Proposal: Edm-Col-Ana

[Exit Dose]

Let's look at an example then, shall we?

Mike Knuble. He was a depth playing checker until 30, but was given a 2nd line role and scored 20 goals for 8 straight years after, including a pair of 30 goal seasons. Before his breakout he was a 20 point player, one outlier aside. So would it have been accurate to call him a third/fourth line player after a couple of seasons where he scored 30 goals and followed it up with another 20, simply because he had 6 years before of being a depth checker?

Not to mention that if you look at Pouliot's on ice performance for the past 2 seasons, it is quite obvious that he is a more effective (ie, better) player (or just used properly?) than he was earlier in his career.

Actually, the study of statistics predicts that clustering of results like that will happen. It's why most mathematicians reject the notions of 'streaks' or 'sophomore slumps'. Is his scoring rate during that time what you would expect with a second liner? Sure, but why would anyone resort to only looking at that cherry picked sample.

 

[TOGuy14]

EDM: T. Barrie
COL: C. Fowler + G. Reinhart
ANA: EDM 2017 1st (top 5 protected, '18 1st if top 5) + B. Pouliot (25% retained, 3M cap)

Edmonton moves useless pieces for Tyson Barrie.

OP is EDM fan.

Starting to see correlation here...

 

[HanSolo]

Your failure to understand logic is absurd.

The statement that I am refuting is that if a player is injured it lessens their impact while on the ice. People have suggested that because Pouliot has missed a number of games in the last 2 years it makes him a 3rd line player. I am suggesting that a player doesn't go from being a 2nd line player down to a 3rd line player simply due to injuries. Crosby was one example to support that theory. It is your failure if you can not understand the difference between evidence to support a theory and actually comparing two very different level players.

My question remains is such. Was Crosby a 3rd line player in 11/12 when he put up 37 points, or was he a 1st line player with injury issues?

I'm not failing to see your point. I understand your point. I'm not a moron. I never indicated in my post that I didn't understand what you're trying to say. I get the PPG under injury conditions argument, my brain works I swear.

Crosby is still an absurd comparison. You picked one season from the career of one of the best players of this generation and compared it to the greater sample of Pouilot's entire career. When we get to establishing how to categorize a player, Crosby still has a longer reputation as an elite first line center and one injury addled season doesn't make him a second line center. Same goes for Getzlaf who had two bad years. It doesn't make him a second line caliber center. Pouilot's PPG suggests he can produce at a top 6 level. You're right. But he's not as established as such because injuries did not allow him to be. PPG is a fickle stat Silfvergberg had an awful PPG for half of last year and finished strong and almost had 50 points. What would happen if he missed the second half of the season? The PPG would show that he's a bottom 6 depth scorer. Actual production trumps projected production every time.

 

[HanSolo]

Ok now we are getting somewhere. You're admitting other factors play a role here. One of which is track record. We are able to make the conclusion that it was an outlier because of his track record. Take Haglin most recent games. In 37 games for the penguins he scored 27 points. 1st line winger production. So, since Hanglin prouced like a 1st liner on the penguins, he must be a 1st liner. right? Niether is an accurate descrpition of the player.

Bump cause new page sank it. Agreed.

 

[Sojourn]

This isn't a value discussion. This discussion is whether Benoit Pouliot is a 2nd liner or a 3rd liner.

I think Pure nailed it by labeling him a middle six forward.

Pouliot has no seasons where he has broken 40 points. You can create all the excuses for why this is the case that you want, but that's the way it has played out. There are 82 games in an NHL season, and whether Pouliot is healthy or not, those games still need to be played.

When he has played a full season, he isn't scoring enough to be a top six guy, and when he scores enough to be a top six guy he can't stay healthy long enough to pencil him into a full time spot.

Crosby had 37 points in 11/12. I guess he must have been an injury prone 3rd liner that season, right? I mean, he was over 1.5 ppg that season, but ppg doesn't matter when a player can't surpass 40 points.

You mean the guy who has multiple 100+ point seasons? Multiple Art Ross Trophies? Multiple Harts? Multiple Pearsons? You didn't really think that comparison through, did you?

Pouliot's career high is 36 points in 80 games. Crosby has proven what he can do in a full season. The only thing Pouliot has shown is that even when he plays a full season he can't hit 40 points.

Well, I would suggest that Edmonton has a better top six than the Rangers and Pouliot has done well for us. I would also suggest that the Rangers having Pouliot playing 2nd line LW instead of J.T. Miller wouldn't be any worse off, might even be better.

Health affects value, but doesn't affect whether a player is a 2nd liner or a 3rd liner.

Sure it does. That's where consistency comes into play. 3rd line forwards are still talented, and they can still produce at times, but often the difference between a legitimate 2nd line forward, and a 3rd line forward, is the ability to produce on a consistent basis. With the grind of the long season, the ups and downs of said season, match ups, and health. If Pouliot is only producing at a top six level when he's better rested, and not worn down over the course of a long season, I wouldn't call him a true top six forward because I wouldn't be able to count on him to be that, whether it's Game 1, Game 41, or Game 82.

Sure, maybe he'd be a top six forward if the NHL only had 50 games a season, but it doesn't. He isn't the only player who would benefit from that either.

 

[go4hockey]

Nice to see this thread turn into a pissing contest about weather a guy is a 2nd liner or a 3rd liner when it has little or nothing to do with the thread. Why in the hell is this thing still open as it hasn't been about the OP in forever.

 

[thadd]

Screw top 5 protected. That's totally gotta be unprotected.

 

[HanSolo]

Nice to see this thread turn into a pissing contest about weather a guy is a 2nd liner or a 3rd liner when it has little or nothing to do with the thread. Why in the hell is this thing still open as it hasn't been about the OP in forever.

I've been asking this about every Fowler proposal that devolves from a discussion about the trade's value to why Cam Fowler is one of the worst defensemen on the planet.

 

[AslanRH]

This isn't a value discussion. This discussion is whether Benoit Pouliot is a 2nd liner or a 3rd liner.

It is supposed to be a value discussion since it is a trade proposal thread.

If you want to keep arguing what line Pouliot belongs on, then hit the General thread, make a poll thread, whatever. Discuss until your keyboard can't take anymore.

Regarding a trade thread (which is the only reason anyone in this thread should care about Pouliot at all) all that matters is what his value is.

A second liner who cant stay healthy is worth even less than a 3rd liner who can.

What gm wants to pay 4mil for less than 60 games?

I'll call him a 2nd liner if it makes you happy, but this is what it really comes down to.

 

[CupofOil]

I think Pure nailed it by labeling him a middle six forward.

Pouliot has no seasons where he has broken 40 points. You can create all the excuses for why this is the case that you want, but that's the way it has played out. There are 82 games in an NHL season, and whether Pouliot is healthy or not, those games still need to be played.

When he has played a full season, he isn't scoring enough to be a top six guy, and when he scores enough to be a top six guy he can't stay healthy long enough to pencil him into a full time spot.

I could buy the argument that in general he's a middle six player but I don't like this never eclipsed 20 goals, 40 points to further the argument that he's not a 2nd line player. DO you think that he wouldn't have scored 1 goal and 6 points in 24 games two seasons ago to reach either of those marks? Come on now.

The bottom line is that he has produced 2nd line numbers in Edmonton and 3rd line numbers elsewhere. There's no disputing this. 33 goals and 70 points in 113 games over two seasons is quite clearly 2nd line numbers. Doesn't mean he's a 2nd liner necessarily because those two seasons could be outliers but in Edmonton, he has produced at a 2nd line level.

Also, I think most would agree that Anaheim wouldn't deal Fowler for Pouliot or a protected 1st rounder as a centerpiece. I'd be interested in Montour though, not sure what Ducks fans would be interested in for him.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

He was 52 in the league last season p60 Do you even hockey? Which would of been 2nd on the Ducks .

That is somewhat misleading, McDavid significantly boosted his productivity when they were together. 2/3 of his 5 on 5 points had McDavid involved, all pouliots metric stats significantly went down away from him. Also he has never even gotten to 40 points be it due to injuries or whatever, so if he can't stay on the ice his projectable stats aren't as valuable until he can play 80 games

 

[Spazkat]

Well, then perhaps it is fair to say he's a second line player for 2/3 of a season. If your team doesn't really need him for that other 1/3, then he probably has really good value

This guy wins the thread. I could see using ppg or pp60 if he had ever even once shown he can maintain that level acorss a full season of play <like the Crosby analogy> but he hasn't. To be 30 and never once hit 40 points... its disingenuous at best to portray him that way

 

[Not So Mighty]

I don't think it's fair for ANA or COL, but I'm surprised with how little value Edmonton's 1st is getting. I mean, this is the Oilers were talking about

Yeah but it's top five protected. Who wants that when trading with the Oilers?

 

[snipes]

Yeah but it's top five protected. Who wants that when trading with the Oilers?

Exactly. Given our history, any deal involving our 1st in 2017 would have to be unprotected.

As for the OP, Ducks get screwed in this deal. It's not fair to them at all. Besides, it's unlikely ANA wants to be part of any deal that helps us get legit Dmen, directly or indirectly.

We're coming after the Cali teams, they have no interest in helping us. They want to keep their hegemony in the Pacific for as long as they can. The gap is closing on them though.

 

[Mashed Potatoes]

Why would Anaheim do this?

 

[tony d]

Anaheim gets ripped off big time here. Edmonton and Colorado make out pretty well though.

 

[Ducksgo*]

I don't think it's fair for ANA or COL, but I'm surprised with how little value Edmonton's 1st is getting. I mean, this is the Oilers were talking about

It's top 5 protected which makes the offer not just bad as it is. But much worst.

 

[Ducksgo*]

Exactly. Given our history, any deal involving our 1st in 2017 would have to be unprotected.

As for the OP, Ducks get screwed in this deal. It's not fair to them at all. Besides, it's unlikely ANA wants to be part of any deal that helps us get legit Dmen, directly or indirectly.

We're coming after the Cali teams, they have no interest in helping us. They want to keep their hegemony in the Pacific for as long as they can. The gap is closing on them though.

Exactly and it's top 5 protected? Anaheim has to wait 2 years before benefiting off the fowler trade? Cmon man that's horrendous

 

[Chayos]

EDM: T. Barrie
COL: C. Fowler + G. Reinhart
ANA: EDM 2017 1st (top 5 protected, '18 1st if top 5) + B. Pouliot (25% retained, 3M cap)

Col: Fowler and Ethan Bear( our top RHD offensive d-man 68 points in WHL last year), Edm 3rd-2017

Ana Edm 2017 1st unprotected, Pouliot(50% retained), Yakupov

Edm: Barrie

 

[HanSolo]

Exactly and it's top 5 protected? Anaheim has to wait 2 years before benefiting off the fowler trade? Cmon man that's horrendous

It's just a silly argument that goes to show what the rebuild through the draft decade has done to the mindset of some Oiler fans. The time has come that if Edmonton is serious about being a playoff team with this core that they can't be reliant on the draft anymore. That first rounder is a tradeable asset. The top 5 protection is absolutely absurd and I'm not even sure protection itself is the right term, conditional first round pick. Another poster in this thread put it best when he said it's time for Edmonton to put on their big boy pants. When you trade a first round pick you run the risk of it being high if your team didn't perform well. Everywhere I look I see Edmonton fans saying this is finally Edmonton's year to qualify for the playoffs. Well then top 5 protection sure aint necessary then is it?

 

[liquiduck]

Col: Fowler and Ethan Bear( our top RHD offensive d-man 68 points in WHL last year), Edm 3rd-2017

Ana Edm 2017 1st unprotected, Pouliot(50% retained), Yakupov

Edm: Barrie

so basically Anaheim strentghens a divional rival and the best asset they get back is a future pick for a win now team. I don't think they'd go for that one.

 

[Rebuilt]

EDM: T. Barrie
COL: C. Fowler + G. Reinhart
ANA: EDM 2017 1st (top 5 protected, '18 1st if top 5) + B. Pouliot (25% retained, 3M cap)

No thanks. If we take on a non exempt player such as Barrie , a non exempt player has to go back (plus whatever picks to even it out) If they want Sekera plus picks then fine.

We could do Eberle plus picks too but even then we would have to go to a 4 plus 4 forwards list which leaves guys like Yak, Maroon, Kassian and others vulnerable . Add in the money Barrie wants and to me its a dead issue.

We made our play on Larsson. I dont think we trade for another. We sign a UFA without a NMC and leave him vulnerable or do nothing further.

Since there is no way the Avs entertain Sekera or Eberle for Barrie, there is no point in making 54 more threads on the same dead issue. From an Oiler POV that is.

 

[Chayos]

so basically Anaheim strentghens a divional rival and the best asset they get back is a future pick for a win now team. I don't think they'd go for that one.

I don't understand Anaheims need's at all it seems. On one hand they have an internal cap and cant take on money, so a player like Hall was to much money even though they need a left winger, yet if you offer them futures they are in win now mode. You guys do know players cost money and you won't get cheap stars to fill that need right.

 

[liquiduck]

I don't understand Anaheims need's at all it seems. On one hand they have an internal cap and cant take on money, so a player like Hall was to much money even though they need a left winger, yet if you offer them futures they are in win now mode. You guys do know players cost money and you won't get cheap stars to fill that need right.

If your understanding of our needs is that we can't take on salary then why did you come up with a proposal where they take on salary?

I suspect they could take on money for the right player. I wouldn't see any problem moving other pieces around to fit a guy like RNH in the lineup. Neither Pouliot or Yak are those kinds of players.


Anyways, if the move is salary for salary then it needs to be a talent equivalent winger on a similar deal (like JVR) or a some combination of young cost controlled forwards/ NHL ready prospects.

That proposal doesn't check any of the boxes.

 

[mytduxfan*]

I don't understand Anaheims need's at all it seems. On one hand they have an internal cap and cant take on money, so a player like Hall was to much money even though they need a left winger, yet if you offer them futures they are in win now mode. You guys do know players cost money and you won't get cheap stars to fill that need right.

You move guys to make space for players like Hall. Drai would also be a good option for us because of his ability to contribute right away without costing the moon. However, beyond a few small deals (i.e. Maroon), EDM and ANA aren't good trading partners as they're divisional rivals.

Personally, I hope BM doesn't do a deal with EDM. I feel any deal that helps EDM would be a loss for ANA because, even if it made our team better, EDM has McDavid... and we don't. Best case for us is EDM continues to be a force offensively, but struggles defensively. In the case of ANA, we're likely taking the opposite trend i.e. struggle offensively, but a force defensively. Were the former to occur, it would at least give us a chance to beat EDM down the road once Getzlaf and Perry fall off.