Speculation: Elephant in the room: Is McDavid going to be the biggest UFA ever in 2026?

[Fishy McScales]

No, if McDavid signs for the max it means the "bar" for everyone moves up. He could sign the max in Edmonton and the same thing applies. I could have been way more specific here haha.

Sigh. Here we go again. Another poster not understanding the economics of the salary cap era.

The pot for salaries is fixed and based on revenue. If one player takes a high salary, another player gets less.

For this reason, there is no intrinsic incentive for the PA to ask an individual player to take more.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Sigh. Here we go again. Another poster not understanding the economics of the salary cap era.

The pot for salaries is fixed and based on revenue. If one player takes a high salary, another player gets less.

For this reason, there is no intrinsic incentive for the PA to ask an individual player to take more.

Oh downstream it obviously squeezes the bottom guys, but if McDavid signed for $16M it means the next tier of guys is signing for $15M, etc, etc. End of the day, the bottom players were squeezed when the cap was the cap was lower, they are getting squeezed now, and will get squeezed when it's $110M.

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Not as a hockey player.

 

[Rorschach]

Things can change. For example, with Fox and Shesterkin in NYR, if they signed McDavid, they could trade a bunch of stuff to the Oilers in an unbalanced salary trade where NYR gives up way more salary than the acquired salary for Draisaitl.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If he gets to UFA status, he will be the biggest UFA ever. He wants to win though, and how many contenders out there are going to have the space to sign him? He just wants to win, and he is on a team now that was one game away from winning the cup, so moving somewhere else might hurt his ability to win compared to where he is now.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

If he gets to UFA status, he will be the biggest UFA ever. He wants to win though, and how many contenders out there are going to have the space to sign him? He just wants to win, and he is on a team now that was one game away from winning the cup, so moving somewhere else might hurt his ability to win compared to where he is now.

I honestly don't think he ever leaves Edmonton realistically, but if he ever had a chance to make it to UFA every team in the league would move the sun and moon to get him.

 

[Fishy McScales]

Oh downstream it obviously squeezes the bottom guys, but if McDavid signed for $16M it means the next tier of guys is signing for $15M, etc, etc. End of the day, the bottom players were squeezed when the cap was the cap was lower, they are getting squeezed now, and will get squeezed when it's $110M.

I still don't understand how this means the PA wants McDavid to squeeze the Oilers?

 

[HockeyVirus]

If he gets to UFA status, he will be the biggest UFA ever. He wants to win though, and how many contenders out there are going to have the space to sign him? He just wants to win, and he is on a team now that was one game away from winning the cup, so moving somewhere else might hurt his ability to win compared to where he is now.

If he wants to win he won't focus on being the highest paid player ever. I think he is more saying he would rather take a discount elsewhere with a chance to win than sign for 20/yr in Edmonton if he thought they wouldn't get anywhere

 

[StuckOutHere]

I still don't understand how this means the PA wants McDavid to squeeze the Oilers?

Because his contract sets and/or will set the market for the most elite players in the league. Though there is a contract max it has almost never been in play as a real bar for agents/players. McDavid getting the max means that the next time the truly elite players are due for contracts they will use his hypothetical max or near-max contract as the measure of their value (likely as a percentage as the cap increases). If those salaries go up, the PA is happy because it sets higher bars for things like arbitration, qualifying offers, etc as well.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If he wants to win he won't focus on being the highest paid player ever. I think he is more saying he would rather take a discount elsewhere with a chance to win than sign for 20/yr in Edmonton if he thought they wouldn't get anywhere

I won't hold my breath waiting for him to take a big pay cut. This is his last prime contract, and despite what they said publicly, he didn't really take a discount last time around. And he shouldn't have to, if management can do their job, they can contend even if he is making a boatload of money. He hasn't hinted once that he would take lower somewhere else to win. He has said all he cares about is winning. That doesn't mean he is looking elsewhere. It also doesn't mean he isn't, but we know that he will have discussed it with Draisaitl - Leon wouldn't have extended if he knew Connor was leaving, because he wants to win too. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it sure helps.

I still don't understand how this means the PA wants McDavid to squeeze the Oilers?

The PA wants all players to sign for as much as possible, so the owners can't come back later and suggest less money go to the players in future CBA's based off of the star players taking xx amount.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I honestly don't think he ever leaves Edmonton realistically, but if he ever had a chance to make it to UFA every team in the league would move the sun and moon to get him.

They would, except a lot of those teams have their big money locked into NTC's and whatnot. It just makes for some extra hurdles for some teams.

 

[TheNumber4]

They would, except a lot of those teams have their big money locked into NTC's and whatnot. It just makes for some extra hurdles for some teams.

And those teams suck ass compared to the team McDavid helped build in Edmonton.

 

[Fishy McScales]

Because his contract sets and/or will set the market for the most elite players in the league. Though there is a contract max it has almost never been in play as a real bar for agents/players. McDavid getting the max means that the next time the truly elite players are due for contracts they will use his hypothetical max or near-max contract as the measure of their value (likely as a percentage as the cap increases). If those salaries go up, the PA is happy because it sets higher bars for things like arbitration, qualifying offers, etc as well.

You're still not getting it. It's a fixed pot. The PA doesn't get more or less because McDavid or anyone else takes more or less. That's not how it works.

 

[bucks_oil]

Because his contract sets and/or will set the market for the most elite players in the league. Though there is a contract max it has almost never been in play as a real bar for agents/players. McDavid getting the max means that the next time the truly elite players are due for contracts they will use his hypothetical max or near-max contract as the measure of their value (likely as a percentage as the cap increases). If those salaries go up, the PA is happy because it sets higher bars for things like arbitration, qualifying offers, etc as well.

But what incentive does the PA have that McDavid get's more of the fixed pool of $$$ than Derek Ryan? All of the money will be spent on players that they represent. The PA's dues/fees etc will not change.

The PA wants all players to sign for as much as possible, so the owners can't come back later and suggest less money go to the players in future CBA's based off of the star players taking xx amount.

Obviously I'm not in the room, but I don't see how owners would use that as an argument... how does it logically even flow? "Oh well the top player(s) in the league only make X, so surely we don't need to increase the players' revenue percentage from 50% to 52%."

If anything, the league would probably rather top-end salaries are constrained a bit for the simple fact that it's not the entry level players that get squeezed... there is always another hungry NHL-wannabe ready to take league min and fill out a roster. The players that get squeezed are the aging stars... Thortons, Marleaus, Getzlafs... who have banked plenty of coin and when the salary starts to get squeezed... it's no longer worth the risk to their health/time away from family. The league would obviously love the household names to stick around as long as possible because they are: a) still talented, b) drive gate revenues still and c) nostalgia.

In any case... I suspect the negotiations around revenue sharing are entirely based on established metrics from other leagues. NHL is 50%, NBA is 49%, NFL is 47%... hard to see these numbers moving too much. So the bigger negotiating points are probably around player mobility, player autonomy, and initiatives to grow the pie.

You're still not getting it. It's a fixed pot. The PA doesn't get more or less because McDavid or anyone else takes more or less. That's not how it works.

Exactly.