Post-Game Talk: Ducks 3 - Jets 2

[NA Hockey]

I was fine with Namestnikov there last year but IMO this year they could use a definite upgrade on the second line. Neither he or perfetti have been consistent enough or noteworthy offensively. Namestnikov is not a long term piece so If a 2C with term exists, id make a move.
Cozens would be a large bet (nearly a 40m dollar one) to make however he's the only name and player with some high potential that's rumored to be available. Buffalo loves making dumb deals and players often bounce back or progress away from that team.

So neither Vlad or Perfetti have been consistent yet they both have way more points than Cozens wihile making les than half.

So you want to trade a 22 year old with 20 points making $3.25m for a 23 year old that has 14 points and making 7.1M for the next 6 years? That's an albatross of a contract for a guy trending down. If Perfetti had 14 points making 7.1M this year, this place would be carving him like crazy.

 

[WolfHouse]

Watching the replay it looks like Pionk's pass or shoot-out attempt went off of a Ducks skate. Still looked like he panicked a bit though.

We shouldnt call him Bad Pionk... its more Chaos Pionk - he goes through phases where it looks like he is extra panicked about the play - maybe chasing it - and does stuff like that

 

[gojetsgo]

So neither Vlad or Perfetti have been consistent yet they both have way more points than Cozens wihile making les than half.

So you want to trade a 22 year old with 20 points making $3.25m for a 23 year old that has 14 points and making 7.1M for the next 6 years? That's an albatross of a contract for a guy trending down. If Perfetti had 14 points making 7.1M this year, this place would be carving him like crazy.

way more points? perfetti has 6 more, names has 4... both have also played 2 more games then cozens as well..

jets have scored the most goals in the league, buffalo is 2nd
jets are #1 in the standings, buffalo is 30th....

 

[NA Hockey]

way more points? perfetti has 6 more, names has 4... both have also played 2 more games then cozens as well..

jets have scored the most goals in the league, buffalo is 2nd
jets are #1 in the standings, buffalo is 30th....

Well almost 50% more points is a lot more. The two extra games are more than offset with the fact that Cozens also plays 17.5 mins a night. Vlad and Cole get nowhere near the opportunity or premium ice that Cozens gets, yet still outproduce him for a fraction of the price.

I like Cozens but I think it is wild that people are clamouring for a guy that has struggled that much to produce when given all the opportunity in the world and making 7.1M but complain about Perfetti and Vlad when they are out producing him and combined make $2M less.

Players with bad long term contracts and not performing don't usually command top tier returns, in fact teams often pay to get rid of them.

 

[10Ducky10]

Well almost 50% more points is a lot more. The two extra games are more than offset with the fact that Cozens also plays 17.5 mins a night. Vlad and Cole get nowhere near the opportunity or premium ice that Cozens gets, yet still outproduce him for a fraction of the price.

I like Cozens but I think it is wild that people are clamouring for a guy that has struggled that much to produce when given all the opportunity in the world and making 7.1M but complain about Perfetti and Vlad when they are out producing him and combined make $2M less.

Players with bad long term contracts and not performing don't usually command top tier returns, in fact teams often pay to get rid of them.

You think Buffalo has to pay to get rid of Cozens?

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Eh, I'm not particularly worried. We have Hellebuyck.

We had Hellebuyck playing at a Vezina level two seasons ago, yet Jets still stubbed their collective dicks down the stretch and nearly missed the playoffs.

I haven’t quite gone over to the dark side where I think this is a true fraud squad, but man these have been some hard games to watch over the past month.

I almost get the same bad vibe as the 2019-20 Jets, except instead of bleeding scoring chances they are absolutely anemic and incapable of creating consistent offense at 5v5.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

On a more positive note, I’ll be at the game on Saturday and Jets are 8-0 this season when I’m in the building.

 

[NA Hockey]

You think Buffalo has to pay to get rid of Cozens?

No I do not think they have to pay to get rid of him, but often that is often the case with huge long term contracts that age poorly.

My point was I don't think a team would want to pay premium players AND picks etc to get this player.

If Buffalo wants to keep him, no package will suffice, but if they are looking to move on they won't be extracting a huge package IMO.
.

 

[gojetsgo]

Well almost 50% more points is a lot more. The two extra games are more than offset with the fact that Cozens also plays 17.5 mins a night.

I like Cozens but I think it is wild that people are clamouring for a guy that has struggled that much to produce when given all the opportunity in the world and making 7.1M but complain about Perfetti and Vlad when they are out producing him and combined make $2M less.

Players with bad long term contracts and not performing don't usually command top tier returns, in fact teams often pay to get rid of them.

when 1 good game can close the gap on point totals it's really not that significant of an amount, I'd be willing to bet if you put either perfetti/names on that buffalo team they would not nearly have as many points as they do with the jets...

you are just totally ignoring how bad buffalo is and has been, they have been in a rebuild for 13 years, they only know a culture of losing, it is hard for players to produce in a situation like that, it will not be shocking at all if cozens is traded then suddenly breaks out and everyone is wondering why their team didn't trade for him when they had a chance

 

[Gm0ney]

I was actually just typing this example up: Columbus is (was) up by 2 against NJ midway through the second. That Monahan goal just now increased CBus from 87.3% to 92.8% win, so it was worth about 5.5% of a win or 11% of a point.

And also, one of the teams chasing up for first is getting thumped by CBus 3-0

The math checks out!

 

[NA Hockey]

when 1 good game can close the gap on point totals it's really not that significant of an amount, I'd be willing to bet if you put either perfetti/names on that buffalo team they would not nearly have as many points as they do with the jets...

you are just totally ignoring how bad buffalo is and has been, they have been in a rebuild for 13 years, they only know a culture of losing, it is hard for players to produce in a situation like that, it will not be shocking at all if cozens is traded then suddenly breaks out and everyone is wondering why their team didn't trade for him when they had a chance

I don't disagree on some of what you say about the Sabres, but I believe that if Cole played 17.5 a night and on the first PP that he would have more than 20 points easily even on the Sabres. Cole doesn't get the prime ice on the jets (pp, 3 on 3 , empty net etc.) that Cozens gets. I also believe that Cole still has tonnes of growth coming while I think Cozens has stagnated.

Given the disparity in cost I think it is a no brainer. You can have Cole and 4.1M player for the price of Cozens this year.

 

[gojetsgo]

I don't disagree on some of what you say about the Sabres, but I believe that if Cole played 17.5 a night and on the first PP that he would have more than 20 points easily even on the Sabres. Cole doesn't get the prime ice on the jets (pp, 3 on 3 , empty net etc.) that Cozens gets. I also believe that Cole still has tonnes of growth coming while I think Cozens has stagnated.

Given the disparity in cost I think it is a no brainer. You can have Cole and 4.1M player for the price of Cozens.

soo perfetti has tonnes of room to grow but cozens has stagnated, even though cozens is only 1 year older then perfetti... right....

you are acting like perfetti is locked up on this long term sweat heart deal, he's going to need a raise in 2 years and that price would go way up, If cozens can return to his 30-30 form after a fresh start then his contract becomes a steal

 

[voyageur]

We should call him Bad Pionk... its more Chaos Pionk - he goes through phases where it looks like he is extra panicked about the play - maybe chasing it - and does stuff like that

Late game mistake. He was laying out some nice passes most of the night, using the boards well all game to transition zones.

On a different night maybe Samberg saves a goal there to cover for him.

If only Gabe had breakaway hands could have stolen a point. Unreal play by Josh Morrissey.

 

[NA Hockey]

soo perfetti has tonnes of room to grow but cozens has stagnated, even though cozens is only 1 year older then perfetti... right....

you are acting like perfetti is locked up on this long term sweat heart deal, he's going to need a raise in 2 years and that price would go way up, If cozens can return to his 30-30 form after a fresh start then his contract becomes a steal

I think Perfetti is still feeling his way and has shown huge improvement this year in all of the little things like board battles etc. He seems to have gained more trust from the coaches recently and has played above 16 mins a night the last 7 or 8 games which is way up from the start of the year. As he gets stronger and faster with more ice time and opportunity it looks like his trajectory is going up. One year of growth at this age can be a big deal. What does Cole look like a year from today? Cozens looks like a shell of himself this year for whatever reason. I agree if he returns to 30-30 that his contract is good but that is an if and not a certainty at this point.

As for contracts, yes Cole will get a raise in two years but in the meantime he is making significantly less while out producing Cozens. Having the extra 4M next year , if used right will be huge in the still early year of Scheif and Helly's deals.

Listen, I don't disagree that Cozems could be a good add and could breakout again on a new team, but I don't think you give up your own even younger cost controlled offensive player to get him. Some prospect and picks, sure.

Late game mistake. He was laying out some nice passes most of the night, using the boards well all game to transition zones.

On a different night maybe Samberg saves a goal there to cover for him.

If only Gabe had breakaway hands could have stolen a point. Unreal play by Josh Morrissey.

Tough play for Pionk but he was good earlier. Team definitely misses Samberg and usually Villardi is great on breakaways and in close.

Just a tough night for almost everyone. Move on to the next Saturday and put this one behind them.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

We should call him Bad Pionk... its more Chaos Pionk - he goes through phases where it looks like he is extra panicked about the play - maybe chasing it - and does stuff like that

I watched the replay of that winning goal again.

Fleury deserves some heat, if he puts his head on a swivel he would see a pretty easy reverse to Nino on the weak side. At worst it’s a chip out, and possible that Nino gets a clean exit with just the F3 (Strome) to beat.

Tip of the cap to Vatrano who makes a textbook play as the F2 on the wall. Pionk still needs to be way more situationally aware, trying to lug it out himself (with Vladdy as support) or a high flip are way more sensible plays vs. trying to risk a breakout pass through the middle of the ice.

 

[Buffdog]

I watched the replay of that winning goal again.

Fleury deserves some heat, if he puts his head on a swivel he would see a pretty easy reverse to Nino on the weak side. At worst it’s a chip out, and possible that Nino gets a clean exit with just the F3 (Strome) to beat.

Tip of the cap to Vatrano who makes a textbook play as the F2 on the wall. Pionk still needs to be way more situationally aware, trying to lug it out himself (with Vladdy as support) or a high flip are way more sensible plays vs. trying to risk a breakout pass through the middle of the ice.

Apples is more at fault than Pionk IMHO

All he has to do is seal the boards and that pass to Names leads to an easy exit

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Apples is more at fault than Pionk IMHO

All he has to do is seal the boards and that pass to Names leads to an easy exit

Good point. I could understand what 22 did in other contexts, but in a tie game with less than a minute left his only mission should be getting below Vatrano, could even give Pionk a reverse option.

I realize it’s easy to break it down on film versus when bullets are flying in real time, but that should ingrained in regulation when you’re playing for that point and a chance for another in OT. Poor situational hockey all around.

 

[JetsFan815]

I almost get the same bad vibe as the 2019-20 Jets, except instead of bleeding scoring chances they are absolutely anemic and incapable of creating consistent offense at 5v5.

Yeah until these 3 games I wasnt there. But these last few games have me starting to think about 19-20. They just had 3 games against 3 teams tanking for the 1st overall pick and at 5v5 the results ranged from a getting a complete shit kicking to merely breaking even. That was reminiscent of those 19-21 teams.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

Doubt Buffalo trades Cozens for solely a pending ufa. By July 2025 they potentially have nothing left from the trade.

This is true unless he says he will sign long term with them . Ehlers is an instant first liner on that team

Yeah until these 3 games I wasnt there. But these last few games have me starting to think about 19-20. They just had 3 games against 3 teams tanking for the 1st overall pick and at 5v5 the results ranged from a getting a complete shit kicking to merely breaking even. That was reminiscent of those 19-21 teams.

Agreed .it boils down to details and working hard. I believe this team tries but thinks offence first and lacks talent on the blue line except for Morrisey

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah. It’s a pretty reliable ratio when you graph goal differential to standings points. And if thought about logically, it makes sense.

The absolute most a goal can be worth is one point in the standings — with one second left in a tied game, it turns half a win into a win; with one second left in a game you’re down by one, it turns a 0% chance to win into a 50%

Sometimes, a goal is worth essentially 0% of a win (you let in a goal with 30s left when you’re up by 4 / down by 4)

Most goals will be worth something in the middle. But especially goals when one team is already up by 2 or more are closer to the “zero” end.

On average, yeah. About three goals to one point, so about six goals to a win.

This is an interesting breakdown.