Player Discussion: Ehlers

[DRW204]

the Jets scored 27 goals with Ehlers on the ice.
Ehlers - 9 goals, 21 primary points, 25 total points

min. 495 mins (10% less than Ehlers as a bench mark) at 5v5

78% primary points vs total on-ice GF was the highest in the league. the average for top-10 5v5 scorers is about 61%.

93% of individual pts vs total on-ice GF was the highest in the league. top-10 scorers was 77%.

smaller sample of goals-for so 1-2 values can skew things mightly but given his TOI, coming back from injury, he was hella productive once again. this guy absolutely needs to stay healthy though for us.

 

[BoneDocUK]

the Jets scored 27 goals with Ehlers on the ice.
Ehlers - 9 goals, 21 primary points, 25 total points

min. 495 mins (10% less than Ehlers as a bench mark) at 5v5

78% primary points vs total on-ice GF was the highest in the league. the average for top-10 5v5 scorers is about 61%.

93% of individual pts vs total on-ice GF was the highest in the league. top-10 scorers was 77%.

smaller sample of goals-for so 1-2 values can skew things mightly but given his TOI, coming back from injury, he was hella productive once again. this guy absolutely needs to stay healthy though for us.

Good analysis and spot on conclusion.

Would also note that for all the complaints about his East-Westing, Ehlers doesn't really play a peripheral game. He's driving, unpicking and (ideally) shooting all the time, and typically doesn't shy away from contact, corners or back-checking.

Which is kinda the paradox. If Ehlers plays a more Connor-esque game, he's likely more durable. But then he's doing much less of the stuff that makes him Ehlers and such a valuable player for the Jets, despite his usage.

 

[DRW204]

Good analysis and spot on conclusion.

Would also note that for all the complaints about his East-Westing, Ehlers doesn't really play a peripheral game. He's driving, unpicking and (ideally) shooting all the time, and typically doesn't shy away from contact, corners or back-checking.

Which is kinda the paradox. If Ehlers plays a more Connor-esque game, he's likely more durable. But then he's doing much less of the stuff that makes him Ehlers and such a valuable player for the Jets, despite his usage.

idk i find there's many players in the NHL that play a high-octane rush-offense style of play and they, and their team, seem fine. the best players in the league are usually creating scoring chances off the rush at high rates.

 

[Heldig]

 

[AlaskaJet]

I’d love to see an Ehlers spend time with Morrissey and develop his D-game along Morrisey’s lines..wouldn’t that be a thing to see..
I just wonder if Nik might not have the cardio that JoMo does..
Or the muscle..
Anyhoo, I can fantasize..

 

[Jetsfan79]

I believe I have seen some stats out there that show the Jets play worse when Ehlers is in the lineup v.s when he is out.. I believe the sample size on this was not very small either., If true, any theories on why?

 

[Gm0ney]

I believe I have seen some stats out there that show the Jets play worse when Ehlers is in the lineup v.s when he is out.. I believe the sample size on this was not very small either., If true, any theories on why?

I'd be curious to see those stats. Natural Stat Trick's Line Tool lets you see the With-Or-Without-You impact of a player (just put the same player in 2 dropdowns).

Last year at 5v5 the Jets were better with Ehlers on the ice in terms of GF% and every shooting stat you look at (CF%, FF%, xGF%, HDCF%, etc.).

If you look at rates, the Jets For-rates were significantly higher with Ehlers on the ice. But the Against-rates were very slightly worse - the most pronounced is xGA/60 where the Jets were 0.22/60 worse with Ehlers out there...but that's more that compensated by the xGF/60 with Ehlers on the ice: +0.74.

And it's the same story going back. From 2020-21 to 2022-23 the Jets outscored the opposition 3.30 to 2.06 when he's out there at 5v5 (+1.24). To compare, McDavid over the same stretch is 3.40 to 2.47 (+0.93).

If you're talking about W/L record when Ehlers is in or out - because last year the Jets were winning without him and then lost a lot when he came back, I'd be reluctant to blame that on him specifically.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I'd be curious to see those stats. Natural Stat Trick's Line Tool lets you see the With-Or-Without-You impact of a player (just put the same player in 2 dropdowns).

Last year at 5v5 the Jets were better with Ehlers on the ice in terms of GF% and every shooting stat you look at (CF%, FF%, xGF%, HDCF%, etc.).

If you look at rates, the Jets For-rates were significantly higher with Ehlers on the ice. But the Against-rates were very slightly worse - the most pronounced is xGA/60 where the Jets were 0.22/60 worse with Ehlers out there...but that's more that compensated by the xGF/60 with Ehlers on the ice: +0.74.

And it's the same story going back. From 2020-21 to 2022-23 the Jets outscored the opposition 3.30 to 2.06 when he's out there at 5v5 (+1.24). To compare, McDavid over the same stretch is 3.40 to 2.47 (+0.93).

If you're talking about W/L record when Ehlers is in or out - because last year the Jets were winning without him and then lost a lot when he came back, I'd be reluctant to blame that on him specifically.

Yep. Too many variables at play in that stretch of games.

I also feel like that "better without him" game has long been played (and lost) with Crosby as the man out.

Nik has been a very efficient producer for the Jets for a long time now, injuries notwithstanding. Here's the recent writeup for The Athletic:

Nikolaj Ehlers has been Winnipeg’s most consistent outperformer of his contract. He scores more often per minute of ice time than Kyle Connor does — and Connor is a first-line scorer by any metric, so that’s a huge compliment. He turned 27 on Valentine’s Day and has just two years left on his contract, keeping him safe from the model’s worst age-related regression. And if Ehlers’ contract were longer — say, the length of Morrissey’s — Ehlers would grade out as Winnipeg’s biggest value contract over the life of his deal.

 

[hn777]

I believe I have seen some stats out there that show the Jets play worse when Ehlers is in the lineup v.s when he is out.. I believe the sample size on this was not very small either., If true, any theories on why?

Source?

 

[Jetsfan79]

Source?

Do not have one. Not making a claim. I was asking around if my memory of this being a thing is correct or not. Gm0ney I think guessed right it and it was the win loss record I was remembering.

​

 

[10Ducky10]

Nikolaj Ehlers has been Winnipeg’s most consistent outperformer of his contract. He scores more often per minute of ice time than Kyle Connor does — and Connor is a first-line scorer by any metric, so that’s a huge compliment. He turned 27 on Valentine’s Day and has just two years left on his contract, keeping him safe from the model’s worst age-related regression. And if Ehlers’ contract were longer — say, the length of Morrissey’s — Ehlers would grade out as Winnipeg’s biggest value contract over the life of his deal.

If he could only stay healthy...............

 

[bennylundholm]

Yep. Too many variables at play in that stretch of games.

I also feel like that "better without him" game has long been played (and lost) with Crosby as the man out.

Nik has been a very efficient producer for the Jets for a long time now, injuries notwithstanding. Here's the recent writeup for The Athletic:

Nikolaj Ehlers has been Winnipeg’s most consistent outperformer of his contract. He scores more often per minute of ice time than Kyle Connor does — and Connor is a first-line scorer by any metric, so that’s a huge compliment. He turned 27 on Valentine’s Day and has just two years left on his contract, keeping him safe from the model’s worst age-related regression. And if Ehlers’ contract were longer — say, the length of Morrissey’s — Ehlers would grade out as Winnipeg’s biggest value contract over the life of his deal.

Borderline criminal how his ice time regular strength and especially PP is so low. Easily the most talented Jet.

 

[bumblebeeman]

Yep. Too many variables at play in that stretch of games.

I also feel like that "better without him" game has long been played (and lost) with Crosby as the man out.

Nik has been a very efficient producer for the Jets for a long time now, injuries notwithstanding. Here's the recent writeup for The Athletic:

Nikolaj Ehlers has been Winnipeg’s most consistent outperformer of his contract. He scores more often per minute of ice time than Kyle Connor does — and Connor is a first-line scorer by any metric, so that’s a huge compliment. He turned 27 on Valentine’s Day and has just two years left on his contract, keeping him safe from the model’s worst age-related regression. And if Ehlers’ contract were longer — say, the length of Morrissey’s — Ehlers would grade out as Winnipeg’s biggest value contract over the life of his deal.

I wonder if saying his contract is the biggest value takes into consideration that he misses 20-30 games a year?

 

[buggs]

Borderline criminal how his ice time regular strength and especially PP is so low. Easily the most talented Jet.

Very much hoping that with Wheeler's departure it causes us to rethink our PP and incorporate Ehlers. The dramatic improvement on zone entries and subsequent possession would almost certainly be a boon.

Even without Ehlers on PP1 I'm hoping we rethink our PP that has been fairly easy to defend due to its static nature. A change doesn't have to revolve around Ehlers of course, but how wouldn't he help?

 

[Gm0ney]

I wonder if saying his contract is the biggest value takes into consideration that he misses 20-30 games a year?

Ehlers has missed an average of 13 games per season over his career - including last season when he had a major injury (hernia) that required a long recovery (37 games missed). I believe a majority of NHL players miss at least one game a season due to injury. It's just part of the game. Should Crosby's contract be considered low value? He's missed about the same proportion of games over his career as Ehlers...

 

[bumblebeeman]

Ehlers has missed an average of 13 games per season over his career - including last season when he had a major injury (hernia) that required a long recovery (37 games missed). I believe a majority of NHL players miss at least one game a season due to injury. It's just part of the game. Should Crosby's contract be considered low value? He's missed about the same proportion of games over his career as Ehlers...

I guess I don't really understand the original post about why Ehlers contract is such good value? Like Connor makes a million more but over the past two years has scored almost double his points. Or Scheifele makes about the same amount and produces way more as well.

 

[10Ducky10]

Ehlers contract would be a deal if he played over 70 games a season.
He's played 287 games the last 5 seasons.
He's only played over 70 games in 4 seasons and 3 were his first 3 seasons in the league.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

I guess I don't really understand the original post about why Ehlers contract is such good value? Like Connor makes a million more but over the past two years has scored almost double his points. Or Scheifele makes about the same amount and produces way more as well.

If I produced 5 points in 5 games and you produced 8 points in 10 games, I would be the better player even though I missed 5 extra games. I add more value than you if I'm on the ice.

With Ehlers, he has less time of actual ice minutes due to injury and coaching. A lot less.
All things equal, if Ehlers was given the exact same minutes and opportunities (barring injuries) he would have surpassed KFC.
I hope this helps you.

 

[Gm0ney]

Ehlers contract would be a deal if he played over 70 games a season.
He's played 287 games the last 5 seasons.
He's only played over 70 games in 4 seasons and 3 were his first 3 seasons in the league.

One of those last 4 seasons was only 56 games, not 82...

 

[DRW204]

Ehlers contract would be a deal if he played over 70 games a season.
He's played 287 games the last 5 seasons.
He's only played over 70 games in 4 seasons and 3 were his first 3 seasons in the league.

One of those last 4 seasons was only 56 games, not 82...

and the other the Jets only had 71 games

no question though, ehlers needs to remain healthy. the past 2 years he has missed 57 regular season games and 4 (of 5) PO games

 

[bumblebeeman]

If I produced 5 points in 5 games and you produced 8 points in 10 games, I would be the better player even though I missed 5 extra games. I add more value than you if I'm on the ice.

With Ehlers, he has less time of actual ice minutes due to injury and coaching. A lot less.
All things equal, if Ehlers was given the exact same minutes and opportunities (barring injuries) he would have surpassed KFC.
I hope this helps you.

But he doesn't produce more ppg. The example should be Ehlers scoring 4 points in 5 games vs Connor scoring 10 points in 10 games.

I didn't know the value is based on scoring per minute of ice time, probably only at 5 on 5 right? I'm not sure that's the stat I would choose for how valuable a contract is. But anyways it would be great to see Ehlers get those extra minutes and see how he did with them. Also would be curious to know why every coach he's had in the NHL has chosen to give him less.

 

[Buffdog]

If I produced 5 points in 5 games and you produced 8 points in 10 games, I would be the better player even though I missed 5 extra games. I add more value than you if I'm on the ice.

With Ehlers, he has less time of actual ice minutes due to injury and coaching. A lot less.
All things equal, if Ehlers was given the exact same minutes and opportunities (barring injuries) he would have surpassed KFC.
I hope this helps you.

Would you rather have the guy who plays 5 games or the guy who plays 10?

At the end of the day, the guy who put up 8 points did more to help the team overall than the guy who put up 5

Also, there's no guarentee that ehlers would produce more given more minutes. It's possible more minutes would be vs better competition or those extra minutes would lead to fatigue that reduces his production

P/60 never extrapolates in a linear manner

 

[10Ducky10]

One of those last 4 seasons was only 56 games, not 82...

287 out of 373 games.
He averaged 63 out of 82 games the last 5 years...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers contract would be a deal if he played over 70 games a season.
He's played 287 games the last 5 seasons.
He's only played over 70 games in 4 seasons and 3 were his first 3 seasons in the league.

Sure, but you (and a bunch of others) are forgetting, or ignoring, that 2 of those seasons were shortened due to Covid. In 2020 he played 'only' 71 games - but that was all of the games that season. In 2021 he played 47 games. But he missed only 9.

The Ehlers is always injured thing is being way overstated. The last 2 years have been bad with 20 & 37 games missed. But there are so many injuries in hockey that it just isn't very unusual.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

But he doesn't produce more ppg. The example should be Ehlers scoring 4 points in 5 games vs Connor scoring 10 points in 10 games.

I didn't know the value is based on scoring per minute of ice time, probably only at 5 on 5 right? I'm not sure that's the stat I would choose for how valuable a contract is. But anyways it would be great to see Ehlers get those extra minutes and see how he did with them. Also would be curious to know why every coach he's had in the NHL has chosen to give him less.

I would also be curious as why Ehlers minutes have never been optimized by those coaches. If you find one to ask could you ask a 2nd question for me?
Why those same coaches played bad 4th line veterans over prospects in the AHL with higher upside?

Would you rather have the guy who plays 5 games or the guy who plays 10?

At the end of the day, the guy who put up 8 points did more to help the team overall than the guy who put up 5

Also, there's no guarentee that ehlers would produce more given more minutes. It's possible more minutes would be vs better competition or those extra minutes would lead to fatigue that reduces his production

P/60 never extrapolates in a linear manner

I simply stated why Ehlers value is high. I'm sorry you didn't find the answer satisfactory.