Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Adam da bomb]

Ice time, points, all those stats point to Pionk being a #2 unless you believe Samberg is going to carry any offense. I guess the same question could be asked about Ehlers...is he a 2nd line winger or is Lowry's line that gets the hardest matchups the #2 line?

I like Ehlers. He's fun to watch. I was even commenting in how he will get closer to the net then he ever did in his career, watching this game with my brother. But I don't think he's the catalyst. More like a nice secondary piece, like a Nylander. It's possible the Jets keep both him and Connor, unlikely but possible.

I just think that these boards undervalue the Lowry and Pionk types because they don't value the hard minutes out on the ice.

Interesting you value the Lowry type which is closer to Berg than a Pionk who is closer to an Ehlers.
I don't think Berg will carry the offense, but, I'm traditional in thinking that D's main job is to keep the puck out, which I think Berg is better at than Pionk.

 

[KingBogo]

Everyone thought Scheifele and Helly were gone too. I am really not worried about Ehlers, i think he gets signed by Chevy. If Ehlers has told Chevy he wants out i guarantee Chevy won't lose him for nothing.

I think if Ehlers wanted out he would have been traded in the offseason. My guess is there were some uncertainties with injuries and all sides agreed to give Nic the first half of the season to cement his value. I’ve argued many times I expect Ehlers to re-sign well before the TDL.

 

[voyageur]

Interesting you value the Lowry type which is closer to Berg than a Pionk who is closer to an Ehlers.
I don't think Berg will carry the offense, but, I'm traditional in thinking that D's main job is to keep the puck out, which I think Berg is better at than Pionk.

Part of that is transitioning from defense to offense. Which is what Pionk was doing so well early in the season. Listen to any of his d partners talk and they talk about the communication he provides them with on the ice. Both Samberg and Fleury have talked about it. This tells you of some kind of leadership. Which should have some value in the big picture.

I'd be more inclined to say that Lowry is a 2nd line player than Samberg is a #2 d man because of the offensive results coupled with the defensive ones.

 

[voyageur]

I'd have to think Chevy is chewing on this dilemma as we speak.
It gets you thinking - maybe this is why Ville is slotting in on his off wing.
I'm just spit ballin' here because I'm bored - if they were to let Pionk walk, they need to replace him and hoping they can find a top 4 RHD via the open market is a long shot.
Ehlers drives that second line - and probably will continue to drive it even if we pick up another center - and he's good at it.

You have to wonder if Chevy already knows the future by his drafts. He drafts Samberg and finally gets him to sign by bringing in a mentor and someone he knows personally in a trade that the boards went insane about. When he sees Sammy reaching his full potential he let's Dillon walk. He drafts forward heavy for years. Why? Probably because he sees a timeline when he is going to lose forwards. He drafted one quality d-man in 4 drafts, and for a long time people thought it was to replace Pionk, but it may be in fact to replace De Melo as a top pairing d-man. Because life without Pionk completely hinges on Salomonsson being a stud that can play over 20 minutes a night consistently. If he doesn't the team has no options to replace those minutes. Life without Ehlers creates opportunities for young players like Chibrikov or Lambert or Barlow. More than one option.

Perfetti moving into the middle would make Ehlers more sustainable long term without blocking a development path for prospects so that's one to watch.

 

[Adam da bomb]

You have to wonder if Chevy already knows the future by his drafts. He drafts Samberg and finally gets him to sign by bringing in a mentor and someone he knows personally in a trade that the boards went insane about. When he sees Sammy reaching his full potential he let's Dillon walk. He drafts forward heavy for years. Why? Probably because he sees a timeline when he is going to lose forwards. He drafted one quality d-man in 4 drafts, and for a long time people thought it was to replace Pionk, but it may be in fact to replace De Melo as a top pairing d-man. Because life without Pionk completely hinges on Salomonsson being a stud that can play over 20 minutes a night consistently. If he doesn't the team has no options to replace those minutes. Life without Ehlers creates opportunities for young players like Chibrikov or Lambert or Barlow. More than one option.

Perfetti moving into the middle would make Ehlers more sustainable long term without blocking a development path for prospects so that's one to watch.

I mean we never drafted as high as Ehlers again.

 

[Flair Hay]

I'm sorry but people who think this team will be better without Pionk are out to lunch. All the Ehlers hype after a 3 point night. But how did that comeback goal happen? That was Pionk leading the rush putting the puck behind the Sens net that started that play. Take away his work on the PK that game and tell me that's easily replaceable. 22 minutes a night is a lot of ice time to replace.

I'm not hyping him after a 3 point night, and you know that.

 

[TS Quint]

Yup anyone thinking that he will sign for anything less that 8 by the Jets is wishful thinking. On the open market is will start at 9 and who knows where it goes

Let someone else make that mistake.

 

[Whileee]

There was an interesting short segment with Bowness about a week ago (on SN I think). He had a few interesting comments about Ehlers. As I recall, a few main points...

Ehlers wants to be a difference maker and thinks he can be.

Ehlers wants to play in important roles with the best players.

Ehlers can get frustrated when he's not used in top-end roles.

Based on the Jets' roster now, Ehlers is pretty much cemented into that 2/3 line role with Perfetti and Namestnikov. He's not going to play on the top line, and will always be behind Connor. He is getting PP1 usage this season.

But in the end, Bowness kind of indicated that Ehlers has been disgruntled by his usage / role. That might be significant in terms of his decision about re-signing. But I also think the Jets don't seem him as one of their top core players. That's why I could see the Jets trading him to restructure their roster this season. The problem is going to be finding a trade partner that will give enough value. I wonder if there might be a contending team that would give enough value in futures that the Jets could flip for a RHD or C. Or maybe there's a sign and trade option that the Jets could stir up.

As much as I think the Jets are "all in" this season, I have some difficulty thinking they would let Ehlers walk as a UFA with nothing in return, and I'm not sure that either side will be super keen on a contract extension.

Having said that, Chevy's surprised before, and Ehlers might like the certainty of playing for a good franchise in a market that appreciates him. I noticed his wry smile on the big screen when there was a big cheer for him after his goal last night.

 

[bustamente]

Again an unpopular take but letting Nik walk to free agency would be a massive mistake for this organization, either re sign him or move him the sooner the better. I could be proven wrong and would be glad about it but I think he has already made up his mind and he will test the market. I also think that Chevy and Co. know this.

 

[Adam da bomb]

There was an interesting short segment with Bowness about a week ago (on SN I think). He had a few interesting comments about Ehlers. As I recall, a few main points...

Ehlers wants to be a difference maker and thinks he can be.

Ehlers wants to play in important roles with the best players.

Ehlers can get frustrated when he's not used in top-end roles.

Based on the Jets' roster now, Ehlers is pretty much cemented into that 2/3 line role with Perfetti and Namestnikov. He's not going to play on the top line, and will always be behind Connor. He is getting PP1 usage this season.

But in the end, Bowness kind of indicated that Ehlers has been disgruntled by his usage / role. That might be significant in terms of his decision about re-signing. But I also think the Jets don't seem him as one of their top core players. That's why I could see the Jets trading him to restructure their roster this season. The problem is going to be finding a trade partner that will give enough value. I wonder if there might be a contending team that would give enough value in futures that the Jets could flip for a RHD or C. Or maybe there's a sign and trade option that the Jets could stir up.

As much as I think the Jets are "all in" this season, I have some difficulty thinking they would let Ehlers walk as a UFA with nothing in return, and I'm not sure that either side will be super keen on a contract extension.

Having said that, Chevy's surprised before, and Ehlers might like the certainty of playing for a good franchise in a market that appreciates him. I noticed his wry smile on the big screen when there was a big cheer for him after his goal last night.

They probably view him as their 3rd or 4th most important forward, which he is. Which makes him the 5th/6th most important core piece. They probably value Helly, Morrissey, Connor, Schief, and Lowry ahead of him.

 

[Flair Hay]

Interesting you value the Lowry type which is closer to Berg than a Pionk who is closer to an Ehlers.
I don't think Berg will carry the offense, but, I'm traditional in thinking that D's main job is to keep the puck out, which I think Berg is better at than Pionk.

Yeah Pionk being overplayed does not make him less replaceable.

He is having an awesome, awesome year offensively and is earning his money this year.

We are already seeing his pairings results cratering as time goes on with Fleury. We can find a RD that can beat tough mins with Samberg and play PP2 for a fraction of the cost. We have a guy in Salomonsson waiting in the wings whose ideal role is exactly that. We also have Colin Miller who has shown perfectly capable of that as well in the mins he has gotten here signed next year.

Meanwhile Lambert is scoring half a point a game in the AHL. And how is he supposed to replace Ehlers scoring over a point a game in the NHL?

I'll take Ehlers + Miller + Salomonsson + Chibrikov + blocking Lambert instead of Lambert + Pionk + Miller + Iafallo + blocking Salomonsson any day

 

[LowLefty]

You have to wonder if Chevy already knows the future by his drafts. He drafts Samberg and finally gets him to sign by bringing in a mentor and someone he knows personally in a trade that the boards went insane about. When he sees Sammy reaching his full potential he let's Dillon walk. He drafts forward heavy for years. Why? Probably because he sees a timeline when he is going to lose forwards. He drafted one quality d-man in 4 drafts, and for a long time people thought it was to replace Pionk, but it may be in fact to replace De Melo as a top pairing d-man. Because life without Pionk completely hinges on Salomonsson being a stud that can play over 20 minutes a night consistently. If he doesn't the team has no options to replace those minutes. Life without Ehlers creates opportunities for young players like Chibrikov or Lambert or Barlow. More than one option.

Perfetti moving into the middle would make Ehlers more sustainable long term without blocking a development path for prospects so that's one to watch.

The Pionk discussion gets interesting when you add in what he might want in his next contract - I think he is OK but not worth what they pay him now.
But I also realize how difficult it is to find dmen of value on the market - they just don't come up much and we are at the back of the line when they do.

But, in the end, you need to build a balanced blueline:
With his contract in mind, I think he needs a really good partner - which he shouldn't at $6M - he should be the guy on the second pair that can play with most anyone. Not to be over critical, but I always fall back to the contract - he's not cheap. I've always struggled to understand why offensive dmen are paid the way they are - most won't align with my position here but I like my dmen to be able to handle the dzone as well as they do the Ozone - and the good ones do that.

Once Samberg is back, Pionk will look like a $6M dman (mainly due to his offense). I wonder what Ville would look like with Samberg? Assuming the defensive zone heavy lifting was Samberg, he'd be free to display his offense (if it's there) and would likely look a lot better - maybe good enough. Now go out and find a LHD who can defend on the third pair, and you have a lineup that is somewhat balanced (offense vs defense blueline).
You can then pay Samberg because he is going to get paid - and if paired with Pionk (after both contracts), how much would out 2nd pair be costing us? I think you know where I'm going with this.

IMO, the org should be more concerned about defense when spending money on the blueline - we have JoMo who can do his thing on the PP (which is where I see most of the benefit for offensive D) - if you have guys back there that can make an outlet pass, that's all the offense I'm really looking for when you consider the fire power we have up front.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah Pionk being overplayed does not make him less replaceable.

He is having an awesome, awesome year offensively and is earning his money this year.

We are already seeing his pairings results cratering as time goes on with Fleury. We can find a RD that can beat tough mins with Samberg and play PP2 for a fraction of the cost. We have a guy in Salomonsson waiting in the wings whose ideal role is exactly that. We also have Colin Miller who has shown perfectly capable of that as well in the mins he has gotten here signed next year.

Meanwhile Lambert is scoring half a point a game in the AHL. And how is he supposed to replace Ehlers scoring over a point a game in the NHL?

I'll take Ehlers + Miller + Salomonsson + Chibrikov + blocking Lambert instead of Lambert + Pionk + Miller + Iafallo + blocking Salomonsson any day

I don't think Lambert is. If Ehlers goes Perfetti becomes the focal point.

 

[Flair Hay]

Again an unpopular take but letting Nik walk to free agency would be a massive mistake for this organization, either re sign him or move him the sooner the better. I could be proven wrong and would be glad about it but I think he has already made up his mind and he will test the market. I also think that Chevy and Co. know this.

Trading him away in a year we have a legit shot at the cup is what could be a massive mistake. If we were a bubble team I would agree completely. We are not. Time for this team to win together this spring.

The Pionk discussion gets interesting when you add in what he might want in his next contract - I think he is OK but not worth what they pay him now.
But I also realize how difficult it is to find dmen of value on the market - they just don't come up much and we are at the back of the line when they do.

But, in the end, you need to build a balanced blueline:
With his contract in mind, I think he needs a really good partner - which he shouldn't at $6M - he should be the guy on the second pair that can play with most anyone. Not to be over critical, but I always fall back to the contract - he's not cheap. I've always struggled to understand why offensive dmen are paid the way they are - most won't align with my position here but I like my dmen to be able to handle the dzone as well as they do the Ozone - and the good ones do that.

Once Samberg is back, Pionk will look like a $6M dman (mainly due to his offense). I wonder what Ville would look like with Samberg? Assuming the defensive zone heavy lifting was Samberg, he'd be free to display his offense (if it's there) and would likely look a lot better - maybe good enough. Now go out and find a LHD who can defend on the third pair, and you have a lineup that is somewhat balanced (offense vs defense blueline).
You can then pay Samberg because he is going to get paid - and if paired with Pionk (after both contracts), how much would out 2nd pair be costing us? I think you know where I'm going with this.

IMO, the org should be more concerned about defense when spending money on the blueline - we have JoMo who can do his thing on the PP (which is where I see most of the benefit for offensive D) - if you have guys back there that can make an outlet pass, that's all the offense I'm really looking for when you consider the fire power we have up front.

Very well said

I don't think Lambert is. If Ehlers goes Perfetti becomes the focal point.

I see what you mean. I think my point about the drop off from Ehlers to Lambert is still valid. Everyone will be asked to do more if Ehlers leaves. That is a nice way of saying the team gets worse imo

 

[Flair Hay]

They probably view him as their 3rd or 4th most important forward, which he is. Which makes him the 5th/6th most important core piece. They probably value Helly, Morrissey, Connor, Schief, and Lowry ahead of him.

I can agree with this. I don't think we want to get rid of our 5th or 6th most important player

Let someone else make that mistake.

Paying Pionk $6.5 will be a bigger mistake than paying Ehlers $8.5 for sure

 

[Adam da bomb]

Trading him away in a year we have a legit shot at the cup is what could be a massive mistake. If we were a bubble team I would agree completely. We are not. Time for this team to win together this spring.


Very well said


I see what you mean. I think my point about the drop off from Ehlers to Lambert is still valid. Everyone will be asked to do more if Ehlers leaves. That is a nice way of saying the team gets worse imo

Yep, there is a cycle. Every team who is competitive eventually gets worse and replaced by younger teams who were drafting higher. Devils went through that sucky period and will eventually have players ask for more money, while older teams like the AVs start sucking getting those 1sts and becoming good again. We are in that good phase where we will eventually age out and start sucking till we build up again.
Lambert may not be able to be what we are looking for, but, we also have Chib so hopefully he can be the guy.

 

[bustamente]

Trading him away in a year we have a legit shot at the cup is what could be a massive mistake. If we were a bubble team I would agree completely. We are not. Time for this team to win together this spring.

Great season no doubt, legit shot at the cup, maybe. Problem is that if this team tanks in the first round and Nik leaves without anything coming back you'll have a tough time getting people to come back to CLC next year. Playing as well as they are playing complicates the matter but this team is not a destination for free agents and you can't let players that you drafted and developed walk for free.

 

[Weezeric]

I can agree with this. I don't think we want to get rid of our 5th or 6th most important player


Paying Pionk $6.5 will be a bigger mistake than paying Ehlers $8.5 for sure

You know Pionk is top ten in the league in scoring for defencemen right?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Great season no doubt, legit shot at the cup, maybe. Problem is that if this team tanks in the first round and Nik leaves without anything coming back you'll have a tough time getting people to come back to CLC next year. Playing as well as they are playing complicates the matter but this team is not a destination for free agents and you can't let players that you drafted and developed walk for free.

And we have all seen this story playout too many times with choking in the playoffs. That's why I try not to put too much stock in it.

 

[Flair Hay]

Yep, there is a cycle. Every team who is competitive eventually gets worse and replaced by younger teams who were drafting higher. Devils went through that sucky period and will eventually have players ask for more money, while older teams like the AVs start sucking getting those 1sts and becoming good again. We are in that good phase where we will eventually age out and start sucking till we build up again.
Lambert may not be able to be what we are looking for, but, we also have Chib so hopefully he can be the guy.

Okay. Why are we replacing Ehlers with Lambert or Chibrikov when we can replace Pionk with Salomonsson?

We have the cap room to keep one pretty easily.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Okay. Why are we replacing Ehlers with Lambert or Chibrikov when we can replace Pionk with Salomonsson?

We have the cap room to keep one pretty easily.

I think Chib and Lambert are older and assumed closer to nhl ready than Salomonsson who they don't want to rush as they see future top pair guy.

 

[Flair Hay]

You know Pionk is top ten in the league in scoring for defencemen right?

I do. Does that mean you disagree with what I said?

He is having a really great offensive season.

He has also been okay offensively and bad defensively for 3 years before this one.

I'd like to keep Jim but between him and Ehlers it's a very easy decision in my mind.

Great season no doubt, legit shot at the cup, maybe. Problem is that if this team tanks in the first round and Nik leaves without anything coming back you'll have a tough time getting people to come back to CLC next year. Playing as well as they are playing complicates the matter but this team is not a destination for free agents and you can't let players that you drafted and developed walk for free.

People will be avoiding CLC next year if we lose again in the first round. Nik leaving for free instead of us having a late 1st and JAG prospect will be the least of most fans worries...

 

[Weezeric]

I do. Does that mean you disagree with what I said?

He is having a really great offensive season.

He has also been okay offensively and bad defensively for 3 years before this one.

I'd like to keep Jim but between him and Ehlers it's a very easy decision in my mind.


People will be avoiding CLC next year if we lose again in the first round. Nik leaving for free instead of us having a late 1st and JAG prospect will be the least of most fans worries...

Why not both? The Jets have 40M in cap space. Where is all that money going?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Why not both? The Jets have 40M in cap space. Where is all that money going?

All to Connor, Samberg, and Perfetti.

 

[KingBogo]

Yep, there is a cycle. Every team who is competitive eventually gets worse and replaced by younger teams who were drafting higher. Devils went through that sucky period and will eventually have players ask for more money, while older teams like the AVs start sucking getting those 1sts and becoming good again. We are in that good phase where we will eventually age out and start sucking till we build up again.
Lambert may not be able to be what we are looking for, but, we also have Chib so hopefully he can be the guy.

Except for Buffalo who drafts high every year and just stays bad as they trade out previous high picks for more high picks that they will one day trade for more high picks.