Player Discussion Elias Pettersson - A Forward Who Scores

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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Some players have pretty steep declines at various times in their careers and those declines aren't always explained by injury.

People really don't like to hear it, but Pettersson's patterns of engagement/disengagement over his career almost exactly mirror the career of PL Dubois, except Dubois is obviously a substantially inferior player when both are at their best.

And Dubois' very insightful/introspective interview from last summer is probably the closest window you're going to see into what Pettersson is going through/dealing with mentally right now.
 

Jay26

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Jul 13, 2022
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I hope he completely cuts off social media and I hope no one on this board is a part of these idiots


That's effing deplorable. I highly doubt it's anyone here.

Please Petey, just get off social media. I myself am just about done and I'm not even famous or a public figure. Only hanging on to Twitter to stay a bit connected. All other platforms deleted a looooong time ago. So useless and toxic.
 
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Jay26

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Oh I agree that he deserves criticism without a doubt, but it's one thing to say "Oh he needs to play better" , than saying "Maybe he should jump off a bridge and kill himself". The problems started well before the criticism but we have no clue what is happening with this player. If it's mental issues it's best he stays away from the internet.

Something is definitely wrong you're right, but fans saying go kill yourself is a little harsh. Maybe a trade is necessary for all sides involved.
"a little harsh" :laugh::laugh:

I know you mean well but I had to laugh at that.
 

MS

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Pro athletes simply should not have social media that is public-facing or public-accessible and it's insane to me that teams and agents don't make sure this doesn't happen. Nothing good ever comes from it. 50% of it is protecting the athlete from stuff like this from idiot fans and 50% is protecting the player from damaging his career by doing/posting something stupid.

This is nothing, though, compared to European soccer and what happens if you're a black player in particular who happens to make a mistake.
 

pitseleh

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Kuzmenko wasn't injured and had a similar decline at a pretty similar time.

Some players have pretty steep declines at various times in their careers and those declines aren't always explained by injury.
Did he? He was traded about two weeks after Pettersson is reported to have had tendinitis symptoms flare up. He’s playing at a 70 point pace with Calgary since being traded.

Of course declines can be something other than injury related, but when a player starts scoring at like half his normal pace mid-season at the exact same time he is said to have had an injury, random / age related decline doesn’t seem likely.
 

Lat

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Oct 12, 2005
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Pro athletes simply should not have social media that is public-facing or public-accessible and it's insane to me that teams and agents don't make sure this doesn't happen. Nothing good ever comes from it. 50% of it is protecting the athlete from stuff like this from idiot fans and 50% is protecting the player from damaging his career by doing/posting something stupid.

This is nothing, though, compared to European soccer and what happens if you're a black player in particular who happens to make a mistake.
Taking a quick glance at Pettersson's Instagram, the first couple posts are essentially advertising for his sponsors. Somebody of his public visibility should really be hiring a social media consultant to be making the posts on his behalf (which means he shouldn't really be reading any comments anyhow).
 

Hodgy

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Did he? He was traded about two weeks after Pettersson is reported to have had tendinitis symptoms flare up. He’s playing at a 70 point pace with Calgary since being traded.
I may have used "pretty similar time" too liberally, but my point was that we had just seen Kuzmenko have a very similar decline that started in October of 2023 whereas Pettersson's started in February of 2024.

Of course declines can be something other than injury related, but when a player starts scoring at like half his normal pace mid-season at the exact same time he is said to have had an injury, random / age related decline doesn’t seem likely.
It really comes back to the severity of the injury. I think NHL players play through minor nagging injuries routinely, and we just never hear about it. And if Pettersson continued on, or even just saw a 20% decline in scoring, or whatever, I doubt we ever even hear about his patellar tendinitis.

But I do agree that the timing of his injury and the start of his slump shouldn't be ignored completely.
 

Slapshot_11

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Aug 30, 2006
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If we are out of the playoffs by trade deadline and ep is still playing like this its time for a change for both parties
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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Again, the skating being down doesn't tell you whether it's down because he's hurt or it's down because he's not competing and maxing himself out.

And based on the data we have, it looks like his skating was also way down when he had a similar period of play in 21-22, when there was absolutely nothing wrong with his knee.
 

mriswith

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Oct 12, 2011
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Hog was back on the 4th line yesterday :popcorn:

My point was never about the actual medical staff or physical injury to Pettersson. My point was that if Pettersson had a significant injury, or one that was impacting his play, then I would have expected management to have very different public messaging, sort of like what we saw for Miller. Instead, they've essentially treated the injury as very minor and not used it as an excuse at all, and point to different reasons, like confidence, for Pettersson's struggles. This is what I meant about the team "protecting him", from a PR perspective, and not from a medical perspective.
My point is that appealing to mgmt on anything related to how they're handling an injured player doesn't work after how bad Mik was bungled. Anything.

I was just paraphrasing what Pettersson said in his interview. You should watch the interview if you haven't already.
I did, at least that part of the clip. Saying "I'm fine" does not negate talking about how he has an ongoing, nagging, chronic injury that he worked around all summer and still is working around.

I mean, this just isn't true. A nagging or chronic injury can be extremely minor, and not significant at all.
I shouldn't even have to argue this but the fact that Pettersson himself doesn't even think the nagging injury is significant should be enough for you to totally abandon this line of thought. Again, during training camp Pettersson said his knee was fine and that he had no pain. That is not how anyone would describe a significant injury.
He had to work around it in the offseason and still has to work around it. That is, by definition, significant.

Referencing that clip as proof that EP thinks he's fine is like referencing Hronek saying he wasn't injured in the playoffs.
I don't really want to get sidetracked into a debate about Garland's consistency but Garland has scored 52, 46 and 47 points in Vancouver. But anyway, my point isn't that point production, whether total or even strength, won't change with deployment and linemates. I have never disputed this and I think the ansawer is pretty obvious. My point is that Garland has never looked, relatively speaking, anywhere as bad as Pettersson has looked during his slump even during his second year in Vancouver, and I think in that sense, he's actually been quite consistent. Again, almost all of the criticism surrounding him was a result of his cap hit during the flat cap era and not because people thought he was inherently "bad" or looked bad.

Look you're just wrong on Garland. He has not been consistent since getting here. His performance was massively different in his first vs second season and it's born out in the ES points plus the eye test.

He was carrying the second line and scoring like a 9m borderline star player when he arrived until Green beat him down, and it took about around 1.5 years to get his mojo back.

I brought him into this because he's a perfect example of how getting f***ed around on the ice can transfer into a long term slump and confidence problems, even in a vet, even in a vet whose calling card is heart and drive and all that good stuff.

Again, my point is that getting screwed around on the ice can directly cause a slump that doesn't instantly go away when you get put back in the correct role/line/ice time. We saw this over and over and over again with Green.

You obviously have no idea and can't honestly think you are in a position to rule confidence, or other mental health issues, out.
I am absolutely ruling confidence out as an initial cause. I'm sure it's a problem now, and I'm sure at some point last season it was a problem, but it didn't start the fire.

You don't randomly get your confidence gutted as a first order effect in the middle of a career season in a contract year. Something causes that first.

The leap of logic to assume with 100% certainty to the point that you're 10000 words into it with me that the documented and well supported still ongoing chronic injury was absolutely not a factor just seems insane to me. Same with thinking that a random confidence drop out of nowhere with no reason for it to start during a career year, at the exact same time as the reported injury, is somehow more plausible than the reported injury.

Could it be that you're just dug in after committing to him not being injured during the playoffs and literally nothing that comes out at this point can change your mind? What would change your mind that his injury was significant?

I don't disagree with you generally on this point, but I think you are 100% wrong in these circumstances as Pettersson has literally said he has no pain in his knee and that his knee is fine. You are making this injury into something that isn't even consistent with Pettersson's own description of the injury. Its bizarre.
When he says he has a nagging injury that he worked around in summer and is still working around it, saying "but im fine" does not negate that he has a nagging injury that he worked around in summer, is still working around, and is at this point a chronic injury.

The thing is when Pettersson played like crap the first half of 21/22, he said he was fine at the beginning of the season then it came out he was taping his wrist because it was still injured. So this wouldn’t be the first time.
This is why I've never been completely convinced that the wrist injury went away. At one point the wrist had been a problem for at least 1.5 years, maybe more, I can't quite remember. Then he heated up in 2022 and I shelved the idea.
 

credulous

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Nov 18, 2021
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And Dubois' very insightful/introspective interview from last summer is probably the closest window you're going to see into what Pettersson is going through/dealing with mentally right now.

dubois' issue was mostly coaching, imo. especially if you take him at his word
 

pitseleh

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Jul 30, 2005
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I may have used "pretty similar time" too liberally, but my point was that we had just seen Kuzmenko have a very similar decline that started in October of 2023 whereas Pettersson's started in February of 2024.

The thing is, I’m not sure he did. He and Pettersson has a 57% CF% rate when together last year. What fell off were Kuzmenko’s SH%, on ice SH%, and IPP, after all three were high the year prior.

Now that he has settled into numbers that are closer to his career average, he’s unsurprisingly a bit more than halfway between his 2022/23 and first half of 2024/24 self.


It really comes back to the severity of the injury. I think NHL players play through minor nagging injuries routinely, and we just never hear about it. And if Pettersson continued on, or even just saw a 20% decline in scoring, or whatever, I doubt we ever even hear about his patellar tendinitis.

But I do agree that the timing of his injury and the start of his slump shouldn't be ignored completely.
Fully agree here. The tendinitis isn’t sufficient to explain his fall off in play. There’s other problems that have creeped in that leave you thinking WTF is he doing. But the fact that he looks and is slower on the ice means he’s going to have to figure it out to get some confidence instead of relying on his physical tools to bust his slump.
 

pitseleh

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Jul 30, 2005
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Did you look at percentiles? Garland’s right around his career norms. Not sure you can trust the absolute numbers but the relative numbers should be better year over year.
Again, the skating being down doesn't tell you whether it's down because he's hurt or it's down because he's not competing and maxing himself out.

And based on the data we have, it looks like his skating was also way down when he had a similar period of play in 21-22, when there was absolutely nothing wrong with his knee.
Where are you getting that from? He was 75th percentile in 22+ mph bursts and 84th in 20-22mph bursts in 21/22, which is pretty consistent with 22/23 and 23/24. This year is a clear outlier.
 

Vector

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Did you look at percentiles? Garland’s right around his career norms. Not sure you can trust the absolute numbers but the relative numbers should be better year over year.

I did and I am just comparing from last season to this season. There’s not enough data from this year to actually come to any real conclusion. Garland is slower to start this season compared to last season according to NHL Edge but no one would declare he’s injured.

I don’t see the NHL edge data from this season as proof that he’s injured. It matches the eye test and I personally believe he’s dealing with something but people are taking this an extracting it out too far.
 
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pitseleh

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I did and I am just comparing from last season to this season. There’s not enough data from this year to actually come to any real conclusion. Garland is slower to start this season compared to last season according to NHL Edge but no one would declare he’s injured.

I don’t see the NHL edge data from this season as proof that he’s injured. It matches the eye test and I personally believe he’s dealing with something but people are taking this an extracting it out too far.
Yeah, definitely agree the data is far from determinative. But Pettersson’s drop in 20-22 mph bursts compared to a couple years ago is more than double Garland’s relative to league average, so it is a more meaningful change despite the small sample. Skating speed isn’t tied to luck in the same way as, say, SH% so there also should be more to be gleaned from limited data than there otherwise would be.
 
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LordBacon

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True. One of my worst takes is that people need to be bullied more. Need more incel troll losers getting stuffed into lockers.
Just like the good old days where they take my lunch money

On one had yes.

On the other hand... its no longer okay to hit your wife and kids. So you win some you lose some..?
I am a bad boi so I tell my wife to spank me instead
 

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