Player Discussion: Ehlers

[tbone1968]

Ehlers has good chemistry with Stastny. Both are smart players, see the ice well, and anticipate offence plays and opportunities in same way. In other words, they are on the same page. And Copp is that physical grinder that can chip in offensively.

Adding Dubois to that line likely won’t change much, other than Dubois is even more skilled than Copp. I think Dubois and Ehlers will mesh very well, and Stastny on that line for defensive awareness and “smarts” may just bring it all together as well.

Moving forward, I would like to see the Jets pair forwards, and I believe the Jets have solid pairs.

Connor/Scheifele/XXXX
XXXX/Dubois/Ehlers
Copp/Lowry/XXXX

Now you add Stastny and Wheeler as interchangeable parts in the top 6 and off you go.

If Dubois and Ehlers can generate the same chemistry as Stastny and Ehlers, that’s a very strong top 6.

Now just fix that D Chevy.

I like your thinking about pairs and fill in from there. But personally I think if we have the C depth, finally, use it and skate other teams into the ice with a fresh line up. Pack of wolves baby

Scheifele / Wheeler
Connor / PLD
Stastny / Ehlers
Harkins / Lowry

Fill in the rest between Copp, Apples, Ves, Lewis, Perrault

 

[truck]

Not sure QoO outweighs QoT but the way Maurice matches lines there probably is some effect:



View attachment 389135

I could see this being a factor, but we also have a significant sample showing improved production for both Ehlers and Laine when they play with Scheifele.

Connor's scoring rates on the other hand, remain flat.

 

[FonRiesen]

I still think that some players can handle higher minutes than others, especially over the course of a season. Also, the fatigue is not strictly related to time-on-ice, but also style and the distance skated. Stastny or Lowry skate much less distance than Tanev or Ehlers. I would bet that Ehlers is near the top of all Jets forwards in terms of distance traveled per minute. Based purely on per minute productivity I think Ehlers deserves more ice-time, but I'm not sure his effectiveness would be maintained if he was getting the kind of ice-time that Connor or Scheifele gets. His fitness has probably improved, but I recall watching camp fitness testing and players like Scheifele and Connor and Roslovic blowing away Ehlers in endurance tests like the Beep Test.

I don't want him to get Schiefele's current minutes... The point is to even out everyone more. I don't think a forward should be getting more than 20-21m in a game. Not with our depth (even pre-PLD). I'd say it means you have to conserve more energy throughout, and I'd rather see more effort for a whole shift...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers pace;
Games 82, Goals 58(.5), Assists 70(.2), Points 128(.7) -

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Its not about teammates.. its not about the org. (Chevi loves Ehlers) Its not about the city!! EHLERS LOVES WINNIPEG!! EHLERS LOVES HIS TEAMMATES!!! Its about TOI and the Coach!!

Not to disagree about coaching - but I have seen no sign of Niko being unhappy.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The last 3 years do not apply anymore - unless you want to dwell on the past.
We now have a 1B center that should even things out more - we've never had this.
With the addition in mind, we'll see - I'm optimistic.

Yeah, OK. But Stastny seems to be doing pretty well, after a slow start - and he plays both ways.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers is our best forward. Everyone loves the points that Connor puts up, but the underlying numbers are heavily skewed in Ehlers favour. Paired up with PLD, I hope Ehlers TOI goes up and the CSW line's TOI goes down. The CSW line has never been and will never be, very good defensively. PLD, Ehlers against the other teams top line is what I want to see.

Yeah, but I would just as soon see the 1b line score the goals as play defense. Though they would likely be better defensively.

 

[truck]

I don't want him to get Schiefele's current minutes... The point is to even out everyone more. I don't think a forward should be getting more than 20-21m in a game. Not with our depth (even pre-PLD). I'd say it means you have to conserve more energy throughout, and I'd rather see more effort for a whole shift...

I agree with this. Scheifele has topped 26 minutes more than once this year.

That is insane and completely unnecessary. Ehlers doesn't need those extra minutes or to play on the PK, but I think he should be the 5 on 5 ice time leader most nights.

The best player should play the most. Period.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Good teams have first line players playing down the line up. Ehlers has played on the first line at numerous points throughout his last 3 or 4 years.

I would think most GMs in the league are aiming to build teams where guys play down the lineup because there is so much talent.

2C's - Malkin, Draisaitl, Tavares.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So far it's been all words and no action from PM. His ice time has not improved. Even when placed on the 1st line KFC passed him on minutes while playing on second line. Pretty much every game.

Special teams. Nikky should be on PP1. Though I think PP1 is starting to use KC for zone entries a little more often, and he is doing it a little better than some others.

I don't really want to see either Ehlers or Connor blocking shots on the PK. Their quickness could be valuable there though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Nikky continues with consistent finish and production, with his " better-than-most play driving- puck carrying wizardry" he will be as exciting as King McDavid for 4-on-4/ 3-on-3.
He's earned the look in these situations, and should top be #1/ 2 in shoot-outs.
Wake up coach Mo and give Nikky his due opportunities, please, before he has to initiate trade me requests!

I still would not use him in shootouts. He gets more breakaway chances than most but fewer breakaway goals. He doesn't seem to have any shootout moves and almost never tries a backhand shot. His only real weakness, IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Laine being so bad defensively is part of the reason for Maurice sheltering that 2nd line so much which unfortunately has impact on Ehlers as he played with Laine a lot. With Laine gone and Ehlers playing with two guys Paul can trust I think that changes the usage. Paul even mentioned that in his interview today Paul Maurice on the North Division, what went wrong with Laine & the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois Said that he used to use the Lowry line to take the checking minutes and use the younger guys in the "3 hole" to get them matchups where they could just score, said that with Dubois he intends to use him more to have the top 2 lines draw attention from each other.

Maurice promises.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers must be happy right as this is the most productive he’s ever been. Best player with his new best friends Copp and stastny.

He is not happy to have lost his BFF. The hockey and the team are different issues.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Connor has had less than 90 seconds on the PK this season. Maurice has taken Connor, Scheifele and Wheeler off the PK.

And how has the PK been so far?

I hate seeing any of our top 6 out there blocking shots. But our PK has got to get better.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

last year + this year

View attachment 389004

Niko is in some pretty good company.

 

[LowLefty]

I still would not use him in shootouts. He gets more breakaway chances than most but fewer breakaway goals. He doesn't seem to have any shootout moves and almost never tries a backhand shot. His only real weakness, IMO.

He's not effective close in - that's why it shows up on shootouts.
Shooting is where he makes hay - as far as goal scoring is concerned.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'll always miss Laine no matter what happens, but it seems trading him lifted a giant weight off our shoulders. But Ehlers playing well with Copp and Stastny makes me wonder what will happen with Dubois.

I imagine on the third line Dubois should start to get comfortable, but would imagine with

But would also like to maybe see what happens and try him out with that line, but I wouldn't want to wreck a beautiful thing. Unless someone is shifted to the Scheifele Wheeler line in Connor's place, we roll with Connor-Dubois-Appleton. Just don't think it should be based on ice-time with the top three lines. If we gotta go against Tkachuk, roll out Lewis and Thompson. But maybe even try Lowry on the first line because he's earned it.

Lowry-Scheifele-Wheeler
Ehlers-Stastny-Copp
Connor-Dubois-Appleton
Perreault-Harkins-Lewis

We have such an underrated team so far.

That's interesting. Not sure it is good, or not, but it is interesting. Lowry with Scheif and Wheeler would certainly improve the defensive play of that line.

The pending arrival of PLD does create a real problem - of the good problem to have variety. It illustrates the reality that we should have been getting a 1RD for Laine instead, but that may be temporary.

But there are a few important points to keep in mind. First, this problem exists only as long as Stastny is still here and still playing like he has recently. Second, the problem only exists while the 2nd and 3rd lines are performing so well that we don't want to tinker with them. That could end at any time. Streaks end, or players get injured. I believe that PLD's first game will be Feb 9 in Cgy. The situation may have already changed by then. Don't know if it will mean anything, but that will be a 4th consecutive game against Cgy. One against Van and 3 against Flames, all at home, before that happens.

How long will Stastny be able to play this well? Will it continue if he is shifted to a wing? If he keeps this up, should we explore signing him to a 1 yr, less expensive contract? Would he be interested in that? Or will he explore the UFA market? These questions become moot if age catches up to him anytime soon.

I'm not sure there is a need to keep Stastny, even for 1 yr on a cheaper contract, if Copp can maintain this level of play. He could be a long term solution at 2LW. We also have Perfetti in the system.

Lots of questions, lots of moving parts. It will be interesting to watch it play out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Basically the same Anything outside of Copenhagen might as well be Mars

Does that include LA?

 

[WolfHouse]

That's interesting. Not sure it is good, or not, but it is interesting. Lowry with Scheif and Wheeler would certainly improve the defensive play of that line.

The pending arrival of PLD does create a real problem - of the good problem to have variety. It illustrates the reality that we should have been getting a 1RD for Laine instead, but that may be temporary.

But there are a few important points to keep in mind. First, this problem exists only as long as Stastny is still here and still playing like he has recently. Second, the problem only exists while the 2nd and 3rd lines are performing so well that we don't want to tinker with them. That could end at any time. Streaks end, or players get injured. I believe that PLD's first game will be Feb 9 in Cgy. The situation may have already changed by then. Don't know if it will mean anything, but that will be a 4th consecutive game against Cgy. One against Van and 3 against Flames, all at home, before that happens.

How long will Stastny be able to play this well? Will it continue if he is shifted to a wing? If he keeps this up, should we explore signing him to a 1 yr, less expensive contract? Would he be interested in that? Or will he explore the UFA market? These questions become moot if age catches up to him anytime soon.

I'm not sure there is a need to keep Stastny, even for 1 yr on a cheaper contract, if Copp can maintain this level of play. He could be a long term solution at 2LW. We also have Perfetti in the system.

Lots of questions, lots of moving parts. It will be interesting to watch it play out.

I'm not so sure about the 1RD issue anymore... I like Maurice's coaching a lot more when our D-core is mediocre rather than a high-skilled top pairing

The first year we made the playoffs our D was ravaged with injuries and he really removed the freewheeling aspect from our D and they focused on just getting the puck out of our zone - nice and simple

With this top 9, we have speed, size and scoring threats on all lines - teams will be much less likely to commit to running our D if they know that an outlet pass can lead to a 2-1 at any moment

Mo-Demelo
Forbort-Pionk
Poolman-Beaulieu
Stanley-Heinola

This is starting to look like enough depth for a playoff run this year...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He's not effective close in - that's why it shows up on shootouts.
Shooting is where he makes hay - as far as goal scoring is concerned.

That isn't quite the way I see the issue. I think he does well enough close in, as long as the goalie can't focus on him alone, like in a breakaway or shootout. He is certainly no Kyle Connor in close, but that doesn't make him weak there. KC is great in close. For all the moves Niko can put on Dmen to get by them, you would think he would have the odd move for the goalies. But he is very predictable.

 

[DashingDane]

Does that include LA?

Obviously That's why we have SpaceX

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not so sure about the 1RD issue anymore... I like Maurice's coaching a lot more when our D-core is mediocre rather than a high-skilled top pairing

The first year we made the playoffs our D was ravaged with injuries and he really removed the freewheeling aspect from our D and they focused on just getting the puck out of our zone - nice and simple

With this top 9, we have speed, size and scoring threats on all lines - teams will be much less likely to commit to running our D if they know that an outlet pass can lead to a 2-1 at any moment

Mo-Demelo
Forbort-Pionk
Poolman-Beaulieu
Stanley-Heinola

This is starting to look like enough depth for a playoff run this year...

Yes, a PO run. Not likely real contention though. Although anything can happen once you make it to the dance. But the top pair is not contender level. Just for fun, think of this D compared to the one above:

Morrissey - Pulock
Heinola - DeMelo
Forbort - Poolman
Stanley/Beaulieu

Not saying we could get Pulock. Just using him as an example.
None of those 3 pairs is going to get run out of the building physically. None of them is going to get turnstiled. All of them have at least some offensive potential and all of them can exit the D zone. I think getting that 1 guy makes a very big difference to the whole D corps. With our F and goaltending, that is a real contender.

 

[WolfHouse]

Yes, a PO run. Not likely real contention though. Although anything can happen once you make it to the dance. But the top pair is not contender level. Just for fun, think of this D compared to the one above:

Morrissey - Pulock
Heinola - DeMelo
Forbort - Poolman
Stanley/Beaulieu

Not saying we could get Pulock. Just using him as an example.
None of those 3 pairs is going to get run out of the building physically. None of them is going to get turnstiled. All of them have at least some offensive potential and all of them can exit the D zone. I think getting that 1 guy makes a very big difference to the whole D corps. With our F and goaltending, that is a real contender.

Hey I agree that Pulock or equivalent would be great... but that top four also feeds into Mo's freewheeling hybrid D that confuses his own players...

Chevy's trading is done for this season and maybe next (unless he makes an insane deal to protect Stanley from Seattle )

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Do the smaller really fast players have a bit of a bias in the early season. Must takes 10 or 12 games for some players to get up to full speed. There’s a reason some of the bigger players like Wheels take a long time to get started each year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hey I agree that Pulock or equivalent would be great... but that top four also feeds into Mo's freewheeling hybrid D that confuses his own players...

Chevy's trading is done for this season and maybe next (unless he makes an insane deal to protect Stanley from Seattle )

You are probably right. But I will continue to hope for 1 more good one. without it, we are constrained to hoping that either Heinola or Samberg can become a true top pair D playing on his off side. Otherwise, I think we are stuck in the mushy middle.

We can afford to give up quite a lot in non-core assets to put the finishing touches on this roster. I don't think we can afford to continue to be patient.