Scheifele's 5v5 metrics are perplexing and frustrating, but check out his metrics in the playoffs. He's raised his play and been a major driver, and the Jets really wilted vs. the Flames when he went down.
Player Discussion: Ehlers
- Thread starter Hunter368
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scelaton
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- Jul 5, 2012
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That isn't quite the way I see the issue. I think he does well enough close in, as long as the goalie can't focus on him alone, like in a breakaway or shootout. He is certainly no Kyle Connor in close, but that doesn't make him weak there. KC is great in close. For all the moves Niko can put on Dmen to get by them, you would think he would have the odd move for the goalies.But he is very predictable.
Confidence. He is finally getting it back.
Laine's departure will also help in that regard.
truck
Registered User
I am a big fan of Scheifele, and his loss is huge. I'm just not going to hyper analyze 4 games in which the Jets actually out-performed their regular season selves - especially after a COVID break.
The Jets were the worst 5 on 5 team in league. Losses should have been expected, no wilting required.
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I wouldn't bet on who will be the best Jet from game to game but I know it will be a across a few different players depending on the night.
Add PLD to the mix and the line will be even better and see more minutes - everyone's happy, right?
There is no point in viewing stats from past years on the Jets forwards - it's all changing before your eyes and the change maybe even more profound when we add our big new center. There might be 2 minutes difference between our new 1A/B in a couple of weeks and I can see the A/B changing from night to night depending on match ups and who is playing better.
If PLD was centering the 2nd line against the Oilers, I would not have been surprised in seeing that line matched against McD's line - and that could have easily resulted in more minutes for Ehlers and less points
I was citing Scheifele's entire playoff resume over the past few years. Even with the unimpressive metrics during the regular seasons, he's been a beast in the playoffs. He is one of the elite level players that can find another gear and excel in playoffs. PLD looks to be another.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I mean, 18-present Scheifele has a greater WAR but Ehlers is second and has a higher xWAR and WAR/60. There's no doubt in my mind that Ehlers has been the Jets' most positive winger, but Scheifele has a lot of value too.
What may surprise people is Copp is not too far away. This "emergence" recently for the both of them has been around for a while. They just needed more ice time.
But ya, making large inferences from small sample playoffs is how even GMs make really, really bad moves.
Playoff sample is only 24 games, but I think it was pretty easy to see that Scheifele's game was at a very high level in all his playoff games, and I have confidence that it's a somewhat stable trait.
I have also liked Ehlers in the playoffs despite some bad luck.
Copp is good. I've been saying that for some time now. Before PLD I touted him for 2C.
I think Ehlers has been underutilized on the Jets, particularly in relation to Connor who's play in his own zone drives me crazy sometimes. I think Ehlers should play more (maybe by up to 20% at ES), but I think it's possible that his effectiveness and productivity wouldn't necessarily be maintained in that extra time based on endurance and match-ups / usage. Ehlers is a high octane player and I've noticed that he sometimes loses his legs, and his effectiveness drops somewhat. Same is true for Scheifele and Connor as we saw last game, but I think they can handle more minutes before their legs turn to jelly.
truck
Registered User
I like Scheifele. I do view him as a very important member of the team. I just don't buy that the Jets were significantly worse in the 4 game play in than they were during the season.
They were the worst 5 on 5 team throughout the year, they should have been expected to lose. They did.
As for the numbers you shared...
Most of these games happened 3 years ago when the whole team was good, and Scheifele was performing much better.
Do you think he's been mailing in his last two regular seasons, because he hasn't been near the same since. Even his playoff numbers have been basically break even.
The idea that he's got some sort of magical playoff gear that takes him from a mess defensively, to a dominant force is a fun story, but it isn't based in reality.
Conversely, Ehlers' regular season success didn't exactly transfer into strong performance in the past couple of playoffs.
I've noted my concerns about Scheifele's defensive play often in the past few years, and still have concerns. But he's been a different player in the playoffs, and I still think he's the type of player that is essential to playoff success.
truck
Registered User
This is wishful thinking, this isn't analysis. The numbers don't support what your saying - for Ehlers or Scheifele.
It is never wise to make a projection based on a small sample of data - particularly when it leads to a different conclusion than massive samples of data.
I'm very respectful of data. I use it all the time in my line of work, including advanced analyses. I'm fully aware of the difference between sample size and context. I'm also inclined to incorporate observations. To me, Scheifele has found another level in playoffs, and it's reflected in the shot metrics. I'm fully aware of his limitations over a regular season, which is evident in observations (peruse my post game comments over the past few years).
P.S. have a look at Ehlers' shot metrics over the past couple of playoffs. I don't necessarily think it reflects how he will be, but it reflects how he was.
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truck
Registered User
Given the sample size, that data means very little to me. Nothing makes it more valid than the 103 minutes that Scheifele has played this regular season.
I don't believe there is a switch that a player can switch that takes them from porous defensively, to a two way ace. "Found another level" is likely built on short run variance more than anything else.
I'm not saying this to slag on Scheifele, I do think he's capable of more than he's shown, but I don't believe it is as simple as him saying "Oh heck, it's the playoffs now so I'll play better."
How do you explain Scheifele's decline In the past couple of years? Did he turn it "off"? If so, can't he turn it back on for stretches like the playoffs?
I'm a huge Ehlers fan, and I believe he's been underrated and under-utilized. But the current fad of slagging Scheifele as though he's a liability or at least inconsequential to their Cup aspirations is misguided, in my view. He's a great talent and a core player, and the Jets are unlikely to be successful without his impact in the playoffs.
truck
Registered User
I've stated plainly that I'm not slagging Scheifele.
I view him as the Jets 3rd best player behind Hellebuyck and Ehlers. I just think it's silly to say the Jets folded in his absence given how atrocious the team was last season.
As for why he's slowed...
I suspect it has more to do with deployment and linemates than anything. He isn't the kind of line driver that can carry liabilities.
Kyle Connor and a declining Wheeler aren't offering him much support. His numbers are fine when he plays with Ehlers.
Ehlers and Scheifele have different roles and profiles. My view is that Scheifele is more important to the Jets' overall potential than Ehlers, notwithstanding some disappointing play in his own zone during the regular season the past couple of seasons.
I think we both agree that Ehlers-Scheifele has been a better combination than Connor-Scheifele. I wish Maurice had stuck with it beyond the first game this season.
truck
Registered User
They have different roles and I generally value the centre more, but in this case...
Ehlers consistently makes his whole line better and Scheifele hasn't shown that level of impact in the last couple years. He scores, but he gives up more going the other way.
If Scheifele needs Ehlers to play break even hockey, then Ehlers is the better player IMO.
I will say, I'm excited to see PLD join the fold. He's a play driver too and the Jets top 6 desperately needs someone beyond Ehlers in that role.
Mathmew Purrrr Oh
#meowmeowmeowmeow
nikolaj "'you go take a look at last year at the two lowest-minute games that nikolaj ehlers played i think they're both going to be under twelve minutes and i'm not advocating that i'm going to play nikky under twelve minutes' - paul maurice" ehlers
truck
Registered User
JetsFan815
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- Jan 16, 2012
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Scheifele this season:
| Corsi For | 97 |
| Corsi Against | 98 |
| xGF | 4.12 |
| xGA | 4.9 |
| Fenwick For | 72 |
| Fenwick Against | 72 |
All the while being hard matched against the top lines including being hard matched against McDavid for what has been ~25% of the games in that sample. Seems to me he is breaking even just fine without Ehlers.
truck
Registered User
WPGChief
Registered User
Summing up playoffs where there have been ~82 games in between each season is a weird way of showing anything. Just show their playoff season splits, like so:
No one is going to argue that 2017-18 Playoffs Scheifele was not anything but a beast. That return from injury to the end of the postseason was probably the best stretch of hockey we'll ever see from him, and it's obviously why he's in so many conversations about the best-underrated centre. What you miss out is that 2017-18 Playoffs Ehlers wasn't that far behind. Insanely better metrics across any shot type, except xG. That one-two punch (in terms of first and second line) should have gotten us to the Stanley Cup, if Fleury didn't steal that series.
Then you get into 2018-19, where both players pretty much just took a 5-10% drop against all shot metrics. The difference being, Scheifele's on-ice Sh% stayed high (although the on-ice Sv% suffered too (because, y'know, him and his line of Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler have been giving up just as much as they were getting, like we saw the entire regular season) leading to just a 50% GF%), meanwhile Ehlers' was a big ol' fat 0%. Which, y'know, everyone expected; because after only 30 minutes of Ehlers-Hayes-Laine not scoring, Maurice gets trigger-happy and reunites Ehlers-Little-Laine which had struggled at the start of the season (and saw the same result in the playoffs).
A 0% Sh% nearly happened in the Play-In series the next season too, except he scored (and was the only one to score when he was on the ice at 5v5) alongside the likes of *checks notes* Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler, and the player he spent the most TOI with (drumroll please!) ...Cody Eakin. Meanwhile, Scheifele gets injured.
Scheifele's been "a beast in the playoffs" for provably just one season. Ehlers nearly met that mark in the exact same season. It's just that Ehlers' reputation dropped like a stone because there was a significant (and predictable) lack of scoring on his line for one playoff series, and then people go and see he put up 0 goals in 2017-18 and 2018-19 and all the sudden he's not a playoff performer, ever. It's always been a weird conclusion to come to.
Scheifele hasn't ever gotten back to that 2017-18 form. Ehlers, meanwhile, kept on ticking for two more seasons.
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Note that I haven't claimed that Ehlers is not a playoff performer. My point is that I think that Scheifele can (and must) get to a level that a championship team needs. If Scheifele doesn't ever get there again, then the Jets are sunk (unless Dubois replaces him in that role). Even Ehlers at the top of his game won't have the same impact as Scheifele can.Summing up playoffs where there have been ~82 games in between each season is a weird way of showing anything. Just show their playoff season splits, like so:
No one is going to argue that 2017-18 Playoffs Scheifele was not anything but a beast. That return from injury to the end of the postseason was probably the best stretch of hockey we'll ever see from him, and it's obviously why he's in so many conversations about the best-underrated centre. What you miss out is that 2017-18 Playoffs Ehlers wasn't that far behind. Insanely better metrics across any shot type, except xG. That one-two punch (in terms of first and second line) should have gotten us to the Stanley Cup, if Fleury didn't steal that series.
Then you get into 2018-19, where both players pretty much just took a 5-10% drop against all shot metrics. The difference being, Scheifele's on-ice Sh% stayed high (although the on-ice Sv% suffered too (because, y'know, him and his line of Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler have been giving up just as much as they were getting, like we saw the entire regular season) leading to just a 50% GF%), meanwhile Ehlers' was a big ol' fat 0%. Which, y'know, everyone expected; because after only 30 minutes of Ehlers-Hayes-Laine not scoring, Maurice gets trigger-happy and reunites Ehlers-Little-Laine which had struggled at the start of the season (and saw the same result in the playoffs).
A 0% Sh% nearly happened in the Play-In series the next season too, except he scored (and was the only one to score when he was on the ice at 5v5) alongside the likes of *checks notes* Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler, and the player he spent the most TOI with (drumroll please!) ...Cody Eakin. Meanwhile, Scheifele gets injured.
Scheifele's been "a beast in the playoffs" for provably just one season. Ehlers nearly met that mark in the exact same season. It's just that Ehlers' reputation dropped like a stone because there was a significant (and predictable) lack of scoring on his line for one playoff series, and then people go and see he put up 0 goals in 2017-18 and 2018-19 and all the sudden he's not a playoff performer, ever. It's always been a weird conclusion to come to.
Scheifele hasn't ever gotten back to that 2017-18 form. Ehlers, meanwhile, kept on ticking for two more seasons.
As I've noted frequently, I think Connor is a fly in the ointment. Ehlers-Scheifele is such a better idea, whereas Connor would probably be better with a play driver like Copp that can defend and is more reliable in zone exits.
I've noted before that Buff (and to a lesser extent Trouba) were big losses for Scheifele because they covered for his defensive limitations. The 2018/19 season had a Buff and post-Buff split. Scheifele was at 51% in xGF% in 2018/19 with hard usage before Buff was injured, and he sank badly after Buff's injury.
One last consideration; I don't think we can assume that Ehlers' effectiveness would be sustained with the heavy usage the Scheifele gets. The Jets would be better with Ehlers playing more, but I expect his TOI ceiling is lower than Scheifele.
DashingDane
Dutch boy
This was a fun read 
(paywall)
"He’s scoring more points per minute than any Jets player — even the ones who have played twice as much on the power play — and he’s doing it for the second straight season."
Limited minutes, big-time production: Nik Ehlers has emerged as the Jets' top skater despite a secondary role
(paywall)"He’s scoring more points per minute than any Jets player — even the ones who have played twice as much on the power play — and he’s doing it for the second straight season."
Limited minutes, big-time production: Nik Ehlers has emerged as the Jets' top skater despite a secondary role
