Player Discussion Elias Pettersson - A Forward Who Scores

Nick Lang

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May 14, 2015
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It’s way too expensive for sure, I tried it a couple of times and that was it.

Yeah, for something like what you're dealing with I'm sure any relief, even temporary is a godsend.

I'm not sure how your stuff works where you are, aren't you in the UK, but here general Medicare is paid through taxes but not this pseudo science.
 
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bossram

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Sep 25, 2013
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I think your conclusion is suspect because one of the premises it relies on is demonstrably false as shown by all of those quotes. A central tenet of your argument is that because he looks slow he must have an injury to explain that. However, this premise is actually false because he's looked slow before and didn't have an injury that caused that.


We aren't talking about your opinion on whether "he'll be fine" and that you didn't want to trade him. And in fact, I think he will come out of this slump just as he did the last one. The point is whether he was slow and not skating fast during his last slump and clearly people think this was the case. Frankly, I don't think anyone at that time would have made an argument to the contrary.


Ya, I don't actually disagree with you on that. I also don't think he is being lazy.
I mean, it's not demonstrably false. I think the evidence is pretty significant that his skating is laboured. The NHL Edge data backs this up.

Is your evidence....quotes from other HFboarders?

Again, I searched my post history and I never actually mentioned Petey's skating during his previous slump. Maybe I'm crazy, or maybe everyone else was wrong. People were saying he was lazy then, and perhaps that was the reason for his poor skating previously. He does not appear to be playing "lazy" during this stretch.
Nice, another strawman from you!
It's not really. The argument from you is basically that this injury, which appears to be physically limiting, should not be physically limiting him to this extent. That was an accurate summary by the other poster.
He didn't have a leg injury to explain being slow in 2021 nor does he have any sort of injury to explain the decline in his shot power this season, and yet people want to blame that on some phantom injury, too.
A lower body injury would affect shooting mechanics, significantly so.

Again, whether it would render his shot this ineffectual, I'm not sure.
 

Regal

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Mar 12, 2010
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ixG should be a (rough) measure of shot quality though. Relative to pre-2022/23, his average shot quality over the last 40 games is higher than it was historically because he’s taking fewer shots to generate a similar number of ixG. He’s down a bit in shot quality relative to the Kuzmenko-era, but that’s already reflected in the drop ixG.

If you look at just high danger chances, the same is the case - Pettersson generated about 1 per game pre 22/23 but has been at 1.15 per game the last 40 games, so that doesn’t explain it either.

I believe expected goals is mostly about location, so I’m not surprised there isn’t a significant difference there because he’s often scored because of the strength of his release rather than getting great chances, which I think is why he regularly beats his expected goals. If his release is significantly worse, which visually is the case, his shooting percentage would naturally go down.

I’m also curious how missed shots play into this as well. Pettersson used to miss high all the time because he was trying to pick the corner, and we haven’t been seeing that as much either it seems because he hasn’t been able to take those kinds of shots
 
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mriswith

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Oct 12, 2011
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That's poor logic though. One issue is a medical issue, and one is a PR issue. Very clearly different people and different expertise are involved and to assume that because one is poor the other is poor is illogical.
That's how losing credibility works. They massively bungled how they handled Mik's injury. Either they didn't understand the injury, or they were extremely incompetent in how they handled it. If they make exactly the same mistake with EP that they did with Mik, then that will have affected how they handled their PR.

They don't get the benefit of the doubt anymore after Mik.

You've made a similar appeal to authority argument repeatedly with Boudreau that's aged poorly:

Hodgy said:
He actually specifically references confidence as to why he thinks Pettersson is slumping, and why he thought Pettersson slumped two years ago. He notably doesn’t make reference to any injury, and you can bet that if he was injured last time and that that injury was the reason for Pettersson’s slump, that Boudreau would have shared that and speculated that since Boudreau is obviously a big fan of Pettersson and this would help to excuse his play.

So ya, I think Boudreau probably has a way better idea as to why Pettersson is slumping than you do.

------

I just can't believe someone would favour unsubstantiated speculation of Pettersson being injured this slump, and last slump, over his former coach basically speaking exactly on this subject.

mriswith said:
Boudreau doesn't have inside information on whether he's injured or not. Pettersson's linemates are not hidden secrets that only Boudreau can evaluate.

I'm sure Boudreau is right and his confidence is low right now.

I will also be very surprised if he isn't injured right now and I don't buy the narrative at all that it's 100% an emotional issue. There is literally no one in the entire league close to his calibre and expectations who gets two 4th line anchors as their permanent wingers.

The idea that he was injured and it was effecting his play during his slump was, to you and in your words, beyond belief.

This is NOT a straw man, those are your exact words.

I wouldn't bank on appealing to mgmt's authority as aging any better that what you did here

For sure he was working through it in the off season. Presumably he was trying not to exasperate the patellar tendinitis and was doing physiotherapy focused on strengthening the surrounding muscles. That's what my physiotherapy recommended for my patellar tendinitis.

But that doesn't mean the injury is "significant", and when you listen to the interview Pettersson very clearly doesn't think it is:

Petey: i don't know exactly how to explain it, but its like a nagging injury, don't want to go around it easy, but we figured out a way to work around it

Reporter: is part of that maybe some rest in camp

Petey: we'll see, I don't feel any pain right now or after so its....its not a big thing, the knee is fine

If the injury was "significant", in Pettersson's eyes, he wouldn't say it wasn't "a big thing", unless you think he was lying for whatever reason.

The actual quote is "It's like a nagging injury that doesn't want to go away, but we figured out a way to work around it and we're good. I don't feel any pain in it right now, it's not a big deal it's fine." After describing how he had to change his offseason training to work around his knee.

An injury that starts in January, is still ongoing, makes him train around it during the offseason and continue working around it now, is a significant injury. If he says at that moment it's fine, that doesn't negate everything else he's said about it.

I'll pretend for a minute that I agree with what you clearly think to be true, that he is not currently injured, which I don't. The facts that have been laid out clearly show he had a significant injury during his entire slump last year.

I believe my initial point on Garland wasthat he never looked, relatively speaking, anywhere near as bad as Pettersson has looked, and that's the main reason why I didn't think the comparison was great. And I stand by that. But this is a pretty minor point and I don't really care much to debate it further since we don't fundamentally disagree on the point that linemates matter.
I brought up Garland. I was talking to strat about how once a player has been screwed around with enough, you can't instantly fix the player by putting them with better linemates.

Once in a slump it can take players a long time to work back out of it even when the conditions that first caused the slump have changed. Garland looked night and day in his first half season here vs his second season.

There are a ton of other external factors though, like the pressures surrounding the negotiation of his new contract, Tochett's defensive system, Kuzmenko as a linemate cratering. I agree that confidence/mental issues probably weren't the sole first factors though.
Then that means that those are the issues that cause it to start, and confidence is secondary, as I have been saying.

This is a total strawman though. It doesn't reflect my opinion accurately at all, and frankly, its pretty frustrating that we could have this indepth of a debate and you could, whether intentionally or unintentionally, so incorrectly frame my argument. Literally just earlierin the day you posted I said I didn't know the severity of Pettersson's injury and that only Pettersson knows how severe the injury is. Never have I stated that I was certain on this, and my general argument, which I think I have been relatively consistent on, is that I thought and think, that on a balance of probabilities, an injury is not the predominant or primary factor in why Pettersson is playing so poorly.
"An injury is not the predominant or primary factor in why EP played so poorly last season" would be a new stance from you. You have been clear that you do not believe his injury has had any significant effect on his play going back to January last year.

You started this entire argument with me six months ago because I said during the playoffs that I would be surprised if he wasn't injured.

If you now think the injury was a factor, just not the "predominant or primary factor" then we no longer have anything to argue about.

I have never cared to rank the order of importance for the different reasons for his slump. I frankly don't care. From the very beginning my argument has been entirely about the people who refuse to acknowledge any external factors as contributing and insist it's 100% related to some aspect of his mental state, which is verifiably wrong. And your main issue very consistently was with my opinion last year that he had some sort of injury.

That's the position you've disagreed with and been arguing with me about going back six months now. Are you trying to claim that every time you started arguing with me after I posted "I think he's injured" you actually agreed with me? I'm supposed to believe that? Or that at some point during this argument, your opinion changed but you neglected to inform me that you'd changed your view and kept arguing with me over... something you essentially agree on?


My issue was you conclusively ruling out confidence or mental health as being the cause of the slump. I think that's what I initially took issue with. The bolded, I think, is just another strawman unless I am missing an argument I previously made? I don't recall weighing in on what was the most plausible cause of his slump but perhaps I am wrong.
I conclusively ruled out confidence as having started the slump because losing confidence doesn't happen randomly in the middle of a career year, something else goes wrong first. I have always said I'm sure it's a factor now. As for mental health, I did not rule that out. I'll quote myself since this has gone on long enough that I don't need to rewrite my opinion yet again:

mriswith said:
And then is there a personal mental health issue? Maybe, particularly late in the season or looking at it carrying over to this year. But for this or any other variant of "he decided not to try harder" to be the only contributing factor to a colossal dropoff mid-career-season during a contract year is beyond belief outside of some catastrophic event or mental breakdown.

This isn't "conclusively ruling out mental health", it's always possible he randomly had a mental breakdown out of nowhere. Maybe it's the biggest issue now, who knows. But given what we now know for a fact, it's clearly not the most likely reason his slump started back in January.

Again, this is just a big strawman that you are creating for whatever reason.
The whole idea that I have always rejected that he's injured is just total bullshit.
On May 3rd you and I literally were discussing whether Pettersson was injured:
It's not a strawman. The entire reason this argument started six months ago was because you took issue with me saying during the playoffs that I would be surprised if he wasn't injured. That started this entire exchange. That was enough for you to start this entire thing that you are so dug in on now. I said over and over and over again that I took issue with the idea it's 100% mental and I believed he had some sort of injury, and those are the posts that you repeatedly argued with me over again and again.

You have been consistent in your opinion that injuries have never been a significant factor in his play. You clearly doubted he was injured last year and when the news came out that he was injured, you continued to believe that it never had a significant impact on his play. The fact that I thought he was injured despite your Boudreau quote was literally beyond belief to you.

Meanwhile my opinion hasn't changed, the only thing different is that everything I was saying that you were calling unsubstantiated has been substantiated. This is what I posted six months ago:
~6 months ago mriswith said:
I'm not arguing with people who just think Pettersson is slumping, we all know that. I have a problem with the narrative being pushed that it's 100% about his emotional state and that's the only thing effecting his performance. It's objectively not true and that's something that the people pushing this narrative will never acknowledge.

You called this statement "out of touch" and said you side with the Boudreau quote about it being all about confidence. Your position can be clearly inferred. But sure, complain about strawmen. Your opinion was very clear at the time.

No one would blame you for changing it given the new information that came out should you choose to do so but for some reason you'd rather continue this argument again and again instead.
 
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DimitriL07

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Jan 24, 2023
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He goes flying into hits all the time, idk about all this knee stuff. If anything it’s the wrist. I don’t wanna say his injury talk is just cope but even if he’s banged up how can someone supposedly so elite never look good. It’s literally every 5-10 games he’ll have a couple of old EP flashes. I can see how people think he’s injured because he looks so flat and slow with the puck, but then you’ll see him fly into a forecheck and lay hits, it’s just a weird contrast. This guy is just all in his own head imo
 
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1440

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Feb 20, 2013
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There has been a lot of unnecessary hand wringing about EP so far this season. His play has not been as good as the first 10 games last season (where he was the best player in the NHL), but there are a lot of obvious signs that he has just been unlucky so far:
  • The most obvious one is his shooting %. Career 16.6% shooter, currently at 6.7%.
    • This is a player that was ranked 2nd last year in shooting talent above average by Money Puck (behind Draisaitl).
    • 9.9% below his career average is completely unsustainable. Even if he is hurt or has regressed, he should still probably be converting at at least twice his current rate.
  • A related stat is the team's shooting percentage while he is on the ice. Career 13.1%, currently 10.5%.
    • 2.6% below average may not seem like much, but it is larger when you consider the volume of shots in play. Pettersson is typically on the ice for ~900 shots for in a full season, so this would be worth ~23 goals for fewer over a whole season.
  • This leads us into the second largest factor for his decreased production, IPP (Individual Points Percentage). Career is 68.1%, this year is 44.4%.
    • 23.7% below his average is huge. This basically means he is only accumulating 2/3 the usual number of points for every goal that is scored while he is on the ice.
      • Some of this might be from being less involved in the play, but a lot is just "bad luck" (being the player who makes the third pass for examples - no less important to the play in many cases). I have written a little last year about how the Canuck's PP changed formations such that EP was getting a lot more "third assists".
        • This is also evidenced by the drop in his secondary assist rate from a career average of 0.75/60 to 0.31/60 this year.
    • For comparison, his IPP value is the lowest amongst Canucks forwards (Hughes and Forbort have higher), and about half of what Garland, Sherwood and Blueger are putting up so far this season at >80%.
      • I suspect this stat alone is enough to explain why the perception is that these three are off to hot starts while EP is not. Again some of that is deserved, some is chance.
All of this adds up to a pretty significant lowering of points production based on factors which should regress in the coming weeks. He has gotten unlucky to the tune of about 1 goal via shooting percentage, 2 assists via IPP, and another assist via on ice shooting percentage. 8 points instead of 4 in 10 games is a dramatic difference (double) but still not up to his normal (PPG) production levels. Despite the factors above, there are still points to be concerned about:
  • He isn't shooting as much or from as dangerous of positions.
    • His shots/60 rates are career = 7.8, current = 4.7.
    • His ixG/60 (NST) rates are career = 0.93, current = 0.67.
  • His giveaway/60 rate is up. Career = 1.7, current = 2.5.
  • He is missing the net more. Career = 24%, current = 28%
  • His shots are being blocked more. Career = 24%, current = 33%
    • This adds up to 42% of unblocked shots miss this year versus 32% career.
Overall, it is clear that his recent run of poor form is largely the result of bad luck, but that has likely led to lower confidence and therefore an actual drop in the quality of his play. Still, if I were a betting person (and I am), I would be picking Pettersson up in every fantasy league I could manage. The positive shooting percentage regression is inevitable, and when that comes the return of confidence is likely to follow closely behind.

Unlike some have suggested, I don't think injury is at play here at all. His hits, hits taken and blocked shots numbers are all up this year, and he is clearly trying hard to engage himself in the play physically. If I were his coach I would probably advise him to calm his game down a little bit, play in the centre of the ice (where his world class anticipation allows him to pick off lots of pucks), let others focus on the puck retrieval and physical aspects of the game, and to endeavor to be the trigger man rather than passing to others. I suspect playing with Suter, and especially the return of Joshua will help in this regard.
 

Hodgy

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Feb 23, 2012
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That's how losing credibility works. They massively bungled how they handled Mik's injury. Either they didn't understand the injury, or they were extremely incompetent in how they handled it. If they make exactly the same mistake with EP that they did with Mik, then that will have affected how they handled their PR.

They don't get the benefit of the doubt anymore after Mik.

I think they are separate things though. There is bungling it from a medical perspective, and bungling it from a PR perspective. I can see how the former can seep into the latter, but I don't think that just because they have bungled several injuries from a medical perspective (assuming they have) that they are more likely to bungle things from a PR perspective. And aside from their medical issues, this management has actually been quite competent so I don't think I am at the point of dismissing some or all of their actions as having no merit or meaning because they have lost credibility.


You've made a similar appeal to authority argument repeatedly with Boudreau that's aged poorly:
Citing Boudreau's opinion on the matter actually isn't a classic appeal to authority fallacy as I wasn't citing Bourdeau because of his status as a media member or coach generally, but because he actually coached Pettersson during his last slump, and therefore, is privy to far more information than you or I or most others have (e.g., how significant of a factor Pettersson's past wrist injury was in his past slump).

The idea that he was injured and it was effecting his play during his slump was, to you and in your words, beyond belief.

This is NOT a straw man, those are your exact words.

Actually, that's not what I said in the quote. In the quote I said that I couldn't believe someone would favour unsubstantiated speculation of Pettersson being injured over his former coach basically speaking exactly on this subject. The question was what source to favour. And for clarity, the question wasn't whether one should conclude with certainty either way based on those sources.

I never said in that quote that I couldn't believe he was injured and that it was effecting his play and framing my argument as such is obviously a strawman. Frankly, its a dumb idea that anyone knows for certainty at any time whether or not a player is injured and whether or not any such injury is impacting the player's play and the extent of that impact.
I wouldn't bank on appealing to mgmt's authority as aging any better that what you did here

Again, it wasn't actually a classic appeal to authority fallacy. But with that said, I think you very well could be right that management has f***ed up in their PR on this whole thing. Its entirely possible that they view Pettersson's injury as way more minor than Pettersson views it or it actually is.

The actual quote is "It's like a nagging injury that doesn't want to go away, but we figured out a way to work around it and we're good. I don't feel any pain in it right now, it's not a big deal it's fine." After describing how he had to change his offseason training to work around his knee.

An injury that starts in January, is still ongoing, makes him train around it during the offseason and continue working around it now, is a significant injury. If he says at that moment it's fine, that doesn't negate everything else he's said about it.

I have already discussed this with @pitseleh , but personally, I think its farfetched that he's lying about the severity of the injury while deciding to be truthful about the existence of the injury. I would have thought that if he didn't want to use it as an excuse then he just would have lied about the existence all together. With that said, I acknowledge that he may in fact be lying about the severity, or perhaps more likely, the injury could worsen since training camp.

I just provided the quotes from Pettersson as someone else linked to the interview in this thread and they were obviously relevant to the discussion at hand.

I'll pretend for a minute that I agree with what you clearly think to be true, that he is not currently injured, which I don't.

What are you talking about? Everyone knows he injured. Since he came out after the playoffs and said he was injured I've never disputed the fact that he was injured. The question since then has always been the degree to which his severity has caused his poor play. And even before he confirmed he was injured I always recognized he could be injured. Back in December of 2023 I posted that "he may be injured but who really knows".

The facts that have been laid out clearly show he had a significant injury during his entire slump last year.
They don't clearly show this. Its very much debatable which is why its being debated ad nauseum. by you and I and many other posters. And I am not going to sit here and say I know whether the injury is significant (because I don't), and frankly, its kind of just semantics, but to me it definitely isn't clear one way or another.

I brought up Garland. I was talking to strat about how once a player has been screwed around with enough, you can't instantly fix the player by putting them with better linemates.

Once in a slump it can take players a long time to work back out of it even when the conditions that first caused the slump have changed. Garland looked night and day in his first half season here vs his second season.

Then that means that those are the issues that cause it to start, and confidence is secondary, as I have been saying.
I agree with this point generally, although again, don't necessarily agree that Garland is the best example.

"An injury is not the predominant or primary factor in why EP played so poorly last season" would be a new stance from you.

I think I have been relatively consistent on my position recognizing that I have many posts on this subject so there are going to be varying ways in which I have described my position. But back on May 2nd, 2024 in response to you I described my position as follows:

on a balance of probabilities, I find it unlikely that Pettersson's injuries are the primary reason why he has been playing poorly since like February or whatever.​

So ya, I don't think its a new stance from me.


You have been clear that you do not believe his injury has had any significant effect on his play going back to January last year.

When I search my posts I actually can't find the reference you are speaking to in January.

You started this entire argument with me six months ago because I said during the playoffs that I would be surprised if he wasn't injured.

If you now think the injury was a factor, just not the "predominant or primary factor" then we no longer have anything to argue about.

Again, my position has been pretty consistent, and against, my position as stated to you on May 2, 2024 was:

on a balance of probabilities, I find it unlikely that Pettersson's injuries are the primary reason why he has been playing poorly since like February or whatever.​

I have also described my position many times subsequently, and I have recognized that there are likely multiple factors / impacts (including the injury) resulting in Pettersson's play. Personally, I just think, on a balance of probabilities, that the injuries are not the primary reason why he has been playing poorly,

I have never cared to rank the order of importance for the different reasons for his slump. I frankly don't care. From the very beginning my argument has been entirely about the people who refuse to acknowledge any external factors as contributing and insist it's 100% related to some aspect of his mental state, which is verifiably wrong.
I'm not sure how many posters, if any, actually hold this position.

And your main issue very consistently was with my opinion last year that he had some sort of injury.
Again, my position is pretty clearly outlined above in that quote from May. And even before he came out and said he was injured I had recognized that he may in fact be injured,.

That's the position you've disagreed with and been arguing with me about going back six months now. Are you trying to claim that every time you started arguing with me after I posted "I think he's injured" you actually agreed with me?

I'm supposed to believe that? Or that at some point during this argument, your opinion changed but you neglected to inform me that you'd changed your view and kept arguing with me over... something you essentially agree on?

I think I have made my position pretty clear over the past six months. I have provided a quote above from May of 2024, but have identified my position other times as well. So you can determine for yourself whether and to what extent you disagree with me. Its not like my position is some secret. Its all on the record.


I conclusively ruled out confidence as having started the slump because losing confidence doesn't happen randomly in the middle of a career year, something else goes wrong first. I have always said I'm sure it's a factor now. As for mental health, I did not rule that out. I'll quote myself since this has gone on long enough that I don't need to rewrite my opinion yet again:
I think a slump can probably result from confidence or mental health (e.g., you get some bad breaks and you don't score for a while, and it snowballs). I don't think it necessarily needs to be caused by an external factor.

This isn't "conclusively ruling out mental health", it's always possible he randomly had a mental breakdown out of nowhere. Maybe it's the biggest issue now, who knows. But given what we now know for a fact, it's clearly not the most likely reason his slump started back in January.

My reference to you "conclusively ruling out mental health" was only ever in respect of the cause of the slump My position was never that you, on the whole, have conclusively ruled out mental health.



It's not a strawman. The entire reason this argument started six months ago was because you took issue with me saying during the playoffs that I would be surprised if he wasn't injured. That started this entire exchange. That was enough for you to start this entire thing that you are so dug in on now. I said over and over and over again that I took issue with the idea it's 100% mental and I believed he had some sort of injury, and those are the posts that you repeatedly argued with me over again and again.

It 100% is a strawman. My position was literally communicated to you as being the following in May:

on a balance of probabilities, I find it unlikely that Pettersson's injuries are the primary reason why he has been playing poorly since like February or whatever.​
And you recently commented to me the follow (which I called out as being a strawman):

The leap of logic to assume with 100% certainty to the point that you're 10000 words into it with me that the documented and well supported still ongoing chronic injury was absolutely not a factor just seems insane to me.

Would someone who has assumed with 100% certainty use the term "balance of probabilities" and "likely" in their position not to mentioned that I am referring to the "primary reason" .

This is a textbook strawman.

You have been consistent in your opinion that injuries have never been a significant factor in his play. You clearly doubted he was injured last year and when the news came out that he was injured, you continued to believe that it never had a significant impact on his play. The fact that I thought he was injured despite your Boudreau quote was literally beyond belief to you.

Again, you misread or misunderstood the "beyond belief" part as I didn't state what you seem to think I did.

Meanwhile my opinion hasn't changed, the only thing different is that everything I was saying that you were calling unsubstantiated has been substantiated. This is what I posted six months ago:


You called this statement "out of touch" and said you side with the Boudreau quote about it being all about confidence. Your position can be clearly inferred. But sure, complain about strawmen. Your opinion was very clear at the time.

I said it was "out of touch given the Boudreau interview" wherein Bourdreau speculated that it was confidence driven. I even said that at that time I didn't think I had speculated as to why he was slumping but that I would defer to Boudreau on this (i.e., him being a better source than what was at the time unsubstantiated speculation). I didn't conclude with certainty what the causes of Pettersson's struggles were and my general position has been pretty clear on this, and I've stated it to you many times.

No one would blame you for changing it given the new information that came out should you choose to do so but for some reason you'd rather continue this argument again and again instead.
Again, my argument has been remarkably consistent from before the injury was confirmed to after. And its generally been, at both those times:

on a balance of probabilities, I find it unlikely that Pettersson's injuries are the primary reason why he has been playing poorly since like February or whatever.​
 

thecupismine

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Apr 1, 2007
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One interesting thing to note is Debrusks speed bursts are noticeably down as well. In an interview with Harm, he mentioned learning his winger routes and how they’re different from Boston has noticeably slowed him down, and is something that should pick up as he rounds into form.

I bring this up because Petey has constantly looked lost out there this season, and is slow in processing the play which is making him a second behind most of the time. Not knowing where to go, or being confident in where to go, could easily explain the speed burst thing right now in the same way it does for Debrusk.
 
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Hodgy

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Feb 23, 2012
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I mean, it's not demonstrably false. I think the evidence is pretty significant that his skating is laboured. The NHL Edge data backs this up.
The question isn't whether he is skating slower now than he did last year, the question is whether he skated slow during his last slump where he didn't have an injury that would affect his skating.

Is your evidence....quotes from other HFboarders?
Ya, like a dozen or so first hand contemporaneous accounts of his skating during his last slump. Seems like reasonable evidence to me. Absent the NHL Edge data I am not sure what other evidence we are going to have?

Again, I searched my post history and I never actually mentioned Petey's skating during his previous slump. Maybe I'm crazy, or maybe everyone else was wrong.
It would be pretty arrogant to assume everyone else is wrong!

People were saying he was lazy then, and perhaps that was the reason for his poor skating previously. He does not appear to be playing "lazy" during this stretch.
Ya, I don't think he's being "lazy" in the traditional sense of the term.

It's not really. The argument from you is basically that this injury, which appears to be physically limiting, should not be physically limiting him to this extent. That was an accurate summary by the other poster.

It isn't an accurate summary at all. My position is that on a balance of probabilities I don't think that it is likely that Pettersson's injury is primarily or predominately responsible for his poor play. But I have acknowledged many times that I don't ultimately know. When posters have claimed or asserted that his injury is significant I brought up Pettersson's own comments on his injury which suggest he may not view it as significant. I have acknowledged that he could have been lying although feel that is far-fetched.

I'm not sure how you think my above position could in anyway be summarized by suggesting that I think that Pettersson's comments on his injury "absolutely negates that it effected his play going back to January when the injury started". Like, when I have ever thought that Pettersson's comments "absolutely" negated that the injury effected his play going back to January? Its a total fabrication.

 

PuckMunchkin

Very Nice, Very Evil!
Dec 13, 2006
13,031
10,753
Lapland
Slightly off topic here.


My spine is literally slightly crooked in a "S curve" (i honestly dont know how to describe it in english, sorry. I think it's scoliosis)
having seen a chiropractor a couple of years ago, it worked wonders for the likes of me.
Albeit a temporary fix, the relief I got was amazing and the face I made was making my wife jealous. I could breathe, walk and workout better instantly.

So longstory short,
it absolutely works.
Thats like saying someone who studied stabbing people on his own is a surgeon.

The only real example you need to know;

Chiro does not study how to read MRIs etc to make sure there are no, potentially lethal, contraindications.

 

JT Milker

Registered User
Mar 24, 2018
1,779
1,974
There has been a lot of unnecessary hand wringing about EP so far this season. His play has not been as good as the first 10 games last season (where he was the best player in the NHL), but there are a lot of obvious signs that he has just been unlucky so far:
  • The most obvious one is his shooting %. Career 16.6% shooter, currently at 6.7%.
    • This is a player that was ranked 2nd last year in shooting talent above average by Money Puck (behind Draisaitl).
    • 9.9% below his career average is completely unsustainable. Even if he is hurt or has regressed, he should still probably be converting at at least twice his current rate.
  • A related stat is the team's shooting percentage while he is on the ice. Career 13.1%, currently 10.5%.
    • 2.6% below average may not seem like much, but it is larger when you consider the volume of shots in play. Pettersson is typically on the ice for ~900 shots for in a full season, so this would be worth ~23 goals for fewer over a whole season.
  • This leads us into the second largest factor for his decreased production, IPP (Individual Points Percentage). Career is 68.1%, this year is 44.4%.
    • 23.7% below his average is huge. This basically means he is only accumulating 2/3 the usual number of points for every goal that is scored while he is on the ice.
      • Some of this might be from being less involved in the play, but a lot is just "bad luck" (being the player who makes the third pass for examples - no less important to the play in many cases). I have written a little last year about how the Canuck's PP changed formations such that EP was getting a lot more "third assists".
        • This is also evidenced by the drop in his secondary assist rate from a career average of 0.75/60 to 0.31/60 this year.
    • For comparison, his IPP value is the lowest amongst Canucks forwards (Hughes and Forbort have higher), and about half of what Garland, Sherwood and Blueger are putting up so far this season at >80%.
      • I suspect this stat alone is enough to explain why the perception is that these three are off to hot starts while EP is not. Again some of that is deserved, some is chance.
All of this adds up to a pretty significant lowering of points production based on factors which should regress in the coming weeks. He has gotten unlucky to the tune of about 1 goal via shooting percentage, 2 assists via IPP, and another assist via on ice shooting percentage. 8 points instead of 4 in 10 games is a dramatic difference (double) but still not up to his normal (PPG) production levels. Despite the factors above, there are still points to be concerned about:
  • He isn't shooting as much or from as dangerous of positions.
    • His shots/60 rates are career = 7.8, current = 4.7.
    • His ixG/60 (NST) rates are career = 0.93, current = 0.67.
  • His giveaway/60 rate is up. Career = 1.7, current = 2.5.
  • He is missing the net more. Career = 24%, current = 28%
  • His shots are being blocked more. Career = 24%, current = 33%
    • This adds up to 42% of unblocked shots miss this year versus 32% career.
Overall, it is clear that his recent run of poor form is largely the result of bad luck, but that has likely led to lower confidence and therefore an actual drop in the quality of his play. Still, if I were a betting person (and I am), I would be picking Pettersson up in every fantasy league I could manage. The positive shooting percentage regression is inevitable, and when that comes the return of confidence is likely to follow closely behind.

Unlike some have suggested, I don't think injury is at play here at all. His hits, hits taken and blocked shots numbers are all up this year, and he is clearly trying hard to engage himself in the play physically. If I were his coach I would probably advise him to calm his game down a little bit, play in the centre of the ice (where his world class anticipation allows him to pick off lots of pucks), let others focus on the puck retrieval and physical aspects of the game, and to endeavor to be the trigger man rather than passing to others. I suspect playing with Suter, and especially the return of Joshua will help in this regard.
Pettersson being the best player in the NHL at the start of 2023/24 is maybe the biggest re-writing of history I’ve ever seen on here. He wasn’t playing very well but we were scoring like 5 goals per game for a month or two and had 4 guys in the top 10 in scoring, then the entire team slowed down materially but he was still producing reasonably for another month or two, then he fell off an absolute cliff in February.
 
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CanucksSayEh

Registered User
Apr 6, 2012
5,958
2,304
Same time last year, this whole board insisted he was injured due to his brutal skating and usual gun shyness. Most blamed Myers lol. He at least had a bunch of points though.
 
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racerjoe

Registered User
Jun 3, 2012
12,404
6,242
Vancouver
Same time last year, this whole board insisted he was injured due to his brutal skating and usual gun shyness. Most blamed Myers lol. He at least had a bunch of points though.


This is just wrong… timeline wise off by like 3 months, and he actually was injured…
 

Peen

Rejoicing in a Benning-free world
Oct 6, 2013
31,556
27,856
Pettersson being the best player in the NHL at the start of 2023/24 is maybe the biggest re-writing of history I’ve ever seen on here. He wasn’t playing very well but we were scoring like 5 goals per game for a month or two and had 4 guys in the top 10 in scoring, then the entire team slowed down materially but he was still producing reasonably for another month or two, then he fell off an absolute cliff in February.
Yep. He was monstrous in the second half of 2022/2023 where he looked like a top ten player in the league.

23/24 was a mirage of points and meh play for months and then meh play and no points and now it's just straight up bad
 

kanucks25

Chris Tanev #1 Fan
Nov 29, 2013
7,269
4,335
Surrey, BC
Saw mixed reactions to his game last night but I thought he was good, thought he could have had 3 goals but he's completely lost his touch in the offensive zone.

His brain is still elite, which is why his defensive game hasn't really suffered and he still finds himself in the right spots offensively but once he gets there he either freezes, double-clutches or just messes up the play.
 

RobertKron

Registered User
Sep 1, 2007
16,220
9,853
This is just wrong… timeline wise off by like 3 months, and he actually was injured…

Pretty much out of the gate last season folks (myself included) thought that even though he was putting up points he looked like he was somewhat clearly playing with an injury due to how laboured his skating looked. IIRC, at some point Tocchet also implied he was banged up, there was some media speculation, and he had some maintenance days in like November or December or something last year, too.

I thought, and still think TBH, that he looked like a player with some kind of abdominal or back injury. I don't know that I necessarily think that's actually the case, but I definitely think he looks like it.

Beyond that, I also think it's a bit bizarre how little speculation there seems to be around it, and how much the media seems to be kind of treating this with kid gloves relative to what you might expect.
 
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