Dylan Larkin Or Nico Hischier?

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Tough for Nico when you got both Hughes dictating PP1, I'm sure Hish would be a lot better if he was the first or second option

While this is true, Jack's missed a fair amount of hockey in his career, and Nico still hasn't really taken advantage. His skillet honestly just isn't that well suited for PP scoring. He's better suited to creating in a more fluid style, like off the rush or cycle. He's one of those guys who seems to be better with less time and space for whatever reason.

 

[dgibb10]

While this is true, Jack's missed a fair amount of hockey in his career, and Nico still hasn't really taken advantage. His skillet honestly just isn't that well suited for PP scoring. He's better suited to creating in a more fluid style, like off the rush or cycle. He's one of those guys who seems to be better with less time and space for whatever reason.

The PP is probably one of the most important reasons why Jack becoming a better faceoff man is important.

I think Nico could provide a shot in the arm on a PP2 with a less structured in zone setup, as well as protect us from late PP shorties and keep pressure going after the PP ends, adding a true netfront guy to PP1

Hughes, Hughes, Noesen, Bratt, Meier
Hamilton, Hischier, Palat, Mercer, Haula (Gritysuk eventually)

But Jack has gotta be able to win draws for that to work

 

[Fatass]

Hischier dominated in 22-23 with Tomas Tatar and Dawson Mercer as his primary linemates.


Both are 100% in the mid teens.

I question naming 19 centers who have been better

Jack Hughes gets the opponents’ top checking forwards and D. Hughes is the guy on Jersey, so Hischier benefits from that. Larkin is the guy in Detroit.

 

[dgibb10]

Jack Hughes gets the opponents’ top checking forwards and D. Hughes is the guy on Jersey, so Hischier benefits from that. Larkin is the guy in Detroit.

I'd rather get better linemates than slightly easier competition (the competition hischier plays is quite hard as well btw)

 

[Fatass]

I'd rather get better linemates than slightly easier competition (the competition hischier plays is quite hard as well btw)

Imo Hischier is the top checking centre on Jersey and gets the hardest line matchups. I think he’s a fantastic player. OpenTable though will try to get their best checking centre and D out against Hughes. Much like Jersey tries to get Hischier out against other clubs’ top lines.

 

[dgibb10]

Imo Hischier is the top checking centre on Jersey and gets the hardest line matchups. I think he’s a fantastic player. OpenTable though will try to get their best checking centre and D out against Hughes. Much like Jersey tries to get Hischier out against other clubs’ top lines.

Once again, depends on what you're looking for.

Detroit wouldn't trade Larkin for Nico, because they do not have another scoring PP center on the roster or in the pipeline.

NJD would not trade Nico for Larkin, because they already have a pretty set PP and have Jack.

I think if detroit could choose between a 2nd larkin and a nico, they'd take nico for his ability to play drive with weaker linemates, PK, and take defensive matchups off larkins plate.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The PP is probably one of the most important reasons why Jack becoming a better faceoff man is important.

I think Nico could provide a shot in the arm on a PP2 with a less structured in zone setup, as well as protect us from late PP shorties and keep pressure going after the PP ends, adding a true netfront guy to PP1

Hughes, Hughes, Noesen, Bratt, Meier
Hamilton, Hischier, Palat, Mercer, Haula (Gritysuk eventually)

But Jack has gotta be able to win draws for that to work

I personally would like to see us move toward the heavy PP1 deployment model for our stars that team's like Edmonton has found success with. Jack and Jesper shouldn't leave the ice in the first 100 seconds of a PP unless they are gassed.

 

[Xirik]

I personally would like to see us move toward the heavy PP1 deployment model for our stars that team's like Edmonton has found success with. Jack and Jesper shouldn't leave the ice in the first 100 seconds of a PP unless they are gassed.

So you don't believe in the old phrase "to many cooks in the kitchen?"

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So you don't believe in the old phrase "to many cooks in the kitchen?"

No, I just think we should keep our best 2 cooks out there longer. Seems to work for Edmonton.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Nick Suzuki

 

[Xirik]

Nick Suzuki

I agree Nick Suzuki is on a lower tier then both Larkin and Hischier.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

Although Nico does have the luxury of Hughes drawing the opponents top defensive players, it shouldn’t take away from the fact that he is the the guy NJ relies on to play against the opponents top offensive players.
Larkin is the guy teams match up against and Nico is the guy that matches up against top line players, while putting up similar numbers.

 

[Bouboumaster]

I agree Nick Suzuki is on a lower tier then both Larkin and Hischier.

I agree, Nick Suzuki is on a lower tier of suckage then both Larkin and Hischier

 

[Xirik]

I agree, Nick Suzuki is on a lower tier of suckage then both Larkin and Hischier

feel free to go in depth on how he's better. please educate us.

 

[Michoulicious]

Larkin, basically has to do it all by himself.

C depth on the Red Wings is terrible.

 

[Bouboumaster]

please educate us.

Easy

He's better at that hockey stuff

He's doing almost as good with less and he's going to Win at least one Selke before it's all done
I don't think it's un Hischier's and Larkin's future

Also he's on the rise. Once Caufield and Slafkovsky become more consistant, he should get similar numbers while also being better on the defensive Side of the game

 

[dgibb10]

Easy

He's better at that hockey stuff

He's doing almost as good with less and he's going to Win at least one Selke before it's all done
I don't think it's un Hischier's and Larkin's future

Also he's on the rise. Once Caufield and Slafkovsky become more consistant, he should get similar numbers while also being better on the defensive Side of the game

Would just like to make sure I have you on the record stating that you think Tomas Tatar and Dawson Mercer >> Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky

 

[bert]

I like Larkin. Redwings were a joke when he got Injured.

I think he's got more dog in him than Nico.

He's definitely got an edge and his motor is contagious. Its a really good poll, I prefer Larkin. To see how bad Detroit was without him was very telling, he is a very very valuable piece. You always notice him when he's playing.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Would just like to make sure I have you on the record stating that you think Tomas Tatar and Dawson Mercer >> Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky

Are you assuming that young players can't get better and they are stucked forever at the level of Play they had in their early 20s?

 

[vancityluongo]

i think larkin is the better player right now, as in i'd take him for a singular stretch, but as an asset for building a team i'd take hischier

good poll

 

[Evergreen]

I personally would like to see us move toward the heavy PP1 deployment model for our stars that team's like Edmonton has found success with. Jack and Jesper shouldn't leave the ice in the first 100 seconds of a PP unless they are gassed.

Hughes was in the top-15 among forwards in the entire league last year in terms of average PP TOI. Bratt is in the top 50, ahead of guys like Hyman and RNH. And for the record NJ and Edmonton were 18th and 20th, respectively, in PP opportunities. So it’s not a matter of one team getting way more PPs than the other (the difference was 2).

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Easy

He's better at that hockey stuff

He's doing almost as good with less and he's going to Win at least one Selke before it's all done
I don't think it's un Hischier's and Larkin's future

One of these guys has been nominated for a Selke and it's not Suzuki

Hughes was in the top-15 among forwards in the entire league last year in terms of average PP TOI. Bratt is in the top 50, ahead of guys like Hyman and RNH. And for the record NJ and Edmonton were 18th and 20th, respectively, in PP opportunities. So it’s not a matter of one team getting way more PPs than the other (the difference was 2).

Yeah, I would keep pushing Hughes and Bratt to get upwards of 80% of PP ice time. Jack got up to 75% last year after 71% the year before and 61% before that. Bratt was at 68%, 63%, 58% for the last 3 years respectively

Over the last 3 years, the rough data I pulled together seems to suggest that teams that give their top forwards a larger share of PP ice time end up with better GF outcomes. Every 7% bump in avg TOI% correlates with roughly a +1 GF/60 increase.

Its no coincidence the top 4 teams in PP GF/60 in the last 3 years give their top forwards the largest share of PP ice time.

There's certainly some intercorrelation here (teams with elite PP weapons are going to be tempted to play them more and get better results), but I would hypothesize that there is something more to it.

 

[Xirik]

Are you assuming that young players can't get better and they are stucked forever at the level of Play they had in their early 20s?

Ah, so you agree that Dawson Mercer who is younger then Caufield will also get better as he is also a young player. Or perhaps you forgot that other team's have young players as well playing on the their top lines?

 

[Evergreen]

Yeah, I would keep pushing Hughes and Bratt to get upwards of 80% of PP ice time. Jack got up to 75% last year after 71% the year before and 61% before that. Bratt was at 68%, 63%, 58% for the last 3 years respectively

Over the last 3 years, the rough data I pulled together seems to suggest that teams that give their top forwards a larger share of PP ice time end up with better GF outcomes. Every 7% bump in avg TOI% correlates with roughly a +1 GF/60 increase.

View attachment 901236

Its no coincidence the top 4 teams in PP GF/60 in the last 3 years give their top forwards the largest share of PP ice time.

View attachment 901238

There's certainly some intercorrelation here (teams with elite PP weapons are going to be tempted to play them more and get better results), but I would hypothesize that there is something more to it.

I appreciate your detailed analysis. My one thought is that I think your stats might be skewed by the fact that teams with the best PPs more frequently end the PP early (i.e. before the second unit has a chance to get out there). So those PPs will have a higher % of PP TOI given to their top forwards.

It’s interesting that even though Edmonton’s top forwards play the highest % of the PP time of any team, they actually have lower PP TOI per game than NJ’s top guns because they are ending PPs quickly.

 

[BKarchitect]

Same class. Both clearly star #1 centers in the top 20 of the position any given year, both take on lots of responsibility, neither is at the “he’s THE franchise superstar forward for a contender” level. Of course Hischier doesn’t have to be that and we shall see how all that prospect depth the DRW are stockpiling pans out.

Two great players. Not much separation IMO.