Dubas' Timeline

[Andy99]

All Dubas should be doing is making sure that we select first overall in the 2026 draft so we can get Gavin McKenna…if he can get the tank job completed for that, I’ll be forever satisfied with his mediocre tenure here lol…oh that, and firing Sullivan before he gets his mitts on McKenna and ruins him…

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Yeah, but then we need to absolutely bottom out if you want to get that new generation. Picking at 11-15 isn't going to do much.

Possibly. I look at it like this:
To win the Cup, you need enough guys outperforming their cap hits by a large enough margin for 2 months.
That tends to happen more often when you got superstars elevating guys, like Sid did for Guentzel in 2017. We got 13 goals out of him at league minimum. That's the traditional route.

On the flipside, we also lucked out with Murray though, who played fantastic for a 3rd rounder, just like 2nd rounder Rust came in clutch in 2016.

Vegas' sum of their parts approach worked in 2018 through 3 rounds. Didn't get enough out of guys in the Final though.
Capitals got like 3 goals from Smith-Pelley in the Final in 5 games.

The Blues won without superstars in 2019 too. O'Reilly Conn Smythe, which no one would have had on the bingo card.
14th OA Schwartz with 20 points.

I think there's multiples ways to do it. But usually with rebuilding teams there's an archetype for how GMs go about it, and that's why we end up seeing that result so much.
However I think if you picked enough in the 1st and 2nd rounds beyond #10 you could build a foundation that cumulatively puts you over the top. Need some good fortune, sure, but the more you pick the better your odds are of hitting.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

All Dubas should be doing is making sure that we select first overall in the 2026 draft so we can get Gavin McKenna…if he can get the tank job completed for that, I’ll be forever satisfied with his mediocre tenure here lol…oh that, and firing Sullivan before he gets his mitts on McKenna and ruins him…

That isn't a plan. It is a consequence.

 

[Andy99]

That isn't a plan. It is a consequence.

It should be a plan too…we aren’t turning into a contender with trades and good UFAs won’t be signing here…get a better foundation of young players like Chicago is trying to do and build around them…we need a couple years of picking in the top one or two places of the draft

 

[Jag68Sid87]

It should be a plan too…we aren’t turning into a contender with trades and good UFAs won’t be signing here…get a better foundation of young players like Chicago is trying to do and build around them…we need a couple years of picking in the top one or two places of the draft

Why are people being paid LOTS of money to make organizational decisions, then? If the plan is merely bingo balls and rabbit's feet?

Also, if we are talking about Gavin McKenna, then we are also talking about trading 87, 71, 58 and 65.

I am not interested in that conversation.

 

[Andy99]

Why are people being paid LOTS of money to make organizational decisions, then? If the plan is merely bingo balls and rabbit's feet?

Also, if we are talking about Gavin McKenna, then we are also talking about trading 87, 71, 58 and 65.

I am not interested in that conversation.

I don’t think so…our old guys aren’t taking us anywhere with no quality youth in the lineup (and youth we have that the coach won’t play)…we’re not trading them…we’ll be at he bottom of the standings naturally, like male pattern baldness lol..Dubas is being paid to move us to the next stage of our existence

You think I’m negative…read this lol…

Penguins Blog: Rivals Make Big Moves, More Trouble for Pens

The buzz is growing around the several teams that finished behind the Pittsburgh Penguins, whose playoff aspirations now seem like a bit of a long shot after a weak start to the offseason and free agency. Another problem facing the Penguins is that even if they are slightly improved, they might...

pittsburghhockeynow.com

 

[eXile3]

Does anyone have any examples of when a team did this nebulous “soft rebuild” and it worked? In the last 20 years or so?

 

[SomeDude]

Dubas’ daily timeline:

9:00: am breakfast
9:30: let Josh Yohe out of his kennel to go outside
10:00 am - noon: Lego building
12:30-4pm: Mike Sullivan lets him play NHL24 franchise mode so Kyle thinks he’s making decisions
4 - 5: nap time
6 - 8: dinner and bath time
8:30: Sully tucks him in

 

[Peat]

Does anyone have any examples of when a team did this nebulous “soft rebuild” and it worked? In the last 20 years or so?

Arguably NYR, although their quick crater and lucking out on two getting two top three lottery picks makes it quite arguable. That said, those picks aren't what drives them. Its Fox, Shesterkin, and Panarin. And Trocheck last playoffs, at least by points.

I don't think anyone had Florida being in B2B SC finals with a win about 3 years ago but they're here because they swung a bunch of great trades and FA signings. I don't think we have the trade capital they had but they're currently the poster boy for not having to tear down a middling team.

The Blues were a fairly middle of the road team too before they swung a cup out of seemingly nowhere by trading for a bunch of Cs and getting lucky with goalie roulette.

You could argue the Stars were a pretty middle of the road team too with only one bad year before becoming a team that's been conference finals or better in 3 of the last 5 years.

I don't think it's hugely plausible but there's definitely examples of teams that had a kinda good but not good enough to overcome the lack of support core that managed to roar back into on the back of good trades, signings, and non top 15 picks. The Pens don't really have their prospects and ability to spend unless they pretty much kill it with all of their top prospects and picks, which rarely happens, but if it did and they were willing to be aggressive, and developed well, the idea they could find their own Tkachuk/Reinhart/Montour/Lundell/Forsling/Verhaeghe in a sort of three year period isn't impossible. Bloody hard, but not impossible.

 

[SomeDude]

Does anyone have any examples of when a team did this nebulous “soft rebuild” and it worked? In the last 20 years or so?

We will see how it goes this year, but on paper Washington may have done it. They got bailed out by Backstrom and Oshie LTIRetrining.

As mentioned NYR, but they have an advantage of good hockey players forcing their way to their team to live in NYC.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Does anyone have any examples of when a team did this nebulous “soft rebuild” and it worked? In the last 20 years or so?

Plenty of examples of teams being competitive without a period of hardcore tanking.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Does anyone have any examples of when a team did this nebulous “soft rebuild” and it worked? In the last 20 years or so?

Maybe Boston? But then again you've got to hit on picks like McAvoy and Pastrnak and not have those picks turn into bottom six forwards/bottom pairing defensemen or career AHLers like we seem to do with picks in those range.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Dallas
Boston
Florida
Carolina
NYR

all didn’t really go scorched earth, strip it down.

However. Everyone except Florida/Boston had a top pick at some point.

Boston has been discussed. Insane to get an elite F and 1D where they did.

Only Florida didn’t hit it big on any draft selections but already had a star in Barkov. Getting what they got out of Reinhart Montour and Forsling after acquiring them for relatively little is basically as hard as drafting a Robertson or McAvoy or Pasta outside of the top 5.

St. Louis didn’t do anything really besides selling Statsny got a hot goalie and won lmao. Haven’t really been good since.

 

[Gurglesons]

Dallas
Boston
Florida
Carolina
NYR

all didn’t really go scorched earth, strip it down.

However. Everyone except Florida/Boston had a top pick at some point.

Boston has been discussed. Insane to get an elite F and 1D where they did.

Only Florida didn’t hit it big on any draft selections but already had a star in Barkov. Getting what they got out of Reinhart Montour and Forsling after acquiring them for relatively little is basically as hard as drafting a Robertson or McAvoy or Pasta outside of the top 5.

St. Louis didn’t do anything really besides selling Statsny got a hot goalie and won lmao. Haven’t really been good since.

NYR got a 1st overall pick and a 2nd overall pick.

From 2013 - 2018, Carolina picked top 10 4 times and top 5 twice.

Florida picked 1st, 2nd and 3rd, in a 4 year span.

Dallas and Boston are correct.

They have a "go for it" organizationational attitude that never threw in the towel like we apparently are this year.

Our team over the past 4 seasosn has had a "let's not get too crazy" and only do fringe changes. Hextall got crucified for it as he should've. Now for some reason we are giving Dubas a pass when he's making the exact same moves.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

NYR got a 1st overall pick and a 2nd overall pick.

From 2013 - 2018, Carolina picked top 10 4 times and top 5 twice.

Florida picked 1st, 2nd and 3rd, in a 4 year span.

Dallas and Boston are correct.

They have a "go for it" organizationational attitude that never threw in the towel like we apparently are this year.

remember though, NYR had a massive jump to the 2nd pick from being a fringe playoff team bc they “won” the lottery. They also didn’t sell Kreider (re-upping him), kept Zib, and signed Panarin. Then acquired Trouba. They did sell off pieces however.

Carolina wasn’t like ever stripping down the team really but i acknowledged they picked Svech— they and Floridas drafts from a decade ago don’t really count tbh

I’m not trying to prove a point in either direction though.

Really the takeaway from my post should be that ELITE goaltending cures all ills. That’s the common denominator.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

As long as Erik Karlsson is a Penguin, we should keep Marcus Pettersson. And beyond that, Pettersson would be the perfect D partner for someone like Harrison Brunicke.

We should re-sign Pettersson.

What does Pettersson have to do with Karlsson? Are you speaking to their ability to play together, or just the fact that they’re both Swedish?

Karlsson still wasn't playing his game. He likes to skate around the offensive zone and look for tips and give forwards time to sneak around defenders. Here the Pens players just stand around regardless of where the Pens D moves, making it easy and predictable for the other team to defend against them. If you watch Karlssons highlights from his Norris season, what stands out the most is everyone on the ice moving, causing the other team to skate out of position.

Such a simple concept and I really wish I could understand why they never got it going over the course of 82 games.

 

[SomeDude]

Basically in order to have a quick turn around, you have to hit some home runs in the draft and/or free agency. I don’t have the greatest confidence in our organization’s current ability to do that. Especially the developing aspect of it.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

Basically in order to have a quick turn around, you have to hit some home runs in the draft and/or free agency. I don’t have the greatest confidence in our organization’s current ability to do that. Especially the developing aspect of it.

Given the lack of assets this team has had since the 2017/2018 success, there’s no way this is a quick turnaround. If Crosby wants to see this team have any sort of success again while he’s playing, he’s going to need to hold of on retirement for another 5-6 years, which would be great news for us.

 

[Khelandros]

Does anyone have any examples of when a team did this nebulous “soft rebuild” and it worked? In the last 20 years or so?

Pittsburgh Penguins, 2015-16

 

[Peat]

Dallas
Boston
Florida
Carolina
NYR

all didn’t really go scorched earth, strip it down.

However. Everyone except Florida/Boston had a top pick at some point.

Boston has been discussed. Insane to get an elite F and 1D where they did.

Only Florida didn’t hit it big on any draft selections but already had a star in Barkov. Getting what they got out of Reinhart Montour and Forsling after acquiring them for relatively little is basically as hard as drafting a Robertson or McAvoy or Pasta outside of the top 5.

St. Louis didn’t do anything really besides selling Statsny got a hot goalie and won lmao. Haven’t really been good since.

This seems in line with my views.

And I think in aggregate you're looking at basically pulling 2-3 franchise players and a further 2-3 really high end guys more or less out of your arse.

 

[Gurglesons]

remember though, NYR had a massive jump to the 2nd pick from being a fringe playoff team bc they “won” the lottery. They also didn’t sell Kreider (re-upping him), kept Zib, and signed Panarin. Then acquired Trouba. They did sell off pieces however.

Carolina wasn’t like ever stripping down the team really but i acknowledged they picked Svech— they and Floridas drafts from a decade ago don’t really count tbh

I’m not trying to prove a point in either direction though.

Really the takeaway from my post should be that ELITE goaltending cures all ills. That’s the common denominator.

They traded McDonagh, JT Miller, Rick Nash, Skeji, Hayes, Zuccarello in the span of three years.

If Dubas, does a tear down like that this year, I'll trust he's actually doing the plan he says he is.

Pittsburgh Penguins, 2015-16

Yeah, that was probably the last time we had a GM who didn't say "we tried to move players / tried to acquire players."

Rutherford for all his faults was more focused on making change then making excuses for not being able to make changes.

 

[Goodleaf]

Boston has been discussed. Insane to get an elite F and 1D where they did.

I always wonder how things would have played out for a few teams had Boston not mangled the 2015 draft.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

They traded McDonagh, JT Miller, Rick Nash, Skeji, Hayes, Zuccarello in the span of three years.

If Dubas, does a tear down like that this year, I'll trust he's actually doing the plan he says he is.

Pens don’t remotely have these pieces and you know it lmao.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Basically in order to have a quick turn around, you have to hit some home runs in the draft and/or free agency. I don’t have the greatest confidence in our organization’s current ability to do that. Especially the developing aspect of it.

Free agency will be difficult for us.

We’ve had trouble attracting high end talent while Sid & Geno were at their peaks.

 

[Gurglesons]

Pens don’t remotely have these pieces and you know it lmao.

They can trade a retain EK65. That's bringing back a 1st.

They can move Pettersson and hope to get back a 1st. Doubt it will happen.

Eller, DOC, Bunting.

Those four players should be gone this deadline regardless of what we do.