Yeah, but then we need to absolutely bottom out if you want to get that new generation. Picking at 11-15 isn't going to do much.
Possibly. I look at it like this:
To win the Cup, you need enough guys outperforming their cap hits by a large enough margin for 2 months.
That tends to happen more often when you got superstars elevating guys, like Sid did for Guentzel in 2017. We got 13 goals out of him at league minimum. That's the traditional route.
On the flipside, we also lucked out with Murray though, who played fantastic for a 3rd rounder, just like 2nd rounder Rust came in clutch in 2016.
Vegas' sum of their parts approach worked in 2018 through 3 rounds. Didn't get enough out of guys in the Final though.
Capitals got like 3 goals from Smith-Pelley in the Final in 5 games.
The Blues won without superstars in 2019 too. O'Reilly Conn Smythe, which no one would have had on the bingo card.
14th OA Schwartz with 20 points.
I think there's multiples ways to do it. But usually with rebuilding teams there's an archetype for how GMs go about it, and that's why we end up seeing that result so much.
However I think if you picked enough in the 1st and 2nd rounds beyond #10 you could build a foundation that cumulatively puts you over the top. Need some good fortune, sure, but the more you pick the better your odds are of hitting.