Friedman: Dylan Larkin requests trade

[Leo2Cutter]

This thread is pointless now till he actually gets moved. Just a bunch of people circle jerking about how Larkin has minimal value

I don’t think people think he has minimal value, I think most think redwing fans are prob aiming too high.

 

[SirloinUB]

Until it matters.

All the Selke voters must not watch too, I guess. His defensive game can be fine, and still be far behind really good/great ones.

This is at least partly a result of how much the Red Wings have asked him to do. Year in and year out Larkin is consistently near the top of the league in TOI, Shorthanded TOI, Defensive zone starts, and TOI against Elites. Very few players are asked to do all of that and he has done it all while playing with an incredibly weak supporting cast.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

If I didn't know how to use quotation marks I wouldn't double down by highlight it for all to see. Especially if I wanted people to believe my opinions on other people's character. But that's just me.

If I were trying to defend Dylan Larkin and wanted to deflect from his obvious flaws, this is the kind of stuff I'd focus on.

 

[rynryn]

"I know what I got!" he screams, gesticulating wildly at a 2018 Camry.

 

[jkutswings]

"I know what I got!" he screams, gesticulating wildly at a 2018 Camry.

Toyotas come with a 100 thousand mile warranty. So no worries about Larkin declining in the next few years.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

This is at least partly a result of how much the Red Wings have asked him to do. Year in and year out Larkin is consistently near the top of the league in TOI, Shorthanded TOI, Defensive zone starts, and TOI against Elites. Very few players are asked to do all of that and he has done it all while playing with an incredibly weak supporting cast.

He was 44th in forward total TOI and 29th in total TOI/game.

96th in PK TOI/game this season. 98th in PK TOI/game over the last 3 seasons.

What he's doing is fine. It's the same thing O'Reilly was asked to do and he did it notably better.

I'm not saying Larkin is an "F" defensive forward. I'm just saying he's less than O'Reilly was by probably about the same as O'Reilly was less than Larkin is offensively.

 

[deca guard]

This is at least partly a result of how much the Red Wings have asked him to do. Year in and year out Larkin is consistently near the top of the league in TOI, Shorthanded TOI, Defensive zone starts, and TOI against Elites. Very few players are asked to do all of that and he has done it all while playing with an incredibly weak supporting cast.

so many fans that dont watch redwings have no clue of this and seriously underrate him because they just judge by pretty plays and points . but the gms know what a complete player larkin is , to go along with being signed for 5 at a great cap hit shall add up to him bringing back a great return

 

[dgibb10]

This is at least partly a result of how much the Red Wings have asked him to do. Year in and year out Larkin is consistently near the top of the league in TOI, Shorthanded TOI, Defensive zone starts, and TOI against Elites. Very few players are asked to do all of that and he has done it all while playing with an incredibly weak supporting cast.

Neither of these things are true.

Larkin is 97th among forwards in PK time the last 2 years. so a 3rd or 4th forward on PK2. He's also not really a great PK guy either considering his results aren't particularly good there. He is a 2nd unit PK guy on a bad PK (the red wings haven't reached an 80% PK during his entire tenure on said PK)

In terms of % of shifts starting in the dzone, that number of 13% is 116th. Nothing to sneeze at but not some crazy deployment (and about 12% over the last 5 years). Both Compher and Copp on the same team have a higher share of dzone starts over the last 5 years for detroit.

He plays almost exclusively with Lucas Raymond. Does lucas raymond suck?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I don’t think people think he has minimal value, I think most think redwing fans are prob aiming too high.

I think you've got about 10% blind ridiculousness where people actually think he's gonna return McDavid+ and 10% realistic or subrealistic where they actually undervalue the return.

The other 80% is people, like myself, who are like "Damn it'd be great if we could get Desnoyers". And people take off with that and think "You clown you think you can get Desnoyers?!" when really it's a wish (Maybe not a likely one, but still a possible one) more than a demand. Then some of that 80% gets wrapped into arguing why it's possible, which again, it is possible, just not that likely.

 

[dgibb10]

He was 44th in forward total TOI and 29th in total TOI/game.

96th in PK TOI/game this season. 98th in PK TOI/game over the last 3 seasons.

What he's doing is fine. It's the same thing O'Reilly was asked to do and he did it notably better.

I'm not saying Larkin is an "F" defensive forward. I'm just saying he's less than O'Reilly was by probably about the same as O'Reilly was less than Larkin is offensively.

this.

Larkin is a very good player. He's a 1C

But it still does not pry away guys like Desnoyers.

They are equating Larkin getting a return comparable to other younger 1Cs of the past to somehow being a massive slight on him, which is odd

 

[jkutswings]

this.

Larkin is a very good player. He's a 1C

But it still does not pry away guys like Desnoyers.

They are equating Larkin getting a return comparable to other younger 1Cs of the past to somehow being a massive slight on him, which is odd

I'd guess that in a few more years Desnoyers becomes a 50-60 point playmaking center who is defensively responsible. So the question isn't whether Larkin should be worth a prospect of that caliber - he is.

The question is whether Bill Armstrong thinks the Mammoth are close enough to contending that 1-2 moves gives them a realistic chance to make it out of the West. Neither I nor anybody on these boards can answer that for him. So we'll see what teams make what offers and where Larkin ends up.

 

[dgibb10]

I'd guess that in a few more years Desnoyers becomes a 50-60 point playmaking center who is defensively responsible. So the question isn't whether Larkin should be worth a prospect of that caliber - he is.

The question is whether Bill Armstrong thinks the Mammoth are close enough to contending that 1-2 moves gives them a realistic chance to make it out of the West. Neither I nor anybody on these boards can answer that for him. So we'll see what teams make what offers and where Larkin ends up.

He's not.

Prospects of desnoyers caliber simply don't get traded unless they ask out or refuse to sign. The only example in 20+ years is a near 1 for 1 trade for a 25 year old 1C signed for 9 years who was 20th in points in the entire NHL over the previous 4 years, and who also had 4 consectutive top 10 selke finishes and who had no trade protection.

Mike Richards for Schenn+Simmonds.

The only thing in the current NHL that would comp to that would probably be Nick Suzuki

Bill Armstromg may think the mammoth are close. He's still not gonna move desnoyers

 

[Empoleon8771]

He's not.

Prospects of desnoyers caliber simply don't get traded unless they ask out or refuse to sign.

I don't think that is necessarily true. Wheeler had Desnoyers as the #12 prospect in hockey, which feels pretty fair to me. Meanwhile in 2018-2019, Pronman ranked Erik Brannstrom as the #19 ranked prospect right before he was traded to Ottawa for Mark Stone. I think that is pretty comparable.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

He's not.

Prospects of desnoyers caliber simply don't get traded unless they ask out or refuse to sign. The only example in 20+ years is a near 1 for 1 trade for a 25 year old 1C signed for 9 years who was 20th in points in the entire NHL over the previous 4 years, and who also had 4 consectutive top 10 selke finishes and who had no trade protection.

Mike Richards for Schenn+Simmonds.

The only thing in the current NHL that would comp to that would probably be Nick Suzuki

Bill Armstromg may think the mammoth are close. He's still not gonna move desnoyers

Desnoyers will never be anything close to Suzuki.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't think that is necessarily true. Wheeler had Desnoyers as the #12 prospect in hockey, which feels pretty fair to me. Meanwhile in 2018-2019, Pronman ranked Erik Brannstrom as the #19 ranked prospect right before he was traded to Ottawa for Mark Stone. I think that is pretty comparable.

Brannstrom went 15th overall. It is very much not uncommon to see that tier of drafted prospect get traded.

Desnoyers went 4th.

And actually that stone trade is a great example. Because Vegas made Cody Glass untouchable in those negotiations, and so the lesser piece in Brannstrom was moved. (note, glass was even untouchable in negotiations for Erik Karlsson)

 

[dgibb10]

Desnoyers will never be anything close to Suzuki.

Did you misread?

I said Mike Richards closest comparable in the current NHL would be Suzuki. Maybe Robert Thomas but he didn't have the defensive reputation or the goal scoring chops that Richards did.

Richards: 25, 20th in NHL in points over previous 4 years, 28th in goals, selke caliber player (4 straight top 10 finishes)
Suzuki: 26, 13th in NHL in points over previous 4 years 43rd in goals, selke caliber player (win, 3 straight top 15 finishes).

Both signed long term at under market prices.

 

[jkutswings]

He's not.

Prospects of desnoyers caliber simply don't get traded unless they ask out or refuse to sign. The only example in 20+ years is a near 1 for 1 trade for a 25 year old 1C signed for 9 years who was 20th in points in the entire NHL over the previous 4 years, and who also had 4 consectutive top 10 selke finishes and who had no trade protection.

Mike Richards for Schenn+Simmonds.

The only thing in the current NHL that would comp to that would probably be Nick Suzuki

Bill Armstromg may think the mammoth are close. He's still not gonna move desnoyers

MCKEEN’S 2026 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #2 Utah Mammoth – Organization Overview – Top 15 Prospects

The McKeen's scouting team profiles the Utah Mammoth top 15 NHL prospects

www.mckeenshockey.com

"He is still projecting as a strong second line center, with fringe first line center potential."


He's a good young player. But pump the brakes.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Brannstrom went 15th overall. It is very much not uncommon to see that tier of drafted prospect get traded.

Desnoyers went 4th.

And actually that stone trade is a great example. Because Vegas made Cody Glass untouchable in those negotiations, and so the lesser piece in Brannstrom was moved. (note, glass was even untouchable in negotiations for Erik Karlsson)

But draft position is pretty irrelevant years after being drafted. Brannstrom was a top-20 prospect when he was moved, which is exactly where Desnoyers is.

If you're hung up on draft position mattering, I'll throw out Brayden Schenn in the Mike Richards deal. He was the #5 overall pick in 2009 and was traded for Mike Richards in 2011.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I'd guess that in a few more years Desnoyers becomes a 50-60 point playmaking center who is defensively responsible. So the question isn't whether Larkin should be worth a prospect of that caliber - he is.

The question is whether Bill Armstrong thinks the Mammoth are close enough to contending that 1-2 moves gives them a realistic chance to make it out of the West. Neither I nor anybody on these boards can answer that for him. So we'll see what teams make what offers and where Larkin ends up.

From what I've heard from this thread, I think the big disconnect is on the significance that the term and contract carries. When the best reference that can be produced is a trade that almost pre-dates Desnoyers, it's clear that we don't have good reference points.

The insistence that these trades happen and whether certain prospects are or aren't included in them is a fabrication. Whether or not Larkin should command a large return of multiple pieces is unknown.

The one thing that feels like it should be a non-negotiable is that Larkin is worth more than a single prospect, Desnoyers or Iginla. Those who are arguing the contrary are completely misguided. But the fans who expect multiple of that tier, or several additional pieces are also probably being unreasonable.

It's easy to see the value of Larkin as top 6 center, the question is how much is the contract increase the value from that of a rental. We have plenty of evidence of what that could be worth. For example, Claude Giroux was traded (with other stuff) on an expiring deal mid-year for Owen Tippett and a first primarily.

 

[dgibb10]

But draft position is pretty irrelevant years after being drafted. Brannstrom was a top-20 prospect when he was moved, which is exactly where Desnoyers is.

If you're hung up on draft position mattering, I'll throw out Brayden Schenn in the Mike Richards deal. He was the #5 overall pick in 2009 and was traded for Mike Richards in 2011.

Yes, Brayden schenn is a great example.

He + simmonds fetched a 25 year old who over the past 4 years had 4 straight top 10 selke finishes, was 20th in points in the NHL, 28th in goals, and was signed for 9 more years at below 9% of the cap.

That comps to Suzuki or maybe a better Robert Thomas, not larkin.

 

[ctmagic]

So now Larkin is the Toyota Corolla of NHL Centers…

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yes, Brayden schenn is a great example.

He + simmonds fetched a 25 year old who over the past 4 years had 4 straight top 10 selke finishes, was 20th in points in the NHL, 28th in goals, and was signed for 9 more years at below 9% of the cap.

That comps to Suzuki or maybe a better Robert Thomas, not larkin.

I mean I think you're overstating the difference between Thomas and Larkin here.

 

[dgibb10]

But draft position is pretty irrelevant years after being drafted. Brannstrom was a top-20 prospect when he was moved, which is exactly where Desnoyers is.

If you're hung up on draft position mattering, I'll throw out Brayden Schenn in the Mike Richards deal. He was the #5 overall pick in 2009 and was traded for Mike Richards in 2011.

It was a year and a half post draft. Brannstrom looked good, but solid in the AHL is not enough to shoot up a players trade valuation.

Draft position is a much better measure of value 1.5 years post draft than articles by guys like pronman.

A writers opinion is not the NHL gms opinion. Hence why, again, the highly drafted glass was untouchable (eg Desnoyers) and the later drafted, progressing well player would however be available (eg, But).

Vegas kept their highly drafted guy untouchable in negotiations for Stone, and in negotiations for Erik Karlsson. They were willing to give up the later drafted guy.

"The Golden Knights were ‘98 percent’ close to a deal for Erik Karlsson leading up to the deadline. The two percent was the one player Vegas was reluctant to give up — Glass. The team’s first ever draft pick was deemed untouchable. Ottawa was persistent. Instead, Vegas continued to counter for one of Suzuki or Brannstrom"

 

[Empoleon8771]

It was a year and a half post draft. Brannstrom looked good, but solid in the AHL is not enough to shoot up a players trade valuation.

Draft position is a much better measure of value 1.5 years post draft than articles by guys like pronman.

A writers opinion is not the NHL gms opinion. Hence why, again, the highly drafted glass was untouchable (eg Desnoyers) and the later drafted, progressing well player would however be available (eg, But).

Vegas kept their highly drafted guy untouchable in negotiations for Stone, and in negotiations for Erik Karlsson. They were willing to give up the later drafted guy.

"The Golden Knights were ‘98 percent’ close to a deal for Erik Karlsson leading up to the deadline. The two percent was the one player Vegas was reluctant to give up — Glass. The team’s first ever draft pick was deemed untouchable. Ottawa was persistent. Instead, Vegas continued to counter for one of Suzuki or Brannstrom"

I mean if Desnoyers is the holdup but But would be acceptable, I don't think you'd get too many Wings fans arguing against that. If you want to recreate the ROR to St. Louis deal, But is the most apples to apples guy to Thompson to fill that spot in the trade.

As a neutral fan, Carcone, Tanev, But, a 1st and 2nd for Larkin looks totally solid to me if Utah would bite on that.

 

[dgibb10]

I mean I think you're overstating the difference between Thomas and Larkin here.

26 years old vs 30 years old.


The likely best years of larkins career are the past 5, not the next 5