7 goals in his last 40 games. 8 in 53 if you count playoffs
Beating a dead horse I know but this is fascinatingly depressing
To break that down a bit more (only regular season to avoid calculations):
Over that span he’s averaged 6.45 shots per 60. Outside 22/23 he’s been closer to 7.75. That’s about a 17% drop.
Over that span, he’s shot 8.33%, relative to a career norm of 15ish percent. He’d have 13 (26 goal full season rate) if closer to career norms on SH%, even with his reduced rate of generating shots.
Over that span, he has 11.5 individual expected goals. Pettersson’s career has two discrete chunks. Prior to 22/23 he’s in the low 20s/82 games for ixG, basically right in line with what he’s done over the last 40. In 22/23 and the first half of 23/24, he’s over 30/82, so it’s a fall of compared to recent play. Also coincides with Kuzemenko’s arrival/departure.
The difference from pre-22/23 to today is that he used to regularly beat his ixG by 40-50% while now he’s lagging it. Some of that is probably bad luck but he’s also clearly not shooting the puck well, so some of it is probably skill related. How much is luck vs talent at this point, who knows.
So there’s not one or two smoking guns - basically everything has gone downhill, probably including his luck.