Proposal: Edm - Dal

[ManofSteel55]

It’s almost like the game is played
Primarily 5on5 and not on the power play

So Powerplay doesn't count. Good to know.

 

[Hoglander]

Very poor value for RNH, but it has me thinking... at this point, why would RNH block a trade to get out of that steaming pile? Hasn't he had enough punishment already?

 

[bucks_oil]

To Dallas
R. Nugent-Hopkins

To Edmonton
B. Holtby
R. Faksa

Edit: picks to balance out?

I think for Edmonton to consider this, there would have to be a considerable add from Dallas.

I mean Faksa is probably a better fit as a 3C, if that's what we want to do, but RNH is far more versatile and more valuable. He scores at about twice the rate, is a huge part of BOTH special teams for us (where Faksa would only be PK). UFA Holtby doesn't bridge the gap.

If we swap Oettinger for Holtby we could talk, maybe that means we need to add given Oettinger's (as yet unrealized) potential... but zero chance we downgrade on RNH's versatility for a UFA goalie.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think for Edmonton to consider this, there would have to be a considerable add from Dallas.

I mean Faksa is probably a better fit as a 3C, if that's what we want to do, but RNH is far more versatile and more valuable. He scores at about twice the rate, is a huge part of BOTH special teams for us (where Faksa would only be PK). UFA Holtby doesn't bridge the gap.

If we swap Oettinger for Holtby we could talk, maybe that means we need to add given Oettinger's (as yet unrealized) potential... but zero chance we downgrade on RNH's versatility for a UFA goalie.

Adding Oettinger really changes up the balance here. Can't see Dallas doing that at all.

 

[bucks_oil]

Adding Oettinger really changes up the balance here. Can't see Dallas doing that at all.

I know we'd need to add, but it isn't like he's set the world on fire in the NHL yet. Plenty of time for that, I know.

But there are plenty of highly touted goalie prospects that get moved early in their career and plenty of 1st rounders that don't make it.

Not saying Dallas doesn't move him, but they are getting quite an upgrade on Faksa in RNH. Is the gap worth a prospect goalie, maybe not... do we add a 2nd? If he's at all tradable in Dallas' eyes, it shouldn't be more than that. If he's not at all tradable, then it doesn't matter what we add.

 

[OG Eberle]

It’s almost like the game is played
Primarily 5on5 and not on the power play

So with this rationale, the team that scores more goals 5v5 in a game should win the game, even if the opposing team scores more overall thanks to special teams? Cause 5v5 goals are more valuable to you than powerplay or shorthanded goals?

I don't think I've ever seen fans of a sport manipulate stats to fit some crazy narrative that makes no sense in real-life more than hockey fans.

To quote an Oilers fan…

The guy has 24 points at 5v5 in his last 82 games playing almost every single minute with McDavid or Draisaitl.

He gives you the offensive depth of a below average third liner.

Milan Lucic has triple Nuges goal production this year

This is some Tambellini/Chiarelli logic if I've ever seen some...

Counter-point: RNH has double Lucic's point totals this year AND almost 4x his assist production... in 6 less games

"Offensive depth of a below average third liner"

 

[Three On Zero]

So with this rationale, the team that scores more goals 5v5 in a game should win the game, even if the opposing team scores more overall thanks to special teams? Cause 5v5 goals are more valuable to you than powerplay or shorthanded goals?

I don't think I've ever seen fans of a sport manipulate stats to fit some crazy narrative that makes no sense in real-life more than hockey fans.



This is some Tambellini/Chiarelli logic if I've ever seen some...

Counter-point: RNH has double Lucic's point totals this year AND almost 4x his assist production... in 6 less games

"Offensive depth of a below average third liner"

5v5 is a constant and known, Powerplays aren’t.

but anyways this is a trade proposal and not a contract discussion

 

[OG Eberle]

5v5 is a constant and known, Powerplays aren’t.

but anyways this is a trade proposal and not a contract discussion

A look back over the teams that finished in the top five in power play percentage dating back to the 2011-12 season shows that 19 of the 25 qualified for the postseason. The interesting nuance is that through last season, none of them made it past the second round and eight of them went out in the first.

Does power-play success equate to winning in the playoffs?

For further context, the quote of this article was written during playoffs in 2016.

Regular season powerplay seems to be highly correlated with making the playoffs. Doesn't necessarily translate to playoff success, but seems good teams score on the powerplay. So again, seems like a weird thing to just eliminate from a players stats and arbitrarily call a borderline PPG two-way player a low end third liner as a result.

 

[IIxGURUxII]

How so? Length may be an issue but it isn't one of those deals that is front loaded heavily or with tons of bonuses.

It's the cost of the buy out in the final 3 years ..

Don't get me wrong .. I'm all for keeping nuge .. was just pointing out that part

 

[TFHockey]

Good grief, now RNH isn't good enough and his contract is too high?

Watch how the Oilers game changes now that Nuge is back in the line up. Finally Tippett is playing to our center depth, which if deployed correctly is among the best in the league.

I see that McLeod is slotted in the top six and Perlini has been moved down even though he scored the go ahead goal in Calgary. So we still have Derek Ryan in at 4C.

Sure. Tippett is going to Tippett.

 

[Czechboy]

I mean Faksa is probably a better fit as a 3C, i

It's a anamoly...

Faksa is better suited to 3C is true.

RNH is a superior player is also true.

I agree with another poster that we are finally using our centre depth which is world class.. I do wonder though, has RNH ever had success as a 3C? It's all stereotypes but I picture a 3C as someone like Faksa.. eats minutes, some points, big dude and can PK. This could very well be a poor perception of a 3C but that's mine.lol

 

[coopooter]

10 points in 30 games @ 5v5

So pp points dont count any more?

 

[McDNicks17]

Good grief, now RNH isn't good enough and his contract is too high?

Watch how the Oilers game changes now that Nuge is back in the line up. Finally Tippett is playing to our center depth, which if deployed correctly is among the best in the league.

I see that McLeod is slotted in the top six and Perlini has been moved down even though he scored the go ahead goal in Calgary. So we still have Derek Ryan in at 4C.

Sure. Tippett is going to Tippett.

They've been hiding RNH on the wing for a reason. He hasn't been a competent center in ages.

He has 9 points and a 38% GF at 5v5 in 743 minutes over the last three seasons without McDrai on the ice with him.

 

[ManofSteel55]

They've been hiding RNH on the wing for a reason. He hasn't been a competent center in ages.

He has 9 points and a 38% GF at 5v5 in 743 minutes over the last three seasons without McDrai on the ice with him.

Over the last three seasons, if he isn't on the ice with McDrai, who in the hell is he on the ice with? Expecting anyone who isn't a superstar to put up a ton of points with the Oilers depth players isn't exactly fair.

 

[TFHockey]

They've been hiding RNH on the wing for a reason. He hasn't been a competent center in ages.

He has 9 points and a 38% GF at 5v5 in 743 minutes over the last three seasons without McDrai on the ice with him.

I think that RNH can very easily slide into the 3C role. Bluntly, he is probably too good for that role but we don't have a credible in house replacement right now. McLeod should be playing 4C over Ryan, but it looks like right now we temporarily have some wingers jigsaw puzzles to work out. Is Kane part of that solution? I dunno but it looks like we might get that answer soon.

Anyway, if all anyone can do is complain about RNHs 5v5 numbers we can pick apart the entire team for that. I think he can handle 3c duties easily enough.

 

[McDNicks17]

Over the last three seasons, if he isn't on the ice with McDrai, who in the hell is he on the ice with? Expecting anyone who isn't a superstar to put up a ton of points with the Oilers depth players isn't exactly fair.

There's a pretty big gap between "a ton of points" and the Gaetan Haas/Derek Ryan-esque production he has away from McDrai.

His P/60 away from McDrai in those three seasons would have him ranked 452nd out of 456 regular forwards. He's an absolute blackhole when he tries to drive a line on his own.

 

[TFHockey]

There's a pretty big gap between "a ton of points" and the Gaetan Haas/Derek Ryan-esque production he has away from McDrai.

His P/60 away from McDrai in those three seasons would have him ranked 452nd out of 456 regular forwards. He's an absolute blackhole when he tries to drive a line on his own.

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised with RNH at 3C. Let's see how it goes, shall we?

 

[Sweetpotato]

Nuge has a full no movement clause throughout his whole contract. He took a sizable discount just for that to be part of the contract. He's mentioned almost too many times that he wants to play for Edmonton his entire career. He'll never waive his NMC, especially in the first few years of his new contract. If/when McDavid and Draisaitl leave (2025 and 2026), and if Edmonton sinks as a result, he'd likely consider waiving it, but he'd be well into his 30s by then, and his value will be a fraction of what it is today. Him and Darnell made it clear in the summer, they want to play for Edmonton their whole career, with both signing max term deals that will run into their mid 30s. As an Oiler fan, that's so heart warming to see, as the vast majority of players, usually want out of here by the time their contract expires, or just simply would never sign here as a free agent.

If you're looking for a center, as a Stars fan I'd be taking a look at Lafreniere in New York. He's not nearly living up to the hype thus far, but he's full of potential that may get realized with a different team/system. Could be a Seguin 2.0, or better

He's not a center.

 

[bucks_oil]

It's a anamoly...

Faksa is better suited to 3C is true.

RNH is a superior player is also true.

I agree with another poster that we are finally using our centre depth which is world class.. I do wonder though, has RNH ever had success as a 3C? It's all stereotypes but I picture a 3C as someone like Faksa.. eats minutes, some points, big dude and can PK. This could very well be a poor perception of a 3C but that's mine.lol

That's my perception of a 3C as well, but you are right it is a bias based on "traditionalism".

Can RNH be an effective 3C? I think he can, he's already our most defensively responsible center. We've been using him power-vs-power in McDavid's first couple years and he actually had his best seasons and didn't get caved. What we will need to do though is:
1) surround him with defensively responsible wingers (rather than Eberle/Lucic), and
2) adjust our expectations about him offensively... he's not going to put up 60-70 points and outscore. If we are lucky though he can outscore the opposition and settle into 40-50 point range.

Would I trade RNH for a "traditional" 3C? Only if trading-down allows me to get another reasonable piece. A (lately inconsistent) UFA goalie isn't enough.

 

[ManofSteel55]

There's a pretty big gap between "a ton of points" and the Gaetan Haas/Derek Ryan-esque production he has away from McDrai.

His P/60 away from McDrai in those three seasons would have him ranked 452nd out of 456 regular forwards. He's an absolute blackhole when he tries to drive a line on his own.

That's because when he isn't on the ice with McDrai, he's been on the ice with guys putting up Gaetan Haas/Derek Ryan/Kyle Turris point totals. Especially before this year. At least this year we have Foegle on the 3rd line instead of trying to force in some scrub from the farm in that role. He isn't put with McDavid and Draisaitl to hide him. He's played there because if he anchored his own 3rd line, he'd be a playmaker with nobody to pass to. That's not a recipe for success at all.

 

[bucks_oil]

They've been hiding RNH on the wing for a reason. He hasn't been a competent center in ages.

He has 9 points and a 38% GF at 5v5 in 743 minutes over the last three seasons without McDrai on the ice with him.

... with most common linemates named Khaira, Kahun, Turris, etc.

This is the first year we've had more than 2 top six wingers. When we get Hyman back (and if we sign Kane and/or call up Holloway) we actually might have some legit wingers to spread across three lines.

Let's see how that goes.

 

[TFHockey]

... with most common linemates named Khaira, Kahun, Turris, etc.

This is the first year we've had more than 2 top six wingers. When we get Hyman back (and if we sign Kane and/or call up Holloway) we actually might have some legit wingers to spread across three lines.

Let's see how that goes.

If we carry this thought process further:

Kane - McDavid - Holloway
Hyman - Draisaitl - Puljujarvi
Foegele - RNH - Yamamoto
Perlini - McLeod - Kassian

Sceviour/Shore/Ryan

Is this what other teams mean by depth? Guys NOT playing out of position and having options all over the place? What sorcery is this?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

There's a pretty big gap between "a ton of points" and the Gaetan Haas/Derek Ryan-esque production he has away from McDrai.

His P/60 away from McDrai in those three seasons would have him ranked 452nd out of 456 regular forwards. He's an absolute blackhole when he tries to drive a line on his own.

I think RNH against other third lines will put up numbers. His primary role at 5v5 has been that of a defensive conscience so McDavid/Drai can run around and do their thing.

Gimme pairs once the Kane crap goes through:

Kane/McDavid
Draisaitl/Puljujarvi
RNH/Yamamoto

Spice in Hyman, Foegele, and McLeod as you like.

 

[OG Eberle]

They've been hiding RNH on the wing for a reason. He hasn't been a competent center in ages.

He has 9 points and a 38% GF at 5v5 in 743 minutes over the last three seasons without McDrai on the ice with him.

For some context:

Over 3 full seasons, there is a total of 14760mins played. So RNH stats over 743 mins is litterally 5% of his total ice time (not factoring missed games or injury).

Your argument is basically that the 5% of his time he hasn't been with McDrai, he hasn't produced the same. Which is flawed in a number of ways, not to mention the fact that a vast majority of his time is with one of those two, and then your faulting him for essentially playing with brand new players he typically doesn't every now and then and isn't as productive. Chemistry is a thing.

Unless you view or think RNH is supposed to be as productive as McDrai OR as productive playing with Shore, Ryan, *insert 3rd/4th liners*, OR he is somehow compensated similarly and expected to be the same as McDrai, there is no reason to think he should be doing the same.

Quite litterally every player on the planet would put up more points playing with McDrai than without.

He is paid like a middle 6 forward and produces like a high end two-way 2nd liner at that.

 

[McDNicks17]

For some context:

Over 3 full seasons, there is a total of 14760mins played. So RNH stats over 743 mins is litterally 5% of his total ice time (not factoring missed games or injury).

Your argument is basically that the 5% of his time he hasn't been with McDrai, he hasn't produced the same. Which is flawed in a number of ways, not to mention the fact that a vast majority of his time is with one of those two, and then your faulting him for essentially playing with brand new players he typically doesn't every now and then and isn't as productive. Chemistry is a thing.

Unless you view or think RNH is supposed to be as productive as McDrai OR as productive playing with Shore, Ryan, *insert 3rd/4th liners*, OR he is somehow compensated similarly and expected to be the same as McDrai, there is no reason to think he should be doing the same.

Quite litterally every player on the planet would put up more points playing with McDrai than without.

He is paid like a middle 6 forward and produces like a high end two-way 2nd liner at that.

Where on earth did you get 14 thousand minutes? haha

He played 2064 minutes at 5v5 over those three seasons, so for 36% of the time, he was producing like a replacement level 4th liner.