Value of: Edmonton & Boston - not realistic but curious

[wintersej]

102 points isn't top caliber?

If you think he is going to get 50+ points on the power play away from McDrai operating an all time best power play, more power to you. I see a career of evidence of him being a 2nd line producer with some good versatility. The Bruins already have a younger one of those named Pavel Zacha.

 

[TFHockey]

If you think he is going to get 50+ points on the power play away from McDrai operating an all time best power play, more power to you. I see a career of evidence of him being a 2nd line producer with some good versatility. The Bruins already have a younger one of those named Pavel Zacha.

Zacha isn't exactly playing with scrubs. Marchand and Pastrnak are top flight NHL stars.

Zacha's top offensive year was last season at 57 points. That is an average year for RNH, who is just coming off of 102 points.

RNH doesn't play every minute with Drai and Connor, though he does get top PP time. You may not know this, but when Nuge was hurt the Oiler power play suffered big time. It was shocking to see but made clear to Oiler fans eyes how important RNH is to the line up.

Anyway, Zacha is a good player but I think objectively RNH is better.

Ask again in two-three years and the answer could very well be different.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

DeBrusk is probably a better player than Ekholm. He’s certainly having a better season this year.

Different positions obviously but the best players in this trade are, in order, Hyman, Swayman, DeBrusk, Ekholm, Grzelcyk, AHL goalie.

Wat?

An UFA, offensive winger, whose under a 0.5ppg UFA is worth squat; and while I do think Grzelcyk is solid, he's still nothing more than a soon to be UFA 3rd pairing defenceman.


As good as Swayman is, young starting goalie doesn't fetch a PPG winger and top pairing defenceman. Hell, I can't think of a single case where a goalie brought back a roster player, normally it's a top pick.

A 23 year old Varlamov to the Avs for returned a 1st and a 2nd
A 23YO Lehner (and fading, but serviceable Legward) to BUF got a 1st
A 24YO Bernier to TOR got a 2nd and change
A 25YO Halak got Eller (who was a recent 1st and had barely had a cup of coffee at the NHL)
A 26YO Andersen to TOR got a 1st and 2nd
A 27YO Schneider to NJ for got 1st

That's the window you're looking at for Swayman.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Swayman >>>>> Pickard, but Ekholm >>> Gryz and Hyman >>>> DeBrusk. Edmonton is worse overall after this.

Bold statement. Hyman was a career high 21 goal scorer in Toronto, before coming to ride shotgun with McDavid. His career highs in goals are 27 (at age 29) and 36 (at age 30). DeBrusk is 4 years younger, NOT skating with McDavid (nor Pastrnak for that matter), has career highs in goals of 27 (at age 22), 25 (age 25) and 27 (age 26). It’s fair to assume DeBrusk skating on McDavids wing and those goal totals increase.

I’m not suggesting DeBrusk is the better of the two, but it’s debatable. Your “Hyman >>>>>> DeBrusk/ big downgrade” is way off.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Hyman, 31 years old, and pedestrian stats away from McDavid.

Ekholm, will be 34 years old by seasons end. No thanks.

Pickard just stinks.

And Nugent Hopkins is an average 2nd liner who relies heavily on top PP mins, and also happens to ride shotgun with McDavid.

Edmonton & Boston not much of a fit in trade, other than in the offseason in an Ullmark for a 1st type move.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Bold statement. Hyman was a career high 21 goal scorer in Toronto, before coming to ride shotgun with McDavid. His career highs in goals are 27 (at age 29) and 36 (at age 30). DeBrusk is 4 years younger, NOT skating with McDavid (nor Pastrnak for that matter), has career highs in goals of 27 (at age 22), 25 (age 25) and 27 (age 26). It’s fair to assume DeBrusk skating on McDavids wing and those goal totals increase.

I’m not suggesting DeBrusk is the better of the two, but it’s debatable. Your “Hyman >>>>>> DeBrusk/ big downgrade” is way off.

Hyman just needed opportunity, you don't score 36 goals on a fluke. Couple that with the fact that Debrusk is a pending UFA that could just walk away in June, Hyman's value is much higher than DeBrusk's.

 

[I am Bettman]

You realize of course Swayman is the throw-in with any deal concerning Draisaitl.

Yeah I didn’t mean that it would be one for one. Of course Swayman would be part of a larger package.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Hyman just needed opportunity, you don't score 36 goals on a fluke. Couple that with the fact that Debrusk is a pending UFA that could just walk away in June, Hyman's value is much higher than DeBrusk's.

Opportunity? The McDavid opportunity. Bruins don’t have McDavid unfortunately. Hyman had 7 seasons worth of stats, before scoring 36 at age 30. Are we to believe he is just starting hitting his prime at age 30? It’s the McDavid factor 100%. Hyman on any other team reverts back to a 20 goal scorer.

DeBrusk will either be resigned by Boston or hit UFA in the summer. Bruins statistically are a top 10 team thus far, I don’t see them selling DeBrusk. He’s 4 years younger than Hyman. That’s a lifetime in hockey years.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Opportunity? The McDavid opportunity. Bruins don’t have McDavid unfortunately. Hyman had 7 seasons worth of stats, before scoring 36 at age 30. Are we to believe he is just starting hitting his prime at age 30? It’s the McDavid factor 100%. Hyman on any other team reverts back to a 20 goal scorer.

DeBrusk will either be resigned by Boston or hit UFA in the summer. Bruins statistically are a top 10 team thus far, I don’t see them selling DeBrusk. He’s 4 years younger than Hyman. That’s a lifetime in hockey years.

He paced for 33 goals and 28 goals on his last two seasons on the Leafs over a full season. Shortened years for Covid are throwing you off a bit, but Hyman is a very good player who you're undervaluing a lot.

Edmonton isn't selling Hyman either, and they're definitely not doing it for a pending UFA. Swayman would be nice, but I have no interest at all in the other Bruins pieces.

 

[VainGretzky]

DeBrusk is probably a better player than Ekholm. He’s certainly having a better season this year.

Different positions obviously but the best players in this trade are, in order, Hyman, Swayman, DeBrusk, Ekholm, Grzelcyk, AHL goalie.

Omg this take deserves to be in the facepalm hall of fame

 

[wintersej]

Wat?

An UFA, offensive winger, whose under a 0.5ppg UFA is worth squat; and while I do think Grzelcyk is solid, he's still nothing more than a soon to be UFA 3rd pairing defenceman.


As good as Swayman is, young starting goalie doesn't fetch a PPG winger and top pairing defenceman. Hell, I can't think of a single case where a goalie brought back a roster player, normally it's a top pick.

A 23 year old Varlamov to the Avs for returned a 1st and a 2nd
A 23YO Lehner (and fading, but serviceable Legward) to BUF got a 1st
A 24YO Bernier to TOR got a 2nd and change
A 25YO Halak got Eller (who was a recent 1st and had barely had a cup of coffee at the NHL)
A 26YO Andersen to TOR got a 1st and 2nd
A 27YO Schneider to NJ for got 1st

That's the window you're looking at for Swayman.

In fairness, DeBrusk has matured into a very good two way winger and very valuable PKer. Every player on the Bruins has better numbers with DeBrusk on his line than without (last I checked, at work now).

Hyman and DeBrusk have scored at similar rates except for last year when Hyman was with McJesus, with DeBrusk being the better goal scorer and younger.

This has been one of the larger "fan bases see very different value in players" gaps in a thread I have seen in a while, and I am not sure which fan base is more at fault.

I do think that EDM fans pointing to RNH and Hyman's numbers last year as if it was their "norm" isn't helping, though.

 

[wintersej]

He paced for 33 goals and 28 goals on his last two seasons on the Leafs over a full season. Shortened years for Covid are throwing you off a bit, but Hyman is a very good player who you're undervaluing a lot.

Edmonton isn't selling Hyman either, and they're definitely not doing it for a pending UFA. Swayman would be nice, but I have no interest at all in the other Bruins pieces.

If you want to play games with "pace", DeBrusk paced for 34 last year and 27 the year before.

They are very similar levels of offensive players. DeBrusk plays a bit quicker and has a much bigger role on the PK, and Hyman is a better player down low. Hyman is 4 years older, but already has a new contract. And obviously has *proven* chemistry with the Oilers stars. I can understand why the Oilers wouldn't want to make a move with Hyman out and DeBrusk in. And I can understand why Boston wouldn't want to get older in making that move. But, they are extremely similar caliber of players.

 

[Oates2Neely]

He paced for 33 goals and 28 goals on his last two seasons on the Leafs over a full season. Shortened years for Covid are throwing you off a bit, but Hyman is a very good player who you're undervaluing a lot.

Edmonton isn't selling Hyman either, and they're definitely not doing it for a pending UFA. Swayman would be nice, but I have no interest at all in the other Bruins pieces.

Hyman & DeBrusk have scored at similar paces. One has consistently had Matthews & McDavid as his center however.

Edmonton has only two desirable assets. & I don’t think either are up for trade.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

If you want to play games with "pace", DeBrusk paced for 34 last year and 27 the year before.

They are very similar levels of offensive players. DeBrusk plays a bit quicker and has a much bigger role on the PK, and Hyman is a better player down low. Hyman is 4 years older, but already has a new contract. And obviously has *proven* chemistry with the Oilers stars. I can understand why the Oilers wouldn't want to make a move with Hyman out and DeBrusk in. And I can understand why Boston wouldn't want to get older in making that move. But, they are extremely similar caliber of players.

Which is fine, but you have to understand why Oilers fans wouldn't want any part of one of the main pieces coming back being a pending UFA (that also plays the opposite wing of what we need)

We also have penalty killers and have had success there since Knoblauch took over, so penalty killing wouldn't necessarily have a lot of value.

Hyman & DeBrusk have scored at similar paces. One has consistently had Matthews & McDavid as his center however.

Edmonton has only two desirable assets. & I don’t think either are up for trade.

This again. Such a tired (bullshit) argument, especially coming from a team that has been reported to be sniffing around McLeod and RNH as recently as this summer.

As for linemates, don't think I don't know that his production has cratered this year now that he's not on Marchand and Bergeron's line anymore. Three goals in 20 games this year? Almost like - hear me out - DeBrusk needs good linemates to produce too and is incapable of doing it on his own?

 

[Oates2Neely]

Which is fine, but you have to understand why Oilers fans wouldn't want any part of one of the main pieces coming back being a pending UFA (that also plays the opposite wing of what we need)

We also have penalty killers and have had success there since Knoblauch took over, so penalty killing wouldn't necessarily have a lot of value.


This again. Such a tired (bullshit) argument, especially coming from a team that has been reported to be sniffing around McLeod and RNH as recently as this summer.

As for linemates, don't think I don't know that his production has cratered this year now that he's not on Marchand and Bergeron's line anymore. Three goals in 20 games this year? Almost like - hear me out - DeBrusk needs good linemates to produce too and is incapable of doing it on his own?

Nuge is a soft winger who averages 55 points & relies heavily on 1st unit PP TOI. Not a need for Boston. Hyman plays a Boston style but Sweeney is better served offering DeBrusk that contract as he’s 4 years younger than Hyman.

And no DeBrusk does not drive play on his own. He’s a bull in a China shop but he relies on having solid linemates in order to produce. Similar to what you have in Hyman. “Hyman >>>>>>>> DeBrusk” is complete bs.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Nuge is a soft winger who averages 55 points & relies heavily on 1st unit PP TOI. Not a need for Boston. Hyman plays a Boston style but there better off offering DeBrusk that contract as he’s 4 years younger than Hyman.

And no DeBrusk does not drive play on his own. He’s a bull in a China shop but he relies on having solid linemates in order to produce. Similar to what you have in Hyman.

Just having a much worse season and zero term. So Hyman's value to us is much higher. I'm glad we cleared that up.

 

[wintersej]

Which is fine, but you have to understand why Oilers fans wouldn't want any part of one of the main pieces coming back being a pending UFA (that also plays the opposite wing of what we need)

We also have penalty killers and have had success there since Knoblauch took over, so penalty killing wouldn't necessarily have a lot of value.


This again. Such a tired (bullshit) argument, especially coming from a team that has been reported to be sniffing around McLeod and RNH as recently as this summer.

As for linemates, don't think I don't know that his production has cratered this year now that he's not on Marchand and Bergeron's line anymore. Three goals in 20 games this year? Almost like - hear me out - DeBrusk needs good linemates to produce too and is incapable of doing it on his own?

DeBrusk has played half his career at LW and half at RW, so that isn't accurate, but I totally understand why Hyman out and DeBrusk in makes no sense for EDM.

I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that DeBrusk won't shoot 6% all year. At his regular shooting percentage he would be pacing for his regular mid-20s goals, and he is doing that without out PP1 time.

And yeah, obviously the Oilers have more pieces that are valuable. I suspect now that things have played out a bit with Poitras and Beecher making the roster that Boston's interest in someone like McLeod would be totally different.

In the end, I don't see anything between these teams until the offseason. Boston can't afford to move out a goalie for someone that isn't going to significantly help them up front, and the Oilers don't have "extra" good forwards to move for a goalie. Maybe there is some three way deal out there, but we all know talking three way deals on HFBoards is a waste of time.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Just having a much worse season and zero term. So Hyman's value to us is much higher. I'm glad we cleared that up.

DeBrusk average goals per season: 25
Hyman average goals per season: 24

“Hyman >>>>>>>>> DeBrusk, DeBrusk is a big downgrade from Hyman” is a garbage take.

DeBrusk is 27 yrs old, Hyman 31. Hyman has had Austin Matthews & McDavid as his primary centers through his career. If anything they’re very close in value. In fact when Hyman was 27 (BM: before McDavid) he averaged far less goals than DeBrusk does.

Why would the Bruins make that swap if they can just sign their player whom is 4 years younger and scores at the same pace?

 

[Cup or Bust]

The Oilers are likely only going to trade picks, prospects and maybe a lower tier roster player for a goalie. Most goalies that would even be available for trade likely available will have trade value much greater then that.

 

[Cup or Bust]

DeBrusk average goals per season: 25
Hyman average goals per season: 24

“Hyman >>>>>>>>> DeBrusk, DeBrusk is a big downgrade from Hyman” is a garbage take.

DeBrusk is 27 yrs old, Hyman 31. Hyman has had Austin Matthews & McDavid as his primary centers through his career. If anything they’re very close in value. In fact when Hyman was 27 (BM: before McDavid) he averaged far less goals than DeBrusk does.

Why would the Bruins make that swap if they can just sign their player whom is 4 years younger and scores at the same pace?

Hyman is the much better player right now and he can kill penalties, great on the powerplay. He actually drove offense better then Draisaitl and McDavid for a lot of the early part of the season. He makes things happen.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Hyman is the much better player right now and he can kill penalties, great on the powerplay. He actually drove offense better then Draisaitl and McDavid for a lot of the early part of the season. He makes things happen.

So your retort to statistics is to post your opinion that “Hyman is way betta”? Cool.
Also nice to hear that Draisaitl & McDavid rely on Hyman to drive their line.

DeBrusk also kills penalties. Which team has a better PK, Boston or Edmonton?

 

[Cup or Bust]

So your retort to statistics is to post your opinion that “Hyman is way betta”? Cool.
Also nice to hear that Draisaitl & McDavid rely on Hyman to drive their line.

DeBrusk also kills penalties. Which team has a better PK, Boston or Edmonton?

I never said Hyman drives the play for McDavid and Drisaitl but he is not completely dependent on them He creates a lot of chances himself. He doesn't have only 3 goals and 8 points on the season like Debrusk. Right now, he is definitely the better player and actually I can't see a time when he wasn't better then Debrusk. I like Debrusk as a player though.

 

[McJedi]

Omg this take deserves to be in the facepalm hall of fame

DeBrusk is a good play driver. Good 200 foot player. HF has a lot of dumb posters here that don't understand the game at all. That can only count goals or +/- in their evaluation of NHL players.

But the game is much deeper than that. He's produced well on XGF over his career. Good possession quality. Defensive point shares are consistently good. He barely ever gives away the puck. He's a responsible player. He's coming off two years of 25+ goals. He's a career 58% Fenwick/Corsi player.

Not bad at all for a middle six winger.

And for hockey stupid posters. DeBrusk has been a + player for every year of his career, but the one time he was a -1. He's +51 for his career.

The idea he's some scrub is absurd. Dude would easily slot into Edmonton's 2nd line. He's a much more reliable player than a dirt-bag like Evander Kane.

And I write all this as a fan of a western conference team that doesn't give a crap about Boston or DeBrusk. Ekholm is having a so-so season. He's a solid player too. But DeBrusk is in the same range of player as him.

The only guy in the trade that is trash is Pickard. Every other player is a viable NHL guy. So it's a trade of 2 NHL players from the Oilers for 3 NHL players from the Bruins. And the most important player would be the goalie that Edmonton badly needs unless they are seriously going to go with Skinner again in the playoffs, which went so well last year... Campbell ended up in the net and losing the season to Vegas in round 2.

 

[McJedi]

Wat?

An UFA, offensive winger, whose under a 0.5ppg UFA is worth squat; and while I do think Grzelcyk is solid, he's still nothing more than a soon to be UFA 3rd pairing defenceman.


As good as Swayman is, young starting goalie doesn't fetch a PPG winger and top pairing defenceman. Hell, I can't think of a single case where a goalie brought back a roster player, normally it's a top pick.

A 23 year old Varlamov to the Avs for returned a 1st and a 2nd
A 23YO Lehner (and fading, but serviceable Legward) to BUF got a 1st
A 24YO Bernier to TOR got a 2nd and change
A 25YO Halak got Eller (who was a recent 1st and had barely had a cup of coffee at the NHL)
A 26YO Andersen to TOR got a 1st and 2nd
A 27YO Schneider to NJ for got 1st

That's the window you're looking at for Swayman.

DeBrusk isn't an offensive winger at all. He's actually more of a defensive one. Do some research before you post nonsense.

 

[Oates2Neely]

I never said Hyman drives the play for McDavid and Drisaitl but he is not completely dependent on them He creates a lot of chances himself. He doesn't have only 3 goals and 8 points on the season like Debrusk. Right now, he is definitely the better player and actually I can't see a time when he wasn't better then Debrusk. I like Debrusk as a player though.

Ah so no need to look back at the 6 years worth of stats, let’s just take the first 20 games of this season & end the discussion there.

I’d suggest DeBrusk on McDavids wing would outscore Hyman.