Epic Calder Race 2024-25

... in 11 more games... as a 20 year old... just some more context... although likely doesn't matter when it comes to the Calder.

...of course it matters...it should...no one who's actually serious about this Debate is knocking what Celebrini is doing as an 18 year old rookie; it's spectacular...I personally just find what Hutson is doing to be even more so...and we can't forget what an undersized rookie G is doing in Calgary, even if he is older than the other two...this is a phenomenal Calder Race and we all should be happy it's happening...
 
...of course it matters...it should...no one who's actually serious about this Debate is knocking what Celebrini is doing as an 18 year old rookie; it's spectacular...I personally just find what Hutson is doing to be even more so...and we can't forget what an undersized rookie G is doing in Calgary, even if he is older than the other two...this is a phenomenal Calder Race and we all should be happy it's happening...
This is where I am. Hutson is close to history and he looks like a dangerous waterbug out there. He has improved defensively, and he has many "wow" plays and highlights. Like many offensive D and smaller D, he sometimes gets exposed, but this is offset by his offensive creativity and prowess.

What's the case for Celebrini then? If he does win, it'll be because the voters a) are biased toward draft pedigree, b) are moved by the "1C on a bottom dweller and clearly the best player on his team, plus two-way". Maybe they're biased against Hutson for some reason, who knows.

I was interested, so I did a little analysis using MoneyPuck.
  • Of all teams' leading scorers, at 5v5 and all situations, which leader is involved in the highest % of goals with a point? With a primary point?
  • At 101 points on 221 EDM All-situations goals, Draisatl is in on 46% of his team's All situations goals. Holy shit.
  • Drai is 2nd to Pastrnak on all situations primary points % - 35%, Pasta at 36%.
  • Celebrini leads the Sharks at all-situations points, and is in on 28% of all sharks goals. This is "6th worst" in the league for a team points leader. However, primary points, at 21% of all team points, he's 8th "worst" in the league.
  • He's 16th though for % of total team goals as the top scorer on his team.
  • For 5v5, the top points% getters are Pasta, Crosby, and Draisatl, who are involved in 26%, 24%, and 23% of all team 5v5 goals, respectively.
  • Celebrini is involved in 15% of team 5v5 goals, 7th from bottom for all team leaders.
  • However, once again, for Primary points he's 17th, and for goals he's 18th.
  • For comparison, I added Hutson as a line in here. Hutson's stats:
    • Involved in 12% of his team's goals at 5v5, which would be last among team leaders (no surprise, he's not a team leader in points, and he's a D)
    • Involved in 6% of his team's 5v5 goals as a primary point producer, last among team leaders (again, no surprise, he's a D man and a lot of his utility is in transition and/or setting up plays)
    • Involved in 26% of his team's points in all situations, which beats Lee/NYI and Stephenson/SEA.
    • Involved in 12% of his team's all situations points as a goal or primary assist - again, lots of secondary assists, doesn't mean he's not amazing but it is what it is
    • % of points at 5v5 - Hutson is at 47% (would be 6th most "PP reliant"), Celebrini at 54% (right in the middle), top is Lee at 78% 5v5 points and the most PP-reliant team leader at all situations is Raymond with only 41% of points coming at 5v5.
  • Since there are a lot of Habs fans following -- Caufield leads MTL, contributing to 21% of all 5v5 goals, and 19% with a primary point. That's 5th overall. Suzuki is at 35% all-situations points, and 24% primary. That's 14th and 20th overall.
So, IF the voters choose Celebrini, which is less and less likely given what Hutson is doing, it may be because he's in the middle of the pack across the league as the leading scorer on his team at 5v5 and all situations -- as an 18 year old with a reliable two-way game.

What's the case for Wolf? The Flames are by a number of measures one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Worst in G/GP 5v5 at 1.5, worst in the league at All Situations G/GP at 2.5. And he's almost singlehandedly dragging them into the playoffs. Goalies have an uphill battle but one could easily see him as a candidate for team MVP, which should obviously put him in contention for the Calder. He should certainly be a finalist over Michkov unless Michkov has an absolute tear in the final stretch.
 
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Celebrini is leading the Sharks in points as an 18 year old with 1C responsibilities. Also performing at an almost PPG on one of the worst teams in the past two decades with little to no help from the backend/defensive side makes that a little tough. Jake Walamn had 13 points in 28 GP since December. Next highest scoring Dmen for the Sharks is Ferraro/Liljegren, both with 13 points.
But he’s -27.



Am I doing this right?
 
Yes I wasn't downplaying Hutson. The poster I quoted was using a laughing emoji in regards to how Celebrini was 80th in points, I just wanted to point out to him there was a 3 point difference in the two.
Comparing Hutson to Celebrini to Wolf is foolish. If you want to assess a players performance, compare him to his peers. Hutson is having a season not seen in decades, when compared to other rookie defensemen. The other two, while impressive, are not doing anything nearly as exceptional when compared to other calder winners at their position.
 
Pretty much. And he's a d-man. Celebrini is a freaking centerman. He should be many more points ahead of him even if they were of equal performance. How does so many people skip over that? :laugh:

Right now, it's Hutson and then Wolf and Celebrini.
Ya that's how i have it as of today. I believe it's Lane's to lose'
 
If your team wasn't so bad you wouldn't have Celebrini to begin with.

Good point, glad we sucked last year. Glad we suck this year too. Won't be glad when we suck next year, but at least it's an excellent draft. As long as we don't suck (bottom 7) the following year, I'll be content.

Wouldn't trade Celebrini for any of 'em, but Hutson is a joy to watch. I love puck-moving d-men, and he is a special one.
 
If season ended today Hutson wins guaranteed. We will have to see how the last 15 goes but it’s Hutsons to lose, zero doubt in my mind.
I think the same can apply to Celebrini. It's his to lose. If he doesn't put up the points, he's gonna take himself out of the conversation. Sames with Wolf and his wins and Hutson with his points.

I don't think the term "his to lose" can be applied since we have all insane players competing for this Calder. Including Michkov too. He's losing it right now though. Cause it was his to lose earlier in the season
 
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Imagine if any player Hutson passed to was not a threat to score. Even if that player was on a breakaway or backdoor with an open net.

That's what Celebrini is working with.
You have no idea how many plays have died on the sticks of guys like Anderson, Gallagher, Dvorak, Armia, and Evans lol

Great game from them last night though
 
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Imagine if any player Hutson passed to was not a threat to score. Even if that player was on a breakaway or backdoor with an open net.

That's what Celebrini is working with.
Hutson has benefited from some easy assists to laine for sure. Suzuki has evolved into a true 1c. Caufield will be close to 40g 70+ pts. A real first line winger.

That said Hutson hasn’t had a steady d partner for more than 20 games and often has been forced to play on his off side, so it’s certainly not a perfect situation.

Best season not best player. No one should be disrespecting 18 year old celebrini playing for a trash (no offence) team
 
Hutson has benefited from some easy assists to laine for sure. Suzuki has evolved into a true 1c. Caufield will be close to 40g 70+ pts. A real first line winger.

That said Hutson hasn’t had a steady d partner for more than 20 games and often has been forced to play on his off side, so it’s certainly not a perfect situation.

Best season not best player. No one should be disrespecting 18 year old celebrini playing for a trash (no offence) team
The truly crazy thing right now is that he's doing this on his off side. Anyone paired with him automatically has their stats/play go up. He's just absolutely awesome.

21 goals sounds so much more impressive than 4.
Nevermind that. Celebrini has won 400 more faceoffs than either Hutson or Wolf...
 
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This is true, but irrelevant.
Honestly though, Celebrini being on a weak team is irrelevant as well. I don’t think it will factor into the vote.

None of this matters in the long run though. The Calder is a cool one time award but it doesn’t determine future success. Lots of great players didn’t win it.

Win or lose, Celebrini is only 18 and putting in an incredible season. It won’t matter much in the long run.
 
Imagine if any player Hutson passed to was not a threat to score. Even if that player was on a breakaway or backdoor with an open net.

That's what Celebrini is working with.
Our PP was not a threat to score until Hutson joined it. Hutson is a HUGE reason why we are in a playoff spot. We wouldn't be San Jose bad....but we probably wouldn't be sniffing playoffs by this point.

Hutson isn't necessarily good because the team around him is good.

But our team is certainly better because Hutson is good.
 
Honestly though, Celebrini being on a weak team is irrelevant as well. I don’t think it will factor into the vote.

None of this matters in the long run though. The Calder is a cool one time award but it doesn’t determine future success. Lots of great players didn’t win it.

Win or lose, Celebrini is only 18 and putting in an incredible season. It won’t matter much in the long run.
It depends if people watch the games to make up their minds. If they do they will notice how much Celebrini does on the ice and how he generates so much that on other teams would turn into points more frequently. Context does matter.
 
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