Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part II

[Trxjw]

@Trxjw @QJL is Dach above Kakko in your guys' ranking because he is a center? I like Dach a lot but it's tough to ignore the things Kakko is doing in Liiga at 17

It's certainly a factor. I tend to put an emphasis on centers when I'm comparing players but in this case it's more about how Dach elevates the game of the guys on his line and the fact that I think he could be a game-changing player in every zone. If he's not scoring he's playing solid D or picking pockets and breaking up plays in the neutral zone.

Kakko is a dynamic offensive talent. One of the premier guys in this draft for sure. I just think long-term Dach ends up the guy you can really build a line around.

 

[Edge]

Will probably post an updated list over the weekend. Some noticeable movers.

 

[Ghost of jas]

It's certainly a factor. I tend to put an emphasis on centers when I'm comparing players but in this case it's more about how Dach elevates the game of the guys on his line and the fact that I think he could be a game-changing player in every zone. If he's not scoring he's playing solid D or picking pockets and breaking up plays in the neutral zone.

Kakko is a dynamic offensive talent. One of the premier guys in this draft for sure. I just think long-term Dach ends up the guy you can really build a line around.

I’m not not going to allow this to happen again. First, my heart was broken by the Jets taking Schiefele. Then McPhee does the same to me with Cody Glass. I’m not going to let this happen with Dach, do you hear me?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Still think Cozens is getting slighted because he doesn’t have the benefit of play on a much better team like Dach

 

[Trxjw]

Will probably post an updated list over the weekend. Some noticeable movers.

You jumping on the Dach train yet?

 

[QJL]

@Trxjw @QJL is Dach above Kakko in your guys' ranking because he is a center? I like Dach a lot but it's tough to ignore the things Kakko is doing in Liiga at 17

The gap here isn’t tremendous and Kakko’s season has been exceptional. He is an elite wing prospect and won’t fall further than 4th in this draft.

The two things holding Dach back from having an all-time CHL season are his supporting cast and intensity level. He has been purely dominant in every aspect of the game and looks like he is toying with the competition. Once he gets players that can compliment his skill level and a coach that really pushes him, the upside is tremendous. His floor is Zibanejad-level. His likely is Scheifele-level. It’s the effortlessness with which he moves that makes me wonder what he’s capable of. Kakko has the motor but Kirby has the superior natural talent. I want to see Dach hit another level which it feels like is quite attainable given his temperate style.

 

[WeRa]

All 3 of Hughes, Kakko, and Dach are nearly interchangeable right now. If Dach only had a motor/more effort I think he might take over at #1.

It is pretty hard to compare three young players in different leagues. USDP vs. WHL vs. LIIGA... Why do you think they are interchangeable right now?

We can use for example NHL Translation Factors.. but in this table isn't USDP

Hughes 2.05 PPG (USDP) ~ ?? PPG
Kakko 0.57 PPG (Liiga) ~ 0.26 PPG
Dach 1.69 PPG (WHL) ~ 0.51 PPG

We can use another table: Hockey League Translation Factors: Methodology
There is the ratio between USDP and NHL 0,990 / 1,688 ~ 0,54 ... it means 1,09 PPG for Hughes?

 

[Blue Blooded]

These are Manny's NHLe factors. Apart from there not being distinctions between NCAA divisions, I find these to be the most accurate.

AHL	0.424121
AHMMPL	0.010296
AHMPL	0.008761
AJHL	0.05283
Allsvenskan	0.284865
AMBHL	0.005769
AMHL	0.020114
AMMHL	0.004646
AWHL	0.021238
AYHL 18U	0.019423
BCHL	0.06549
BCJHL	0.050039
BCMML	0.017547
Belarus	0.230657
Belarus2	0.07893
Big Nickel Midget	0.022481
CCHL	0.048157
CHL Challenge	0.292441
CHL T1	0.123
CJHL	0.043048
CoHL	0.14348
CSSHL	0.018196
CWG	0.080687
Czech	0.556278
Czech Q	0.451653
Czech U16	0.028376
Czech U18	0.058602
Czech U18 2	0.024371
Czech U20	0.09427
Czech U20 2	0.037059
Czech2	0.247782
Czech2 Q	0.177219
Czech3	0.117061
DEL	0.294943
Denmark	0.160321
Denmark U17	0.006876
Denmark U20	0.01626
Denmark2	0.027854
Division 1	0.108133
Division 2	0.050324
Division 3	0.030787
DNL	0.021062
ECHL	0.161258
EEHL	0.154274
EJHL	0.033949
Elite Jr. A	0.054295
Elite Jr. B	0.021758
Elite Novizen	0.023121
EmJHL	0.010661
EOJHL	0.019874
ETAHL	0.012438
ETAMMHL	0.013642
Germany	0.363254
Germany2	0.135789
Germany3	0.053394
GLJCHL	0.015726
GNML	0.008702
GOJHL	0.032578
GTHL	0.014381
GTMMHL	0.022172
HPHL U18	0.027672
I-divisioona	0.157774
IHL	0.362631
II-divisioona	0.035604
J18 Allsvenskan	0.067366
J18 Div.1	0.020131
J18 Elit	0.044511
J20 Div.1	0.025047
J20 Elit	0.040719
Jr. A I-divisioona	0.041334
Jr. A SM-liiga	0.096582
Jr. A SM-sarja	0.115427
Jr. B I-divisioona	0.026624
Jr. B Mestis	0.02306
Jr. B SM-sarja	0.047322
Jr. B SM-sarja Q	0.072824
Jr. B2 SM-sarja	0.019471
Jr. C I-divisioona	0.022087
Jr. C SM-sarja	0.025212
Jr. C SM-sarja Q	0.025327
Juniorallsvenskan	0.144275
Junioren-BL	0.015662
KHL	0.746116
KIJHL	0.020508
Kvalserien SHL	0.443045
Latvia	0.070551
Liiga	0.469643
M-Cup	0.196982
Mestis	0.165756
MHL	0.166428
MHSL U16	0.027019
MHSL U18	0.035577
Midget	0.016019
MJAHL	0.040581
MJHL	0.04852
MMHL	0.01319
MN State	0.02393
MWJHL	0.031815
NAHL	0.050014
NAMHL	0.004851
NAPHL 16U	0.027751
NAPHL 18U	0.018906
NBPEIMMHL	0.020583
NCAA	0.171146
NCAA III	0.051781
NDJCHL	0.016143
NDMHL	0.008243
NHL	1
NLA	0.463214
NLB	0.136748
NMHL	0.088105
NOJHL	0.032148
Norway	0.169111
Norway2	0.036172
NSMMHL	0.014907
OEMHL	0.009929
OEMMHL	0.013129
OHL	0.157715
OHL Cup	0.020333
OJHL	0.054114
OMJHL	0.184502
OPJHL	0.037812
PIJHL	0.023745
QGC-16	0.032056
QJAAAHL	0.040908
QMAAA	0.027364
QMEAA	0.005747
QMJHL	0.133235
Rikspucken	0.038968
Russia	0.720354
Russia U16	0.024174
Russia U16 Finals	0.045236
Russia U17	0.03804
Russia U17 Finals	0.059051
Russia U18	0.037763
Russia2	0.357549
Russia3	0.175489
SCTAMM	0.011462
SHL	0.637541
SJHL	0.04991
Slovakia	0.2912
Slovakia U18	0.028998
Slovakia U18 2	0.012911
Slovakia U20	0.051371
Slovakia2	0.107984
SMHL	0.022134
SM-sarja	0.334338
SOJHL	0.009919
Suomi-sarja	0.059203
SuperElit	0.111728
SwissDiv1	0.052869
T1EHL U16	0.016569
T1EHL U18	0.020249
TCQ-O	0.015526
TV-Pucken	0.051806
U16 Div.1	0.01479
U16 Elit	0.029016
U16 SM	0.030595
U17-Dev	0.096356
USA-S15	0.032573
USA-S16	0.030126
USA-S17	0.043165
USDP	0.071707
USHL	0.081282
USPHL 18U	0.013297
USPHL Premier	0.026328
WCCC-16	0.030152
WCHL	0.130254
WHA	0.696309
VHL	0.341939
WHL	0.154935
VIJHL	0.019698
WOHL	0.044681

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[True Blue]

Turcotte officially signed to play with Wisconsin next year recently as well. Would love to see Miller and Turcotte develop the next couple years.

That is my hope. Something akin to when Jimmy Johnson came out of Miami with lots of inside knowledge

 

[True Blue]

You jumping on the Dach train yet?

Don't think it requires a lot of jumping, IMO. I think his top 5 status was cemented fairly early on.

 

[Joey Bones]

Im just going to say it. Dorofeyev is the kid I'm tracking more than other prospects for this upcoming draft. I expect him to rise like Kravtsov but hopefully not too high so we can get him with our 2nd pick.

Yeah, I'm really loving this player more and more!!

 

[Joey Bones]

@Joey Bones

Our next love-child had a hattrick today

 

[Joey Bones]

@Joey Bones Love that you brought up Donaldson. He's a driver on his line and I love his speed and effort on the forecheck. Last year he took a backseat to Barron and Yates on that line scoring-wise but made a lot of it happen. Not sure if he leaves. He's only a year older than Barron as well, since I would've guessed 2. If he's PPG, and he's starting to feel it on his line now, and Cornell goes deep I think he might go.

I'll definitely try and take a look at the ECAC guys. The Princeton guys really intrigue me. I don't know the rest too well other than Snively who feels like he's been at Yale forever (He's like the Jevon Carter of hockey).

Donaldson's work ethic is really nice. I agree he's a driving force. Would really like to see what he could do in pros!!

There's a guy with Canisius, Dylan McLaughlin, that's looking decent as well, however, not sure how NHL ready he'll be. Johnny Walker from AZ State is looking pretty good, too.

 

[redwhiteandblue]

Donaldson's work ethic is really nice. I agree he's a driving force. Would really like to see what he could do in pros!!

There's a guy with Canisius, Dylan McLaughlin, that's looking decent as well, however, not sure how NHL ready he'll be. Johnny Walker from AZ State is looking pretty good, too.

Kid was just on Chiclets. Great kid, amazing name.

 

[Joey Bones]

Updated mocks....

2019 NHL Mock Draft & Simulator | Tankathon

1 (15) LW: Matthew Boldy (USA)(6'2"/187lbs., Shot: Left, USNTDP/USHL) *19/20 BC Commit*

2019 NHL Mock Draft | 2019 NHL Draft | NHL Draft

1 (17) LW/RW: Pavel Dorofeyev (RUS)(6'0"/163lbs., Shot: Left, Stalnye Lisy/MHL)

2019 NHL Mock Draft - NHL - DraftSite.com

1 (17) D: Thomas Harley (CAN)(6'3"/183lbs., Shot: Left, Mississauga/OHL)
2 (48) LW: Leevi Aaltonen (FIN)(5'9"/154lbs., Shot: Left, KalPa/Liiga)
2 (61) C/LW: Nick Robertson (USA)(5'9"/168lbs., Shot: Left, Peterborough/OHL)
3 (79) LW: Ethan Keppen (CAN)(6'2"/214lbs., Shot: Left, Flint/OHL)
5 (141) LW: Vladimir Alistrov (BLR)(6'2"/176lbs., Shot: Left, Edmonton/OHL)
6 (172) C: Gabriel Denis (CAN)(6'2"/187lbs., Shot: Left, Shawinigan/QMJHL)
7 (203) C: Max Wahlgren (SWE)(6'0"/183lbs., Shot: Left, MODOJ20/SuperElit)

Decent draft, but I don't like Harley in the 1st round. I think he is abysmal defensively and isn't physical in front of the net. Offensively, he's okay, but nothing eye-opening. Has a good wrist shot from the point, but that's about it. Aaltonen is a good pick, but maybe a bit of a reach in the 2nd round. He's solid in the transition game, positionally excellent in all three zones and can battle along the boards, despite being 154lbs. (as per eliteprospects). He's got a pretty decent motor and would be a good option on the forecheck/backcheck. Not sure about offensive upside, though. Nick Robertson, as I've mentioned before, is very inconsistent. He looked good at the Hlinka in the summer, but was having issues regaining that momentum at the start of the OHL season. He was injured, but it seems as though he's not anymore. A similar player to Nigel Dawes, I wouldn't take him that early. Keppen is a good pick in the 3rd. Strong skater and likes to have possession of the puck. Likes to crash the net and battle. Unfortunate he's on a crappy Flint team, but he could be a solid pick. Alistrov has had a mediocre start in Edmonton, but was a good player with the Belarus U18 team in the spring. Power forward type with slick hands in tight. Can also be used on the PP and PK. Needs work on his skating. Good gamble in the 5th. Max Wahlgren is the better of the two twins (Max and Joel Wahlgren), IMO. Another power forward type is more of a defensive minded player with decent wheels and smarts. Another good gamble in the 7th. Haven't seen Denis, but he is an assistant captain with Shawinigan in his first draft eligible season.

Thoughts?

 

[Edge]

Still think Cozens is getting slighted because he doesn’t have the benefit of play on a much better team like Dach

Truthfully, he is.

But even with the better supporting cast, it's getting harder and harder to rank Dach lower.

 

[Edge]

You jumping on the Dach train yet?

He's showing me a lot this season.

I won't lie, last year planted some serious doubts, but his play this season has been nothing short of spectacular.

I have him 4th.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Updated mocks....

2019 NHL Mock Draft & Simulator | Tankathon

1 (15) LW: Matthew Boldy (USA)(6'2"/187lbs., Shot: Left, USNTDP/USHL) *19/20 BC Commit*

2019 NHL Mock Draft | 2019 NHL Draft | NHL Draft

1 (17) LW/RW: Pavel Dorofeyev (RUS)(6'0"/163lbs., Shot: Left, Stalnye Lisy/MHL)

2019 NHL Mock Draft - NHL - DraftSite.com

1 (17) D: Thomas Harley (CAN)(6'3"/183lbs., Shot: Left, Mississauga/OHL)
2 (48) LW: Leevi Aaltonen (FIN)(5'9"/154lbs., Shot: Left, KalPa/Liiga)
2 (61) C/LW: Nick Robertson (USA)(5'9"/168lbs., Shot: Left, Peterborough/OHL)
3 (79) LW: Ethan Keppen (CAN)(6'2"/214lbs., Shot: Left, Flint/OHL)
5 (141) LW: Vladimir Alistrov (BLR)(6'2"/176lbs., Shot: Left, Edmonton/OHL)
6 (172) C: Gabriel Denis (CAN)(6'2"/187lbs., Shot: Left, Shawinigan/QMJHL)
7 (203) C: Max Wahlgren (SWE)(6'0"/183lbs., Shot: Left, MODOJ20/SuperElit)

Decent draft, but I don't like Harley in the 1st round. I think he is abysmal defensively and isn't physical in front of the net. Offensively, he's okay, but nothing eye-opening. Has a good wrist shot from the point, but that's about it. Aaltonen is a good pick, but maybe a bit of a reach in the 2nd round. He's solid in the transition game, positionally excellent in all three zones and can battle along the boards, despite being 154lbs. (as per eliteprospects). He's got a pretty decent motor and would be a good option on the forecheck/backcheck. Not sure about offensive upside, though. Nick Robertson, as I've mentioned before, is very inconsistent. He looked good at the Hlinka in the summer, but was having issues regaining that momentum at the start of the OHL season. He was injured, but it seems as though he's not anymore. A similar player to Nigel Dawes, I wouldn't take him that early. Keppen is a good pick in the 3rd. Strong skater and likes to have possession of the puck. Likes to crash the net and battle. Unfortunate he's on a crappy Flint team, but he could be a solid pick. Alistrov has had a mediocre start in Edmonton, but was a good player with the Belarus U18 team in the spring. Power forward type with slick hands in tight. Can also be used on the PP and PK. Needs work on his skating. Good gamble in the 5th. Max Wahlgren is the better of the two twins (Max and Joel Wahlgren), IMO. Another power forward type is more of a defensive minded player with decent wheels and smarts. Another good gamble in the 7th. Haven't seen Denis, but he is an assistant captain with Shawinigan in his first draft eligible season.

Thoughts?

Too early. I still don’t see the Rangers not drafting in the top 10 this upcoming draft.

 

[cozandeffect]

Donaldson's work ethic is really nice. I agree he's a driving force. Would really like to see what he could do in pros!!

There's a guy with Canisius, Dylan McLaughlin, that's looking decent as well, however, not sure how NHL ready he'll be. Johnny Walker from AZ State is looking pretty good, too.

I watched him last year against us and he looked really good. He was their only forward who could really do anything and we were killing teams early last year including them. I think he can skate and he's got good skill with the puck. His shot and his defense, idk.

Walker needs to be signed for the meme.

I see Donaldson as a smaller slightly more talented Fast if he hits his absolute ceiling(I'd call him a 6.5/7D on the old HF scale). More realistically I think he'll be one of those guys who's a 4A player. Really really good in the AHL not quite talented enough to crack a roster.

 

[Lays]

I really want Grewe if we have another 1st (which is pretty much guaranteed) this kid is huge hot head and can lay down nice hits all while being incredibly skilled and can play all 3 forward positions. I’ve been watching him a lot lately and every time I come away impressed with his all around game and hands. We need a villain

 

[Fvital92]

Just draft the half brazilian kid and I'll be happy.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Truthfully, he is.

But even with the better supporting cast, it's getting harder and harder to rank Dach lower.

It wasn’t meant as a knock on Dach. I think he’s genuinely earned the nod at 3, but Cozens still has a tantalizing skill set. If he weren’t stuck carrying Lethbridge, he’d be in more of the spotlight.

The kid I still remain high on is Kaliyev. I’m glad that projection has held up through November

 

[Joey Bones]

I really want Grewe if we have another 1st (which is pretty much guaranteed) this kid is huge hot head and can lay down nice hits all while being incredibly skilled and can play all 3 forward positions. I’ve been watching him a lot lately and every time I come away impressed with his all around game and hands. We need a villain

He's got some skill to his game that looks promising. I really like his mean streak, too, but Idk if he's the type that'll hurt his team with him in the box constantly.

ATM, I think he'd be a solid late 1st-early 2nd round pick....

 

[Joey Bones]

Just draft the half brazilian kid and I'll be happy.

I'm happy someone brought him up!!

His name is Marcus Kallionkieli and he plays with a really nice grind with an awesome forecheck. Always pressures defenders when they're in their zone and causes turnovers. What I like most about him is that he knows how to get open for a shot on net. His shot is good, but not the best. I'm not worried it won't get better, though. He can definitely snipe from the dots and crash the net for a goal. He's a three zone threat type player both defensively and offensively. Kid is not getting too recognized as a 1st rounder, but I don't think he's far off. Would be a steal in the 2nd round or later, despite him not having any NCAA commitment, ATM.

While we're talking about Sioux City, his teammate Bobby Brink is someone to keep an eye on, as well. Does everything Kallionkieli does, but is more a playmaker than a scorer, IMO. Not sure why he's committed to Denver in two seasons, though. I think he plays well enough to be a true freshman. We'll see if that commitment changes in the coming months before the draft.

 

[Lays]

I'm happy someone brought him up!!

His name is Marcus Kallionkieli and he plays with a really nice grind with an awesome forecheck. Always pressures defenders when they're in their zone and causes turnovers. What I like most about him is that he knows how to get open for a shot on net. His shot is good, but not the best. I'm not worried it won't get better, though. He can definitely snipe from the dots and crash the net for a goal. He's a three zone threat type player both defensively and offensively. Kid is not getting too recognized as a 1st rounder, but I don't think he's far off. Would be a steal in the 2nd round or later, despite him not having any NCAA commitment, ATM.

While we're talking about Sioux City, his teammate Bobby Brink is someone to keep an eye on, as well. Does everything Kallionkieli does, but is more a playmaker than a scorer, IMO. Not sure why he's committed to Denver in two seasons, though. I think he plays well enough to be a true freshman. We'll see if that commitment changes in the coming months before the draft.

I feel like I’m one of the few that has Kallionkieli over Brink (as of now, can change) but Kallionkieli somehow leaves me more impressed than Brink, has more translatable tools as well imo

Another interesting thing

I don’t know Swedish but the tweet translated says “Now the New York Rangers have an extra track of @ Samuel Fagemo”
And some comments say the article says the Rangers are very high on him
Fagemo was undrafted last year (which was a surprise, he was ranked 3rd/4th round iirc) he’s 5’11 so not undersized and he’s having a great start to the season with 9 points in 16 games. Needs to round out his game a bit but he’s getting some hype to go even higher than he was projected last year. I have him 91 right now

Edit: he’s actually getting some 1st round consideration. Don’t think I’d like the pick there but I’d be happy with taking him in the second