ECQF: Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs (Series Tied 3-3)

[Gil Gunderson]

View attachment 856448

If only keefe had this much confidence…

That wasn’t really what happened in the Florida series though. Boston’s goaltending imploded.

 

[Belos]

**Lineups are susceptible to changes and thus ratings are to be prioritized

TOR VS BOS

Toronto Maple Leafs

77 Bertuzzi, 88 Matthews(-), 76 Domi(+)
75 Knies, 82 Tavares, 84 Marner
77 Robertson(+), 76 Holmberg, 84 Nylander
74 Dewar, 71 Kampf, 70 Reaves
76 McMann(+)

79 Rielly, 77 Brodie
81 Benoit(+), 80 McCabe
78 Edmundson, 79 Liljegren(+)
76 Lyubushkin

81 Samsonov(-)
81 Jones
82 Woll(+)


Boston Bruins

76 Heinen, 77 Zacha, 88 Pastrnak
85 Marchand, 77 Coyle, 83 DeBrusk
73 Lauko, 77 Geekie, 80 Frederic
71 Beecher, 76 Boqvist(+), 73 Maroon
78 Van Riemsdyk

88 Lindholm, 87 McAvoy
77 Grzelcyk, 82 Carlo
75 Shattenkirk, 79 Peeke

87 Swayman
86 Ullmark

Key components of the matchup
by percentages
(All inside the whole of 100)


A)Exploitation of Toronto defensive targets (Brodie, Rielly, Liljegren);

The Bruins have oftentimes been excessive adherents to the saying: “ Every puck on net in the playoffs is a good play”. Well, it's a good play… when you can disguise the shot via shot angles, screening or man advantage in the crease area. The legendary Patrick Kane’s Stanley Cup OT winner in 2010 had all of these components rolled into it for example. The Bruins however have had a tendency to hit “ extreme panic mode” and throw purposeless and hail mary shots on net late in heavily contested series in which the opponent had adequate defensive personnel to negate any potential beneficial outcome from such tactics. The thing is however that Toronto has a few defensemen who have shown an outright difficulty in stopping simple actions of the likes. So look to see if Boston can exploit the “targets” via net presence for rebound opportunities or 2nd and 3rd chances for mid grade or high grade opportunities (during Pastrnak’s or Marchands shift for high grade chances).

Likelihood of event happening: 50%
Effect: Critical

B) Lulling them to sleep

The Boston Bruins finished very high in the standings. However, with closer examination, we can quickly see that they accumulated a lot of extra time points which means that instead of fighting to win the game in the 3rd, perhaps more than any team they were quite happy to let the game go to overtime. So, since a habit of low effort and execution has been established in the team, the Maple Leafs can exploit that by playing low event 2nd periods then making gigantic push in the last 10 minutes of the 3rd to test to Bruins ability to execute potent offensive plays with high high pressure. Outside of Pastrnak (and he might even struggle playmaking wise), the task could gradually become heavy.

Likelihood of event happening: 10%

Effect: Good to very good as the series goes the distance due to past Bruins track record

C) Getting past the Marchand decoy

Brad Marchand is a known commodity. The data is clear. While he’s sure to stir up emotions, he's not to be the focal point of the Leafs physical “validation”. That would be Charlie McAvoy. Sans Chara, although possessing Norris level talent, McAvoy has had a tough time keeping his defensive confidence up and making his shifts hellacious should be the true focus of the Leafs.

Likelihood of event happening: 15%

Effect: Very good

D) Two is better than one

American-Latin sensation Auston Matthews is as pure a goal scorer as almost anyone in NHL history. And in Toronto of all places, the demands placed upon a talent of this magnitude is in my opinion a little too much (considering his persona). Unquestionably the focus of Boston's defensive gameplan, its tough to picture him breaking free of the defense, the expectations and past disappointment. Ovechkin could muster a dangerous shot from anywhere, anyhow, anytime. Matthews is gifted with receiving a pass and instantly creating an “open shot” via crisp and subtle deking maneuvers. And that particular skill set could be even more effective by pairing with another goal scorer in Nick Robertson. Défensive attention in Robertson's case and really chemistry might scare Keefe of doing such a thing but a Robertson, Matthews and say Holmberg (sound defensive positioning) line might give Matthews that much needed added skating and shooting threat (in Robertson) to work his talents and keep his confidence up since compared to other all time goal scoring legends, Auston has perhaps the least elusive abilities being such a big target without the hands of Lemieux or the skating and motor of Ovechkin.

Likelihood of event happening 5%
Effects: Unknown potential gem to further explore perhaps next season

E) Stopping Pastrnak primary passing reads (high danger passes) as he’s a conscientious playmaker and not a natural one. The reaction time and play evaluation success that are not obvious (high danger passes) is not Elite (a step below MacKinnon and gigantic steps below Kucherov and McDavid. Similar although slightly unfavorable to Panarin.

Likelihood of event happening: 5% (insufficient defensive personnel at forward and goaltending insecurity)

Effects: Very good

F) ….

Remaining 15% of events are left for injuries. Either team losing a star player (Lindholm, Matthews, McAvoy, Marchand, Nylander, Marne
r, Pastrnak) would mean doom more so than in other matchups.

Effects: Critical

 

[albator71]

View attachment 856448

If only keefe had this much confidence…

If only Keefe had the team Maurice has, Toronto is in no position to deconstruct, frustrate, embarrass and obliterate anymore!!!

 

[archangel2]

The Tavares signing is the gift that keeps giving

Yep

 

[Sombastate]

That game honestly didn't feel like the shellacking it was. It always felt like Toronto was gonna be able to flip a switch and takeover. However, previous years show that they don't necessarily seem capable of that. So... could be a rough series. But I'm not counting them out yet

 

[Hint1k]

Leafs won the fashion show tho

I am not sure why Oilers fans are here gloating, you guys have the exactly same problem - the team with good offense and bad defense. The only difference is that you play in the weakest division and weaker conference while Leafs play in the strongest ones. So Toronto's weakness is more often on display, that's all.

 

[BertMcDrai]

If I were a Leafs fan I would be angry to have locked up players with over 10 mil per year and seeing them choke every year in the playoffs...how is it possible to choke every year like them? I thought some day they would come around but no.

 

[KCC]

another playoffs and the same old story. Outside of last year where they finally got past round 1 despite tampa clearly dominating and being the better team, nothing has changed. Same weak, soft core not built for playoff hockey.

I am not sure why Oilers fans are here gloating, you guys have the exactly same problem - the team with good offense and bad defense. The only difference is that you play in the weakest division and weaker conference while Leafs play in the strongest ones. So Toronto's weakness is more often on display, that's all.

Get outside your leafs bubble and actually watch edm besides when they face each other. Edm is much improved in all areas. They aren’t the same from years past. But you’d know that if you watched. They also have depth scoring. The only question is if skinner can hold the fort.

 

[StoveTopStauffer]

What a fantastic game.

 

[Divine]

Since scoring his 69th, Matthews has now gone 29 shots on goal and 11 missed shots (six wide, two over, one post, one short, one cross) without scoring.
That's shocking.

Matthews definitely has more than 1 post since scoring 69.

He had one this game, he had one last game against Tampa. Pretty sure there were some more also.

Get outside your leafs bubble and actually watch edm besides when they face each other. Edm is much improved in all areas. They aren’t the same from years past. But you’d know that if you watched. They also have depth scoring. The only question is if skinner can hold the fort.

Who's the strongest team Edmonton has ever beat in the playoffs? The Calgary team that went to Game 7 overtime in round 1 against a wildcard team after winning the division?

Tampa was probably the strongest team that either Toronto or Edmonton eliminated in the McDavid/Matthews era.

 

[Grub]

Matthews definitely has more than 1 post since scoring 69.

He had one this game, he had one last game against Tampa. Pretty sure there were some more also.



Who's the strongest team Edmonton has ever beat in the playoffs? The Calgary team that went to Game 7 overtime in round 1 against a wildcard team after winning the division?

Tampa was probably the strongest team that either Toronto or Edmonton eliminated in the McDavid/Matthews era.

Winners score goals, losers bitch at the goal posts.

 

[Divine]

Winners score goals, losers bitch at the goal posts.

Who won the Rocket by double digits this year?

 

[geebster]

Matthews definitely has more than 1 post since scoring 69.

He had one this game, he had one last game against Tampa. Pretty sure there were some more also.



Who's the strongest team Edmonton has ever beat in the playoffs? The Calgary team that went to Game 7 overtime in round 1 against a wildcard team after winning the division?

Tampa was probably the strongest team that either Toronto or Edmonton eliminated in the McDavid/Matthews era.

You only play the teams in front of you, you cant choose who you face. Having only ONE series win in the last 20 years isnt made that much better because it was against a great team, nor does it invalidate Edmonton going deeper every year than the Leafs have. There are no easy series in the NHL playoffs, good teams lose to "bad" ones all the time. That same Lightning squad was swept by Columbus (who also beat the Leafs). Also there hasnt been any Leafs player, despite their paycheques, who have performed the way McDavid and Draisaitl did last playoffs either. There really isnt an argument that the Leafs have been a better playoff team than the Oilers have or have had more success.

All massively off topic though.

As for the first game... Boston was clearly the better team, but they didnt even play that great. They played OK, it seemed more to me the Leafs just played bad. The Leafs player I often find most impressive when I watch their games is Marner and I dont think Ive seen him less visible in a game in a while. Matthews had good moments, but its really just not good enough. Outside of like a 6 minute span to start the 3rd, there was no consistent zone time or effort shown, and that had a lot to do with the Bruins letting up while being up 4.

As unfair as it probably is to say, the amount of effort and focus they put into getting Auston his 70th instead of resting or playing the right way going into the playoffs really gives the appearance that their priorities arent in the right place. Hopefully they come out in game 2 with a much better effort and Domi can control himself better. Also if they can get Nylander back they might be able to generate some offense.

 

[Divine]

You only play the teams in front of you, you cant choose who you face. Having only ONE series win in the last 20 years isnt made that much better because it was against a great team, nor does it invalidate Edmonton going deeper every year than the Leafs have. There are no easy series in the NHL playoffs, good teams lose to "bad" ones all the time. That same Lightning squad was swept by Columbus (who also beat the Leafs). Also there hasnt been any Leafs player, despite their paycheques, who have performed the way McDavid and Draisaitl did last playoffs either. There really isnt an argument that the Leafs have been a better playoff team than the Oilers have or have had more success.

All massively off topic though.

As for the first game... Boston was clearly the better team, but they didnt even play that great. They played OK, it seemed more to me the Leafs just played bad. The Leafs player I often find most impressive when I watch their games is Marner and I dont think Ive seen him less visible in a game in a while. Matthews had good moments, but its really just not good enough. Outside of like a 6 minute span to start the 3rd, there was no consistent zone time or effort shown, and that had a lot to do with the Bruins letting up while being up 4.

As unfair as it probably is to say, the amount of effort and focus they put into getting Auston his 70th instead of resting or playing the right way going into the playoffs really gives the appearance that their priorities arent in the right place. Hopefully they come out in game 2 with a much better effort and Domi can control himself better. Also if they can get Nylander back they might be able to generate some offense.

Yeah and his post was the Oilers play in a weak division. You wrote a wall of text saying watch them play and I followed up by asking who the team the Oilers beat that was better than Tampa was and you wrote 3 paragraphs of text without naming a team so I will assume they weren’t better than Tampa.

There’s definitely weaker teams in the playoffs. LA is not the same as Dallas. LA is one of, if not the weakest teams in the West. Beating them every year while the Leafs lose to better teams than LA doesn’t prove anything.

 

[geebster]

Yeah and his post was the Oilers play in a weak division. You wrote a wall of text saying watch them play and I followed up by asking who the team the Oilers beat that was better than Tampa was and you wrote 3 paragraphs of text without naming a team so I will assume they weren’t better than Tampa.

? Im not the person who said watch them play nor have I previously posted in this thread to my knowledge.

Might be worth considering if you believe this thread is about you or not. My first paragraph was a response to what you said, sure, but the rest was about the series (the actual topic of the thread). Weird to expect that I talk about more off topic nonsense like which other teams Edmonton has faced in the 2 paragraphs that were on topic here.

 

[DearDiary]

The Leafs were better and played with more heart when Kessel was their best player. The current Leafs team is simply unlikable.

 

[HolyGhost]

Someone really needs to remind leaf fans that they are the underdogs in this series

 

[614 CBJ]

 

[TMLegend]

The Leafs were better and played with more heart when Kessel was their best player. The current Leafs team is simply unlikable.

They weren't very likable back then either. Perhaps you've forgotten about wafflegate or salutegate?

I'd say this current bunch was likeable until about 2019-ish, but a combination of Dubas's baby shit soft culture, Keefe's general incompetence as a coach, as well as the core guys puking all over themselves repeatedly in the playoffs have turned alot of fans off the team and organization as a whole.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

The Leafs were better and played with more heart when Kessel was their best player. The current Leafs team is simply unlikable.

Leafs havent had heart since Sundin was a Leaf

 

[Connor McConnor]

The Leafs should have traded for Markstrom at the deadline. The guy put up Vezina numbers this year on a trash Flames team. Markstrom is good enough of a goalie to stand on his head and steal games behind an average blueline.

Last time he was in the playoffs he got lit up so idk about that

AM might go down as one of the most disappointing playoff performers of all time given his RS production. How delusional Leaf fans still try to convince the rest of us he’s a top 4 player is crazy to me

 

[bobholly39]

Wait - what happens now to my prediction of Boston out in 4?

Good thing I was more conservative in my actual pool and gave it 5 games...

 

[ShippinUpToBoston]

Just curious, who do Montreal fans root for in this series?

 

[ACLEVERNAME]

5-1. Ive only just woken up in a drunken stupor and I still remember this ass kicking frame by frame. Oof.

 

[ACLEVERNAME]

Just curious, who do Montreal fans root for in this series?

Schadenfreude is a very real real aspect of humanity. Don't question it.