Value of: Draisaitl New Contract

[VivaLasVegas]

Leon's current contract ends at the end of the 24-25 season. He is currently making $8M per year, with a cap hit of $8.5M. If hypothetically the Oilers were to renegotiate his contract at the end of this 23-24 season, what sort of deal do you think Leon would be able to negotiate?

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[FriendlyGhost92]

You can't really make an argument that he deserves less cap hit than MacKinnon or Matthews at this point, so it'll come down to whether they can convince him to take less because McDavid is coming up the year after.

... But if you're Leon, why do you listen to Ken Holland trying to convince you to take a deal when he's done very little to put Edmonton's core in a spot to make a legit Cup challenge?

I wanna say 8 x $13M, but I can see it going for less, just because they may not want him to make more than McDavid. If you want symbolism? 8 x $12.4M.

 

[Stephen]

I think his ask depends on what his motivations are as a star player. Does he want to be the Malkin to McDavid's Crosby, or does he see himself as a standalone superstar as good as anyone else in the game. If it's the former, maybe you see a modest increase over what McDavid is making now, but I have a hard time seeing a guy make financial decisions and slot himself under a contract that was signed in 2018. If it's the latter, maybe he just wants to go full throttle and chase the big money out of town.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I think his ask depends on what his motivations are as a star player. Does he want to be the Malkin to McDavid's Crosby, or does he see himself as a standalone superstar as good as anyone else in the game. If it's the former, maybe you see a modest increase over what McDavid is making now, but I have a hard time seeing a guy make financial decisions and slot himself under a contract that was signed in 2018. If it's the latter, maybe he just wants to go full throttle and chase the big money out of town.

Honestly, it may not be just money chasing him out of town.

Two of the top 5 players in the world and they haven't come close to sniffing a Cup because management can't build a worthwhile supporting cast.

And it's not like the Leafs where their cap structure wouldn't allow it. Ken Holland, for some reason, inexplicably thought 39 year old Mike Smith was going to backstop a team to the Cups with Brett Kulak as his big TDL acquisition. And then his big plan to make up for his piss poor decisions was to sign a noted headcase of a goalie to a 5 year $25M contract...

 

[MoneyManny]

You can't really make an argument that he deserves less cap hit than MacKinnon or Matthews at this point, so it'll come down to whether they can convince him to take less because McDavid is coming up the year after.

... But if you're Leon, why do you listen to Ken Holland trying to convince you to take a deal when he's done very little to put Edmonton's core in a spot to make a legit Cup challenge?

I wanna say 8 x $13M, but I can see it going for less, just because they may not want him to make more than McDavid. If you want symbolism? 8 x $12.4M.

There is absolutely no reason for Leon to sign for less than McDavid, that's not how sports contract negociation works.

Whenever Drai signs his next contract it will be NHL's highest if he wants it to be.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I think NHLPA will push his agent to break the $14 million dollar AAV and McDavid breaks through the $15 or 16 million dollar mark. Getting ever closer to a potential $20 million dollar player in Bedard [likely when he turns 26 or so]?

I see some team like Arizona going big time hunting, lining up with new arena and finally taking the next step in this rebuild.

8 years x $14.25 million

 

[AvroArrow]

Actual value, 9.5M

McDavid inflation effect, 12-12.5M

Whatever team pays him that will regret it. Great player but massively over rated by far too many people, he's a star but not top 5 like so many suggest.

 

[Kupo]

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Actual value, 9.5M

McDavid inflation effect, 12-12.5M

Whatever team pays him that will regret it. Great player but massively over rated by far too many people, he's a star but not top 5 like so many suggest.

Damn, so how inflated are the other members of the Leafs core due to playing with Matthews?

 

[Suntouchable13]

I think NHLPA will push his agent to break the $14 million dollar AAV and McDavid breaks through the $15 or 16 million dollar mark. Getting ever closer to a potential $20 million dollar player in Bedard [likely when he turns 26 or so]?

I see some team like Arizona going big time hunting, lining up with new arena and finally taking the next step in this rebuild.

8 years x $14.25 million

You can't win the Stanley Cup when 2 guys take up so much of the cap. Just can not. They can go HAM, like they did in the 2022 playoffs but that still wasn't nearly enough. These guys can chase the money, that's fine, but they ain't wininng anything till they are much older and sign for a fraction of what they are making now with a Stanley Cup contender. IF he re-signs in Edmonton, he knows full well he ain't winning the cup. I just don't think it's possible.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

You can't win the Stanley Cup when 2 guys take up so much of the cap. Just can not. They can go HAM, like they did in the 2022 playoffs but that still wasn't nearly enough. These guys can chase the money, that's fine, but they ain't wininng anything till they are much older and sign for a fraction of what they are making now with a Stanley Cup contender. IF he re-signs in Edmonton, he knows full well he ain't winning the cup. I just don't think it's possible.

That's why i said Draisaitl would go to Arizona, i don't think either of McDrai stay in Edmonton.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

7x14m somewhere else. sorry Oilers but I just dont see him sticking around in cold ass Edmonton

 

[Suntouchable13]

That's why i said Draisaitl would go to Arizona, i don't think either of McDrai stay in Edmonton.

True. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

7x14m somewhere else. sorry Oilers but I just dont see him sticking around in cold ass Edmonton

In order to win, I think they have to separate anyway. They need to build a more balanced team. 2 superstars obviously hasn't worked. It's not going to work with both of them making double digit AAVs either.

 

[EK392000]

I think a team pays a first to acquire his rights and then signs him to an 8 year deal.

The formula of two top 5 forwards hasn’t worked and there’s no reason to believe it will work when the rest of the roster is constructed the way it is. They’ve filled it with spare parts and that’ll only get worse when Drai gets a big raise and there’s less money to go around.

He should go be a star for his own team.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I think a team pays a first to acquire his rights and then signs him to an 8 year deal.

The formula of two top 5 forwards hasn’t worked and there’s no reason to believe it will work when the rest of the roster is constructed the way it is. They’ve filled it with spare parts and that’ll only get worse when Drai gets a big raise and there’s less money to go around.

He should go be a star for his own team.

I think a team pays a first to acquire his rights and then signs him to an 8 year deal.

The formula of two top 5 forwards hasn’t worked and there’s no reason to believe it will work when the rest of the roster is constructed the way it is. They’ve filled it with spare parts and that’ll only get worse when Drai gets a big raise and there’s less money to go around.

He should go be a start

So you're saying a team will acquire his rights and then signs him to an 8 year deal?

And then

So you're saying a team...

 

[Larry Hanson]

I don't think he'll take any sort of discount. Despite the fact that his contract turned into a bargain he didn't take any discount last time, he signed for well above his comparables at the time. Nobody else took a discount except McDavid (who probably regrets it) and maybe RNH (but he got term).

I think NHLPA will push his agent to break the $14 million dollar AAV and McDavid breaks through the $15 or 16 million dollar mark. Getting ever closer to a potential $20 million dollar player in Bedard [likely when he turns 26 or so]?

Why would the NHLPA care?
The players get 50% regardless of what the biggest contract is. If one player takes a huge chunk it just lowers what everyone else gets.

 

[AvroArrow]

Damn, so how inflated are the other members of the Leafs core due to playing with Matthews?

Matthews isn't McDavid, not even remotely close. McDavid is by FAR the greatest player of his generation. Maroon 30 goals, Hyman having career years, even Draisaitls numbers with McDavid and on the PP with McDavid, vs away from McDavid have a significant difference.

McDavid will inflate any players numbers, it's not exclusive to Drai. If somehow Matthews was on his wing, I legitimately believe he scores 80+ goals, McDavid is THAT dominant.

Draisaitl is more in the range of players like Kyle Connor, Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner. If he ever plays on another team, you will see it for yourself. Numbers have people fooled.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I don't think he'll take any sort of discount. Despite the fact that his contract turned into a bargain he didn't take any discount last time, he signed for well above his comparables at the time. Nobody else took a discount except McDavid (who probably regrets it) and maybe RNH (but he got term).


Why would the NHLPA care?
The players get 50% regardless of what the biggest contract is. If one player takes a huge chunk it just lowers what everyone else gets.

NHL Contracts Are Becoming More and More 'Lockout-Proof' - The Hockey Writers The Business of Hockey Latest News, Analysis & More

A potential lockout in the NHL may be put off for now, but it is looking like players are expecting anything but smooth sailing in the future.

thehockeywriters.com

Read that article above, essentially signing bonuses for players are being encouraged by NHLPA because they're lockout proof. The current CBA is set to expire in 2026, pushed back of previous 2022 expiration date because of Covid.

NHL has less leverage if more players have "guaranteed money" in form of SB's.
I bring this up because Draisaitl will structure his deal a lot like Tavares and other star players to maximize lost tax money, SBs are taxed at a much lower rate than standard salary.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Matthews isn't McDavid, not even remotely close. McDavid is by FAR the greatest player of his generation. Maroon 30 goals, Hyman having career years, even Draisaitls numbers with McDavid and on the PP with McDavid, vs away from McDavid have a significant difference.

McDavid will inflate any players numbers, it's not exclusive to Drai. If somehow Matthews was on his wing, I legitimately believe he scores 80+ goals, McDavid is THAT dominant.

Draisaitl is more in the range of players like Kyle Connor, Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner. If he ever plays on another team, you will see it for yourself. Numbers have people fooled.

Ahh. That explains why Matthews is making $750K more than McDavid at half as much term.

 

[Hierso]

12,5 feels like it's fair for both parties.

 

[Coffey]

7x14m somewhere else. sorry Oilers but I just dont see him sticking around in cold ass Edmonton

-5 is that cold for you? Wuss.

 

[Roof Daddy]

12,5 feels like it's fair for both parties.

I’ve felt this to be the case for a while. Drai gets 12.5 x 8, then next off-season McDavid gets 15 x 8.

 

[M Ace]

Draisaitl has Boston written all over him. 14 mil x 7 when he hits free agenzy!

 

[Arthur Morgan]

-5 is that cold for you? Wuss.

maybe right now but it's going to get alot colder than that

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

He will break the market again just like first go around