ChuckNorris4Cup
Registered User
- May 31, 2018
- 3,192
- 2,428
Player Discussion Elias Pettersson - Please, Be Civil
- Thread starter Vector
- Start date
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
If we're trading underperforming players (relative to last year), that's basically the whole team aside from Hughes, Garland, and DeBrusk.
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
ChuckNorris4Cup
Registered User
- May 31, 2018
- 3,192
- 2,428
Yup pretty much everyone besides Miller, Hughes, Garland, Debrusk and Sherwood should be free game to be moved, team needs a shake up, these slow starts that have been going on for years under 3 coaches needs a change.
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
ChuckNorris4Cup
Registered User
- May 31, 2018
- 3,192
- 2,428
No not really for what he's being paid for no, point per game player, plus he's the Canucks best face off guy, he's not underperforming.
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
You have to account for his age - the later years of his deal he will be expected to underperform his salary, so he needs to outperform it right now.
That said, I don't have a problem with him. But he is underperforming comparative to last season.
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
What percentage chance does an american team have to make the finals. If a canadian team has 44% like you say. Id likeyou to show your work using 25 instead of 7. Like 12.5 instead of 3.5
ChuckNorris4Cup
Registered User
- May 31, 2018
- 3,192
- 2,428
No I know and yes he's down from last years stats, but still producing at a point per game pace so can't really get that upset, it's the other guy making $11.6M being the 5th highest paid player in league, and it's not just based off his points, it's his lack of strength in general I can't stand, so I'd be more than happy to move him. I wonder if that Necas trade is still available from last season...
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
Sure, no problem.
So it's 25/16. That's 1.56.
Maybe where you're getting hung up is that you have to account for there being 2 spots in the finals, not just one. So in any given year, there will be 1.56 US teams in the finals, and 0.44 Canadian teams (on average).
No I know and yes he's down from last years stats, but still producing at a point per game pace so can't really get that upset, it's the other guy making $11.6M being the 5th highest paid player in league, and it's not just based off his points, it's his lack of strength in general I can't stand, so I'd be more than happy to move him. I wonder if that Necas trade is still available from last season...
I somehow doubt it. I have my doubts that Necas would be playing like he is right now if he was on this team.
AzNightmare
Unregistered User
- May 11, 2011
- 1,827
- 1,556
Gambler's Fallacy. The odds have no bearing on the outcome from previous seasons. Other than that, statistically, you're right from a simplicity sake.
ChuckNorris4Cup
Registered User
- May 31, 2018
- 3,192
- 2,428
Well duh that's what the emoji was for lol. Debrusk is working, anything is possible.
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
I guess in a way it is 200%, if you look at it as being 100% for each spot.
I'm treating each season individually, there is nothing from other seasons taken into account.
The emojis on this site are pretty limited and rather confusing.
Your canadian math was 3.5/16 accounting for half of canadas teams making the playoffs. Why didnt you do 12.5/16 for american teams?
ChuckNorris4Cup
Registered User
- May 31, 2018
- 3,192
- 2,428
There's actually quite a bit of them I'm surprised, but yes they can be confusing agree. But $6.5M compared to $11.6M would of been much better imo.
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
Oh, you want me to run it through from the beginning again for the US?
Sure.
Each team has a 1 in 2 chance of making the playoffs, so half of the teams will make it, ie 12.5 as you mention. Each team has a 1/8 chance of making it out of their conference into the finals. So that's 12.5/8, or 1.56, or 25/16.
What would have been even better is if they signed Pettersson long term after his ELC like he wanted instead of bridging him. Carolina is probably regretting not giving Necas a longer deal as well.
So if us teams have over 3 times chance of making the finals, how does a canadian team have a 44% chance?
AzNightmare
Unregistered User
- May 11, 2011
- 1,827
- 1,556
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
well, statistically you can add up the odds from each year to get the total for multiple years.
Maybe think about it his way:
We do a coin flip with a loonie, and whoever wins gets to keep it. That's 1/2 odds, or 50%. You win, and have $1.
We do it again. This time I win, and I have $1.
We do this 8 more times, each of us winning half of the flips.
You have $5, I have $5. You have added up the 1/2 odds 10 times to get $5.
PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
I mean Miller was unable to even lace the skates for a good portion of the season.
Sell high on him while you can!
Ernie
Registered User
- Aug 3, 2004
- 13,338
- 3,170
Remember, that's 44% for 1 out of 2 sports. So slightly more than half the time, US teams will have both spots. But about every 2nd year, a Canadian team should be in.
