Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part V (Lottery 04/09 8PM EST)

[Lays]

If Zegras garners mixed reviews on here, then people really need to go back and take a second look at the kid.

There’s a reason he’s ahead of some of the so-called “preferred choices.”

He’s in contention for my 4th spot with Dach, I know it’s been stated many times but the NTDP team is insane this year. His passing is the best in this draft class and he’s cleaned up the turnovers. Another one to watch is Boldy, who’s at 8 for me right now. He’s made some serious strides over the past 2 months.

I’m also losing my liking for Cozens, as he’s fallen to 12 for me. The more I watch him the more I realize he doesn’t have creativity to his game to be a 1C and his shot release isn’t quick enough to be a major force in the NHL, his hands aren’t the best either. Cozens dominates because he’s hard to knock off the puck but I don’t see it translating well. It took me a while but recently I’ve been re-evaluating Cozens and I couldn’t decide what I really did like about him.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I am not of that crowd, I understand that they are professionals, and of course there are differences. I just think that passing on the best defenseman in the draft at 7 for the sake of taking a kid that your head coach scouted to BU would show a certain bias as opposed to a strictly analytical decision. I would love Trevor Zegras to be a Ranger, hypothetically speaking, but if he were chosen at 7 over Bowen Byram I simply cannot be convinced that it was a decision based solely off of the fact that they see him as BPA. I would not buy that. I have been extremely happy with our scouting department and the job they have done so far, but I just want to see the organization stay true to its word.

Wasn’t Zegras just 4th on McKenzie’s list ahead of Byram?

 

[Ola]

If you’re going to go with the first approach, then everyone outside of Hughes and Kakko is in the same boat. Because Turcotte, Cozens, etc. all have just as many question marks.

So if we want to put them in the same boat, that’s one thing. If we think there’s a difference there, I disagree.

I don't agree at all. These kids are hockey players just like the ones we are watching in the NHL. Its like discussing Zibanejad vs Barzal vs Stepan. They are not the same. People are allowed to be of any opinion they want, but the players are certainly different. Besides, objectively strong arguments can be made that they should have a certain specific order. Stepan should be the last of the three, IMO. Ziba vs Barzal? Well Ziba is playing darn strong at the moment, but at least long-term Barzal probably deserves the nod, right?

If some fan at nYRblueshirtfancornerzzz.com or even someone like Zipay or Kyperos or McQuire or the likes rank them in any other order -- why can't we agree or disagree with that?

I think the big difference is that many posters haven't seen these kids play.

As for being ahead of certain guys, he’s actually ahead of a guy like Turcotte on more than a few lists. He’s also ahead of some of the other names we’ve thrown around here quite frequently. That goes back to the whole concept that this board’s list is not necessarily the same as what we’re seeing abroad.

Which lists? These lists where totally clownish last season. I got jumped by someone like @ManUtdTobbe for questioning Wahlstrom's play away from the puck. That is lie pointing out that Chara is tall. I assume Tobbe had seen OW play -- I mean it had been possible to watch him everywhere for over a year. But just because you believe that you know everything, it doesn't mean that you have to know anything about hockey. As I understand it, these "lists" are often made by the same type of people who writes articles for those fan sites etc. People laugh at those articles, but think that the rankings are gospel?

Honest question, how many of the people making these lists have even watched hockey for a period over 5 years?

I also disagree on the consensus. While it’s not set in stone, there’s a reason you don’t see guys like Bobby Brink listed 10th, or a guy like Cozens listed 15th.

To me consensus has become one of those things that people don’t like when it tends to go against what they want. But there is some merit to it.

But isn't that exactly what we are seeing? I've seen Turcotte ranked outside the top 10 at several places. 15. 11. I've seen Alex Newhook be ranked very very high in several lists. Will Newhook go that high? I don't know, I haven't seen him. But I wouldn't bank on it just because I've seen many rank him very high. I thought I saw that Kravtsov was ranked 40th overall in many mid-season lists last season.

There is no way NHL teams have Turcotte that low for example. If I am wrong and he goes 15th, be my guest and ridicule me for the coming 10 years.

I am not saying that Turcotte -- for example -- certainly will be picked before Zegras. I could see arguments going both ways, although I certainly would prefer the former. But I wouldn't read anything into 9 of 10 lists having Zegras ahead of Turcotte. Not many lists had Kravtsov ahead of Wahlström last season either. Bouchard was so high on so many lists, and so forth. Bode Wilde was ranked a good round ahead of where he went on most lists, and so forth.

 

[Ola]

Wasn’t Zegras just 4th on McKenzie’s list ahead of Byram?

Yes, on Button's list.

Is he the next Pettersson? He has produced so much for the USNDP. He looks amazing in some sequences. Its so hard to tell. But my best bet is that he will become more of a Jordan Eberle type of performer in the NHL. I don't quite see that elite elite elite ability if you get what I mean. He isn't a top skater.

But on the other hand, he could today jump on to the ice no any PP in the NHL and distribute the puck well. He can both turn away PKers and buy himself time, and make those quick fast crisp passes to the right persons. On the right role on the right PP, points tend to pile up.

Zegras is a great young player, I am personally a little higher on a few other kids out there.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Yes, on Button's list.

Thanks, I haven’t been paying all that much attention to lists other than a quick glance when they come out, so they all just kind of run together for me

 

[Edge]

I don't agree at all. These kids are hockey players just like the ones we are watching in the NHL. Its like discussing Zibanejad vs Barzal vs Stepan. They are not the same. People are allowed to be of any opinion they want, but the players are certainly different, but at the same time, objectively strong arguments can be made that they should have a certain specific order. Stepan should be the last of the three, IMO. Ziba vs Barzal? Well Ziba is playing darn strong at the moment, but at least long-term Barzal probably deserves the nod, right?

If some fan at nYRblueshirtfancornerzzz.com or even someone like Zipay or Kyperos or McQuire or the likes rank them in any other order -- why can't we agree or disagree with that?

I think the big difference is that many posters haven't seen these kids play.

You're right, they are different. But that wasn't what I was questioning.

Right now, despite their differences, I don't think there's much difference in the overall product.


And you're 100 percent allowed to rank them in whatever order. And people are free to disagree, or point out that yours might be the minority opinion.

Which lists? These lists where totally clownish last season. I got jumped by someone like @ManUtdTobbe for questioning Wahlstrom's play away from the puck. That is lie pointing out that Chara is tall. I assume Tobbe had seen OW play -- I mean it had been possible to watch him everywhere for over a year. But just because you believe that you know everything, it doesn't mean that you have to know anything about hockey. As I understand it, these "lists" are often made by the same type of people who writes articles for those fan sites etc. People laugh at those articles, but think that the rankings are gospel?

Gospel no, but not rubbish either. There's many, many levels between those two concepts.

You keep point to Wahlstrom, but your argument overlooks the fact that many of those lists last year were typically more right than wrong. And that's probably what we have to consider.

Are they perfect, no? But they aren't gibberish either.

But isn't that exactly what we are seeing? I've seen Turcotte ranked outside the top 10 at several places.
15. 11. I've seen Alex Newhook be ranked very very high in several lists. I thought I saw that Kravtsov was ranked 40th overall in many mid-season lists last season.

There is no way NHL teams have him that low. If I am wrong, be my guest and ridicule me for the coming 10 years.

I am not saying that Turcotte -- for example -- certainly will be picked before Zegras. I could see arguments going both ways, although I certainly would prefer the former. But I wouldn't read anything into 9 of 10 lists having Zegras ahead of Turcotte. Not many lists had Kravtsov ahead of Wahlström last season either. Bouchard was so high on so many lists, and so forth. Bode Wilde was ranked a good round ahead of where he went on most lists, and so forth.

Turcotte is generally seen as being fair game anywhere from 3-10. There are outliers with him outside the top 10, and outliers with him ranked second.

But as you said, the argument isn't whether Turcotte could before him in the draft, he certainly could. The question is whether he is widely seen as the better player, or whether he's seen as being in a different tier. The answer to both is no, he generally isn't viewed to be in a different tier and the prevailing view is that he's part of a cluster of guys.

That's not arguing it's correct, so much as acknowledging that it is exists.

 

[Edge]

Yes, on Button's list.

Is he the next Pettersson? He has produced so much for the USNDP. He looks amazing in some sequences. Its so hard to tell. But my best bet is that he will become more of a Jordan Eberle type of performer in the NHL. I don't quite see that elite elite elite ability if you get what I mean. He isn't a top skater.

But on the other hand, he could today jump on to the ice no any PP in the NHL and distribute the puck well. He can both turn away PKers and buy himself time, and make those quick fast crisp passes to the right persons. On the right role on the right PP, points tend to pile up.

Zegras is a great young player, I am personally a little higher on a few other kids out there.

Zegras and Eberle don't play anything alike.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

He’s in contention for my 4th spot with Dach, I know it’s been stated many times but the NTDP team is insane this year. His passing is the best in this draft class and he’s cleaned up the turnovers. Another one to watch is Boldy, who’s at 8 for me right now. He’s made some serious strides over the past 2 months.

I’m also losing my liking for Cozens, as he’s fallen to 12 for me. The more I watch him the more I realize he doesn’t have creativity to his game to be a 1C and his shot release isn’t quick enough to be a major force in the NHL, his hands aren’t the best either. Cozens dominates because he’s hard to knock off the puck but I don’t see it translating well. It took me a while but recently I’ve been re-evaluating Cozens and I couldn’t decide what I really did like about him.

I'm starting to lean towards Dach over him. I've had the opposite reaction to yours with Cozens with Dach where the more I see him, I wonder why I don't like him as much as I should.

I think you undersell Cozens' hands though and that size/speed combo is going to play as he moves up. His skating is phenomenal for anyone, let alone someone who is basically a house already.

 

[Ola]

Gorton has consistently said that we will be taking BPA, so if for some insane reason Byram is available at 6/7 i fully expect us to take him. Otherwise, either Gorton lied or our scouting staff is severely out of touch. Byram is a top-5 talent.

That's just something you say to reporters, imagine how much you would have to explain if you tried to call it like it is.

Look at the PO teams, they want the player. They need a player out of each draft, even if that guy is just a 3rd-4th line energy winger. Their cap won't work if they leave a couple of drafts in a row without a player. A Tolvanen can be BPA, in the range from 15-30, and still be passed over many times because teams aren't sold on his ability to play in a depth role.

On the other side of the spectrum, some teams at the bottom might really need that game changer, and will take a flier on someone with potential over a safer option with lower potential -- even if the later is the BPA.

Nobody is selecting goalies high. Teams are always risking more with RDs than LDs, a suspect RD with potential is often a 1st round pick, even a mid/late 1st rounder, the LD has to be more solid to go in that range.

Everyone have always said that it was a mistake that we didn't go BPA when we took McIlrath (grit) or Jessiman (size), and its right. But fewer are saying that its a mistake when we go out of our way and try to get boom/bust kids with later picks, but if you go into a selection going out of your way to pick a certain player type its not BPA either.

 

[Ola]

Zegras and Eberle don't play anything alike.

I think they are very very similar, very crisp passing but not much else in terms of elite ability.

Who would you compare Zegras to?

 

[Edge]

I think they are very very similar, very crisp passing but not much else in terms of elite ability.

Who would you compare Zegras to?

Oh I disagree there. Zegras awareness and hockey sense are among the best in this class, as his passing and playmaking.

As for Eberle, he was already playing mostly RW at the same stage, tended to be focused more on goal scoring, didn't/doesn't play with the edge Zegras brings, wasn't as good on faceoffs, wasn't as good defensively at the same stage, didn't loop around looking for the pass like Zegras does, or really do many of the same things stylistically.

I'm just not seeing it, except for maybe the frame.

Some people have compared Zegras to Barzal at the same point, but personally I think he reminds me stylistically of Nieuwendyk.

 

[Lays]

Oh I disagree there. Zegras awareness and hockey sense are among the best in this class, as his passing and playmaking.

As for Eberle, he was already playing mostly RW at the same stage, tended to be focused more on goal scoring, didn't/doesn't play with the edge Zegras brings, wasn't as good on faceoffs, wasn't as good defensively at the same stage, didn't loop around looking for the pass like Zegras does, or really do many of the same things stylistically.

I'm just not seeing it, except for maybe the frame.

Some people have compared Zegras to Barzal at the same point, but personally I think he reminds me stylistically of Nieuwendyk.

Agreed, Zegras legit plays nothing like Eberle

 

[Ola]

Agreed, Zegras legit plays nothing like Eberle

Plays?? Comparisons never aim to describe how a kid PLAYS in juniors lol. Ty Ronning would be compared to Maurice Richard. In the NHL, I think Zegras will have the same impact as Eberle has.

Zegras is of course a much better player in juniors than Eberle is in the NHL, but Zegras will not have much time and space in the NHL.

I think you are in for an extreme disappointment if you expect Zegras to have the same impact in the NHL as Joe Nieuwendyk had... JMHO.

Barzal is another — insane — comparison. One is a super dynamic skater, the other is an upright skating kid who can stickhandle in a phonebooth, but not even remotely cover the ice in the same way.

 

[Lays]

I'm starting to lean towards Dach over him. I've had the opposite reaction to yours with Cozens with Dach where the more I see him, I wonder why I don't like him as much as I should.

I think you undersell Cozens' hands though and that size/speed combo is going to play as he moves up. His skating is phenomenal for anyone, let alone someone who is basically a house already.

Agreed with his skating but I think he benefits too much from his skating+size. I think in the NHL he’ll have difficulty skating around in circles like he usually does, his hands in tight don’t impress me similar to Chytil where when they have room their hands look good but when pressured they can cough up turnovers. Cozens is also very inconsistent with his effort, sometimes he looks like Zach Hyman on the forecheck but most of the time he’s invisible for long periods of time. I just don’t think his IQ is there to be a true 1C, more like a 2C or a winger but he has a decent enough floor to not completely bust

 

[Lays]

Plays?? Comparisons never aim to describe how a kid PLAYS in juniors lol. Ty Ronning would be compared to Maurice Richard. In the NHL, I think Zegras will have the same impact as Eberle has.

Zegras is of course a much better player in juniors than Eberle is in the NHL, but Zegras will not have much time and space in the NHL.

I think you are in for an extreme disappointment if you expect Zegras to have the same impact in the NHL as Joe Nieuwendyk had... JMHO.

Comparisons are always made by style of play, no one compares a prospects impact to an NHLers impact. Zegras doesn’t need time and space to create plays either

 

[Ola]

Comparisons are always made by style of play, no one compares a prospects impact to an NHLers impact. Zegras doesn’t need time and space to create plays either

How do you mean ‘style of play’? These kids are often so dominating at their level that there isn’t even anyone to compare them too.

Zegras has 76 pts in 53 games, he is a totally dominating center that has the puck all the time, for the USNDP.

Just because of that you don’t compare him to Wayne Gretzky. You give an impression of what type of player the kid might become in the NHL.

 

[Edge]

Plays?? Comparisons never aim to describe how a kid PLAYS in juniors lol. Ty Ronning would be compared to Maurice Richard. In the NHL, I think Zegras will have the same impact as Eberle has.

Zegras is of course a much better player in juniors than Eberle is in the NHL, but Zegras will not have much time and space in the NHL.

I think you are in for an extreme disappointment if you expect Zegras to have the same impact in the NHL as Joe Nieuwendyk had... JMHO.

Barzal is another — insane — comparison. One is a super dynamic skater, the other is an upright skating kid who can stickhandle in a phonebooth, but not even remotely cover the ice in the same way.

Forget projections and comparisons, from a style standpoint Zegras plays nothing like Eberle.

That comparison just doesn’t fit. Period.

 

[Lays]

How do you mean ‘style of play’? These kids are often so dominating at their level that there isn’t even anyone to compare them too.

Zegras has 76 pts in 53 games, he is a totally dominating center that has the puck all the time, for the USNDP.

Just because of that you don’t compare him to Wayne Gretzky. You give an impression of what type of player the kid might become in the NHL.

Comparisons are made all the time for draft eligibles in play style, not “impact level” like I’ve been trying to say. No one compares “impact level” which is why you have people confused with comparing Zegras to Eberle by saying Zegras will have the same impact level as Eberle. Comparisons of play styles aren’t a new thing. You compared Nikolayev and Krebs to Kerfoot yesterday, another incorrect comparison

 

[duhmetreE]

I can't wait to see the screeeeeeeching and reeeeeeeeee'ing, when we take Knight in the late first.

 

[Ola]

Comparisons are made all the time for draft eligibles in play style, not “impact level” like I’ve been trying to say. No one compares “impact level” which is why you have people confused with comparing Zegras to Eberle by saying Zegras will have the same impact level as Eberle. Comparisons of play styles aren’t a new thing. You compared Nikolayev and Krebs to Kerfoot yesterday, another incorrect comparison

Yeah, I get what you mean, but it’s just not true. Not the way you put it. Maybe you and Edge haven’t seen that much junior hockey, but so many of these kids are so much more dominant in juniors than names tossed around them. AINEC.

Sometimes you play around with stating that a kid is comparable to another player in terms of style only and so forth, sometimes you compare potential impact more directly.

But even when you just compare kids to NHL players you don’t literary do it by comparing what you see at the junior level and the player in the NHL.

A kid like Michae St Croix scores 1.5 PPG one season in the WHL. Ty Ronning had 60 goals in 70 games.

Which style does you think Ty Ronning plays when he scores 60 goals in 70 games? Of course a totally dominating style offensively. Have you ever seen someone like Ty Ronning compared to a prime Maurice Richard. I’ve never seen Michael St Croix compared to a 87’ Steve Yzerman. Parenteau has been mentioned regarding Ty Ronning. Facts are that Ronning in the WHL when he scored 60 in 70 played NOTHING like PAP did in the NHL.

Edge- Honest question — have you seen Zegras play any game for the US U18 team (ie against other nations)? He has done great, but he disappears a lot more from games, especially when the games get thighter.

 

[Lays]

Yeah, I get what you mean, but it’s just not true. Not the way you put it. Maybe you and Edge haven’t seen that much junior hockey, but so many of these kids are so much more dominant in juniors than names tossed around them. AINEC.

Sometimes you play around with stating that a kid is comparable to another player in terms of style only and so forth, sometimes you compare potential impact more directly.

But even when you just compare kids to NHL players you don’t literary do it by comparing what you see at the junior level and the player in the NHL.

A kid like Michae St Croix scores 1.5 PPG one season in the WHL. Ty Ronning had 60 goals in 70 games.

Which style does you think Ty Ronning plays when he scores 60 goals in 70 games? Of course a totally dominating style offensively. Have you ever seen someone like Ty Ronning compared to a prime Maurice Richard. I’ve never seen Michael St Croix compared to a 87’ Steve Yzerman. Parenteau has been mentioned regarding Ty Ronning. Facts are that Ronning in the WHL when he scored 60 in 70 played NOTHING like PAP did in the NHL.

Edge- Honest question — have you seen Zegras play any game for the US U18 team (ie against other nations)? He has done great, but he disappears a lot more from games, especially when the games get thighter.

I’ve seen plenty of junior hockey and I’ve watched nearly every NTDP game this season

When Ty Ronning was lighting it up last year everyone compared his playstyle to a worse Gallagher/Callahan which is true? How are you questioning if I watch these prospects when your descriptions and comparisons are so out of touch with the player?

 

[Edge]

Yeah, I get what you mean, but it’s just not true. Not the way you put it. Maybe you and Edge haven’t seen that much junior hockey, but so many of these kids are so much more dominant in juniors than names tossed around them. AINEC.

Sometimes you play around with stating that a kid is comparable to another player in terms of style only and so forth, sometimes you compare potential impact more directly.

But even when you just compare kids to NHL players you don’t literary do it by comparing what you see at the junior level and the player in the NHL.

A kid like Michae St Croix scores 1.5 PPG one season in the WHL. Ty Ronning had 60 goals in 70 games.

Which style does you think Ty Ronning plays when he scores 60 goals in 70 games? Of course a totally dominating style offensively. Have you ever seen someone like Ty Ronning compared to a prime Maurice Richard. I’ve never seen Michael St Croix compared to a 87’ Steve Yzerman. Parenteau has been mentioned regarding Ty Ronning. Facts are that Ronning in the WHL when he scored 60 in 70 played NOTHING like PAP did in the NHL.

Edge- Honest question — have you seen Zegras play any game for the US U18 team (ie against other nations)? He has done great, but he disappears a lot more from games, especially when the games get thighter.

Yes, I have and I’ve come away very impressed with his ability and the potential for his game to translate to the pro level.

And three points of clarification:

1. Any players I reference are from a style standpoint, not from a projection standpoint.

2. By the time this draft will role around, I’m on pace to have seen close to 1000 non-NHL games this season. That’s down slightly from last year.

3. Being as I’m not a scout, I also work to incorporate views from scouts and other personnel I’m friendly with. That’s why there’s sometimes a line I draw between what I’m seeing, and what others are seeing. Case in point being Podkolzin. I don’t have him at three, but thus far most scouts and observers do.

 

[Ola]

I’ve seen plenty of junior hockey and I’ve watched nearly every NTDP game this season

When Ty Ronning was lighting it up last year everyone compared his playstyle to a worse Gallagher/Callahan which is true? How are you questioning if I watch these prospects when your descriptions and comparisons are so out of touch with the player?

That is exactly my point, Ronning in his final year in the WHL played — nothing — like Callahan ever did in the NHL. Ronning was involved offensively on a shift by shift basis, his entire team always tried to find him and he was constantly finishing plays when he was on the ice. Always around the puck. Always creating chances. Callahan has never scored 30 in 82, Ronning had 60 in 70.

If you compare Ronning to Callahan or Gallagher you compare Ronning to the style he might hopefully play in the NHL best case scenario. It’s what you do, it’s a mix.

It’s pretty ridiculous, Eberle is scoring 40-50 pts in 80 games in the NHL and Zegras is scoring almost 1.5 PPG in juniors. If you or Edge had seen much junior hockey this shouldn’t be a question for you, of course Zegras dominating against kids don’t play the same style as Eberle does in the NHL.

In the NHL however, I think that is the type of contributor you might get in the NHL. JMHO.

 

[Lays]

That is exactly my point, Ronning in his final year in the WHL played — nothing — like Callahan ever did in the NHL. Ronning was involved offensively on a shift by shift basis, his entire team always tried to find him and he was constantly finishing plays when he was on the ice. Always around the puck. Always creating chances. Callahan has never scored 30 in 82, Ronning had 60 in 70.

If you compare Ronning to Callahan or Gallagher you compare Ronning to the style he might hopefully play in the NHL best case scenario. It’s what you do, it’s a mix.

It’s pretty ridiculous, Eberle is scoring 40-50 pts in 80 games in the NHL and Zegras is scoring almost 1.5 PPG in juniors. If you or Edge had seen much junior hockey this shouldn’t be a question for you, of course Zegras dominating against kids don’t play the same style as Eberle does in the NHL.

In the NHL however, I think that is the type of contributor you might get in the NHL. JMHO.

It’s projecting play styles based on their tools

Ronning didn’t play like Cally or Gallagher but some of his tendencies and upside projected him to be a worse Cally or Gallagher at the NHL level. This isn’t exactly new, it’s ALWAYS been like this. I don’t know why you keep assuming I don’t watch junior hockey

 

[Ola]

Yes, I have and I’ve come away very impressed with his ability and the potential for his game to translate to the pro level.

And three points of clarification:

1. Any players I reference are from a style standpoint, not from a projection standpoint.

2. By the time this draft will role around, I’m on pace to have seen close to 1000 non-NHL games this season. That’s down slightly from last year.

3. Being as I’m not a scout, I also work to incorporate views from scouts and other personnel I’m friendly with. That’s why there’s sometimes a line I draw between what I’m seeing, and what others are seeing. Case in point being Podkolzin. I don’t have him at three, but thus far most scouts and observers do.

That is nothing, I am watching 1,000,000 non NHL games per season and 31 GMs call me at least 10 times per day each.

Slight down from last year when all AHL GMs called me for advice too.

It’s no problem. The hockey season is 200 days. 1,000,000 nhl games take less than 200 days x 24 hours to watch, you are lazy only watching 5 non NHL games per day.