Confirmed with Link: [EDM/BUF] McLeod + Tullio for Matt Savoie

[McFlyingV]

Thanks. A lot of work for Nuge there. heh

kane is done. Stick a fork in done. hasn't been the same player for a longwhile now.

Drai could have trouble too as he's less good at carrying players in all zones now. Arviddsson used to be a solid player. Since injuries hit he's not a 200ft player. neither is Drai that good at it now. Holloway always seems to make mistakes. Like the player. But that line could have some problems.

The crux is if players like Skinner, Kane, even Arvie really buy in, or can. These are old players and age starts to cheat zones. I worry about the sustain of all our role players as well. Our bottomsix is gonna be ancient.

I don't think Kane's done yet. Still has shown good stretches of play the past 2 seasons when healthy.

We'll see how the team meshes, but this line up on paper looks a hell of a lot better than what we rolled last season. Especially when you factor in a full season of Henrique, Broberg, and Holloway, as well as a likely bounce back candidate in Brown and Janmark.

In my mind this still feels like it could be a special lineup especially with a Ceci replacement either this summer or at the deadline.

Still, McLeod scored 4 goals in 10 games after the benching. Scored 3 goals in the final round making him one of our leading scorers in that round. McLeod was scratched one game in playoffs, and responded well I thought. His stats support this.

McDavid and McLeod led the Oilers in SC final scoring. Each with 3 goals. Drai had zero, Nuge had one, Hyman had 2. Henrique 2.

The notion that McLeod was stinking the joint out in playoffs or the final was a bit manufactured.

Brown scored 4 goals all season and only 2 in playoffs and he "stepped up''? Seems like the bar is set different depending on name of player. McLeod in 2024 and beyond is probably better at every aspect of hockey than an old post injury Connor Brown.

It's hard to really pat Mcleod on the back for an empty netter and an 8-1 goal when Florida didn't even try to pretend that they gave up in the 3rd period. He pissed away an absolute gift that McDavid gave him to tie game 2 as well. Just wasn't enough when you look at how badly he got outscored at 5 on 5. He doesn't take all the blame though. Foegele was also awful.

 

[nabob]

I agree with a lot of your post. But I don’t think McLeod had to go. Similar to what Courier said, I don’t think the Oilers gave up on the player. Jackson just took value when presented with it.

One thing I will say with McLeod is that I do think his next contract would have been problematic for the Oilers. I kind of see it going the same way Puljujarvi/Yamamoto did. They are fine players when their salary is 1-2m but once you they start making 3+ they don’t have value on the Oilers. And the Oilers will be paying McDavid/Draisaitl/Bouchard a lot in the next year or two.

Was thinking this today as well. If the Oilers had waited another year to move McLeod in a trade then they likely would have been stuck in a Yamamoto type situation where they get way less value than they would have a year sooner.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

So looking at some stats from Savoie:

He was 4th in the WHL last season with 4 SHG in 34 games. The 3 players ahead of him all played between 66 and 68gp. respectively.

'23-24 season: 34gp. 30-41-71 +24 133sog. (17-22-39 ES), (9-18-27 PP), (4-1-5 SH)
'22-23 season: 62gp. 38-57-95 +57 248sog. (28-38-66 ES), (6-15-21 PP), (4-4-8 SH)
'21-22 season: 65gp. 35-55-90 +54 209sog. (23-33-56 ES), (12-22-34 PP), (0-0-0 SH)

I like that he puts up points at ES and SH and isn't overly PP reliant for his point totals and that he gets roughly 4 shots on goal a game the last 2 seasons.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Rolodex comes in handy sometimes.

Jackson’s been in the game in various capacities for like 40 years including player, agent, management. Whoever he hires will have that benefit to support the organization’s needs. None of this work happens in isolation. Jackson’s been effusive in praising teamwork for draft and free agency. The door opener and relationship is a small part of a largely closed door industry.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Thanks. A lot of work for Nuge there. heh

kane is done. Stick a fork in done. hasn't been the same player for a longwhile now.

Drai could have trouble too as he's less good at carrying players in all zones now. Arviddsson used to be a solid player. Since injuries hit he's not a 200ft player. neither is Drai that good at it now. Holloway always seems to make mistakes. Like the player. But that line could have some problems.

The crux is if players like Skinner, Kane, even Arvie really buy in, or can. These are old players and age starts to cheat zones. I worry about the sustain of all our role players as well. Our bottomsix is gonna be ancient.

Honestly I think the team could work with the following, IF Savoie forces his way on.

Kane - McDavid - Hyman
Skinner - Draisaitl - Arvidsson
RNH - Henrique - Savoie
Janmark - Holloway - Brown

You give each line one player that needs sheltering a bit Kane, Skinner, Savoie, Holloway with 2 players that are more than capable at getting them going.

Now I don’t think he will make it out of camp but that is a very deep forward core and you still have Perry you can role out for the odd game to sit a guy like Savoie.

Now the big if here is if Kane is actually health and can return to his early season play from last year.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Still, McLeod scored 4 goals in 10 games after the benching. Scored 3 goals in the final round making him one of our leading scorers in that round. McLeod was scratched one game in playoffs, and responded well I thought. His stats support this.

McDavid and McLeod led the Oilers in SC final scoring. Each with 3 goals. Drai had zero, Nuge had one, Hyman had 2. Henrique 2.

The notion that McLeod was stinking the joint out in playoffs or the final was a bit manufactured.

Brown scored 4 goals all season and only 2 in playoffs and he "stepped up''? Seems like the bar is set different depending on name of player. McLeod in 2024 and beyond is probably better at every aspect of hockey than an old post injury Connor Brown.

A few things. For the first 3 rounds McLeod had 1 point, was a -4 even strength (which only Ryan and Foegele were worse). For the first 3 rounds he didn’t hold up his end of the bargain.

In the finals McLeod was relegated to 4th line minutes, was our 12th most used forward, was outscored 3-6 etc. I give him props for his goals for sure, however it was abundantly clear by the end that the coaching staff really didn’t know what to do with him and the playoffs were really not his cup of tea.

He has been knocked for his willingness to engage, to take a check to go that extra mile since his draft year and nearly 7 years later he hasn’t changed. He is a good player to have in the regular season but he is very repalcable in the playoffs. And that’s why he is gone.

 

[alanschu]

I don't think this is giving up on McLeod at all. If you give up on a guy you flip him for a 3rd. The fact is they had to move someone and that someone was pretty much going to be one of Kane, Ceci, Kulak or McLeod. The problem with moving a defender is that you then have to replace him and that presented its own challenges. Kane is probably not going to finish his contract in Edmonton but right now moving him may have meant little in return.

Agreed. I like @TheNumber4 describing it as a "cap casuality." With the signings and our cap situation some money has to be on the way out, and him and Kane are probably the two most likely. I think McLeod is a solid player but with the moves I wasn't surprised to see the trade.

Kane's trade ability is probably severely hampered with his health status at the moment too.

 

[Stauf4Prez]

Two days later, I still think this trade was an absolute fleece and am still ecstatic over it.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Apparently NHL GM's can't squeeze other NHL GM's.

Luckily the Oilers don't have a GM,

 

[McFlyingV]

Two days later, I still think this trade was an absolute fleece and am still ecstatic over it.

Feels weird going into camp excited about a blue chip prospect and wondering if he'll show well and force his way onto the team. Thought those days were behind us, but Jeff Jackson just got us a top 6 RW prospect nearly NHL ready with tons of pedigree, and a future #3C prospect in O'Reilly when we weren't expecting much out of this draft or free agency.

I thought with Holloway and Broberg officially graduating as prospects we wouldn't have much to be excited about from prospects for the next few years at least.

 

[LeonDraisaitl29]

Two days later, I still think this trade was an absolute fleece and am still ecstatic over it.

Savoie is legitimate first liner potential.

 

[LeonDraisaitl29]

We got O'Rielly who the organization had ranked mid first talent. That was expectational value for what's most likely going to be another late first next year.

Didn't mean to sound like I was criticizing the trade, mostly just mean we basically get first round talent at a far higher position than the first rounder we traded

 

[Shanahanigans]

Savoie is a top prospect but McLeod is getting heavily , heavily underrated here by the old school “hits and battles” crowd. We all love that. But McLeod is also one of the best zone exit players in the league on a bottom 6 and D core that struggles to break out, along with one of the best play driving bottom 6 centres in the league. His warts are what they are, if he was physical and battled more he’d be a 5 million dollar player instead of 2. He’s an incredibly useful player and I think this trade makes us worse in the short run.

Henrique was murdered possession wise as 3C in the regular season and playoffs for us, and was kept afloat by unsustainable on ice shooting + sv%. We got significantly older and slower in the bottom 6 by losing McLeod and Foegele.
I value McLeod higher than most , I remember the years before he got here and we were getting murdered in the non Mcdrai minutes. As soon as he gets here, our third line suddenly carries water and allows us to have a playable bottom 6. Savoie might turn out to be a stud, but I worry about a bottom 6 that suddenly got 10 years older and lost all their speed. I can almost guarantee we’ll be looking for a McLeod type shot suppression zone exit player by the deadline.

His contribution to the team was incredibly valuable in all the ways that may not make it onto the scoresheet. His softness frustrated me too but I’ll take it unless we find a better 3C option. I’m not sold that 34 year old Henrique is that option.

 

[McDNicks17]

Savoie is a top prospect but McLeod is getting heavily , heavily underrated here by the old school “hits and battles” crowd. We all love that. But McLeod is also one of the best zone exit players in the league on a bottom 6 and D core that struggles to break out, along with one of the best play driving bottom 6 centres in the league. His warts are what they are, if he was physical and battled more he’d be a 5 million dollar player instead of 2. He’s an incredibly useful player and I think this trade makes us worse in the short run.

Henrique was murdered possession wise as 3C in the regular season and playoffs for us, and was kept afloat by unsustainable on ice shooting + sv%. We got significantly older and slower in the bottom 6 by losing McLeod and Foegele.
I value McLeod higher than most , I remember the years before he got here and we were getting murdered in the non Mcdrai minutes. As soon as he gets here, our third line suddenly carries water and allows us to have a playable bottom 6. Savoie might turn out to be a stud, but I worry about a bottom 6 that suddenly got 10 years older and lost all their speed. I can almost guarantee we’ll be looking for a McLeod type shot suppression zone exit player by the deadline.

His contribution to the team was incredibly valuable in all the ways that may not make it onto the scoresheet. His softness frustrated me too but I’ll take it unless we find a better 3C option. I’m not sold that 34 year old Henrique is that option.

McLeod had some nice fancies, but it's pretty obvious that there's limitations to them when it comes to the playoffs. Everyone saw how teams like Dallas and Florida focus on taking transition away. Teams get forced into playing in their own zone and guys like McLeod, who only really have any value in transition, get exposed.

McLeod gets confused as a "defensive" player, but really he's just a transition player. Those players aren't hard to find. They usually bounce around the league because teams get tired of players that can't play in either zone.

 

[Fourier]

Ridiculous. Mcleod was usable, and flexible, in many ways and in usage, which is most indication where Coaches see players. Only 6 forwards on this whole club got more Toi/Game than McLeod and thats including Henrique who just got here at TDL. Factor in actual toi and Mcleod had 6th most minutes.

"useless offensively" had 16 Goals. more than the vast majority of our forwards. He had more goals than Browy, Perry and Janmark put together. Thats just a fact.

McLeod was basically our 7th best forward in every metric.

Ryan McLeod was good at a lot of things. But not the dead sexy things that fans tend to go for. just a nuts and bolts solid player that even produces when put up in the lineup. Good teams have players like this, and tend to keep players like this.

Your defense of McLeod also illustrates why he was probably not long for the team in my mind once they signed Henrique. If he was to simply duplicate his previous season he would be looking at between $3.5-4.5M (In edit: actually I'd revise this to $3-4M) in arbitration next year. At that point he would be almost impossible to keep but his trade value would likely also be more like a 3rd or 4th than a top prospect. We saw this with Yamamoto and JP. Regardless of how you view them comparatively, both priced themselves off the team simply by having decent seasons at the wrong time in the Oilers cap cycle. And this is not just an Edmonton issue. It is a consequence of the years of a flat cap.

 

[frag2]

Two days later, I still think this trade was an absolute fleece and am still ecstatic over it.

HFSabres isn't too bad with assessment but Twitter Sabres...omfg the copium. They are seriously underrating a Savoie while overrating Mcleod. So many saying Sabres 'know something' and that's why he was traded.


Mcleod is what he is. A big player thats uber soft but skates like the wind. When there's pressure, the guy turns into chicken

Could Savoie turn into nobody? Yea well that's why he's still a prospect. and there are risks attached to getting. But in the end, Oilers still got a top ranked prospect + ~2M cap.

 

[commie]

Your defense of McLeod also illustrates why he was probably not long for the team in my mind once they signed Henrique. If he was to simply duplicate his previous season he would be looking at between $3.5-4.5M in arbitration next year. At that point he would be almost impossible to keep but his trade value would likely also be more like a 3rd or 4th than a top prospect. We saw this with Yamamoto and JP. Regardless of how you view them comparatively, both priced themselves off the team simply by having decent seasons at the wrong time in the Oilers cap cycle. And this is not just an Edmonton issue. It is a consequence of the years of a flat cap.

Great post! this is probably the number one reason why this trade was so good. All about asset management. In 2 years, McLeod will be priced too high based on his 'good' metrics to be viable on the Oilers bottom 6. And he is not good enough to play in the top 6. While his trade value will tank due to his cap hit. This will be JP and Yamamoto all over again.
They got 3 million in arbitration but couldn't play higher up in the roster.

The team needs to manage their assets with these middling middle 9 players, can't be paying them 4-5 million and hold on to them to lose their trade value. Flush them out and replace with fresh ELC players till show they are worthy 5+ million player to keep long term, or exchange them out for other ELC or trade chip.
That is the way they have to manage their assets in the era of McDraiBouch's new contracts.

 

[Drivesaitl]

McLeod had some nice fancies, but it's pretty obvious that there's limitations to them when it comes to the playoffs. Everyone saw how teams like Dallas and Florida focus on taking transition away. Teams get forced into playing in their own zone and guys like McLeod, who only really have any value in transition, get exposed.

McLeod gets confused as a "defensive" player, but really he's just a transition player. Those players aren't hard to find. They usually bounce around the league because teams get tired of players that can't play in either zone.

200ft forwards that are flexible and can play top, bottom or special teams, and are in prime ARE rare. If they weren't we'd have some. We only ever get these guys at age 30 or so if they are any good at all. Otherwise we've had to feast on decades of Euro players that are not good enough for the NHL, generally. We've had a too long list of these.

McLeod has value and that confirmed in trade. Both teams benefit. Buffalo right away gets benefit. Oilers get deferred benefit unless one factors in players that will take places but as much as I like Henrique he's only a short option here due to age.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Your defense of McLeod also illustrates why he was probably not long for the team in my mind once they signed Henrique. If he was to simply duplicate his previous season he would be looking at between $3.5-4.5M in arbitration next year. At that point he would be almost impossible to keep but his trade value would likely also be more like a 3rd or 4th than a top prospect. We saw this with Yamamoto and JP. Regardless of how you view them comparatively, both priced themselves off the team simply by having decent seasons at the wrong time in the Oilers cap cycle. And this is not just an Edmonton issue. It is a consequence of the years of a flat cap.

Interesting view and why I asked. For sure I don't know what McLeod would get in arbitration but we don't know for certain either it would go that route. Maybe he wants to be in East closer to his bro? I dunno, but none of us really do. I do defer to you however on your view of what arbitration range would be.

I think comparisons to Yamamoto are off. McLeod for all the talk here about being weak or soft (not you) is actually much closer to ironman. In short he can take it. His speed and style of play also does not require the same degree of eating punishment than was the case for the diminutive Yamamoto.

Pulju a better comparison.

In anycase I get more of what people are saying now. Sorry to have been not looking at all the aspects. I'm not into capology as you know.

 

[Louis Cypher]

Absolute win. Never have to see McLeod lose a puck battle on the boards because he won't make a hard play. Or not finish a check. Or blow snow as a defender comes at him. Or flies around the net instead of driving. Or throws a lame stick check instead of leading with the body.

You advanced nerds can have him. Don't win cups with guys like this in the lineup.

WTF? We almost won the cup because he was in the line up! What playoffs were you watching?

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

WTF? We almost won the cup because he was in the line up! What playoffs were you watching?

very clearly one of the weak links

 

[Louis Cypher]

very clearly one of the weak links

For a $2m player? He was far from the weak link.

 

[Fourier]

Interesting view and why I asked. For sure I don't know what McLeod would get in arbitration but we don't know for certain either it would go that route. Maybe he wants to be in East closer to his bro? I dunno, but none of us really do. I do defer to you however on your view of what arbitration range would be.

I think comparisons to Yamamoto are off. McLeod for all the talk here about being weak or soft (not you) is actually much closer to ironman. In short he can take it. His speed and style of play also does not require the same degree of eating punishment than was the case for the diminutive Yamamoto.

Pulju a better comparison.

In anycase I get more of what people are saying now. Sorry to have been not looking at all the aspects. I'm not into capology as you know.

I was not comparing McLeod to Yamamoto or JP as a player. It was the circumstance that was comparable. Both players were looking at arbitration awards in the $3-4M range and that killed any trade value they may well have had. I think there is a pretty easy case to make that if McLeod simply duplicates this year with the higher cap, he would be in the $3.5-4.5 range. At that point the Oilers probably would not even qualify him if they could not trade him. And at that level his trade value would be less than a guy like Savoie by a great deal I think. They might get a 3rd or 4th which from a practical position would not be of any help to the team for years at best.

Beyond his potential as a cheap skilled forward on the big team, if Savoie has a very good year in the AHL he can even be used as a piece to upgrade the RHD. The guy has a high end pedigree and might well be seen as the right sort of asset that a rebuilding team covets. Right now there are question marks concerning his health. If he puts those to rest, he could become a very valuable trade chip. If he does not then the loss may well be at worst one year of McLeod in a role that is not so well defined.

 

[Drivesaitl]

WTF? We almost won the cup because he was in the line up! What playoffs were you watching?

Yeah I don't get it either. McLeod was the 2nd most scapegoated player here after Drai. People have their odd hate on some players. Meanwhile people love Brown. Its inexplicable really.

Again just defer to the excellent coach who had used Mcleod a lot and 6th in total minutes among forwards on season and playoffs. Didn't cost us, was a swiss army knife and offered a lot of utility, I would think obviously.

McLeod was yeoman on pk alone.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I was not comparing McLeod to Yamamoto or JP as a player. It was the circumstance that was comparable. Both players were looking at arbitration awards in the $3-4M range and that killed any trade value they may well have had. I think there is a pretty easy case to make that if McLeod simply duplicates this year with the higher cap, he would be in the $3.5-4.5 range. At that point the Oilers probably would not even qualify him if they could not trade him. And at that level his trade value would be less than a guy like Savoie by a great deal I think. They might get a 3rd or 4th which from a practical position would not be of any help to the team for years at best.

Beyond his potential as a cheap skilled forward on the big team, if Savoie has a very good year in the AHL he can even be used as a piece to upgrade the RHD. The guy has a high end pedigree and might well be seen as the right sort of asset that a rebuilding team covets. Right now there are question marks concerning his health. If he puts those to rest, he could become a very valuable trade chip. If he does not then the loss may well be at worst one year of McLeod in a role that is not so well defined.

Yeah, I realized that if it wasn't clear.

Thanks again for clarification on the likely arbitration amounts. Wasn't aware it could be that high for McLeod.

I was thinking more around 3M.