Edmonton Oilers (P2) vs LA Kings (P3) | LAK lead 1-0

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Brobust

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Sep 29, 2017
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A few things need to be repeated.

1) PP's do not go down in the playoffs. In fact the opposite is true.

2) The Oilers scored 235 goals while not on the pp. That is 4th best in the NHL behind only Seattle 241, NJD 240, Boston 239. LA had 205.

3) If you take the top 4 scores on all 4 playoff teams and remove look at goals scored 5 vs 5 while they were not on the ice here is what you get.

Oilers 45GF 35GA
LA 49GF 54GA

If you look since March 1st after Ekholm came without the top 4 on the ice the Oilers score 15 goals and gave up 10 5 vs 5. That's 2.41 GF/60 and 1.61 GA/60.

In fact if you do this for every playoff team the Oilers group has the second best GF% behind only Boston. So it is not true that the Oilers have been a poor 5 vs 5 team or lack depth scoring.

4) The Kings have the two most experienced players in Doughty and Koptitar but most of their team has little playoff experience. In fact, across the board the Oilers are the more experienced team.

None of this means that this will be an easy series. But there are a lot of misconceptions about teh two teams that keep popping up over and over.

Someone looked into it and basically the refs call everything in game 1 and by game 3 call nothing at all.
 

Porkleaker

Registered User
Mar 19, 2017
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................................ I feel like they should take this but its going to be harder than we think. McDavid and Draisaitl are lethal but there's less power plays in playoffs. They'll need secondary...........................................

Why do people keep parroting this narrative? Simply false as powerplays have been up (over reg season) in the playoffs for a number of years.
And this is the deadliest PP in the league. Special teams could win them a series alone.
 

Eternal Leaf

Registered User
Jul 4, 2011
8,112
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Toronto
Why do people keep parroting this narrative? Simply false as powerplays have been up (over reg season) in the playoffs for a number of years.
And this is the deadliest PP in the league. Special teams could win them a series alone.

You're right but it's also true that a majority of those penalties are called earlier in a series. I think The Athletic had an article on this. The deeper a series goes, the penalties dry up.

Still a good PP unit is key as the opportunities you do get can be cashed in.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
26,503
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Waterloo Ontario
Someone looked into it and basically the refs call everything in game 1 and by game 3 call nothing at all.
That is not what happens. What was stated in the article you are referencing was that late in a series or in the last round that pp's dropped to a rate that was about 7% less than it would be in the regulars season. That corresponds to one less pp opportunity roughly every 14 games than one would expect in the regular season. The point being...You have to get to that stage in the end teams with a better pp retain the advantage if pp's overall go up.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
26,503
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Waterloo Ontario
You're right but it's also true that a majority of those penalties are called earlier in a series. I think The Athletic had an article on this. The deeper a series goes, the penalties dry up.

Still a good PP unit is key as the opportunities you do get can be cashed in.
Again...dry-up is not the right way to phrase it. What the article showed is that late in a series or in later rounds pps revert to essentially the same rate as in the regular season. (See #482 above) And once more, the point is that youi have to get to that point. If you lose the special team war early you may never reach the latter part of the series.

In the end whether it is a marginal increase early followed by an even slighter decrease later the fact is that there is no decrease in the relevance of the pp in the playoffs.
 

Dempsey

Mark it zero
Mar 1, 2002
3,348
1,820
Ladner, BC
Oilers only NHL quality defencemen are Nurse and Ekholm. Replacing AHL trash with a better AHLer doesn't make a legit NHLer.

You're so bitter lol.

Maybe try respecting your opponent. That way if you beat them you actually accomplished something, and if they beat you you weren't beaten by "AHL trash". Talking down your opponent is seriously one of the dumbest things you can do.

The Kings are a really good team and we're going to be in tough to take them out. Their defensive game is very strong and they've got some real bright young players who will be looking to make a name for themselves.

See how easy that was?
 

Raccoon Jesus

Draft em but don't play em
Oct 30, 2008
62,778
64,639
I.E.
Well at least
Even if they're in I still favor the Oilers, but at that point every lucky bounce matters more.

For sure. I think the fully healthy Kings of a few weeks ago make it more of a 55-45 series in favor of the Oilers but without those two, it's an incredibly tall order, more like 70-30 in favor of the Oilers imo.

It looks like they MAY be in but they won't be full speed, anyway. Enough to get an extra goal or two but not enough to win the series.
 

missinthejets

Registered User
Dec 24, 2005
4,734
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Korpisalo has been a pain in the ass for Edmonton on more than one occasion and Skinner has had a solid season he is still a rookie and has had a few rookie moments throughout the year.. so to me that is the chance the kings have. Skaters the Oilers should carry this series pretty routinely, kings will try and make it a low event series but if there's a mismatch in goaltending theater is when it is up in the air because every chance becomes that much more meaningful.
 

Despote

Registered User
Mar 21, 2023
1,358
2,841
That is not what happens. What was stated in the article you are referencing was that late in a series or in the last round that pp's dropped to a rate that was about 7% less than it would be in the regulars season. That corresponds to one less pp opportunity roughly every 14 games than one would expect in the regular season. The point being...You have to get to that stage in the end teams with a better pp retain the advantage if pp's overall go up.
You'd have to look up how it effects the probability using multinomial distribution changing the weightings in each game. Latter games are a bit more meaningful on average due to multiple factors (problem of points and variance) but it's not like the early games don't matter and often times winning the series early is more valuable because of fatigue in a long playoff run becoming a factor so it's very complicated.

All in all as you said the differences are small enough where it's hard to say that powerplays matter less in the playoffs, especially considering there are more of them called overall.
 

Perfect_Drug

Registered User
Mar 24, 2006
16,027
12,769
Montreal
I really don't want Oilers to get cocky like we did last year.

Kings are a very formidable team, and every win will need to be earned.

I think this series is gonna be REALLY close. I'm expecting several 1-goal games.



Got mad love for Danault. I wish he signed with the Oilers.
 

Kingfan1967

Registered User
Oct 6, 2017
820
805
RNH would kick the shit out of grown-adult-who-calls-himself-Mikey lol.
Mickey Mantle has entered the chat
He was named to 20 All-Star Games, won a Gold Glove for his play in center field in 1962 and was a part of seven Yankees teams that won the World Series. He hit a record 18 home runs in his 12 appearances in the Fall Classic. Mantle was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1974.
 
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