Proposal: Ducks-Senators

[Sojourn]

If he was a UFA on July 1st I would be furious if my team signed Kesler until he's 37 years old at a cap hit of 6.75M a season. He's worth the money right now, but won't be in a couple years. When he's over 35 that contract is going to be an albatross.

So, you get 4-5 good years from him? Sounds awful.

 

[Hale The Villain]

So, you get 4-5 good years from him? Sounds awful.

There's no guarantee of 4-5 good years when he's already 31. Players decline at different ages, but guys who play a rough physical game and have had numerous injuries don't tend to age well.

Could see Kesler decline to the 30-40 point range within a couple years. Excellent D game or not that's not worth almost 7 million a season.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

If he was a UFA on July 1st I would be furious if my team signed Kesler until he's 37 years old at a cap hit of 6.75M a season. He's worth the money right now, but won't be in a couple years. When he's over 35 that contract is going to be an albatross.

More than worth it for what he brings to the table. Your team is in no position to be turning your nose up at a Selke caliber center.

 

[Sojourn]

There's no guarantee of 4-5 good years when he's already 31. Players decline at different ages, but guys who play a rough physical game and have had numerous injuries don't tend to age well.

Could see Kesler decline to the 30-40 point range within a couple years. Excellent D game or not that's not worth almost 7 million a season.

True, and we won't know how it turns out until it happens. But you're dismissing it as if you already know what the conclusion will be.

This is the way the NHL works. It's the way it's worked for some time. Kesler is a prime asset, and a great player, and you pay for him now because he'll help you now, and later. If you could reasonably expect him to fall off a cliff and not be worth his contract immediately, sure, but so far there's no sign that will be the case. If he didn't get that deal in Anaheim, he would have gotten it with another team, and that team would be the better for it. Likely for at least a while.

You can be pissed at your GM, but that's a deal that pretty much any GM would make, if they could afford to make it, because you'd be locking up Ryan Kesler while he's still playing great hockey. You'd deal with the consequences of a potential decline later, but you'd take the risk because your team is better for it. Unless you have no hope, or desire of making the playoffs.

 

[Hale The Villain]

More than worth it for what he brings to the table. Your team is in no position to be turning your nose up at a Selke caliber center.

The Sens are in exactly the kind of position to turn our nose up at taking on Kesler's contract. Sens are a team with a strict budget that couldn't afford to sign a player that's worth half of what Kesler is on July 1st.

We aren't contending now, and Kesler wouldn't put us over the top. When it comes to center depth going forward, there's not many teams more deep than the Sens: Turris, Zibanejad, Pageau, Smith, Brown,White, Lazar, Paul. Why the heck do the Sens need Kesler?

 

[Sojourn]

The Sens are in exactly the kind of position to turn our nose up at taking on Kesler's contract. Sens are a team with a strict budget that couldn't afford to sign a player that's worth half of what Kesler is on July 1st.

We aren't contending now, and Kesler wouldn't put us over the top. When it comes to center depth going forward, there's not many teams more deep than the Sens: Turris, Zibanejad, Pageau, Smith, Brown,White, Lazar, Paul. Why the heck do the Sens need Kesler?

That's easy: Kesler would be an improvement, and it would put you in a position to move those players as assets to bring in players of need.

Whether that's what your GM would want to do is another matter, but it's really not that difficult to extrapolate a scenario where you'd add Kesler. He'd be a leader, a veteran, and your best all-around forward. He would completely change the dynamic of your forward core, just as he has in Anaheim.

I'm not trying to convince you to take him. I don't want to move Kesler, and I don't see a realistic scenario where it happens. The Ducks want him. But if we're looking at this as a hypothetical, it's not that tough to see why the Senators could want him. You might be wasting the best years of Karlsson right now. Edit: And believe me, Anaheim fans can relate to seeing elite players wasted because their GM just won't give them the team they need. It's even worse when you look back and realize how long it's been going on.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Lol at people acting like Kesler has Kevin Bieksa value

No one is saying that, however, you would be crazy to trade Zibanejad straight up for Kesler, nevermind adding anything at all from Ottawa, being that Mika is 8 years younger, cost controlled and put up only 2 less points than Kesler this season, all while getting better each year. He hasn't even hit his real prime years yet.

You're lying if you would do that from Ottawa's perspective and if so, that's TERRIBLE asset management in a cap world.

 

[One Winged Angel]

That's easy: Kesler would be an improvement, and it would put you in a position to move those players as assets to bring in players of need.

Whether that's what your GM would want to do is another matter, but it's really not that difficult to extrapolate a scenario where you'd add Kesler. He'd be a leader, a veteran, and your best all-around forward. He would completely change the dynamic of your forward core, just as he has in Anaheim.

I'm not trying to convince you to take him. I don't want to move Kesler, and I don't see a realistic scenario where it happens. The Ducks want him. But if we're looking at this as a hypothetical, it's not that tough to see why the Senators could want him. You might be wasting the best years of Karlsson right now. Edit: And believe me, Anaheim fans can relate to seeing elite players wasted because their GM just won't give them the team they need. It's even worse when you look back and realize how long it's been going on.

I think you would be hard pressed to find a GM that would move Zibanejad for Kesler straight up right now.

 

[Benttheknee]

I'm not sure Kesler is a huge upgrade on Zibs anymore, especially considering the age difference. And then throwing in JPP or a 1st?

Over the last 2 years Kesler has played 1 less game and score 4 more points and is only 9 years older than Zibanejad. Think of Pageau and a 1st as just some extra goodies so that Ottawa can tank harder faster.

Might as well add that 32 year old Kesler is being paid 6.875 million for another 5 years. That kind of contract is great for a cheap ass team to meet the floor.

 

[Benttheknee]

Doesn't make sense for either team, but the Ottawa responses are pretty funny. Kesler is being severely underrated.

Fowler, a 1st and Rakell for Phaneuf. See the similarity?

 

[dracom]

Fowler, a 1st and Rakell for Phaneuf. See the similarity?

Eh, I get why Ottawa fans wouldn't want Kesler. But, comparing Kesler to Phaneuf is kind of ridiculous. Phaneuf isn't getting nominated for the Norris, yet Kesler got nominated for the Selke along the likes of Bergeron and Kopitar.

 

[Sojourn]

I think you would be hard pressed to find a GM that would move Zibanejad for Kesler straight up right now.

I'm not saying they would. Successful teams typically have talent spread out between ELC's and the more expensive contracts.

 

[Nordic*]

Holy hell that proposition is bad for Ottawa.

Kesler is ageing and is on a baaaad contract as it is. Even worse a couple of years from now.

Wouldn't make that trade for Zibbie alone.

 

[Sojourn]

Holy hell that proposition is bad for Ottawa.

Kesler is ageing and is on a baaaad contract as it is. Even worse a couple of years from now.

Wouldn't make that trade for Zibbie alone.

I'm not sure you're aware of what the market value is on a Selke caliber center, who can put up numbers like Kesler. If you think that's a bad contract right now, you're very, very mistaken.

That contract could turn bad, but he's definitely worth that price now. And then some.

 

[eternalbedhead]

I'm not sure you're aware of what the market value is on a Selke caliber center, who can put up numbers like Kesler. If you think that's a bad contract right now, you're very, very mistaken.

That contract could turn bad, but he's definitely worth that price now. And then some.

It's bad for the same reason that Shea Weber's contract is bad: term.


Although Weber will be a good deal older when his contract expires, Kesler still will be what, 37? when his expires. We probably might see his play begin to tail off as soon as next season. By 37, what will he be? Whatever he is at 37, he'll still be paid almost 7M a year.


Now, for a team in win-now mode; a team that's going to suck in 5 years and thus won't need any cap space then, the term on Kesler's contract won't be as much of a worry. But how about Ottawa? They're not in win-now mode and they're not in good position to try to go for a Cup via trade. They're better off trading Karlsson and attempting a full-scale rebuild. Kesler does nothing to help them now, and taking on his contract is like shooting yourself in the foot.


Believe me, as an Angels fan, it pains me to see that we're wasting away what could be the cornerstone of our franchise in Mike Trout. But look at the moves the Angels are trying to make: they all look like this trade, and look where it's getting us.

 

[Sureves]

I don't see how his deal makes any sense on any level.

 

[stempniaksen]

This makes very little sense for Anaheim, and even less for Ottawa. Bad idea, bad post, bad thread. You should feel shame.

 

[Sureves]

This makes very little sense for Anaheim, and even less for Ottawa. Bad idea, bad post, bad thread. You should feel shame.

Ya seriously:

- center for center so no positional rationale
- Ottawa gets older, Anaheim gets younger when Anaheim should be going for a Cup and Ottawa continuing the rebuild course
- Ottawa (a budget team) takes on a more expensive player
- Kesler would never waive for Ottawa
- Ottawa way overpays for Kesler

Like seriously this couldn't make any less sense. Really awful proposal, no offense.

 

[Nordic*]

Ottawa is on a strict budget.

6.8 mill is equivalent to 8.5 there.

 

[Sojourn]

It's bad for the same reason that Shea Weber's contract is bad: term.


Although Weber will be a good deal older when his contract expires, Kesler still will be what, 37? when his expires. We probably might see his play begin to tail off as soon as next season. By 37, what will he be? Whatever he is at 37, he'll still be paid almost 7M a year.


Now, for a team in win-now mode; a team that's going to suck in 5 years and thus won't need any cap space then, the term on Kesler's contract won't be as much of a worry. But how about Ottawa? They're not in win-now mode and they're not in good position to try to go for a Cup via trade. They're better off trading Karlsson and attempting a full-scale rebuild. Kesler does nothing to help them now, and taking on his contract is like shooting yourself in the foot.


Believe me, as an Angels fan, it pains me to see that we're wasting away what could be the cornerstone of our franchise in Mike Trout. But look at the moves the Angels are trying to make: they all look like this trade, and look where it's getting us.

I think you need to re-read what he said. When you say the contract is bad "as is" and then go on to say it will be even worse later, you're strongly suggesting(if not outright stating) that he isn't worth what he's being paid now.

He mentioned the term. He mentioned it when he said it will be even worse later. That's the term. What he will be paid right now isn't bad, and you'd be hard pressed to find equivalent two-way talent for less.

As for the comparison to the Weber contract, there is little comparison. Weber's contract is worse for a myriad of reasons. Admittedly, Weber was a better player at the time he signed it, but that contract was never going to end well. If Kesler plays out the majority of his contract being the type of player he is now, the Ducks would take that as a win, and likely be happy about the results. That's a much taller order for Weber, and that recapture penalty could be absolutely insane. Even if the NHL (IMO) probably lessens it, that contract was exactly why the NHL tried to restrict the front-loaded insane term contracts.

 

[NEWFowler]

I'd do this trade. The Ducks are going no where fast, and that package would set us up well for the future.

but, it makes no sense for Ottawa.. and Kesler would never waive.

 

[eternalbedhead]

I think you need to re-read what he said. When you say the contract is bad "as is" and then go on to say it will be even worse later, you're strongly suggesting(if not outright stating) that he isn't worth what he's being paid now.

He mentioned the term. He mentioned it when he said it will be even worse later. That's the term. What he will be paid right now isn't bad, and you'd be hard pressed to find equivalent two-way talent for less.

As for the comparison to the Weber contract, there is little comparison. Weber's contract is worse for a myriad of reasons. Admittedly, Weber was a better player at the time he signed it, but that contract was never going to end well. If Kesler plays out the majority of his contract being the type of player he is now, the Ducks would take that as a win, and likely be happy about the results. That's a much taller order for Weber, and that recapture penalty could be absolutely insane. Even if the NHL (IMO) probably lessens it, that contract was exactly why the NHL tried to restrict the front-loaded insane term contracts.

My bad, I misread his post. Kesler's contract, strictly speaking in money, not term, isn't bad now, no, but I have to agree with him that it will be bad in a couple years depending on how hard Kesler takes his journey towards 40.


Also, I only brought up Weber because that's a very good example of good current value but awful term. It's miles worse than the Kesler contract, yes, but in the fact that they are paying each player a high AAV up until their late 30s (or in Weber's case, 40), they are alike.

 

[Benttheknee]

Eh, I get why Ottawa fans wouldn't want Kesler. But, comparing Kesler to Phaneuf is kind of ridiculous. Phaneuf isn't getting nominated for the Norris, yet Kesler got nominated for the Selke along the likes of Bergeron and Kopitar.

So you got my point then.

 

[Benttheknee]

I'm not sure you're aware of what the market value is on a Selke caliber center

Apparently you don't either.

You are undervaluing ...
- Zibanejad's contract
- Zibanjads age
- Pageau
- a first round pick

Now if Zibanejad was 29, had a $5 million contract, Pageau was a 3rd and the first was a 6th. The deal would be close.

 

[Benttheknee]

I think you need to re-read what he said. When you say the contract is bad "as is" and then go on to say it will be even worse later, you're strongly suggesting(if not outright stating) that he isn't worth what he's being paid now.

.

Do you understand that the trade value of a player is not only his ability and his age, but also his contract?

Erik Karlsson on a a $6.5 contract at 26 has a lot different trade value than EK at 35 with a $10 contract with the same term.