Player Discussion Drake Batherson (RW) - Part II

[Ice-Tray]

First Brady, now Bath, you just know buddy is on to Jimmy next….

[MOD]

 

[JD1]

[MOD]

Anyone who says Batherson is unskilled has no hockey knowledge whatsoever. The kid can do almost anything with the puck. His skating could use work and if he could add even half a step he'll be a top 15 RW in the league.

Try to list a pair of 1st line wingers with comparable height, weight, feistiness and skill.

They're going to be a real problem for opposing defenders

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Unless his demands are ridiculous, I think you need to try really, really hard to get a deal done in the 5-8 yr range.

 

[playasRus]

Would be nice to get Batherson at under the Garland contract ($24.75M/5 years). Garland being 2 years older but out producing with an extra year of consistency versus Drake.

$20.75M/5 years would be great.
Or if he wants a prove himself contract, will have to be well below the $4.95M/year average Garland got, closer to $2.95M/year x 2 years.

I'm predicting the reason he hasn't signed yet is because he doesn't want a bridge and wants to intermediate length contract taking him to UFA. Ironing out that annual average and Brady being priority are hold ups.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

I doubt he's asking for anything north of 4M...They're trying to nickle and dime the fella

 

[JD1]

Would be nice to get Batherson at under the Garland contract ($24.75M/5 years). Garland being 2 years older but out producing with an extra year of consistency versus Drake.

$20.75M/5 years would be great.
Or if he wants a prove himself contract, will have to be well below the $4.95M/year average Garland got, closer to $2.95M/year x 2 years.

I'm predicting the reason he hasn't signed yet is because he doesn't want a bridge and wants to intermediate length contract taking him to UFA. Ironing out that annual average and Brady being priority are hold ups.

Idk about straight to ufa but longer term sure. The team is probably a bit hesitant because of the White contract. Either way I think they get the Tkachuk deal done first

 

[Sweatred]

Idk about straight to ufa but longer term sure. The team is probably a bit hesitant because of the White contract. Either way I think they get the Tkachuk deal done first

Bath is a much better developed player and he has range of skills to rely on beyond skating. Bath should get something close to the White contact.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Idk about straight to ufa but longer term sure. The team is probably a bit hesitant because of the White contract. Either way I think they get the Tkachuk deal done first

I bet Drake himself is waiting for Brady's contract. That will give him a lot of leverage for his own contract.

 

[Xspyrit]

Personally, if Drake is ok with going 8 years x 5.5, I'd do it

Yes he might leave a bit of money on the table in the end but if he signs a 2-3 years bridge, he'd make considerably less these first years

Let's say he'd sign 3.0 x 3 years if it was a bridge
If he goes 8 years, that's 7.5 more during the first 3 years

And who's to say the Sens would want to sign him more than 5 years after that bridge? Yes, potential to make more, but there's always risks vs "guaranteed money"

Which side wouldn't do 8 years x 5.5 ???

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Personally, if Drake is ok with going 8 years x 5.5, I'd do it

Yes he might leave a bit of money on the table in the end but if he signs a 2-3 years bridge, he'd make considerably less these first years

Let's say he'd sign 3.0 x 3 years if it was a bridge
If he goes 8 years, that's 7.5 more during the first 3 years

And who's to say the Sens would want to sign him more than 5 years after that bridge? Yes, potential to make more, but there's always risks vs "guaranteed money"

Which side wouldn't do 8 years x 5.5 ???

Not saying it's right but I'd say the Sens balk at an 8 year $44M contract for Batherson. It could be an absolute steal as early as next year though. I think he becomes a consistent 60 point player in the right situation.

 

[Xspyrit]

Not saying it's right but I'd say the Sens balk at an 8 year $44M contract for Batherson. It could be an absolute steal as early as next year though. I think he becomes a consistent 60 point player in the right situation.

So it depends on how much they believe in Batherson. If they believe in him like you and me, they would go for that 5.5 x 8 years, no?

 

[Sweatred]

Batherson has a strong diversified game. He can play a power or skilled game and can protect and steal pucks. He has lots of skills to develop and pathways to reinvent his style as needed vs some players who have one NHL skill.

Risk with every extension but No problem signing long term to something in the $5 range.

 

[PlayOn]

Personally, if Drake is ok with going 8 years x 5.5, I'd do it

Yes he might leave a bit of money on the table in the end but if he signs a 2-3 years bridge, he'd make considerably less these first years

Let's say he'd sign 3.0 x 3 years if it was a bridge
If he goes 8 years, that's 7.5 more during the first 3 years

And who's to say the Sens would want to sign him more than 5 years after that bridge? Yes, potential to make more, but there's always risks vs "guaranteed money"

Which side wouldn't do 8 years x 5.5 ???

PM stated in March that Batherson should be signed long-term and he sees him as a 30 goal scorer, so that’s some food for thought. Pierre said doing a bridge will cost you too much.

McGuire: Batherson needs a long term deal, not a bridge contract

IMO 6 years is the ideal term for Bath. I think you have to be realistic about how many 8 year deals you hand out, and Brady/Stu take precedent for me. Then you have to consider you need centres, Sanderson is coming up too and Batherson is still somewhat unproven, I’d aim for 6 vs 8.

I also think it works better for Batherson as he’ll be 29 and can still cash in again, more so than if he were 31.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

So it depends on how much they believe in Batherson. If they believe in him like you and me, they would go for that 5.5 x 8 years, no?

I would say yes but so much with this franchise comes down to money. I suspect they'll kick the can down the road so save money in the short term. It'll likely backfire within 3 years.

For reference Kyle Palmieri, who just signed for 4 years at $5M at age 30, has produced at the same pace as Batherson for the last two years. While Palmieri is certainly more proven he is 30 and coming off of a down year, whereas Batherson's rate is based on a year where he was promoted part-time and his fist full season. I know which one I think is going to produce more over the next 4 years. $5.5M for Batherson is a bit of a gamble for the next couple of years but nothing crazy. After that it is likely to be a steal.

A bridge at ~$3M is likely to happen followed by Bath maybe pricing himself out of town. But it would save $5M over the next two years. And I think that's of more value to the franchise right now.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Personally, if Drake is ok with going 8 years x 5.5, I'd do it

Yes he might leave a bit of money on the table in the end but if he signs a 2-3 years bridge, he'd make considerably less these first years

Let's say he'd sign 3.0 x 3 years if it was a bridge
If he goes 8 years, that's 7.5 more during the first 3 years

And who's to say the Sens would want to sign him more than 5 years after that bridge? Yes, potential to make more, but there's always risks vs "guaranteed money"

Which side wouldn't do 8 years x 5.5 ???

I'm not sure why Batherson would tbh. Especially the 8 years, so far he's put up 53 points in 99 NHL games thats a solid pace and one can argue he's already worth the 5.5m considering his motor and physical game.

Right now the only thing that seems to be holding him from being a legitimate 1st liner is his skating. but he's till only 23 so why wouldn't Batherson want to bet on himself? locking himself up for 8 years at such a low rate would be mistake on his part. he might hit 60 this year, perhaps 70 next year. unlikely sure, but he's got such a complete skillset that it is easy to make the argument that he could go off.

 

[Sweatred]

I'm not sure why Batherson would tbh. Especially the 8 years, so far he's put up 53 points in 99 NHL games thats a solid pace and one can argue he's already worth the 5.5m considering his motor and physical game.

Right now the only thing that seems to be holding him from being a legitimate 1st liner is his skating. but he's till only 23 so why wouldn't Batherson want to bet on himself? locking himself up for 8 years at such a low rate would be mistake on his part. he might hit 60 this year, perhaps 70 next year. unlikely sure, but he's got such a complete skillset that it is easy to make the argument that he could go off.

Not to mention to try to move to any City he wants too…

 

[ATdaisuki]

I feel like Drake will only sign for five or six years. Good number of years of service here, shows some commitment, good financial security, and sets him up for a big UFA payday.

 

[Xspyrit]

I would say yes but so much with this franchise comes down to money. I suspect they'll kick the can down the road so save money in the short term. It'll likely backfire within 3 years.

For reference Kyle Palmieri, who just signed for 4 years at $5M at age 30, has produced at the same pace as Batherson for the last two years. While Palmieri is certainly more proven he is 30 and coming off of a down year, whereas Batherson's rate is based on a year where he was promoted part-time and his fist full season. I know which one I think is going to produce more over the next 4 years. $5.5M for Batherson is a bit of a gamble for the next couple of years but nothing crazy. After that it is likely to be a steal.

I have no idea how you could say that

A bridge at ~$3M is likely to happen followed by Bath maybe pricing himself out of town. But it would save $5M over the next two years. And I think that's of more value to the franchise right now.

Yeah, most likely to happen unfortunately, the short term bottom line FTW!

Should I go for a frontflip or backflip?

I'm not sure why Batherson would tbh. Especially the 8 years, so far he's put up 53 points in 99 NHL games thats a solid pace and one can argue he's already worth the 5.5m considering his motor and physical game.

Right now the only thing that seems to be holding him from being a legitimate 1st liner is his skating. but he's till only 23 so why wouldn't Batherson want to bet on himself? locking himself up for 8 years at such a low rate would be mistake on his part. he might hit 60 this year, perhaps 70 next year. unlikely sure, but he's got such a complete skillset that it is easy to make the argument that he could go off.

It's betting on yourself vs guaranteed money. I mean, 44 M$ is nothing to scoff at, I wouldn't call it "such a low rate". In the end, it is, how much does his camp think he'll be worth in 4-5 years?

 

[Ouroboros]

I can't see how a contract that pays Drake Batherson 5.5M+ over 6+ years makes any sense.

Batherson has 4 RFA years left. When you look at the recent contracts his statistical comparables have signed you can get a good handle on what those are worth.

Eeli Tolvanen signed 3 years, 4.35M [1.45M per, flat structure]
Max Comtois signed 2 years, 4.075M [1.525M, 2.55M]
Jordan Kyrou signed 2 years, 5.6M [2.4M, 3.2M]
Dillon Dube signed 3 years, 6.9M [2.2M, 2.3M, 2.4M]
Yegor Sharangovich signed 2 years, 4.0M [1.8M, 2.2M]


So a fair bridge contract for Batherson probably looks like 2 years, 4.5M [1.9M, 2.6M] or 3 years, 7.5M [1.9M, 2.6M, 3.0M]. Maybe on his last RFA year you pay him 4.25M or something?

What exactly are you valuing his UFA years at? 10M? Too much downside risk. Why overpay when it isn't necessary? Conor Garland is getting 6.0M on his UFA years, Jakub Vrana is getting 5.75M, Tyler Bertuzzi is getting 5.25M. Pure UFA wingers are signing at 4.5 - 5.5M on long-term deals [Saad, Granlund, Schwartz].

6 years, 22.5M [1.9M, 2.6M, 3.0M, 4.25M, 5.25M, 5.5M] is a perfectly fair offer. He may prefer the bridge, but the cap will essentially be the same at that point so unless he has a massive breakout the numbers won't change much. The only thing that changes is the risk profile.

 

[Crosside]

Sens' Batherson not worried about contract; aims to take game to next level

 

[Sweatred]

I can't see how a contract that pays Drake Batherson 5.5M+ over 6+ years makes any sense.

Batherson has 4 RFA years left. When you look at the recent contracts his statistical comparables have signed you can get a good handle on what those are worth.

Eeli Tolvanen signed 3 years, 4.35M [1.45M per, flat structure]
Max Comtois signed 2 years, 4.075M [1.525M, 2.55M]
Jordan Kyrou signed 2 years, 5.6M [2.4M, 3.2M]
Dillon Dube signed 3 years, 6.9M [2.2M, 2.3M, 2.4M]
Yegor Sharangovich signed 2 years, 4.0M [1.8M, 2.2M]


So a fair bridge contract for Batherson probably looks like 2 years, 4.5M [1.9M, 2.6M] or 3 years, 7.5M [1.9M, 2.6M, 3.0M]. Maybe on his last RFA year you pay him 4.25M or something?

What exactly are you valuing his UFA years at? 10M? Too much downside risk. Why overpay when it isn't necessary? Conor Garland is getting 6.0M on his UFA years, Jakub Vrana is getting 5.75M, Tyler Bertuzzi is getting 5.25M. Pure UFA wingers are signing at 4.5 - 5.5M on long-term deals [Saad, Granlund, Schwartz].

6 years, 22.5M [1.9M, 2.6M, 3.0M, 4.25M, 5.25M, 5.5M] is a perfectly fair offer. He may prefer the bridge, but the cap will essentially be the same at that point so unless he has a massive breakout the numbers won't change much. The only thing that changes is the risk profile.

That’s the part of contracts people exaggerate …. The same as White’s - they guy would need to shred the league to make any positive value on $6.25.

I think teams save more on bridges … at least more than what they think given all the risk and negative value that comes with long term deals.

Perhaps the odd 1D, 1C, or odd winger but for the most part bridges are safer than most think.

 

[dumbdick]

Anyone else a bit worried about his consistency? I love Drake, but i find he goes through some quiet games sometimes.

 

[Sweatred]

Anyone else a bit worried about his consistency? I love Drake, but i find he goes through some quiet games sometimes.

Not really - 20G streaky scorers are as valuable as 20G consistent scorers… he does enough little things during his quiet games to keep value …

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Cough deals should be done cough

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Anyone else a bit worried about his consistency? I love Drake, but i find he goes through some quiet games sometimes.

Well if he didn’t go through some quiet games coming off his ELC he would be a 10 million dollar winger and would be even less signed than he currently is