Player Discussion: Ehlers

[truck]

Note that I haven't claimed that Ehlers is not a playoff performer. My point is that I think that Scheifele can (and must) get to a level that a championship team needs. If Scheifele doesn't ever get there again, then the Jets are sun Even Ehlers at the top of his game won't have the same impact as Scheifele can. k (unless Dubois replaces him in that role). Even Ehlers at the top of his game won't have the same impact as Scheifele can.

As I've noted frequently, I think Connor is a fly in the ointment. Ehlers-Scheifele is such a better idea, whereas Connor would probably be better with a play driver like Copp that can defend and is more reliable in zone exits.

I've noted before that Buff (and to a lesser extent Trouba) were big losses for Scheifele because they covered for his defensive limitations. The 2018/19 season had a Buff and post-Buff split. Scheifele was at 51% in xGF% in 2018/19 with hard usage before Buff was injured, and he sank badly after Buff's injury.

One last consideration; I don't think we can assume that Ehlers' effectiveness would be sustained with the heavy usage the Scheifele gets. The Jets would be better with Ehlers playing more, but I expect his TOI ceiling is lower than Scheifele.

I've said my piece elsewhere, but I want to comment on the two bolded bits...

"Even Ehlers at the top of his game won't have the same impact as Scheifele can."

Ehlers has had a greater impact for two years. For the last year, he's been playing like a top 10 player in the league.

Are you pointing to a hypothetical, where Scheifele delivers that kind of impact, but at center?

" One last consideration; I don't think we can assume that Ehlers' effectiveness would be sustained with the heavy usage the Scheifele gets. The Jets would be better with Ehlers playing more, but I expect his TOI ceiling is lower than Scheifele."

The irony here is that Scheifele's results tanked when he started getting more minutes. He picked up an extra minute per game over the last two years and his effectiveness has plummeted.

We know that about Ehlers, but we do know has been even more productive in a 1st line role.

Nobody is advocating for him to play Scheifele's minutes, but he's playing like a start, on the level of Kucherov and Bread Man. Let's give him and extra minute 5 on 5 and some PP1 to see if he can sustain it.

 

[truck]

I think you are a little unfair to kc in your ehlers love.

No. I like him, and he's fun to watch, but he's one of the worst defensive players in the NHL.

 

[Adam da bomb]

No. He's one of the worst defensive players in the NHL.

But he is pretty great offensively and I read your post to say he is useless everywhere.

 

[truck]

But he is pretty great offensively and I read your post to say he is useless everywhere.

He is. My comment was more so about Scheifele and how he hasn't shown the ability to make up for Connor's defensive issues. Though to be fair, literally no one else has either.

 

[Whileee]

I've said my piece elsewhere, but I want to comment on the two bolded bits...

"Even Ehlers at the top of his game won't have the same impact as Scheifele can."

Ehlers has had a greater impact for two years. For the last year, he's been playing like a top 10 player in the league.

Are you pointing to a hypothetical, where Scheifele delivers that kind of impact, but at center?

One last consideration; I don't think we can assume that Ehlers' effectiveness would be sustained with the heavy usage the Scheifele gets. The Jets would be better with Ehlers playing more, but I expect his TOI ceiling is lower than Scheifele.

The irony here is that Scheifele's results tanked when he started getting more minutes. He picked up an extra minute per game over the last two years and his effectiveness has plummeted.

We know that about Ehlers, but we do know has been even more productive in a 1st line role.

Nobody is advocating for him to play Scheifele's minutes, but he's playing like a start, on the level of Kucherov and Bread Man. Let's give him and extra minute 5 on 5 and some PP1 to see if he can sustain it.

I agree about the impact the players have had, but my view is that Scheifele can and has played at a higher level and when he does, he has greater impact. The Jets will need that if they are to be a true contender.

We agree that Ehlers should get more ice time.

 

[LowLefty]

No. I like him, and he's fun to watch, but he's one of the worst defensive players in the NHL.

If we want to base our opinions of players on the stats column, hockey becomes a less a game and more of a stock market ticker tape review.

Making statements like this should be based on more than the stats column - what exactly makes KC one of the worst?

He is one of the best forecheckers on the team - which means he is working hard and is effective without the puck in his own end.
He plays well down low - much better than some of our "best" defensive players and to an extent, being able to manage the puck and players in those types of situations, is partly defensive.

The line in general, struggles in their own end, especially against tough matchups (like McD) - that reflects on the line and exposes our less than effective D coverage (dmen) in our end.

The wingers patrol up high and block lanes to the D men. Our D men are left with the responsibility of managing offensive winger traffic down low - along with the center who is helping out usually around the net front area.

All of the significant defending is taking place outside the the wingers areas of responsibility. Meanwhile, the wingers usually play a larger role on the outlet and are looking for opportunities to turn the game the other way based on an outlet pass.

If we're watching actual games, we will notice that our outlet passes are not good - they usually consist of a wrap around or dump into traffic that leaves the wingers in a position where they are scrubbing for pucks against Dmen on the wall. Or, there is no outlet and the cycle ties our Dmen (and center) up in our end for a large percentage of the shift.

This isn't supposed to work this way - outlets should be organized and based on systems that reply on solid Dmen who are able to separate the puck from the offense or stop cycles they wear them and the center down to a point where they are looking at any option to simple get the puck out of the zone. And now you have a winger that is struggling to make a less than systematic outlet into something effective.

Our wingers, especially those that are playing the tough matchups, take a beating defensively mainly due to poor D coverage deep in zone against the oppositions best.
And then we read the stat sheet and call out the wingers as poor defensive players because they are left dealing with poor defensive options.
Can we even consider these points when discussing players effectiveness before we jump straight in the stat sheet and make broad accusations likes "he's one of he worst defensive players in the NHL"?

 

[truck]

If we want to base our opinions of players on the stats column, hockey becomes a less a game and more of a stock market ticker tape review.

Making statements like this should be based on more than the stats column - what exactly makes KC one of the worst?

He is one of the best forecheckers on the team - which means he is working hard and is effective without the puck in his own end.
He plays well down low - much better than some of our "best" defensive players and to an extent, being able to manage the puck and players in those types of situations, is partly defensive.

The line in general, struggles in their own end, especially against tough matchups (like McD) - that reflects on the line and exposes our less than effective D coverage (dmen) in our end.

The wingers patrol up high and block lanes to the D men. Our D men are left with the responsibility of managing offensive winger traffic down low - along with the center who is helping out usually around the net front area.

All of the significant defending is taking place outside the the wingers areas of responsibility. Meanwhile, the wingers usually play a larger role on the outlet and are looking for opportunities to turn the game the other way based on an outlet pass.

If we're watching actual games, we will notice that our outlet passes are not good - they usually consist of a wrap around or dump into traffic that leaves the wingers in a position where they are scrubbing for pucks against Dmen on the wall. Or, there is no outlet and the cycle ties our Dmen (and center) up in our end for a large percentage of the shift.

This isn't supposed to work this way - outlets should be organized and based on systems that reply on solid Dmen who are able to separate the puck from the offense or stop cycles they wear them and the center down to a point where they are looking at any option to simple get the puck out of the zone. And now you have a winger that is struggling to make a less than systematic outlet into something effective.

Our wingers, especially those that are playing the tough matchups, take a beating defensively mainly due to poor D coverage deep in zone against the oppositions best.
And then we read the stat sheet and call out the wingers as poor defensive players because they are left dealing with poor defensive options.
Can we even consider these points when discussing players effectiveness before we jump straight in the stat sheet and make broad accusations likes "he's one of he worst defensive players in the NHL"?

There's a lot there, but to answer simply...

"what exactly makes KC one of the worst?"

Results.

Every line he plays on gets caved and pretty well everyone puts up worse defensive results when he's on the ice.

This has nothing to do with stocks, or ignoring what happens when he's on the ice. He is a visible mess in the D zone, and for all the good he does offensively, the team actually gives up more going the other way when he's on the ice - regardless of linemates.

He's far worse defensively than Kessel was when Kessel was getting all that flack years ago. You can't mistake effort (which his clearly exhibits), with effectiveness.

He looks like a lost puppy when the other team sears up in the D zone.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

Making statements like this should be based on more than the stats column - what exactly makes KC one of the worst?

ok then - eye test

me and others were criticizing his defensive acumen from the get go before there was any reasonable sample size

once again i am right in my analysis

 

[truck]

I agree about the impact the players have had, but my view is that Scheifele can and has played at a higher level and when he does, he has greater impact. The Jets will need that if they are to be a true contender.

We agree that Ehlers should get more ice time.

I won't complain if you are right. I'd love to see it.

I mean, in this scenario, the Jets have two of the top 10 most dominant players in the league. This is ideal.

 

[LowLefty]

There's a lot there, but to answer simply...

"what exactly makes KC one of the worst?"

Results.

Every line he plays on gets caved and pretty well everyone puts up worse defensive results when he's on the ice.

This has nothing to do with stocks, or ignoring what happens when he's on the ice. He is a visible mess in the D zone, and for all the good he does offensively, the team actually gives up more going the other way when he's on the ice - regardless of linemates.

He's far worse defensively than Kessel was when Kessel was getting all that flack years ago. You can't mistake effort (which his clearly exhibits), with effectiveness.

He looks like a lost puppy when the other team sears up in the D zone.

What are you seeing that makes him one of the worst in the game?

You really haven't touched on any points I was trying to make other than -
He looks like a lost puppy - how so? Does that mean he doesn't know how to play the game positionally?
He's a visible mess? How so - visibly speaking?
He's worse than Kessel. In what way exactly? What is he doing out there that is worse than Kessel - specifically.
Is the answer to the above the same? Stats tell me all I need to know.

I love to hear it when we tear into another Jet player's game like this - anything more we can add that will support what basically comes down to a player comp report directed at propping up another player and his usage?
After all this is the Ehlers thread and I assume that is why we are dragging KC into the discussion.

 

[LowLefty]

ok then - eye test

me and others were criticizing his defensive acumen from the get go before there was any reasonable sample size

once again i am right in my analysis

Don't like the eye test much I see - what exactly do fans do these days if they don't like watching the game.

 

[truck]

What are you seeing that makes him one of the worst in the game?

You really haven't touched on any points I was trying to make other than -
He looks like a lost puppy - how so? Does that mean he doesn't know how to play the game positionally?
He's a visible mess? How so - visibly speaking?
He's worse than Kessel. In what way exactly? What is he doing out there that is worse than Kessel - specifically.
Is the answer to the above the same? Stats tell me all I need to know.

I love to hear it when we tear into another Jet player's game like this - anything more we can add that will support what basically comes down to a player comp report directed at propping up another player and his usage?
After all this is the Ehlers thread and I assume that is why we are dragging KC into the discussion.

Connor wasn't brought into the discussion beyond a passing note, that covering for his defensive woes is a big ask.

His issues in the D zone are plenty visible by the eye test. He makes bad reads, over-commits to the wrong areas of the ice and struggles to effectively pressure the opposition or generate stops. He's also prone to flying the D zone a shade to early., but this isn't as big of a factor.

Kessel was slagged for his defence, because he appeared to be loafing and he didn't always hustle on the back check, but he actually make decent reads when they were set up in the O zone.

KC skates like the wind on the back check, but really struggles when the other team gets set up, and his lines let the opposition get set up far too frequently.

 

[truck]

Don't like the eye test much I see - what exactly do fans do these days if they don't like watching the game.

He literally said that he used eye test. How on earth did you read "don't like the eye test much" from that?

This looks like a massive failing of your eye test...

 

[LowLefty]

Connor wasn't brought into the discussion beyond a passing note, that covering for his defensive woes is a big ask.

His issues in the D zone are plenty visible by the eye test. He makes bad reads, over-commits to the wrong areas of the ice and struggles to effectively pressure the opposition or generate stops. He's also prone to flying the D zone a shade to early., but this isn't as big of a factor.

Kessel was slagged for his defence, because he appeared to be loafing and he didn't always hustle on the back check, but he actually make decent reads when they were set up in the O zone.

KC skates like the wind on the back check, but really struggles when the other team gets set up, and his lines let the opposition get set up far too frequently.

I don't agree with this -
He sets up in his D zone to cover the point option - he struggles with outlets due to the wrap around option our D use consistently - which puts the winger in a tough spot to get anything going in the other direction.
He's working on the top line which play against the oppositions best and our D struggle with that every night making what I just described, even worse. Our d are exposed by strong top lines - they are simply not good enough to handle a quick, skilled line.
This impacts the wingers ability to defend or exit due to the hail mary efforts the D are making to get the puck out of our zone.

We don't see it the same way - that's fine. Massive failing of my eye test? I don't think so but thanks for sticking to the talking points.
That's enough for me -

 

[LowLefty]

He literally said that he used eye test. How on earth did you read "don't like the eye test much" from that?

This looks like a massive failing of your eye test...

I read sarcasm - but I could be wrong - hard to tell sometimes when reading type.
So maybe a massive failing on my part

 

[truck]

We don't see it the same way - that's fine. Massive failing of my eye test? I don't think so but thanks for sticking to the talking points.

That's enough for me -

We don't see it the same way, but we both have theories. One theory can be supported by looking at the actual results, the other can't.

To a man, pretty well everyone on the team does worse when they play with Connor. The inverse is true for Ehlers. These are facts, and they are relevant.

 

[LowLefty]

We don't see it the same way, but we both have theories. One theory can be supported by looking at the actual results, the other can't.

To a man, pretty well everyone on the team does worse when they play with Connor. The inverse is true for Ehlers. These are facts, and they are relevant.

I'm not saying who is right or wrong - I'm simply throwing out a few factors that might impact the result.
There is no doubt about the result - there might be some discussion around the cause if we allow it.
It's fine - we don't agree - can we leave it at that?

 

[SUX2BU]

Ehlers is marvelous, and Laine's a great scoring talent, but when the Jets lost Scheifele in the playoffs last year it was pretty clear who the most important skater on the Jets is when the competition is at the top level. PLD will add another player at that level. Ehlers is a very important part of this team and a dynamic play driver and scorer, but I think people underestimate how important Scheifele (and hopefully PLD) are to the Jets' championship aspirations.

Statsny, to a certain degree will as well

 

[Whileee]

What are you seeing that makes him one of the worst in the game?

You really haven't touched on any points I was trying to make other than -
He looks like a lost puppy - how so? Does that mean he doesn't know how to play the game positionally?
He's a visible mess? How so - visibly speaking?
He's worse than Kessel. In what way exactly? What is he doing out there that is worse than Kessel - specifically.
Is the answer to the above the same? Stats tell me all I need to know.

I love to hear it when we tear into another Jet player's game like this - anything more we can add that will support what basically comes down to a player comp report directed at propping up another player and his usage?
After all this is the Ehlers thread and I assume that is why we are dragging KC into the discussion.

I've said this before, but Connor is absolutely abysmal in zone exits, and is very prone to turnovers. That results in way too many shifts for his line facing extended D zone time, every time he coughs up the puck or fails to exit the zone. It's one area where his play is very noticeably worse than Ehlers, who is absolutely brilliant at creatively finding ways to generate puck control and zone exits, directly or indirectly. Connor exacerbates that by poor positioning without the puck and an inability to win puck battles in his zone.

The problem is that Scheifele is also sloppy on zone exits, and has a tendency to fly the zone looking for rush offense, so any Connor failure at zone exit leaves the Jets even more vulnerable to high danger offense against. The other area where Scheifele struggles is in making D stops and winning pucks in the D zone. He tends to play on the edge of board battles hoping for the puck to spring free so he can start a rush. It's compounded by poor D positioning since he tends to look for rush options more than getting good D positioning when he doesn't have the puck. So when a board battle is lost, he is playing behind the other team and leaving his team in bad positions. When Scheifele and Connor were playing with Buff and Trouba, they weren't burned as much by these defensive tendencies because those two D were so good at stopping possessions and winning puck battles. Scheifele didn't pay a price by hedging for offense when playing with them.

The other underreported problem that Connor-Scheifele causes is the Jets taking extra penalties due to their D zone issues. When they fail to clear the zone and get hemmed in for long stretches, it leads to more D zone penalties by all players.

My observation is that Scheifele is much more intense and diligent in his own zone in the playoffs. He tends to dig in more and plays a more defensive posture.

Connor needs to watch how Ehlers manages zone exits, and Scheifele could learn from Lowry and Copp and Stastny in D zone positioning.

 

[LowLefty]

I've said this before, but Connor is absolutely abysmal in zone exits, and is very prone to turnovers. That results in way too many shifts for his line facing extended D zone time, every time he coughs up the puck or fails to exit the zone. It's one area where his play is very noticeably worse than Ehlers, who is absolutely brilliant at creatively finding ways to generate puck control and zone exits, directly or indirectly. Connor exacerbates that by poor positioning without the puck and an inability to win puck battles in his zone.

The problem is that Scheifele is also slippy on zone exits, and has a tendency to fly the zone looking for rush offense, so any Connor failure at zone exit leaves the Jets even more vulnerable to high danger offense against. The other area where Scheifele struggles is in making D stops and winning pucks in the D zone. He tends to play on the edge of board battles hoping for the puck to spring free so he can start a rush. It's compounded by poor D positioning since he tends to look for rush options more than getting good D positioning when he doesn't have the puck. So when a board battle is lost, he is playing behind the other team and leaving his team in bad positions. When Scheifele and Connor were playing with Buff and Trouba, they weren't burned as much by these defensive tendencies because those two D were so good at stopping possessions and winning puck battles. Scheifele didn't pay a price by hedging for offense when playing with them.

The other underreported problem that Connor-Scheifele causes is the Jets taking extra penalties due to their D zone issues. When they fail to clear the zone and get hemmed in for long stretches, it leads to more D zone penalties by all players.

My observation is that Scheifele is much more intense and diligent in his own zone in the playoffs. He tends to dig in more and plays a more defensive posture.

Connor needs to watch how Ehlers manages zone exits, and Scheifele could learn from Lowry and Copp and Stastny in D zone positioning.

The bold is what I was referring to - it's nice to have a true top pairing d group supporting your top line.
After all, they are up against the competitions best in most match ups and you need that support - or your wingers could look "abysmal".
Exiting your zone is tough to do when you are trying to pick up ringers off the walls when our D attempt to dump after chasing for 30 to 45 seconds.

Comparing him to Ehlers is fine - but there is a lot of room between Abysmal and Ehlers. I think he lands between the two somewhere and I think we need to consider the top line matchups and our current top pairing when we have this discussion.

 

[surixon]

The bold is what I was referring to - it's nice to have a true top pairing d group supporting your top line.
After all, they are up against the competitions best in most match ups and you need that support - or your wingers could look "abysmal".
Exiting your zone is tough to do when you are trying to pick up ringers off the walls when our D attempt to dump after chasing for 30 to 45 seconds.

Comparing him to Ehlers is fine - but there is a lot of room between Abysmal and Ehlers. I think he lands between the two somewhere and I think we need to consider the top line matchups and our current top pairing when we have this discussion.

The problem is that none of our other lines are having the same types of issue exiting their zone. Our zone exits have actually been much improved this year and imo the top line has made their own issues this year.

Its really up to Conner/Scheifele/Wheeler to up their play and manage the puck better in our end.

 

[Cnile]

I think Ehlers needs more "load management" than Connor. Ehlers seems to lose his energy / pop more with high usage. With a back-to-back and 5 games in 7 nights, it's reasonable to use Ehlers a bit less so he is fresher for tonight's game. Connor seems to be able to manage the heavier workload without slowing down as much.

I’d argue Connor doesn’t expend as much energy either

 

[FonRiesen]

Just want to put this here for posterity - Ehlers makes Giordano look like a rookie:

 

[Neuf]

Just want to put this here for posterity - Ehlers makes Giordano look like a rookie:

If McDavid had done that....

 

[GNP]

I have been calling for Ehlers to be used on the point on power play # 1, and he scored last night vs the Flames from that spot. He scored with a hard wrist shot, right to the top corner of the net -- a real beauty. We need a guy with a hard and accurate shot from the point, and Ehlers gives us that.

Also if he sees an opening, he has the speed to rush the net, and take a shot, and set up a play. I hope they always use Ehlers at the point on PP # 1, and it will be very effective.