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Speculation: Elephant in the room: Is McDavid going to be the biggest UFA ever in 2026?

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Connor McConnor said:
Again, seems like your brain doesn't work. "Lottery team" without him lmao. All the other playoff teams subtracting 12m off their roster would not have been better. But hey, you say so!
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The fact you need to resort to insults to make your point just means you're emotional and know there's truth to what I'm saying. Edmonton has done an awful job, and even this offseason yet again bungled it.
 
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Luigi Lemieux said:
The fact you need to resort to insults to make your point just means you're emotional and know there's truth to what I'm saying. Edmonton has done an awful job, and even this offseason yet again bungled it.
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Questioning my reading comprehension isn't considering an insult but I'm the one getting emotional lmao. You are speaking in pure hypotheticals as if they are considered fact. We will see how this season plays out. Edmonton has some of the best advanced analytics in the league and have the cap space to acquire a top 4D at the deadline. To think they aren't pacing themselves this year considering how the other top competitors in the West are doing makes no sense.
 
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banks said:
What else is she supposed to say? "forget this, we're out"?

I'm sure she's aware that other teams also have fans that travel to away games.
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Well she would probably say nothing at all because no one is expecting her to - or just post something simple like" what a run"
 
Luigi Lemieux said:
Probably about half the league if not more would be better with Mcdavid than Edmonton is.
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This is absolute hogwash. There might be 3-6 teams in the league that could clear $15M and still say they have a better core for McD to join than the Oilers, but not many.

After making space for McD, how many would still have:
  • Two recent 100 point guys
  • Two recent 50 goal guys
  • Four other recent 30 goal guys
  • A point-per-game defenseman (and don't even start, he has a 55% EV goal-share WITHOUT McD or Drai on the ice)
  • Two other 40+ point defensemen who have 60% EV goal-share
The Oilers are not a perfect team, obviously... but they've managed (finally) to assemble some forward depth. They are lacking a top-4 RD, a #6 RD, a 1B goalie and a little bit more jam on their 4th line... but otherwise have a pretty solid lineup that is effectively $5M below the cap (Kane's space is not being used and he's obviously not playing).

This is a team that can still add significant salary at the deadline AND get Kane back in the lineup.

Let's look at the top 5 teams in the league last year and what they'd have to do to fit in McD (the presumption here, which is likely accurate, is that the rising cap will be used up resigning other RFAs that they have, so they have to pull salary from prime/aging members of the roster):
1) Rangers: Would need to lose Panarin + one of Lindgren/Kreider/Trochek/Chytil/Lafreniere, or Fox + two of the previous list.
2) Dallas: Benn retires and they lose one of Robertson/Marchment/Stankhoven, who are all up for contract in McD's 1st season with the team
3) Carolina: Orlov, Burns & Fast all leave/retire and are replaced at league min. Top4 D becomes: Slavin, Walker, Gotisbehere & Chatfield
4) Winnipeg: they let Kyle Connor and Pionk walk and Pionk is replaced at league min.
5) Florida: Not sure they could do it reasonably... Bennett walks, Ekblad walks and they still need to find $4M

The point is, anyone could or would do it... but fitting in a $16M McDavid decimates your depth, so your criticism of Edmonton doesn't pass the logic test.

If you think it does... show me a roster that is objectively better than Edmonton's AFTER they've set aside $16M for McD.
 
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bucks_oil said:
This is absolute hogwash. There might be 3-6 teams in the league that could clear $15M and still say they have a better core for McD to join than the Oilers, but not many.

After making space for McD, how many would still have:
  • Two recent 100 point guys
  • Two recent 50 goal guys
  • Four other recent 30 goal guys
  • A point-per-game defenseman (and don't even start, he has a 55% EV goal-share WITHOUT McD or Drai on the ice)
  • Two other 40+ point defensemen who have 60% EV goal-share
The Oilers are not a perfect team, obviously... but they've managed (finally) to assemble some forward depth. They are lacking a top-4 RD, a #6 RD, a 1B goalie and a little bit more jam on their 4th line... but otherwise have a pretty solid lineup that is effectively $5M below the cap (Kane's space is not being used and he's obviously not playing).

This is a team that can still add significant salary at the deadline AND get Kane back in the lineup.

Let's look at the top 5 teams in the league last year and what they'd have to do to fit in McD (the presumption here, which is likely accurate, is that the rising cap will be used up resigning other RFAs that they have, so they have to pull salary from prime/aging members of the roster):
1) Rangers: Would need to lose Panarin + one of Lindgren/Kreider/Trochek/Chytil/Lafreniere, or Fox + two of the previous list.
2) Dallas: Benn retires and they lose one of Robertson/Marchment/Stankhoven, who are all up for contract in McD's 1st season with the team
3) Carolina: Orlov, Burns & Fast all leave/retire and are replaced at league min. Top4 D becomes: Slavin, Walker, Gotisbehere & Chatfield
4) Winnipeg: they let Kyle Connor and Pionk walk and Pionk is replaced at league min.
5) Florida: Not sure they could do it reasonably... Bennett walks, Ekblad walks and they still need to find $4M

The point is, anyone could or would do it... but fitting in a $16M McDavid decimates your depth, so your criticism of Edmonton doesn't pass the logic test.

If you think it does... show me a roster that is objectively better than Edmonton's AFTER they've set aside $16M for McD.
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Minnesota. They have 14 million in dead cap right now but they're #1 in the league.
 
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Luigi Lemieux said:
The fact you need to resort to insults to make your point just means you're emotional and know there's truth to what I'm saying. Edmonton has done an awful job, and even this offseason yet again bungled it.
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How did they bungle it this offseason? Jeff Skinner? Ok, I'll grant you that one (noting you won your last two cups with Kessel, so maybe, just maybe Skinner can still contribute).

But after that? Bungled?
Henrique at $3M? Pretty good.
Arvidsson at $4M? Pretty good.
Kane @ $5M out of the lineup, but they are still accruing deadline space? Pretty good.
Trading no-brain McLeod for Savoie who still has 3 years of ELC? I still like that trade. Let's wait and see.
Podkolzin, Brown, Janmark, Perry all at near league minimum? Pretty good.
Auditioning Emberson, Dermott & Brown all at "fully buriable" contracts? Ok, I think we see how this will play out, but... no real harm.
Having $5M in projected cap space at the deadline? AWESOME!
Being in a playoff spot (higher than we were this time last year) with Kane, Arvidsson & Hyman all out of the lineup for significant time? Pretty good.

Maybe you are referencing losing our young players in Broberg & Holloway? That kinda sucked, but at $6.6M they are no longer "cheap young players" that are required to fill out a contending roster. I'd much rather keep the cap space and spend it on vet(s) at the deadline.
 
I think he stays with Edmonton.

Thing is I am unsure if it will be 8 years. I can definitely see him think of doing a 3 or 4 year deal to secure a 8 year deal with the cap even higher.

Look at Matthews 2 contracts. Shorter term
 
Luigi Lemieux said:
Minnesota. They have 14 million in dead cap right now but they're #1 in the league.
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Ok, I'll play along.

Half of that cap space is eaten up next year by Faber extension.

They also have the league's leading scorer and one of the leading goalies both entering UFA between now and McDavid. If Kaprizov and Gustavsson are making a combined $12.75M now, how much are they (or an alternate #1 goalie) going to make in two seasons?

Does Kaprizov get Draisaitl money in two years? I think he does!

What about Gustavsson, does he get a Swayman/Ullmark level deal? With inflation, it's hard to argue against it right?

So all that dead cap is entirely gone!

The cap may rise by about $10M before 2026, but that's still not enough for McD. So who are you going to trim from the roster? You need to pick two other guys making ~$5M each and replace them with league min people.

It's not so easy... that's why it took Edmonton years (with slowly rising cap) to build a roster around McD. You guys experienced some of the same with the big gap between Crosby/Malkin cup 1 and cups 2 & 3, but that was WITH a rising cap. Oilers have been dealing with a covid flat cap during most of McDrai's era.
 
KrisLetAngry said:
I think he stays with Edmonton.

Thing is I am unsure if it will be 8 years. I can definitely see him think of doing a 3 or 4 year deal to secure a 8 year deal with the cap even higher.

Look at Matthews 2 contracts. Shorter term
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McDavid is almost an anti Gretzky, as he seems more nerdy in his approach. Gretzky became too big and wanted that Hollywood lifestyle after a decade with his wife who was an actress, while Connors girl is more down to earth and seems reserved. 97 isn't going anywhere. He's taking over every Gretzky Oiler record for most goals, assists and points with one team. I think he has his eyes set on the cup and the records.
 
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Barring a 1st round embarrassment this post season where everyone but McDavid craps the bed and he’s just morally defeated, I’d be completely shocked if he doesn’t re-sign
 
He seems to like Edmonton so I have a hard time seeing him explore the market but if you're Connor, why wouldn't you? It's a unique situation in that every team in the league will wait for you to make a decision. Connor hitting FA, in my opinion would freeze the free agency market while teams wait to see what he does.

He'll have complete control. He would be wasting an opportunity to not at least look and consider other options. The Oil will wait and give him time if he decides he wants that 8th year bad enough.
 
McFlash97 said:
McDavid is almost an anti Gretzky, as he seems more nerdy in his approach. Gretzky became too big and wanted that Hollywood lifestyle after a decade with his wife who was an actress, while Connors girl is more down to earth and seems reserved. 97 isn't going anywhere. He's taking over every Gretzky Oiler record for most goals, assists and points with one team. I think he has his eyes set on the cup and the records.
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Signing for 3 or 4 years doesn't mean he is leaving afterwards. Just going for shorter term to max earnings.

Again Matthews.
 
McFlash97 said:
Worry about life after Crosby bro. Really. Its going to a deep dark decade for the Penguins.
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This thread isn't about the penguins. I'm a hockey fan first and enjoy discussion on all teams. Besides, pens are like 40 years old and have already done their winning so who cares. They were the best team of the era, nothing to feel bad about.
 
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Artemi Panarin said:
IBH.gif
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There's no denying what a shxxxx job the management did in the off-season. No arguments from me there, however let the season play out. The cap space as a result from losing those players might net the Oilers the final piece in March. Who knows yet.
 
Draisaitl just resigned, no? One bright summer day in 2025 or 2026, McDavid will resign with the Oilers too. Then I will remember this thread and laugh.

:)
 
Lol. So many trash teams in this thread acting like they could provide a better chance at a Cup then the team that just went to Game 7 of the SCFs.

I’m sorry do you have generational playoff producers on your team like Draisaitl and Bouchard? No? Then keep dreaming, cause that’s all it is, a dream.

94 Oil Drops said:
Draisaitl just resigned, no? One bright summer day in 2025 or 2026, McDavid will resign with the Oilers too. Then I will remember this thread and laugh.

:)
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Heck why wait. Right now you can have a good laugh at the last 500 McDavid will ask for a trade out of Edmonton threads.
 
Doubt McDavid is leaving. Biggest issue for them is going to be lack of cap space and expected nothing value to come out of the prospect pool. In 5 years likely looking at 33 year old Draisaitl, 32 year old McDavid and bums. Bouchard is their only other core piece that is not old already, who will need a big raise himself and while he's good for what he is, you can't really expect him to suddenly be someone he isn't. So I am not particularly bullish on Edmonton's future.

Back in Crosby's heyday, you could stick a bunch of extra years on a contract and drive down the AAV, which you can't do with 8 year max length. The Oilers already rely on their top 2 forwards more than most teams, but they're going to have to do so even more.
 
Lion Hound said:
Hoping McDavid soft-tampers his way onto the Rangers roster in 26.
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I don’t blame ya. The Rags only chance of a Cup is importing Oilers superstars like in 94. A godsend by the way, as outside of that one Oilers powered Cup, the Rags would have the longest championship drought in NHL history.
 
WarriorofTime said:
Doubt McDavid is leaving. Biggest issue for them is going to be lack of cap space and expected nothing value to come out of the prospect pool. In 5 years likely looking at 33 year old Draisaitl, 32 year old McDavid and bums. Bouchard is their only other core piece that is not old already, who will need a big raise himself and while he's good for what he is, you can't really expect him to suddenly be someone he isn't. So I am not particularly bullish on Edmonton's future.

Back in Crosby's heyday, you could stick a bunch of extra years on a contract and drive down the AAV, which you can't do with 8 year max length. The Oilers already rely on their top 2 forwards more than most teams, but they're going to have to do so even more.
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Lol you saying this like the cap won't be 110 million by then.
 
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