Dubas details his 'biggest mistake' as Leafs GM in new book

[The Hanging Jowl]

So 2 dumb GM’s then wanted to overpay him.

Several GM's put in offers. Some were completely rejected (e.g. Montreal). All of this is well known. Your hatred of the Leafs is changing your memory.

He was the 2nd highest paid forward in hockey but was nowhere near the 2nd best producing forward in hockey for pretty much his entire tenure. How is that holding up his end of the bargain?

Dude didn't finish top 10 in scoring any of his years in Toronto, yet was paid like he was a perennial threat to win the Art Ross.

Still amazes me that there are still some Leaf fans who will defend the Tavares contract. You paid for Nathan MacKinnon but instead got Mark Scheifele.

He was UFA. it's just how it works. More importantly, when you don't have to give up any prospects, picks or roster players to acquire a highly sought talent, it completely changes the equation.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Several GM's put in offers. Some were completely rejected (e.g. Montreal). All of this is well known. Your hatred of the Leafs is changing your memory.



He was UFA. it's just how it works. More importantly, when you don't have to give up any prospects, picks or roster players to acquire a highly sought talent, it completely changes the equation.

As badly as Dubas wanted to sign Tavares - and the feeling was mutual, obviously - the Leafs didn't need him. At all.

That was Dubas's mistake, thinking they needed Tavares in the first place.

 

[Gorskyontario]

Did he write about the respect his teams got in the handshake line?

 

[Chuck Norris Trophy]

Did he write about the respect his teams got in the handshake line?

GOD DAMN that' a sick reference.

Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

 

[behemolari]

his biggest mistake, writing the book

 

[KingsFan7824]

As badly as Dubas wanted to sign Tavares - and the feeling was mutual, obviously - the Leafs didn't need him. At all.

That was Dubas's mistake, thinking they needed Tavares in the first place.

Did he think they needed him, or did he want him?

 

[Shane Diesel]

GOD DAMN that' a sick reference.

Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

The Toronto Maple Laughs

 

[hotpaws]

In hindsight, yeah, dumb signing overall. But at the same time, imagine the backlash if he DOESN'T sign Tavaras. Imagine the Toronto fan and media reaction: O.M.G. you have a 1ov talent like Tavaras that wants to play for his boyhood team! OMG how could you not sign him! That's the kind of 1C franchise player you MAKE ROOM FOR! Huge opportunity missed! OMG if they don't win, it will be because of this!

I think for Tavaras, he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

yeah it probably would have been the same backlash as when they didn't make cap space to sign franchise num 1 rhd Petro

 

[joestevens29]

I had to read way too far into this thread to find someone with sense who isn’t afraid to blame the players here.

The truth is that Dubas wasn’t perfect but the players he bet on were f***ing terrible

That’s not on Dubas, they were supposed to be good. The failures here are fall mostly on the players shoulders

And who brought said players in…..

 

[Gorskyontario]

GOD DAMN that' a sick reference.

Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

He admitted that the goal of the maple leafs was respect in the handshake line.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

He was UFA. it's just how it works. More importantly, when you don't have to give up any prospects, picks or roster players to acquire a highly sought talent, it completely changes the equation.

That's the type of thought process that leads to GMs signing UFAs to dumb deals.

"Hey, he didn't cost us an asset. So why not?"

Why not? Because it takes up cap space and has a ripple effect on any other signings you'll need to make in the not so distant future, that's why not.

Tavares is not, and never was, worth the salary he got. You signed a "good" player to elite player money. And it's even worse when you remove his first season with the Leafs. His numbers have been downright brutal considering his salary after Year 1.

 

[SwedishFire]

He was offered more by other teams. No one disputes this.

There are so many answers here, like

1. I get they wanted a "coming home" trend by players, to any price, thats stupid. If the pricetag just is raising, you ask for a hometown discount and that NMC, not high salary AND a NMC. A real rookie misstake by Shannahan and Dubas.

2. When the pricetag kept raising, whybjust not leave it there? They also had other bigger needs. Esp. In a league where hreat 1D pairs is in a seldom commodity. They should had went for defenders with that dollars.

3. Dubas knew that the threw young forward stars would command dollars, and evem compare im between, but he settled himself in a complete trap.

Two years left of tavates, then toronto could be competing.

And i wpuld ask Tabares after the deal for that 1-3 million dollar contract - you got your money - now you have to give us some payback - if you really want to win the cup.

Dubas misstake that then just snowballed everything else.

That Matthews contract, I do have. It expires in his absomute prime, with just maxing out his dollars, bending over Dubas and Shamnahan completly. Then he put himself in a corner with the rest. HE did good with Nylander, but why just Nylander. Why not trying a hometown thing with Marner? Keep dollas a bit down and put in a NTC turning to a NMC, 6-8 years? Noo??

The right signings would had been
Tavares 8.75 M x 8 years NTC becoming a NMC, anounced as a hometown discount, and talks about future captain role.

Matthews to a 3 years x 11M
Marner to a 8 years x 8 millions.
Nylandernhis contract.

I saved almost 6 millions there.
And I put them on a defender.

Goalies, you can just pray for a find.

 

[The Panther]

Dubas made his own, significant contributions to modern Leafs' history.

 

[Silky Johnson]

When stuff comes out about GMs like this, I truly believe most of HF users could run a team. Not even kidding.

Kinda, but only because there are a lot of dumbasses on HFB.

Most Hockey decision makers are former players. And most Hockey players aren't that bright or educated. Relative to revenue there are very few moving parts on a Hockey business and the CBA gives a cost certainly that rarely exists elsewhere.

Managing the cap should not be that hard. Running a business with a couple hundred employees is not that hard.

The hardest part is drafting/scouting/analytics, which a good business manager can outsource.

But ultimately it's a vanity project for most owners and they want to hang out with former players. Ultimate "old boys club".

 

[Golden_Jet]

Several GM's put in offers. Some were completely rejected (e.g. Montreal). All of this is well known. Your hatred of the Leafs is changing your memory.

lol, so there are possibly more than 2 dumb ones then, if it’s so well known what were the other offers then, more than 11 or less than 11.


he was overpaid at the time, that’s not hatred, that’s an opinion shared by loads of people, including a lot of leaf fans.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Agreed. People with hindsight say the Nylander contract wasn't overpaid - it was though. Comparables at the time signed either for way less, or for less AND longer.

In terms of his tenure overall... Think about his five best moves and his five worst moves, I struggle to come up with 5 really solid good moves, but can easily come up with 5+ bad ones.

Five Best Moves:
-Signing Brodie
-Signing Bunting for cheap
-1st + 2nd + Anderson for McCabe (50% retention) + Lafferty
-Schenn for a 3rd
-Dumping Zaitsev for one year or Ceci (cost Connor Brown)

Five Worst Moves (hard to come up with just 5, so take your pick):
-Kadri for Barrie + Kerfoot
-Marchment for Malgin (obsession with "skill" over size)
-1st + two 4ths for Foligno
-1st to move ONE year of Marleau (turned into Seth Jarvis, exactly the type of cheap ELC impact player we could have used)
-Big Four contracts (which are arguably four separate mistakes)
-Mrazek contract
-Protecting Holl over McCann in the expansion draft
-Letting Hyman walk when he wanted to stay
-Will stop here, but there are more (eg Murray, not firing Keefe, not shaking up the Core Four, etc)

Even some moves that are generally praised (eg acquiring Muzzin, acquiring Campbell, moving Zaitsev, etc), he gave up good value for, so I wouldn't say they were slam dunk good moves. Like Muzzin cost a 1st + Durzi (who has become a young top 4 RHD) + Grundstrom. Campbell cost Trevor Moore and a 3rd, and ultimately struggled for us when it counted and got us nowhere. Moving Zaitsev cost Connor Brown.

This is a good summation of Dubas' tenure with the Leafs. The only thing I will add is he was a GM that was an enabler, he caved and coddled the young core. Instead of installing accountability as Lou Lamoriello did, he enabled the kids to run the zoo. When you build a culture like this, there is no hierarchy. We can easily go over all the disastrous moves he Dubas made in his tenure, to me this was his biggest failure. He was a pushover GM to players and agents, and he had the nerve to try an end around to oust Shanahan for control of the Leafs. Bad character and GM. He somehow hoodwinked the Pens into 35M dollar contract to be the President of their organization. No one should be surprised, he always knew how to ace an Interview but when you get to the meat and bones of Dubas his resume was all dressed up.

 

[Mrfenn92]

This is a good summation of Dubas' tenure with the Leafs. The only thing I will add is he was a GM that was an enabler, he caved and coddled the young core. Instead of installing accountability as Lou Lamoriello did, he enabled the kids to run the zoo. When you build a culture like this, there is no hierarchy. We can easily go over all the disastrous moves he Dubas made in his tenure, to me this was his biggest failure. He was a pushover GM to players and agents, and he had the nerve to try an end around to oust Shanahan for control of the Leafs. Bad character and GM. He somehow hoodwinked the Pens into 35M dollar contract to be the President of their organization. No one should be surprised, he always knew how to ace an Interview but when you get to the meat and bones of Dubas his resume was all dressed up.

All fairness Brendan shanahan is just as culpable as dubas

 

[Goose]

I got fired from my job at the bank, but now, a few years later, I realize that my biggest mistake was when I used to make little piles of cash and set them on fire.

Time has given me the clarity to see how that wasn’t the right way to help operate a bank.

 

[Jeremy2020]

 

[Oilslick941611]

All fairness Brendan shanahan is just as culpable as dubas

maybe even more so now that we know all decision had to run through him. Kinda crazy that Shannan is still around.

 

[mattyboy]

He’s not a good GM

 

[Strangle]

And who brought said players in…..

I don’t think you realize how players end up on teams.

The league doesn’t work the same way your fantasy draft does

 

[kingsholygrail]

His biggest mistake. Taking a job he was/is totally unqualified for.

That's the biggest mistake for who hired him. It's everyone's dream to get a nice job they're totally unqualified for.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Even after the fact, what RFAs have gotten contracts as bloated as Matthews and Marner?

It's not just the dollar value, or the term - everything about that contract favoured Matthews. It's outrageous how one-sided the negotiation appears to have been (especially since Matthews was an RFA at the time).

Underneath the spoiler tag (because it's a long tangent), here's a summary of how badly that contract was handled:

Spoiler: lengthy tangent

I think Matthews' agent took Dubas for a ride when his previous contract was signed in 2019. Forget about the dollar value and term - everything about how the contract was negotiated favours Matthews.

From a tax standpoint, it allowed him to structure his affairs in such a way that he'll save millions of dollars in income tax over the course of his career (by potentially enabling him to pay tax on the majority of his income at Arizona rates, which is more than 10% lower than Ontario's top rate).

From a finance standpoint, the contract was frontloaded. Matthews collected 53% of his earnings in the first 13 months of a five year contract. That's stunning. It means Matthews received and could start investing his earnings sooner. Over the course of his career, the impact on his net worth would be substantial.

From a leverage standpoint, Matthews was given a NMC (granted, only for the final year). This is the least of the concerns.

I don't fault Matthews for this. In fact, I've commended him for getting good advice. But you'd think that by offering these huge advantages to Matthews, Dubas would have been able to negotiate a lower AAV.

If I were in Dubas's place, negotiating with Matthews, I would have said something like - "Auston, we think you're one of the best players in the league, and we want you in Toronto long-term. I've spoke to the Board, and we're going to front load your contact, so you'll be getting more than half your money in just over one-fifth of the term. And we'll play ball with you, so that your advisors can put an extra million dollars in your pocket annually, by ensuring you're an Arizona resident for tax purposes. Plus, we'll give you the NMC that you requested. And we'll agree to only a five year term, even though we would have wanted longer.

But we're not willing to make you the 3rd highest player in the league next year. First, I'm already offering you these two substantial advantages that will save you millions of dollars. That has to be taken into account when we determine your salary. Second, you're asking for more money than Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Kane, MacKinnion, Kucherov, etc - but you've never placed in the 20 (let alone the top 10) in scoring. We can't pay for potential, we need results. Third, you're averaging 44 points per 82 games in the playoff. Granted, small sample size, but this city hasn't won a playoff series in almost two decades, and we need to see results in the spring. Fourth, you're an RFA, so you don't have a ton of leverage here if I don't play ball with this."

Instead, Dubas gave Matthews a huge salary, structured the contract in a way that adds millions of dollars of value on top of that, and ignored the leverage he had given Matthews' RFA status. In turn, this raised the salary expectations for Marner and Nylander. Having so much money tied up in three or four forwards (Tavares) hasn't proven to be a winning strategy (for any team) during the salary cap era. I think the Tavares contract was the first step, but Matthews' 2019 contract, in many ways, was even worse. (Matthews' new contract suffers from many of these flaws from the Leafs' perspective - but it would be hard for a new GM to try to negotiate back from what Dubas already agreed to, especially since they no longer have leverage given his impending UFA status).

 

[joestevens29]

I don’t think you realize how players end up on teams.

The league doesn’t work the same way your fantasy draft does

I’m fully aware Dubas didn’t do any research when acquiring players other than looking at an excel sheet