Registered User
- Jul 18, 2012
- 2,111
- 2,412
Like it or not, the media seems to be hyping Celebrini so I'd be shocked if he doesn't win this but that's just my thought.
We can argue this until we are blue in the face, guarantee the voters aren't thinking about this to this degree or even close in terms of underlying metrics, etc.
We can argue this until we are blue in the face, guarantee the voters aren't thinking about this to this degree or even close in terms of underlying metrics, etc.
Timo Time
73-9
Again, such a sick rookie class. Having a candidate in every position is crazy.
In most of the previous years, most of Huston, Celibrini, Michkov and Wolf would have either won or finish second in voting.
This year crops of rookies is just unbelievably talented.
Lafleurs Guy
Guuuuuuuy!
- Jul 20, 2007
- 73,703
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Comparing Hutson to Celebrini to Wolf is foolish. If you want to assess a players performance, compare him to his peers. Hutson is having a season not seen in decades, when compared to other rookie defensemen. The other two, while impressive, are not doing anything nearly as exceptional when compared to other calder winners at their position.
ole ole
Registered User
- Oct 7, 2017
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That has nothing to do with the Calder. It's about who's having the better season.
ole ole
Registered User
- Oct 7, 2017
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Ya that's how i have it as of today. I believe it's Lane's to lose'Pretty much. And he's a d-man. Celebrini is a freaking centerman. He should be many more points ahead of him even if they were of equal performance. How does so many people skip over that?
Right now, it's Hutson and then Wolf and Celebrini.
If season ended today Hutson wins guaranteed. We will have to see how the last 15 goes but it’s Hutsons to lose, zero doubt in my mind.
karltonian
Registered User
- Jan 1, 2023
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Imagine if any player Hutson passed to was not a threat to score. Even if that player was on a breakaway or backdoor with an open net.
That's what Celebrini is working with.
That's what Celebrini is working with.
If your team wasn't so bad you wouldn't have Celebrini to begin with.
matt trick
Registered User
- Jun 12, 2007
- 9,783
- 1,389
Good point, glad we sucked last year. Glad we suck this year too. Won't be glad when we suck next year, but at least it's an excellent draft. As long as we don't suck (bottom 7) the following year, I'll be content.
Wouldn't trade Celebrini for any of 'em, but Hutson is a joy to watch. I love puck-moving d-men, and he is a special one.
Jabba11
Hockey Lobby
I think the same can apply to Celebrini. It's his to lose. If he doesn't put up the points, he's gonna take himself out of the conversation. Sames with Wolf and his wins and Hutson with his points.
I don't think the term "his to lose" can be applied since we have all insane players competing for this Calder. Including Michkov too. He's losing it right now though. Cause it was his to lose earlier in the season
You have no idea how many plays have died on the sticks of guys like Anderson, Gallagher, Dvorak, Armia, and Evans lol
Great game from them last night though
Hutson has benefited from some easy assists to laine for sure. Suzuki has evolved into a true 1c. Caufield will be close to 40g 70+ pts. A real first line winger.
That said Hutson hasn’t had a steady d partner for more than 20 games and often has been forced to play on his off side, so it’s certainly not a perfect situation.
Best season not best player. No one should be disrespecting 18 year old celebrini playing for a trash (no offence) team
Lafleurs Guy
Guuuuuuuy!
- Jul 20, 2007
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The truly crazy thing right now is that he's doing this on his off side. Anyone paired with him automatically has their stats/play go up. He's just absolutely awesome.
Nevermind that. Celebrini has won 400 more faceoffs than either Hutson or Wolf...
karltonian
Registered User
- Jan 1, 2023
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Lafleurs Guy
Guuuuuuuy!
- Jul 20, 2007
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Honestly though, Celebrini being on a weak team is irrelevant as well. I don’t think it will factor into the vote.
None of this matters in the long run though. The Calder is a cool one time award but it doesn’t determine future success. Lots of great players didn’t win it.
Win or lose, Celebrini is only 18 and putting in an incredible season. It won’t matter much in the long run.
Our PP was not a threat to score until Hutson joined it. Hutson is a HUGE reason why we are in a playoff spot. We wouldn't be San Jose bad....but we probably wouldn't be sniffing playoffs by this point.
Hutson isn't necessarily good because the team around him is good.
But our team is certainly better because Hutson is good.
karltonian
Registered User
- Jan 1, 2023
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It depends if people watch the games to make up their minds. If they do they will notice how much Celebrini does on the ice and how he generates so much that on other teams would turn into points more frequently. Context does matter.
