GDT: ECF: Game 4 - New York Rangers @ Florida Panthers, 8pm ET, ESPN

[MrAlmost]

10-16-13
20-93-96
50-72-24
21-90-73

Panthers are going to throw it all at us tonight from the get go. They may allow for timely counter punches, but you will have to convert. Don't rely on PP. It sucks and we won't get any in the game anyways.

This one will be very hard to win.

 

[Machinehead]

Our underlying numbers were ass against Washington. We swept the series and never really trailed. I firmly believe we were getting out to leads and then just hatching an egg to conserve energy. Because we could.

Since then, our underlying numbers have...not sucked.

Depending on the model you look at, the Carolina series was either slightly in their favor or slightly in our favor. It was a close series against an excellent team. And if you put stock in xG and things like that, you have to believe Carolina is an excellent team. They're the best at it.

In the Florida series, we outplayed them in 2/3 games and 6 of the last 8 even strength goals in the series are by the Rangers.

Also, out of the four teams remaining, only Edmonton has a positive xGF% in rounds 2 and 3, at just over 50%. These teams are killing each other. It's all really tight.

If you look back over the years, the Cup winner tends to come in at either below or just barely above 50% xG in the playoffs. Regression to the mean hits hard when everyone is good.

Even the darling ass Kings who had like 59% of the scoring chances in the regular season, posted a 50.9% xG in the 2014 playoffs.

 

[Levitate]

Panthers are going to throw it all at us tonight from the get go.

We've been saying this about every single game. When, exactly, are they not going to throw everything at the Rangers from the get go?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

This run is interesting.

As you say it's clearly their best team/best chance in forever.

But I remember feeling 2012 and 2014/15 being way more fun. Way more suspenseful, which made it fun. The winning was more euphoric. And it's not like those teams weren't good - one of them won the President's trophy too.

Maybe it's just because I'm older and tired of losing, but I have mostly dread. I think it's like Parcells said, eventually you begin to hate losing more than you love winning.

But I'm not having a ton of fun with this playoff run. The announcing is awful and generates no excitement. It feels like except for a moment here or there, the first two lines are laboring. Igor is brick walling it up a bit but not even in a fun, Mike Richter sprawling out and diving to make a ridiculous save kind of way.

Lafreniere exploding onto the scene has been awesome. But to me, the team feels like it's underperforming (like vs Washington) or getting outplayed and lucky (Carolina and Florida). It's not as fun as it should be. Depressing. I'm a grouch.

I mean our biggest win has only been 2 goals and that’s only been a couple times including empty nets.

We’re barely winning by the skin of our teeth.

I guess this is how we’ve been winning all year, but it would be nice to just have a dominant “easy” win here or there.

This is just too exhausting.

We've been saying this about every single game. When, exactly, are they not going to throw everything at the Rangers from the get go?

We’re in too used to the Rongos deciding when they will or won’t play hard , we don’t realize that not every team does this lol

 

[MrAlmost]

I don't know who may have said that, but first 2 games were most certainly not that. More feeling out. The end of the 3rd game and pretty much any from here on out will likely be like that. Thing I like least about the Rangers is they never seem to be the team throwing. Little too passive sometimes.

Edit: Oops. Forgot to quote.

 

[Stugots]

This run is interesting.

As you say it's clearly their best team/best chance in forever.

But I remember feeling 2012 and 2014/15 being way more fun. Way more suspenseful, which made it fun. The winning was more euphoric. And it's not like those teams weren't good - one of them won the President's trophy too.

Maybe it's just because I'm older and tired of losing, but I have mostly dread. I think it's like Parcells said, eventually you begin to hate losing more than you love winning.

But I'm not having a ton of fun with this playoff run. The announcing is awful and generates no excitement. It feels like except for a moment here or there, the first two lines are laboring. Igor is brick walling it up a bit but not even in a fun, Mike Richter sprawling out and diving to make a ridiculous save kind of way.

Lafreniere exploding onto the scene has been awesome. But to me, the team feels like it's underperforming (like vs Washington) or getting outplayed and lucky (Carolina and Florida). It's not as fun as it should be. Depressing. I'm a grouch.

I think you also have to consider our opponents. In the 13/14 and 14/15 runs the best teams we faced were Pitt (13/14) and TB (14/15) and both of those teams finished with less points than Carolina or Florida did this year. Playing 2 teams back to back that finished with 110+ points is not a cakewalk.

 

[MysticLeviathan]

I was 19 when I joined this site. Being in my 30's has giving me a new appreciation for what these guys do.

I'm exhausted. Chris Kreider is older than me and he's going out and playing the games.

To be fair, this has been our most exhausting run for me, even though it's been comparatively the easiest.

I think it's because this is the deepest we've been in my adult life where I actually believe it could happen.

2014 and 2022, I was absolutely just happy to be there. The 2014 team was fire in retrospect but while it was happening, they were a game 1 away seed three times. Nobody really expected it. In 2022, I was thrilled to lose in round 3 to a team that was just better than us. It didn't stress me out at all.

It was kind of there in 2015, but I looked at the Chicago matchup and I was really like "eh, I don't know." The PIttsburgh series was mid. The Caps series was razor thin. It never felt dominant.

The poor 2012 team -- they had a fun run at the time but I don't really give them the time of day compared to the teams that came after to be honest. The 2024 Rangers would blow them the f*** off the face of the Earth.

This is the first time where I'm like, "you know, they could" and I don't feel like I'm lying to myself. It's cool, but it weighs a lot.

this is why I’m getting so stressed out. this could be our best chance for a while. we aren’t truly underdogs regardless of what sportsbooks say. we’re the presidents’ trophy winners and we have an objectively good team, good enough to win it all.

I’m not just happy to make an appearance, I’m not just content to get as far as we can and build off this run. I know we’re capable of winning it all, and knowing you can’t take future teams for granted and could miss the playoffs entirely for all we know, it’s very stressful. this is the best team we’ve had in a long time, and I know it’s good enough to win the cup without some kind of super miracle cinderalla run.

but carolina and florida are two of the toughest teams in the league. if the rangers are going to win the cup, they’re really gonna have to earn it despite how easy the 1st round was.

 

[TominNC]

This run is interesting.

As you say it's clearly their best team/best chance in forever.

But I remember feeling 2012 and 2014/15 being way more fun. Way more suspenseful, which made it fun. The winning was more euphoric. And it's not like those teams weren't good - one of them won the President's trophy too.

Maybe it's just because I'm older and tired of losing, but I have mostly dread. I think it's like Parcells said, eventually you begin to hate losing more than you love winning.

But I'm not having a ton of fun with this playoff run. The announcing is awful and generates no excitement. It feels like except for a moment here or there, the first two lines are laboring. Igor is brick walling it up a bit but not even in a fun, Mike Richter sprawling out and diving to make a ridiculous save kind of way.

Lafreniere exploding onto the scene has been awesome. But to me, the team feels like it's underperforming (like vs Washington) or getting outplayed and lucky (Carolina and Florida). It's not as fun as it should be. Depressing. I'm a grouch.

And Hank wasn’t Brick walling for those other teams? And this team is winning the OTs.

Seems more like you’ve lost your love for the game and are just happier being critical.

Me, I’m old enough to have been through it all but I’m loving the shit out of this.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I mean our biggest win has only been 2 goals and that’s only been a couple times including empty nets.

We’re barely winning by the skin of our teeth.

I guess this is how we’ve been winning all year, but it would be nice to just have a dominant “easy” win here or there.

This is just too exhausting.


We’re in too used to the Rongos deciding when they will or won’t play hard , we don’t realize that not every team does this lol

3.

G1 vs Washington was 4-1.

 

[LOFIN]

I expect to wake up in 10 hours to another masterclass from Wennberg

 

[Levitate]

Our underlying numbers were ass against Washington. We swept the series and never really trailed. I firmly believe we were getting out to leads and then just hatching an egg to conserve energy. Because we could.

Since then, our underlying numbers have...not sucked.

Depending on the model you look at, the Carolina series was either slightly in their favor or slightly in our favor. It was a close series against an excellent team. And if you put stock in xG and things like that, you have to believe Carolina is an excellent team. They're the best at it.

In the Florida series, we outplayed them in 2/3 games and 6 of the last 8 even strength goals in the series are by the Rangers.

Also, out of the four teams remaining, only Edmonton has a positive xGF% in rounds 2 and 3, at just over 50%. These teams are killing each other. It's all really tight.

If you look back over the years, the Cup winner tends to come in at either below or just barely above 50% xG. Regression to the mean hits hard when everyone is good.

Even the darling ass Kings who had like 59% of the scoring chances in the regular season, posted a 50.9% xG in the 2014 playoffs.

Yeah and you just rarely flat out dominate teams anymore in the NHL and most especially in the playoffs.
Margin for error and winning is razor thin for both teams. Rangers have taken on two teams here that are forechecking monsters and base their game around that heavy forecheck and puck retrieval and honestly it's not a strength of the Rangers to deal with that and break the puck out cleanly! But instead they've found ways to at least cut down on the high danger chances generated from those forechecks and are counter punching and pushing back when they get a chance to get their feet under them. It's certainly a somewhat odd style of hockey considering what we're currently programmed to think of as dominant/good playoff hockey, but if they can scratch and claw their way through it then it's working for them so far.

Honestly IF, and knock on wood here, the Rangers were to match up with one of the remaining WC teams I'd almost rather it be Dallas since I feel like Edmonton's ability to quick strike offense off the rush is far or just have game breaking talent win stuff is far better than any other team remaining and the Rangers would struggle more to contain that top end talent.

But who knows, worry about this series first.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

If I was Florida I wouldn't change a thing after last game. I am happy that they are though as it seems like overthinking imo.

Matchups appear to be relatively significant in this series. As much as I have come around to Rempe having some kind of motivational value beyond his actual play, I wouldn't suit him up tonight. We need to roll 4 and not having last change really harms his value.

Put him back in for game 5 and use Brodz tonight. Florida seems to struggle a lot with speedier players who can move the puck and/or press the forecheck.

I really want us to win tonight.

 

[JohnC]

I have more than a strong hunch that Zibanejad was injured on that cross check from Burns last round and it explains some of his scoring drying up.

 

[Cuckoo4Kakko]

Prediction: The mains will be a cesspool if we lose, but even more of a cesspool if we win.

 

[chosen]

Wonder if 96-91-24 will be a thing this game. Not sure Chytil worked with 20-93. Zibs seems wrung out. Hopefully they got rest. Will Bread shoot the puck when the opportunity is there? He seems caught up in his head.


It's just math.

Panarin is only line outshooting Florida.

If the series is going to go off the rails, this is where it will happen. I suspect Florida are going to come out in the 1st like they did in the 3rd last game. If we can weather that and not be down multiple goals going into the intermission, then I like our chances.

It went totally off the rails in Game 3. Almost impossible for Rangers to be dominated more than in that game.

 

[Rangers2319]

It’s wild that you only have a few seconds to write and post on mobile before your message gets Thanos snapped. What a site man.

Anyway, practically must win game for them. Protect Igor at all costs, they will be in his kitchen all game. On the other side, Bob is close to breaking. Crush them.

LGR!!

agree. this site is awfullllll on any iphone or ipad, completely useless. the live feature is trash too imo

 

[Machinehead]

this is why I’m getting so stressed out. this could be our best chance for a while. we aren’t truly underdogs regardless of what sportsbooks say. we’re the presidents’ trophy winners and we have an objectively good team, good enough to win it all.

I’m not just happy to make an appearance, I’m not just content to get as far as we can and build off this run. I know we’re capable of winning it all, and knowing you can’t take future teams for granted and could miss the playoffs entirely for all we know, it’s very stressful. this is the best team we’ve had in a long time, and I know it’s good enough to win the cup without some kind of super miracle cinderalla run.

but carolina and florida are two of the toughest teams in the league. if the rangers are going to win the cup, they’re really gonna have to earn it despite how easy the 1st round was.

I will say this, the way we've played, and the way certain guys have played, and where the holes are, I'm pretty confident this team comes back next year with another chance.

The problems we have are easy to fix. We have two 1st line centers, an all-world wing, a Norris-winning defenseman, and a Vezina-winning goaltender. We're not going anywhere.

 

[Harbour Dog]

You were loud in hating Laf. You were just louder in hating Kakko.

Yup, I remember getting a response from Ed with a Spongebob meme saying "should we tell him", or something like that, when I said Laf was still obviously worth a top10 pick if we traded him at the draft. And that was around a conversation about him not even being worth a 1st rounder lol

So much re-writing of history goes on here, I'm thankful that I'm filled with spite and remember all that shit

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

I have more than a strong hunch that Zibanejad was injured on that cross check from Burns last round and it explains some of his scoring drying up.

Are you saying you have some kind of insider info here?

 

[McRanger92]

I have more than a strong hunch that Zibanejad was injured on that cross check from Burns last round and it explains some of his scoring drying up.

So much for the league cracking down on crosschecks. Maybe if Burns snapped it over his head instead of his back someone besides us wouldve noticed. It's been open season on the Rangers since we went up 3-0 on Carolina. I'm sure that was just a coincidence.

 

[haohmaru]

Survive the first 10 minutes and then all bets are off.

 

[Harbour Dog]

It went totally off the rails in Game 3. Almost impossible for Rangers to be dominated more than in that game.

Sshhhhh

 

[McRanger92]

Survive the first 10 minutes and then all bets are off.

I said that last game and we didn't survive it, but we won anyway. Unless Florida can get a 4 goal lead on us somehow, we are in it to the end.

 

[Levitate]

I will say this, the way we've played, and the way certain guys have played, and where the holes are, I'm pretty confident this team comes back next year with another chance.

The problems we have are easy to fix. We have two 1st line centers, an all-world wing, a Norris-winning defenseman, and a Vezina-winning goaltender. We're not going anywhere.

I worry Zibanejad is starting a steep decline and with Panarin and Kreider gonna be 33 a big falloff might happen at any time
But yeah...they could still pull out another run. I'd just like to see them reorganize the D

 

[LOFIN]

agree. this site is awfullllll on any iphone or ipad, completely useless. the live feature is trash too imo

You know what's f***ing great on mobile? The ads that block 50% of your screen that you can't get rid of, that actually obstruct the functionality of the site. So you then install an ad-block that prevents said ads, and you get another pop-up for using an adblock. And nothing has been done to this for like 2 years now.

This is what my screen looks like on mobile without ad-block. f***ing ridiculous. The pop-up for using adblock basically on every third site load, but at least you can click it away easily.