GDT: Draft Day 2019

[Navin R Slavin]

Your opinion is noted. I said we killed the draft. There's no denying we had a successful one. And if it had happened in any of the previous 5-8 years, I'd have been happy.

But as I said, doing it this year just seems out of place. I don't think I was the only one expecting us to deal some of our extra picks and/or current players for help to build off last year's success. Instead, we kept all of them and even added more.

And that's great. More chances to find a diamond in the rough is always a good thing. It's just not what I was expecting.

You were evidently expecting lots of draft day deals on a day when NO ONE EVEN KNEW THE SALARY CAP YET.

There were basically two deals of any note the entire two days, and we were in on one of them, and we came out on the right side of it.

If this wasn't what you were expecting, then you were expecting the wrong shit.

Oh, and to say "we took a rebuilding approach" is just f***ing ludicrous.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

You were evidently expecting lots of draft day deals on a day when NO ONE EVEN KNEW THE SALARY CAP YET.

There were basically two deals of any note the entire two days, and we were in on one of them, and we came out on the right side of it.

If this wasn't what you were expecting, then you were expecting the wrong ****.

Oh, and to say "we took a rebuilding approach" is just ****ing ludicrous.

Looks like I wasn’t the only one who was expecting the Canes to deal their extra picks instead of adding more.

And denying that stockpiling prospects like we did today is an ideal situation for a rebuilding team is, to use your term, “f***ing ludicrous.” It’s exactly what rebuilding teams want to do. That’s a fact.

That doesn’t mean I think we’re rebuilding, or that they did anything wrong today, but it’s atypical to see a team that’s looking to take the next step (from bubble team to consistent playoff threat) stockpile picks and prospects like we did today.

 

[Roboturner913]

The New England Patriots have been doing that for almost two decades and they've never NOT been a contender in all that time.

The only limitation on it is how many roster spots you have available in the minors to make sure you're getting a good chance to evaluate everybody.

 

[Lempo]

legitimately, what is she trying to convey with these tweets? it's so strange.

I think she tries to break things, but she just breaks things.

 

[Lempo]

And talking about breaking things down,

someone do a chart for what players we got the extra picks that became extra extra picks, and who exactly did we get for Skinner?

 

[My Special Purpose]

Perhaps a potential trait of Dundon-financed teams...offload expensive vets about to get big raises who aren’t can’t-be-replaced types, back-fill with low-20s talent. It’s less expensive, and given that some statistics show drop-off in performance at age ... 26, was it? ... is not a completely insane idea.

Pay your Tom Brady-type mega-star and rotate talent around him. Hmm.

I'm not sure you can maintain the pace needed to constantly cycle through good players.

I have an idea. Maybe, in order to keep up the pace, you could trade down a few times and acquire extra picks to keep the pipeline full.

We killed the draft, and set up for the future, but basically did nothing to improve the current team and depending on who you ask, talks with our free agents (restricted or otherwise) aren't going well.

So we took a rebuilding approach to the draft after we made the ECF. Make of that what you will.

Or did we.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Looks like I wasn’t the only one who was expecting the Canes to deal their extra picks instead of adding more.

And denying that stockpiling prospects like we did today is an ideal situation for a rebuilding team is, to use your term, “****ing ludicrous.” It’s exactly what rebuilding teams want to do. That’s a fact.

That doesn’t mean I think we’re rebuilding, or that they did anything wrong today, but it’s atypical to see a team that’s looking to take the next step (from bubble team to consistent playoff threat) stockpile picks and prospects like we did today.

See, no, that's just called "building". I understand that you don't recognize what it looks like, because we've never actually done it before.

 

[Roboturner913]

I'm not sure you can maintain the pace needed to constantly cycle through good players.

Yeah, but we're no worse off in that regard than any other team. By giving yourself as many lottery tickets as possible, you're at least maximizing your chances of drafting well through playing the odds.

You can have crappy talent evaluation and still hit on 20% of your draft picks, so just make sure you have a **** ton of draft picks.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

See, no, that's just called "building". I understand that you don't recognize what it looks like, because we've never actually done it before.

I suppose a decade does constitute long enough to remove any semblance of the "re" portion.

 

[Lucky Lindy]

Love that I get to follow OHL again, with Suzuki, Rees and Murray.

 

[bleedgreen]

It seems mostly obvious, but watching good players like Skinner, Faulk, potentially Hamilton and McGinn be cast aside is going to take some getting some getting used from a fan perspective. Lots of potential turnover each year.

It assumes we will always have a stream of quality well developed prospects coming up and ready to push for spots. Which is what everyone wants and few accomplish.

We get good marks at the draft just like we got good marks for having a good defense for years before we were any good. The draft WAS good but its years away from paying off, and it'll be a good draft if three of them actually play in the NHL. It's a good day, and the next few weeks as always will be fun to watch.

It's kinda fun literally having no idea what our team will look like next year. If we make it to the playoffs consistently I dont think I'll want to feel that way generally but we're a total crap shoot for next year so why not?

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Athletic

View attachment 239593

OK, so in digging into this, I have found Some Amazing Shit. SaraCiv, if you're reading, this is a scoop for you.

Context for this graphic: this was Scott Wheeler's take on all the teams drafts in rounds 2-7. Wheeler is the Leafs beat writer for the Athletic and also covers the draft every year.

Here what his "Value #" means: "The total number of players the team selected who were within my top 100 and among the players I would have considered, or those who weren’t who could still provide value relative to where they were taken."

So basically, in rounds 2-7, most teams had 1 or 2 of these "value picks" according to Wheeler. The Canes had *eight*.

In his top 100, he had Suzuki at 16 (we took him at 28), Honka at 20 (83), Puistola at 22 (73), Rees at 44 (44), Fensore at 54 (90), Murray at 77 (183), and Tieksola at 81 (121).

Crazy coincidence, right?

Someone in the comments said "seems like you're actually working for Carolina's scouting department." Which, ha ha, LOL and stuff... except... um... maybe?

Here's the article from Wheeler earlier in the spring in which he goes into *great* detail about his methodologies:

Wheeler: An updated guide to scouting and evaluating NHL...

And here's a *very* interesting quote from that article:

"Three and a half years ago, a longtime hockey analytics blogger-turned-team employee emailed me with a question about how we can inform modern statistics in hockey with the eye test. He wanted to run a 'multivariate regression using independent variables (like, say, skating, which would be) rated by chosen talent evaluators for each player — I would also include a team variable to control for team effects. The dependent variable would be raw possession results.'
His goal was to determine how to prioritize each skill when evaluating prospects based strictly on viewings. In responding to the question, I began to build out the five skills I think matter most in today’s game in a quantifiable way."

You can be 100% assured from the matchups between Wheeler's projections and the Hurricanes' selections that the "longtime hockey analytics blogger-turned-team employee" was Tulsky, and that he was running his multivariate regression using either Wheeler's data directly, or his own collection of data based on Wheeler's principles.

Scott Wheeler directly influenced the 2019 Carolina Hurricanes draft. Which is absolutely fascinating.

 

[Lempo]

So not only we took their 1st pick, we also took the draft prowess that could've been theirs...

 

[bleedgreen]

I read a tweet somewhere after the draft that gave us high marks and mentioned we someone don’t talk about much who has long been known as a top evaluator. Dudley.

This was his first year full year for us. I’d suspect if we in fact “killed it” that he played no small role.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Honestly, I thought Carolina had a really good draft. I also think getting a first for buying out (or maybe playing) Marleau is pretty smart. They aren't going to be a cap team, so the risk is minimal.

Playing the waiting game and seeing how things unfold while stockpiling picks is a good move. With the cap being set at $81.5, you are going to have a lot of teams scrambling to clear space.

I'd particularly look at:

Vegas
Nashville
Arizona
San Jose

as top trade partners for salary dump forwards. You may even be able to get picks next year out of them.

 

[vorbis]

I read a tweet somewhere after the draft that gave us high marks and mentioned we someone don’t talk about much who has long been known as a top evaluator. Dudley.

This was his first year full year for us. I’d suspect if we in fact “killed it” that he played no small role.

Sara Civ actually asked Don Waddell about Dudley at his availability after the draft and Waddell was very clear in saying that Dudley's help is more on the pro side right now. he was quick to give kudos to Tony MacDonald and Darren Yorke instead. I was surprised because I felt like you, that Dudley was brought in to be the prospect guru.

 

[backwards motion]

Not news worthy, but you really don't want to let me go. All the existing Finns and you drafted 3 more?? I'll have to check my finances to think if I'm ready to move from Finland to Carolina.

 

[Drivebytrucker]

Trading picks to acquire top end talent is a risky proposition.

When you start depleting your farm system to go on a run, you risk becoming an old, expensive roster with nothing coming up pipes.

And then you have to rely on the draft and not alot of teams draft consistantly successfully.

This is where we were for 10 years.

It looks like we have team in place that has drafted well for 3-4 years. Hopefully this continues....

If you draft well, everything else takes care of itself

 

[Lempo]

Not news worthy, but you really don't want to let me go. All the existing Finns and you drafted 3 more?? I'll have to check my finances to think if I'm ready to move from Finland to Carolina.

Had you learned to play hockey they'd have drafted you and paid for your air fare.

 

[backwards motion]

Had you learned to play hockey they'd have drafted you and paid for your air fare.

Well I had a goal made by my father when I was young, I had a homemade ice made in the backfield as I was young, I played a lot of bond hockey when I was young. So because of my age now, I don't want to die at the first training session, so they'll have to do without me. That might be the only reason why middle aged man isn't in the organisation? I was really good too. I could score to an empty net, and could handle kids twice younger than my age.

Now I'm just trying not to die when games get too intense. Such is a way of a fan.

 

[emptyNedder]

In his top 100, he had Suzuki at 16 (we took him at 28), Honka at 20 (83), Puistola at 22 (73), Rees at 44 (44), Fensore at 54 (90), Murray at 77 (183), and Tieksola at 81 (121).

I understand Wheeler's rankings were not "The Athletic" rankings which were done by Pronman. However, I would have liked the Canes use those for at least one of picks 44 (N. Robertson or Fagemo instead of Rees), 83 (Cajkokiv instead of Honka), and 99 (Teply instead of Webber).

Don't get me wrong--I am impressed with the draft overall. However, I think one of the picks should have been for another boom-or-bust goal scorer ala Puistola.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I think it’s important to note here that if you were “expecting” the Canes to do anything specific, you shouldn’t be surprised they didn’t. This organization is hell bent on doing things differently. Nobody makes 12 damn draft picks. Canes do. Nobody pays $4 mil for a 1st. Canes do.

Expected the unexpected.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Not news worthy, but you really don't want to let me go. All the existing Finns and you drafted 3 more?? I'll have to check my finances to think if I'm ready to move from Finland to Carolina.

What will you do if we trade for Laine and/or Puljujarvi?

Trading picks to acquire top end talent is a risky proposition.

When you start depleting your farm system to go on a run, you risk becoming an old, expensive roster with nothing coming up pipes.

And then you have to rely on the draft and not alot of teams draft consistantly successfully.

This is where we were for 10 years.

It looks like we have team in place that has drafted well for 3-4 years. Hopefully this continues....

If you draft well, everything else takes care of itself

If I went back in time to Southington, CT and told a 13-year-old me that the Whalers and Patriots had become the models for how to run a franchise in their respective leagues, I'd seriously question my adult self's use of a time machine, but also be really, really surprised.

I understand Wheeler's rankings were not "The Athletic" rankings which were done by Pronman. However, I would have liked the Canes use those for at least one of picks 44 (N. Robertson or Fagemo instead of Rees), 83 (Cajkokiv instead of Honka), and 99 (Teply instead of Webber).

Don't get me wrong--I am impressed with the draft overall. However, I think one of the picks should have been for another boom-or-bust goal scorer ala Puistola.

As you might imagine, I'm disappointed we didn't take Nick Robertson. But what makes me most upset, is that I now have to follow his career with the Maple Leafs. That is borderline unforgivable mismanagement by the Canes. But I'm not second-guessing the hive-mind. Not for a long time. That Leafs jersey is going to look weird in my closet, however.

I think it’s important to note here that if you were “expecting” the Canes to do anything specific, you shouldn’t be surprised they didn’t. This organization is hell bent on doing things differently. Nobody makes 12 damn draft picks. Canes do. Nobody pays $4 mil for a 1st. Canes do.

Expected the unexpected.

And enjoy the ride.

 

[backwards motion]

What will you do if we trade for Laine and/or Puljujarvi?
.

Let's say, I'm a realistic. I'd go nuts. But doesn't matter. I already love the fanbase which is a big part of my enjoyment as a fan, don't really care for negativity. People, the fans, have been welcoming. So I do the same, I want to be liked, but for the reasons that people have been kind to me. And with Aho doing his things , even for Pulju, that's seemed by many as a bust, would do things! Laine would not be so cheap, but with good center like Aho, things would be done. Anyway, I will go nuts. Off-season is too long. I want me some hockey!

Still, no matter what. How long the off-season. I do like the players, but what really got to me is the fans. I will support the team and understand the fans. This team and fans are what hockey should be.

 

[bleedgreen]

I had a scary thought this morning. Imagine if Marleau accepts our offer and we pay him his full salary next year.

Wouldn’t that make him our big offensive addition for the off season?

Woof.