Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part III

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I don't know. Getting a #5-7 and Chytil is a decent package.

Would you trade Chytil and our pick for Turcotte?
No. I know what Chytil is. I'd rather keep him and the pick. The Rangers probably can get Turcotte 5-7 too. But I'm not speculating anymore until the end of the season, and I know what pick they have. Teams with top picks have gotten more protective of them.
 
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The combine (unfortunately) weighs heavily on their decisions. A whole year of scouting and analyzing can be thrown out the window after a bad interview or poor showing at the exercises.

Arizona took Hayton partly because he smoked the combine. Norris went higher because of his. The physical aspect gets overanalyzed because half these kids haven’t stopped growing or eat a proper diet (even though they are told to).

Always think back to Mike Mamula — the BC linebacker who crushed the combine and became a top pick because of it. Warren Sapp was passed over.
 
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Maybe, it’s me and I don’t know anymore, but from my viewpoint, it would appear that Byram, Cozens and Turcotte look like the obvious Ranger picks. Newhook might also, just because they’ve watch him next to Riley Hughes. Then again, who knows.
 
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The combine (unfortunately) weighs heavily on their decisions. A whole year of scouting and analyzing can be thrown out the window after a bad interview or poor showing at the exercises.

Arizona took Hayton partly because he smoked the combine. Norris went higher because of his. The physical aspect gets overanalyzed because half these kids haven’t stopped growing or eat a proper diet (even though they are told to).

Always think back to Mike Mamula — the BC linebacker who crushed the combine and became a top pick because of it. Warren Sapp was passed over.
You make a good point, but the Combine also gives a glimpse into a kid's character. Hayton, for example, was in the OHL final until the week before the combine, was exhausted and banged up, but still managed to perform well. That says more about him than his actual results.
 
watched a bunch of videos. My center rankings (just for fun)

Hughes - Hughes is Hughes
Cozens - bull in China shop type of center, super competitive from what I can tell which the Rangers love. He really drives the play out there.
Turcotte - has epic speed, Rangers will love that but he doesn't have a high level of compete. Has top center potential but with some potential pitfalls.
Krebs - he looks like he'll be a solid 2nd line center with great vision, have him higher than Newhook because he feels like a sure thing just with a lower ceiling
Newhook - he's like a slower version of Turcotte. And by slower I mean by only a bit. ;) He has the upper talent upside.
Suzuki - decent package. He's not as fast as Newhook but his defense is better. Looks like he can think at NHL speed.
Zegras - just seems very mediocre, does a lot of things well but none at a high level. Probably a 2nd or 3rd line center (aka top 9). He is young though so he may have one of those development spurts that is hard to see when you armchair/youtube scout someone.
Dach - i really don't like Dach. he's slow. thinks slow. I think he's just a product of playing against lower competition. I have a hard time seeing him succeed at NHL speeds. Maybe he just has me totally fooled. Decent passer. He's big though so maybe he can be a low energy 4th liner?
A lot of these descriptions are off-mainly Dach being a slow thinker (and being slow) and Turcotte not having a high compete level. Newhook and Turcotte aren’t similar either and Newhook is faster
 
watched a bunch of videos. My center rankings (just for fun)

Hughes - Hughes is Hughes
Cozens - bull in China shop type of center, super competitive from what I can tell which the Rangers love. He really drives the play out there.
Turcotte - has epic speed, Rangers will love that but he doesn't have a high level of compete. Has top center potential but with some potential pitfalls.
Krebs - he looks like he'll be a solid 2nd line center with great vision, have him higher than Newhook because he feels like a sure thing just with a lower ceiling
Newhook - he's like a slower version of Turcotte. And by slower I mean by only a bit. ;) He has the upper talent upside.
Suzuki - decent package. He's not as fast as Newhook but his defense is better. Looks like he can think at NHL speed.
Zegras - just seems very mediocre, does a lot of things well but none at a high level. Probably a 2nd or 3rd line center (aka top 9). He is young though so he may have one of those development spurts that is hard to see when you armchair/youtube scout someone.
Dach - i really don't like Dach. he's slow. thinks slow. I think he's just a product of playing against lower competition. I have a hard time seeing him succeed at NHL speeds. Maybe he just has me totally fooled. Decent passer. He's big though so maybe he can be a low energy 4th liner?

newhook and the word slower shouldnt be used together.

not so sure on your take. newhook is fast. flat out fast. slower than turcotte ? dont agree. at all.

kid has blinding feet.

and hes a true centerman.
 
A few thoughts:
  • As the draft gets closer, and people start getting more critical of certain prospects, don't be too surprised if people start referencing Tyson Jost when discussing where they think Newhook goes.
  • If Turcotte has indeed eclipsed the 6'0 mark, I'll almost put money on him suddenly finding himself higher on some lists.
  • Dach will continue to be a very divisive prospect.
  • Zegras is going to be the kid who is easy to overlook because he doesn't leap off the page, especially when compared to guys like Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, etc.
  • Cozens and Dach are a lot closer than many people realize.
 
Maybe, it’s me and I don’t know anymore, but from my viewpoint, it would appear that Byram, Cozens and Turcotte look like the obvious Ranger picks. Newhook might also, just because they’ve watch him next to Riley Hughes. Then again, who knows.

I'd be happy with any of those guys really.

The question for the Rangers is always the wildcard.

If there's one thing I've noticed over the years is that it's really difficult to figure out the Rangers mystery man. Usually I can determine 3-5 guys high on their list, but there's usually a wildcard in there that's harder to predict. Last year, the Rangers loved the U.S. kids, but Kravtsov was a bit of a wildcard.

In 2010, they loved Fowler and a few others, but McIlrath was the wildcard.

Similar situations in 2011 and 2009, though in those cases one of the names I knew they liked turned out to be the guy they went with.

But they've been one of the more difficult teams to flesh out over the last 10 years or so.
 
cozens is the guy i think can be a dominant pro. i mean a difference maker type player.

his size, his skating and his shot all with that high revving motor are an enticing package. he can play the middle or move out to the edge.

if he plays the wall, i see the scoring upside there to be a 20-30 goal guy. hes a horse with that power forward type skill set. his wheels are what sets him apart. edge work and hips are fluid." fast feet" hes not only fast but hes quick. for a big kid, quickness is sometimes lacking. not here. hes another one who's faster with the puck on his stick.

as a pivot, i see top line potential. hes custom built for the middle. creative and physical. kid finishes his checks and creates space with that big body. hes not the most creative set up guy in the draft but he can drive the play and thinks the game both ways.

hes clearly my top overall target after hughes and kakko are off the board.

give me cozens and kaliyev

or

byram and newhook

and im good.
 
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Very legit shot when you look at strength of schedules the rest of the way at the 5th overall finish.

Edmonton Chicago Vancouver Anaheim all with considerably easier schedules than ours and we haven’t been a very good road team. 5th overall and were going to get an impact player as long as we don’t do something stupid (which is very possible)
 
I’m really starting to lean towards Byram if we don’t get one of Hughes KK Cozens Dach or Turcotte
 
I'd be happy with any of those guys really.

The question for the Rangers is always the wildcard.

If there's one thing I've noticed over the years is that it's really difficult to figure out the Rangers mystery man. Usually I can determine 3-5 guys high on their list, but there's usually a wildcard in there that's harder to predict. Last year, the Rangers loved the U.S. kids, but Kravtsov was a bit of a wildcard.

In 2010, they loved Fowler and a few others, but McIlrath was the wildcard.

Similar situations in 2011 and 2009, though in those cases one of the names I knew they liked turned out to be the guy they went with.

But they've been one of the more difficult teams to flesh out over the last 10 years or so.
Idk what it is but Moritz Seider SCREAMS “unorthodox Rangers pick” to me.
 
I’m really starting to lean towards Byram if we don’t get one of Hughes KK Cozens Dach or Turcotte

It's been growing on me for a while, and I love the centers available in this draft.

I know the whole LHD thing, it's been brought up a hundred times and I've given my response. But man, I can't deny that that the potential of Byram and Miller on defense is enticing.

And Byram just keeps getting better and taking it up a notch. Not dependent on the special teams for points, scoring in clutch situations, playing with an edge, covering his defensive responsibilities, and he's half a year younger than some of the other top prospects.

Not going to lie, it's getting hard for me to keep him in that fifth slot.

I also can't help but think that if all things are equal, the Rangers don't end up taking a defenseman or wing over a center.

I know this board wants more centers, but I just don't know if that's a potential tie-breaker for the Rangers.
 
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Idk what it is but Moritz Seider SCREAMS “unorthodox Rangers pick” to me.

The reality is that anyone in most compiled top 15 or top 20 lists will be in play.

I know we get into commentary about reaching and going off the map, but the truth is that there is no map.

There's a rough sketch, with approximations, and a whole lot of opinion.

It's why the final draft order differs so greatly from what people read, especially compared to other sports.

The lists aren't written on stone tablets.
 
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The reality is that anyone in most compiled top 15 or top 20 lists will be in play.

I know we get into commentary about reaching and going off the map, but the truth is that there is no map.

There's a rough sketch, with approximations, and a whole lot of opinion.

It's why the final draft order differs so greatly from what people read, especially compared to other sports.

The lists aren't written on stone tablets.
The closest ‘list’ that’s made public is usually McKenzie’s when he polls some scouts, and even then it’s a list of averages and with the draft it only takes one team to be higher on a kid and it throws everything off. Plus McKenzie’s list usually closer to draft day and there’s already been a million lists that have been forming strong opinions on placement in the months before it
 
You know where I stand. I have Byram third and would love for him to be the Rangers choice.

It's hard for me not to bump Byram. He just keeps getting better and better.

He's arguably my favorite North American draft-eligible defensive prospect since Seth Jones, maybe even Drew Doughty. And that list includes a number of guys I really liked.
 
The closest ‘list’ that’s made public is usually McKenzie’s when he polls some scouts, and even then it’s a list of averages and with the draft it only takes one team to be higher on a kid and it throws everything off. Plus McKenzie’s list usually closer to draft day and there’s already been a million lists that have been forming strong opinions on placement in the months before it

And McKenzie learned a long time ago the dangers of trying to get too specific or piece things together.

That's why he polls and rarely gets too stunned, or worked-up, about what he's witnessing.
 
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Steve's comment about the combine made me go look at some numbers over the years, and how the Rangers picks fared:

Brady Skjei was one of if not the best in the leg strength categories in his year. Nils Lundqvist and K Andre Miller were both also at the top of their class last year in the leg strength categories.

All in all when it comes to defenseman they look at lower body strength and when it comes to forwards we've drafted some of the top wingspan, VO2 max per body weight, hand strength and bench press prospects.

I'll tell you though there's a lot of forgettable names in the top tens of all these lists over the years. These tests are not the be-all end-all but just a little part of the puzzle sometimes it makes a difference sometimes it doesn't, I'm guessing what happens on the ice is the ultimate Factor.
 
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Steve's comment about the combine made me go look at some numbers over the years, and how the Rangers picks fared:

Brady Skjei was one of if not the best in the leg strength categories in his year. Nils Lundqvist and K Andre Miller were both also at the top of their class last year in the leg strength categories.

All in all when it comes to defenseman they look at lower body strength and when it comes to forwards we've drafted some of the top wingspan, VO2 max per body weight, hand strength and bench press prospects.

I'll tell you though there's a lot of forgettable names in the top tens of all these lists over the years. These tests are not the be-all end-all but just a little part of the puzzle sometimes it makes a difference sometimes it doesn't, I'm guessing what happens on the ice is the ultimate Factor.

You're right that it isn't the be all end all, but there are a bunch of things that do carry over onto the ice.

I love the force plate stuff and VO2 max is semi important because a players performance in it is to an extent, genetic. But a guy shouldn't hop from the 3rd round to the 1st round because he crushed the combine, this isn't the NFL.

OTOH, unless a player is injured or played late into the season, they have no excuse not to perform well. It's like having the answers to a test before even taking it. You know whats coming, if you perform poorly that says a ton about your mindset.
 
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