Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part II

[Blue Blooded]

For those eyeing the numbers, at the age of 17, the difference between Kravtsov and Podkolzin in the MHL (at this point) essentially comes down to Podkolzin's linemates burying one more chance from him and/or one more shot getting through.

They're born on opposite sides on the calendar so it's hard to make a straight season-to-season comparison (I'd generally lean towards comparing their draft seasons).

But if we compare Podkolzin's current season to Kravtsov's D-1 season:

Kravtsov: 42 Pts in 46 GP (0.91 PPG) in the MHL, 4 Pts in 6 GP in the VHL (0.67 PPG), 1 Pt in 9 GP (0.11 PPG) in the KHL (of which 6 were playoff games)
Podkolzin: 7 Pts in 10 GP (0.70 PPG) in the MHL, 1 Pt in 7 GP in the VHL (0.14 PPG), 0 Pts in 1 GP (0.00 PPG) in the KHL

While it's still early as I said and Podkolzin's sample is still small, he currently tracks well behind Kravtsov's D-1 season (six months younger than Podkolzin) in terms of production.

A legit superstar like Kucherov (born in June like Podkolzin) put up 1.41 PPG in the MHL in his draft year. Kuznetsov (born in late May, close to Podkolzin) put up 1.73 PPG. Gusev (born in July) put up 1.59 PPG.

Guryanov (born in the same part of the year as Podkolzin) put up 29 Pts (18 goals) in 27 GP (1.07 PPG) in the MHL in his draft year, he went 12 OA.

People talk about Lias having a limited offensive upside, which I disagree with, and he's scored a tonne at every level. With the numbers he is putting up Podkolzin's upside looks like a Carl Hagelin (great overall impact, low-ish scoring) - is that who you want to come away with from a top pick?

Now he might take a big step forward in development and make me look silly here, but that's not a risk I'm willing to take with such a high pick. Would you have dared to pick Chytil with the 7th OA? And Chytil is born even later in the year and put up better league-adjusted numbers than Podkolzin.

 

[Edge]

They're born on opposite sides on the calendar so it's hard to make a straight season-to-season comparison (I'd generally lean towards comparing their draft seasons).

But if we compare Podkolzin's current season to Kravtsov's D-1 season:

Kravtsov: 42 Pts in 46 GP (0.91 PPG) in the MHL, 4 Pts in 6 GP in the VHL (0.67 PPG), 1 Pt in 9 GP (0.11 PPG) in the KHL (of which 6 were playoff games)
Podkolzin: 7 Pts in 10 GP (0.70 PPG) in the MHL, 1 Pt in 7 GP in the VHL (0.14 PPG), 0 Pts in 1 GP (0.00 PPG) in the KHL

While it's still early as I said and Podkolzin's sample is still small, he currently tracks well behind Kravtsov's D-1 season (six months younger than Podkolzin) in terms of production.

A legit superstar like Kucherov (born in June like Podkolzin) put up 1.41 PPG in the MHL in his draft year. Kuznetsov (born in late May, close to Podkolzin) put up 1.73 PPG. Gusev (born in July) put up 1.59 PPG.

Guryanov (born in the same part of the year as Podkolzin) put up 29 Pts (18 goals) in 27 GP (1.07 PPG) in the MHL in his draft year, he went 12 OA.

People talk about Lias having a limited offensive upside, which I disagree with, and he's scored a tonne at every level. With the numbers he is putting up Podkolzin's upside looks like a Carl Hagelin (great overall impact, low-ish scoring) - is that who you want to come away with from a top pick?

Now he might take a big step forward in development and make me look silly here, but that's not a risk I'm willing to take with such a high pick. Would you have dared to pick Chytil with the 7th OA? And Chytil is born even later in the year and put up better league-adjusted numbers than Podkolzin.

I'm a little more hesitant to go solely based off the the D-1 season, mainly because of the age gap you mentioned. That's a good 7 months, which is huge. For me, on a straight MHL basis, factoring in age, there's really not a heck of a whole lot separating them in terms of production. Granted it's a relatively small sample size, but it comes down to about a point.

But beyond that, because there are so many factors at work, I think it also speaks to the importance of seeing prospects as opposed to just going off the stats. The latter doesn't necessarily show useage, or linemates, or supporting cast, etc.

But no, right now I'd say Podkolzin's upside is much closer to some of the other names you mentioned than a Carl Hagelin. But ask me again in 5 months and I might feel differently. There is a lot of hockey left, and I've had guys slip out of my top 10 completely and guys bull their way in. So anything is possible.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I'm a little more hesitant to go solely based off the the D-1 season, mainly because of the age gap you mentioned. That's a good 7 months, which is huge. For me, on a straight MHL basis, factoring in age, there's really not a heck of a whole lot separating them in terms of production. Granted it's a relatively small sample size, but it comes down to about a point.

But beyond that, because there are so many factors at work, I think it also speaks to the importance of seeing prospects as opposed to just going off the stats. The latter doesn't necessarily show useage, or linemates, or supporting cast, etc.

But no, right now I'd say Podkolzin's upside is much closer to some of the other names you mentioned than a Carl Hagelin. But ask me again in 5 months and I might feel differently. There is a lot of hockey left, and I've had guys slip out of my top 10 completely and guys bull their way in. So anything is possible.

With Hagelin I was speaking strictly from his current numbers. Hagelin is an August guy and put up 43 Pts in 45 GP in SuperElit in his draft season (05-06, we picked him in his 2nd year of eligibility), which rates extremely closely to 0.7 PPG in the MHL. He is also a guy who you noticed a lot out there even when he didn't put up points and really did drive the play (i.e. the best 40-point player you will ever find at his peak).

Re: the second paragraph - some of that is easily checked though. He is 6th on his MHL team in PPG so he isn't exactly dragging along a terrible offence.

But I fully agree that it could look completely different in 5 months, there is a lot of hockey left to be played.

 

[True Blue]

I'm reaching the point where I can't choose between Podkolzin and Dorofeyev.

Really? You must really love Dorofeyev. I like him as well, but see him as outside the top-15.

 

[offdacrossbar]

assuming the top 3 are out of reach and assuming we have multiple picks from which to work and also assuming we end up with 2 picks in the top 12

these are my top 6 targets for 2019 draft.


cozens
broberg
boldy

byram
kalyev
lavoie

i would take 1 in the first group and 1 in the second group and be very happy.

 

[True Blue]

assuming the top 3 are out of reach and assuming we have multiple picks from which to work and also assuming we end up with 2 picks in the top 12

these are my top 6 targets for 2019 draft.


cozens
broberg
boldy

byram
kalyev
lavoie

i would take 1 in the first group and 1 in the second group and be very happy.

More and more, I am thinking Byram is the top choice for me, presuming that Hughes and Kakko go 1 & 2. Thinking that they need to land in the top 5 to get him. Which probably puts Dach & Cozens out of reach with their next pick. Boldy, I would love, but thinking he is top 10 as well. What I do not see happening is the Rangers winding up with two top 10 picks, and that is even with multiple picks to deal with.

Lavoie scares me a bit. The reports of having the tools but not always a tool box to carry them, makes me shy away.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

assuming the top 3 are out of reach and assuming we have multiple picks from which to work and also assuming we end up with 2 picks in the top 12

these are my top 6 targets for 2019 draft.


cozens
broberg
boldy

byram
kalyev
lavoie

i would take 1 in the first group and 1 in the second group and be very happy.

Two picks in the top 12 is a lofty dream

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Anyone else think Kaliyev drops into the bottom 3rd of the 1st round?

1 dimensional game is 1 dimensional, even if its a heck of a dimension.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Anyone else think Kaliyev drops into the bottom 3rd of the 1st round?

1 dimensional game is 1 dimensional, even if its a heck of a dimension.

I think that specific dimension is what everybody (including GMs) drool over to the point where they convince themselves that the rest of those kind of guys will round out their games eventually, but how often do they? I feel like there’s far more Christian Thomas’ and Jeremy Morin’s than there are Laine’s and Tarasenko’s, so to end a small rant, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him anywhere from 5 to 25

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think that specific dimension is what everybody (including GMs) drool over to the point where they convince themselves that the rest of those kind of guys will round out their games eventually, but how often do they? I feel like there’s far more Christian Thomas’ and Jeremy Morin’s than there are Laine’s and Tarasenko’s, so to end a small rant, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him anywhere from 5 to 25

5 would be insane. I'd love that in the case that we don't pick top 5 since it'd kick someone down to us.

I'd be thrilled to snag him later in the 1st though. As you said, that specific dimension is highly sought after and at that point, it's a risk thats more than worth taking.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

5 would be insane. I'd love that in the case that we don't pick top 5 since it'd kick someone down to us.

I'd be thrilled to snag him later in the 1st though. As you said, that specific dimension is highly sought after and at that point, it's a risk thats more than worth taking.

Yeah, I wouldn’t mind taking the swing that late, but as started to say lately, I think Caulfield will end up being the better of two

 

[True Blue]

I think that specific dimension is what everybody (including GMs) drool over to the point where they convince themselves that the rest of those kind of guys will round out their games eventually, but how often do they? I feel like there’s far more Christian Thomas’ and Jeremy Morin’s than there are Laine’s and Tarasenko’s, so to end a small rant, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him anywhere from 5 to 25

He is another player, that I would shy far away from.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Anyone else think Kaliyev drops into the bottom 3rd of the 1st round?

1 dimensional game is 1 dimensional, even if its a heck of a dimension.

He's a Jeff Skinner carbon copy. He puts pucks in the net, period. He'll go top 15 for sure, maybe even top 10.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

He's a Jeff Skinner carbon copy. He puts pucks in the net, period. He'll go top 15 for sure, maybe even top 10.

Skinner while not a burner is a phenomenal skater.

Kaliyev is not that.

 

[Joey Bones]

I think Dorofeyev is getting highly underrated. I might be as bold as @Amazing Kreiderman to push him into the top 10 category. Been saying it since the summer.... the kid has it offensively. Played in more KHL games than Podkolzin has....

Another kid I think could push himself into the 1st round is Marcus Kallionkieli. Big kid, fast and can control the puck. Two-way potential is really interesting from him. Keeping an eye out on him and his teammate, Bobby Brink.

 

[Edge]

Dorofeyev has a shot to be a significant riser in the second half.

I have him at 21 for December, but he’s an intriguing prospect. I don’t know if he’ll push someone out of my top 10, but a ranking in the low teens is certainly a possibility.

 

[bl02]

5 would be insane. I'd love that in the case that we don't pick top 5 since it'd kick someone down to us.

I'd be thrilled to snag him later in the 1st though. As you said, that specific dimension is highly sought after and at that point, it's a risk thats more than worth taking.

You mean like Oliver

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Really? You must really love Dorofeyev. I like him as well, but see him as outside the top-15.

I do. At the U20 Four Nations he was better than Podkolzin, which is what pushed me to the point where I want Dorofeyev as much as Podkolzin. I think both are great prospects with game-breaking talent, but Dorofeyev has a better overall skillset. With the risk of going for a lazy comparison, he reminds me a lot of Kravtsov who also has a very complete skillset. I think Podkolzin might drop a bit unless he improves his play off the puck

 

[Blue Blooded]

Anyone else think Kaliyev drops into the bottom 3rd of the 1st round?

1 dimensional game is 1 dimensional, even if its a heck of a dimension.

I can't comment on his defensive play, but the discussion seems to indicate that he has a Lainesque statline with a 7-1 goal/assist ratio when in fact he has more assists than goals and I've read several scouring reports highlighting his playmaking ability. He might be a 1-way guy, but it seems unfair to put him into the "elite shot, mediocre complement"-category.

I'd have a hard time not putting him in my top-10 if he continues doing what he is doing, getting him in the 20's would be a steal.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Got back from Tampa yesterday, and will be flying to Helsinki in an hour for a team meeting and morale event. We are going to HIFK vs Ilves. Anton Lundell (2020 draft) is playing for HIFK. I'll try to focus on him and report here.

 

[tradenashnow]

This board has been in love with Euro prospects, especially Russians forever. Sadly, the Rangers are following suit which is why this team has been pushed around with ease for many years now.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

This board has been in love with Euro prospects, especially Russians forever. Sadly, the Rangers are following suit which is why this team has been pushed around with ease for many years now.

We started drafting Europeans high only since 2017 but sure. Let's use that as the reason we've been "pushed around for many years"

The last EU skater we drafted in the first round before 2017, who actually lived long enough to make the team was Korpikoski in 2004.

 

[McRanger]

We started drafting Europeans high only since 2017 but sure. Let's use that as the reason we've been "pushed around for many years"

The last EU skater we drafted in the first round before 2017, who actually lived long enough to make the team was Korpikoski in 2004.

We only have one Euro 2nd rounder in that span too, Anisimov.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Anyone else think Kaliyev drops into the bottom 3rd of the 1st round?

1 dimensional game is 1 dimensional, even if its a heck of a dimension.

the "one dimension" thing is a bit over done imo. his play at the halinka last summer (PPG with 3/3) was top notch showing both slick playmaking and skating ability and that finish.

hes played 100 games for hamilton and so far hes 55/43 for 98 so PPG player plus his assists this year are way up. (17 in 68 last year and 26 in 32 so far this yr) hes becoming more than just a finisher. his playmaking skills are developing nicely. does alot of damage 5v5 too which shows me alot.

hes easily my top pick for best release in the entire draft. his one timer is absolutely filthy. on and off the blade in an instant. he picks corners and the velocity and accuracy on that shot is nhl quality now.

he will beat nhl goalies with that release. no question.

if hes there in that 15 -20 range, i take him 10 outa 10 times. no question.

 

[McRanger]

This board has been in love with Euro prospects, especially Russians forever. Sadly, the Rangers are following suit which is why this team has been pushed around with ease for many years now.

Yeah the Rangers could never win the cup with a bunch of Russians playing important roles...