Confirmed with Link: [EDM/SJS] Cody Ceci & EDM 3rd '25 <--> Ty Emberson

[McDNicks17]

You sure about your math here?

Good call.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

One goal every 15/16 minutes roughly equals to 4 goals every 60 minutes of play. That's not particularly good or remarkable even against the NHL's elite as that photo is making it out to be. It's also dumb to evaluate a player's performance against that competition in such a low sample size anyway.

I mean when you play on a vastly inferior team with vastly inferior teammates on the ice that isn't that bad at all. When you are a clear lottery team and you "only" give up 4 goals to the Leafs, Oilers, etc. that isn't that bad of a night at the office.

 

[Fourier]

One goal every 15/16 minutes roughly equals to 4 goals every 60 minutes of play. That's not particularly good or remarkable even against the NHL's elite as that photo is making it out to be. It's also dumb to evaluate a player's performance against that competition in such a low sample size anyway.

No question the sample size is too small to make any big conclusions based on the numbers which is why I said it was more important to focus on TOI. The main thing is that he was being trusted to play a lot against that line though even that needs context since we don't know each teams efforts to match lines.

Putting sample size aside, a 3.85 GA/60 vs Matthews is actually better than the norm. I would not say it was extraordinary but certainly for a young guy playing with another young partner in Ferraro managing a line with Matthews, Marner and Knies is a big task. They also gave up that one goal in a game Toronto won 7-1. The first game against Toronto, which the Leafs won 4-1, that pair held the Mathews line in check very well. Possession numbers were close to even. The Matthews, Marner, Knies line did not register a SCF in 6 minutes of 5 vs 5 play. They had 6 vs the rest of the Sharks team.

Again 30 games is a small sample size but given that a GA/60 of 2.41 5 vs 5 on a Shark team that gets chewed up most nights is actually very good. He actually had some pk time as well and his 5.38 GA/60 on the pk is in a small sample excellent. By comparison Ferraro's pk numbers were 9.87 GA/60 though if I had to guess I'd say that Ferraro probably had a much big percentage of his time vs the oppositions first unit. Ceci by the way was at 7.6 GA/60 for the regular season this year which is pretty close to his norm.

 

[joestevens29]

No question the sample size is too small to make any big conclusions based on the numbers which is why I said it was more important to focus on TOI. The main thing is that he was being trusted to play a lot against that line though even that needs context since we don't know each teams efforts to match lines.

Putting sample size aside, a 3.85 GA/60 vs Matthews is actually better than the norm. I would not say it was extraordinary but certainly for a young guy playing with another young partner in Ferraro managing a line with Matthews, Marner and Knies is a big task. They also gave up that one goal in a game Toronto won 7-1. The first game against Toronto, which the Leafs won 4-1, that pair held the Mathews line in check very well. Possession numbers were close to even. The Matthews, Marner, Knies line did not register a SCF in 6 minutes of 5 vs 5 play. They had 6 vs the rest of the Sharks team.

Again 30 games is a small sample size but given that a GA/60 of 2.41 5 vs 5 on a Shark team that gets chewed up most nights is actually very good. He actually had some pk time as well and his 5.38 GA/60 on the pk is in a small sample excellent. By comparison Ferraro's pk numbers were 9.87 GA/60 though if I had to guess I'd say that Ferraro probably had a much big percentage of his time vs the oppositions first unit. Ceci by the way was at 7.6 GA/60 for the regular season this year which is pretty close to his norm.

I see this move as one of those swings to maybe get a hidden gem.

The options are quite limited at this time of year for us, but we do need healthy bodies. If it doesn't work out then we will have to dig deeper and really look at a hockey trade, as I don't believe the pending UFA's especially on the right side are all that special.

 

[K1984]

I see this move as one of those swings to maybe get a hidden gem.

The options are quite limited at this time of year for us, but we do need healthy bodies. If it doesn't work out then we will have to dig deeper and really look at a hockey trade, as I don't believe the pending UFA's especially on the right side are all that special.

It's a guy that we are familiar with as well with Knoblauch coaching him in Hartford. Not like this is a pure analytics pickup, we have insight on his every day play and character as well.

I have no recollection of noticing this player while playing, so I am in no position to make predictions or judgements based on actual knowledge. However, this acquisition has the feel of a "I bet everyone is really happy with him instantly" type player.

The thing that scares me - he gets saddled up with Nurse which is basically the Bermuda Triangle for complimentary defensemen. From there he looks bad, then falls down the lineup without really getting a fair shot. Insane that we have to be legitimately fearful that our 10 year veteran $9M d man might make a 24 year old with 30 games experience look bad, but here we are.

 

[joestevens29]

It's a guy that we are familiar with as well with Knoblauch coaching him in Hartford. Not like this is a pure analytics pickup, we have insight on his every day play and character as well.

I have no recollection of noticing this player while playing, so I am in no position to make predictions or judgements based on actual knowledge. However, this acquisition has the feel of a "I bet everyone is really happy with him instantly" type player.

The thing that scares me - he gets saddled up with Nurse which is basically the Bermuda Triangle for complimentary defensemen. From there he looks bad, then falls down the lineup without really getting a fair shot. Insane that we have to be legitimately fearful that our 10 year veteran $9M d man might make a 24 year old with 30 games experience look bad, but here we are.

In a perfect world he'd be on the 3rd pairing with Kulak.

Any which way you slice it that defense is going to really need to work as a team.

Whoever ends up on 3rd pairing we are going to need them to really play some solid minutes, simply can't afford the third pairing to have off nights given the top 4.

 

[K1984]

In a perfect world he'd be on the 3rd pairing with Kulak.

Any which way you slice it that defense is going to really need to work as a team.

Whoever ends up on 3rd pairing we are going to need them to really play some solid minutes, simply can't afford the third pairing to have off nights given the top 4.

If Emberson can play quality third pair minutes with Kulak then I don't think we are really in a significantly different place than we were a year ago.

Ceci is a way different player than Stecher, but he was abysmal with Nurse and I don't know if it can really get a whole lot worse. Will (unfortunately) likely be another exercise of the top and bottom pairs doing their jobs, while we hand wring and bang our heads against the wall due to the performance of the second pair.

Stauffer has alluded to Nurse knowing he was shit last year and would be "the first one" to tell you that he has to be better. This has been the case for at least three years now, so I don't hold out a lot of hope that this is the case, but maybe, finally, Nurse has realized that his play is pathetic and he actually put time and effort into fixing it over the off season.

Out of all things we did this off season, Nurse pulling his head out of his ass and playing like a player that can actually be relied on would be the biggest "acquisition." There is 100% still a good Top 4, or even good Top 2 D man there, but it's a mystery how to get it out of him.

 

[joestevens29]

If Emberson can play quality third pair minutes with Kulak then I don't think we are really in a significantly different place than we were a year ago.

Ceci is a way different player than Stecher, but he was abysmal with Nurse and I don't know if it can really get a whole lot worse. Will (unfortunately) likely be another exercise of the top and bottom pairs doing their jobs, while we hand wring and bang our heads against the wall due to the performance of the second pair.

Stauffer has alluded to Nurse knowing he was shit last year and would be "the first one" to tell you that he has to be better. This has been the case for at least three years now, so I don't hold out a lot of hope that this is the case, but maybe, finally, Nurse has realized that his play is pathetic and he actually put time and effort into fixing it over the off season.

Out of all things we did this off season, Nurse pulling his head out of his ass and playing like a player that can actually be relied on would be the biggest "acquisition." There is 100% still a good Top 4, or even good Top 2 D man there, but it's a mystery how to get it out of him.

100%, although I wonder if part of it is them trying to make him something he isn't.

Past few years they seem to be trying to coach him to be a number 1. Maybe it's time to just tell him play his freaking game and who cares.

I mean the bad penalties were frustrating before from being too aggressive, but he still takes the stupid penalties and still gets caught out of position. Sometimes he's out of position from trying to be to passive too.

Over thinking seems to be harming him and the defense as a whole. At some point the coaches have to realize who he is and just play him to his strengths.

 

[K1984]

100%, although I wonder if part of it is them trying to make him something he isn't.

Past few years they seem to be trying to coach him to be a number 1. Maybe it's time to just tell him play his freaking game and who cares.

I mean the bad penalties were frustrating before from being too aggressive, but he still takes the stupid penalties and still gets caught out of position. Sometimes he's out of position from trying to be to passive too.

Over thinking seems to be harming him and the defense as a whole. At some point the coaches have to realize who he is and just play him to his strengths.

A win for me would be Nurse playing to the level of your average $5-6M Top 4 d man on a consistent basis. "Consistent basis" being the key caveat.

If he can just play a steady game that doesn't hurt you and doesn't have those multi-week stretches where he is absolutely abysmal, I'll sign up for that all day. Don't need points, don't need sexy numbers. Just play up to the level of an average #3 on a playoff team - not a massive ask that would make a huge difference for us, especially in the playoffs where his game usually craters.

 

[joestevens29]

A win for me would be Nurse playing to the level of your average $5-6M Top 4 d man on a consistent basis. "Consistent basis" being the key caveat.

If he can just play a steady game that doesn't hurt you and doesn't have those multi-week stretches where he is absolutely abysmal, I'll sign up for that all day. Don't need points, don't need sexy numbers. Just play up to the level of an average #3 on a playoff team - not a massive ask that would make a huge difference for us, especially in the playoffs where his game usually craters.

I wonder if he's went back to Adam Oates or an Adam Oates like skills coach.

It did drastically show in his game a few years back when he spent time with Oates. Maybe he just needs a refresher from him.

If Oates still does that type of training.

 

[McDNicks17]

I wonder if he's went back to Adam Oates or an Adam Oates like skills coach.

It did drastically show in his game a few years back when he spent time with Oates. Maybe he just needs a refresher from him.

If Oates still does that type of training.

I think a full training camp with Knob will help.

Historically, Nurse has great puck-moving numbers skating and passing pucks out of the zone, but he's been less than stellar making passes in-zone.

Knob's system is basically all in-zone passes, so hopefully some work on keys and reads there will help him do that more instinctually.

 

[fuswald]

I think Emberson will replace Desharnais with Kulak. Don't know who will replace Ceci beside Nurse.

Thought I'd bring this thread back in action.

 

[Dakinjor]

I think Emberson will replace Desharnais with Kulak. Don't know who will replace Ceci beside Nurse.

Thought I'd bring this thread back in action.

Unfortunately I think it’s Troy Stetcher ATM

 

[Mr Positive]

Unfortunately I think it’s Troy Stetcher ATM

Honestly I liked him. You got to think he's at least as good as Schultz/Shattenkirk/Deangelo considering age. But the rumor is that we want to add. That does push Brown pretty far from the team (edit: Josh brown I mean)

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Honestly I liked him. You got to think he's at least as good as Schultz/Shattenkirk/Deangelo considering age. But the rumor is that we want to add. That does push Brown pretty far from the team (edit: Josh brown I mean)

I mean we gave Stetcher less $ and term than Brown. Yet I see most people expecting Brown to be in Bako.

 

[Louis Cypher]

I'm very disappointed that Ceci is gone. He is a good defenceman, and often had the uneasy task of being Nurse's partner (and we know how bad everyone else looks in that role). He is a solid and good NHL-er, and it seemed like he was very popular with teammates. Hell, he even scored more goals than most forwards (incl. McDavid) in the Vancouver series.

He will be missed.

Bring him back at the deadline.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I mean we gave Stetcher less $ and term than Brown. Yet I see most people expecting Brown to be in Bako.

Brown's $$$ is likely a reason why he won't be on the main roster.

Outside of the willingness to get punched in the face by true heavyweights, I don't see what Josh Brown brings that Matt Kemp doesn't for 250k less. Considering they're in a spot to accrue cap space, every dollar under the cap matters.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

As for Emberson, I think he'll get the Broberg treatment.

Starts on the 3rd pair with Kulak to get his feet wet, but will move up once Stecher struggles or gets hurt.


Imo it feels like the Oil are wanting to build towards a blueline of...

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Emberson
Kulak-Wanner

Within the next year or two.

 

[fuswald]

As for Emberson, I think he'll get the Broberg treatment.

Starts on the 3rd pair with Kulak to get his feet wet, but will move up once Stecher struggles or gets hurt.


Imo it feels like the Oil are wanting to build towards a blueline of...

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Emberson
Kulak-Wanner

Within the next year or two.

As long as we hang on to Kulak. Not sure of numbers but he always seemed responsible and helped make Desharnais look good. Don't think he had a day off either. Plus minus zero not especially good though the year before without Vinnie he was a plus 11

 

[FlameChampion]

I think a full training camp with Knob will help.

Historically, Nurse has great puck-moving numbers skating and passing pucks out of the zone, but he's been less than stellar making passes in-zone.

Knob's system is basically all in-zone passes, so hopefully some work on keys and reads there will help him do that more instinctually.

I really hope so lol

I remember being excited for a full training camp of Woodcroft though.

Now I think Knoblauch is much better but I am curious how management/coaches make decisions this training camp because the last couple have been abysmal.

 

[Gordy Elbows]

I really hope so lol

I remember being excited for a full training camp of Woodcroft though.

Now I think Knoblauch is much better but I am curious how management/coaches make decisions this training camp because the last couple have been abysmal.

I think the difference in training camps will be noticeable. Woodcroft tried to merge the Bako training needs into the Oilers camp…almost equal priority. Probable reason was because he wanted to help out the new coach in Bako - Chalk.
This year, Knoblauch can focus on the main priorities for the Oilers while Chalk can do the same in Bako later.

 

[FlameChampion]

I think the difference in training camps will be noticeable. Woodcroft tried to merge the Bako training needs into the Oilers camp…almost equal priority. Probable reason was because he wanted to help out the new coach in Bako - Chalk.
This year, Knoblauch can focus on the main priorities for the Oilers while Chalk can do the same in Bako later.

I don’t think Woodcroft did much for Bakersfield prospects honestly. Maybe one or two played well under him. He didn’t really empower players in general. Rosters was pretty much set before training camp started. I would thought him being the AHL coach would of resulted in him getting and playing young players more but it wasn’t really the case.

He wasn’t able to do much once the PP went cold.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I mean we gave Stetcher less $ and term than Brown. Yet I see most people expecting Brown to be in Bako.

The Oilers essentially pre-purchased their depth d-man trade deadline shopping early with Stetcher and Brown getting x2 and x3 buryable salaries. Add Emberson's cheap deal too. They are stocked with #6 - #8 dmen options with poison pill multi-year deals on Stetcher and Brown which make them safe waiver wire clear guys.

Oilers will be able to target clear roster upgrades at 2RD and maybe other positional needs if it presents itself while using their depth draft picks for retention, double retention if needed instead of end of roster depth d as had been a Holland tradition.

Emberson, age and career arch, is the guy who is going to get a long leash to evaluate if there's any truth in his 30 game NHL sample size and American League season with Knoblauch.