Salary Cap: - Dr Dubas | Off Season Acquire List | Nurse (X), EP40, Robertson, the other Robertson | Page 24 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
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Salary Cap: Dr Dubas | Off Season Acquire List | Nurse (X), EP40, Robertson, the other Robertson

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bambamcam4ever said:
This is a bad analogy for several reasons, the biggest one being that there are different measures of success. If you want to fund your retirement, having a steady job and being smart with your spending is a good approach. If your goal is to become a billionaire, well that's probably not going to cut it and I can't blame someone for trying the lottery if that's their goal.

Your approach is good for building a team that will be a steady borderline playoff team. But if you want the Penguins to win a championship, they need to take some risks and get lucky. There's 32 teams, there's decent odds they won't win again for several decades.
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Exactly.

I fail to understand why so many are deathly afraid of bottoming out for a couple years. Is that any more harmful to what's happened the past eight seasons? Living in mediocrity with nearly nothing to show for it?

If we don't win at least get some spicey prospects to get excited about instead of pumping up and old and tired core that's not enjoyed post season success going on nine years now.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
You're ignoring that this team is gaining a young 1C by giving up those picks. If you don't make that move, you both need to address the defense and also acquire a future 1C.

If you can sell off other guys to make the cost 2 top-10 1sts for Fantilli, I don't see an argument for how you're better off with 2 top-10 1sts than Fantilli. You're probably not hitting on a guy as good as Fantilli with those picks. Top-10 picks aren't guaranteed stars.

This is just the mystery box thing all over again:

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I'm not saying don't make a 4 1sts offer sheet. I'm saying don't do it yet. Do it in a few years with a player like Celebrini, Misa, Malhotra, Hagens etc if they pan out, and pair those guys with the players we obtain with our own picks, and the ones we already have, in between.
 
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bambamcam4ever said:
This is a bad analogy for several reasons, the biggest one being that there are different measures of success. If you want to fund your retirement, having a steady job and being smart with your spending is a good approach. If your goal is to become a billionaire, well that's probably not going to cut it and I can't blame someone for trying the lottery if that's their goal.

Your approach is good for building a team that will be a steady borderline playoff team. But if you want the Penguins to win a championship, they need to take some risks and get lucky. There's 32 teams, there's decent odds they won't win again for several decades.
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The Carolina thing as an example is always going to be so risky of a comparison. Like most teams win drafting really high end players that’s just how it works most of the time. We really don’t have the talent to not be using the picks.

TojoP said:
Everyone knows this by now. It's just bold to assume that this team would only be drafting late for the next four years if they signed Fantilli to an offer sheet.

Put it this way: Who here would trade Kindel and 3 1sts for Fantilli?

And Kindel wasn't even a top ten pick. Even one off year can make this a bad, because you shouldn't miss on all your other 1sts. 2 or 3 bad years would be a disaster.
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I think this is a really good point. I also don’t even think Fantilli is that good of a 1C where you can’t find one of those in the upcoming drafts. It’s just such a massive gamble when a lot of our key guys are older anyway.
DesertPenguin said:
I'm not saying don't make a 4 1sts offer sheet. I'm saying don't do it yet. Do it in a few years with a player like Celebrini, Misa, Malhotra, Hagens etc if they pan out, and pair those guys with the players we obtain with our own picks, and the ones we already have, in between.
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Philly also did the Leo one because he’s already going to be one of the top players in the league. They also have a lot of the supporting cast in place after being bad for so long.

We really don’t have the young talent to be considering these kind of moves.
 
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DesertPenguin said:
I'm not saying don't make a 4 1sts offer sheet. I'm saying don't do it yet. Do it in a few years with a player like Celebrini, Misa, Malhotra, Hagens etc if they pan out, and pair those guys with the players we obtain with our own picks, and the ones we already have, in between.
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Celebrini? SJ matches no matter what. Thats their Crosby.

The posters wanting us to do that revel in mediocrity. Fantilli doesn't put us over the top. It's trying to hasten an ascent upward, problem is there's a ceiling to that ascent!.

Better to take a couple bad years, build through the draft and be patient.

And if these posters didn't want patience they shouldn't have held onto the relics long after their uses/best days.
 
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Ryder71 said:
Celebrini? SJ matches no matter what. Thats their Crosby.

The posters wanting us to do that revel in mediocrity. Fantilli doesn't put us over the top. It's trying to hasten an ascent upward, problem is there's a ceiling to that ascent!.

Better to take a couple bad years, build through the draft and be patient.

And if these posters didn't want patience they shouldn't have held onto the relics long after their uses/best days.
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Agree there's no number they don't match for Celebrini, was just rattling off recently drafted #1 caliber players.
 
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TojoP said:
Everyone knows this by now. It's just bold to assume that this team would only be drafting late for the next four years if they signed Fantilli to an offer sheet.

Put it this way: Who here would trade Kindel and 3 1sts for Fantilli?

And Kindel wasn't even a top ten pick. Even one off year can make this a bad, because you shouldn't miss on all your other 1sts. 2 or 3 bad years would be a disaster.
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I wasn’t talking about Fantilli in that post. I was talking about trading one 1st for Pettersson. Hence why I mentioned EP numerous times in that post.
 
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Ugene Magic said:
What he is really saying is... he would eat 4 Leo Carlssom or Bedard socks.
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giphy4.gif
 
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On the topic of Pettersson

 
As for EP40: I don't think you're trading for EP40 with the bonafide 1C player of the past in mind. I think the days of EP40 being like, a legit top line 1C are way in the past. You're trying to buy low on a guy whose mental game is beat to absolute shit and you're hoping you can provide the environment, coaching, and linemates to get him back to a good spot with his game on the ice. I think there's huge risk there to be totally honest, and unless JR is gonna give him away, I'd personally stay far away. Let someone else try to solve that puzzle.

As it stands, I'm not sure EP40 is really that much better than Novak, he just comes with the egregious contract situation (between term, cap hit, and NTC).

As for the offer sheet thing; after Carlsson, I think you're gonna see teams just cave to the demands of their core players and not even risk the mess we saw this summer. There are guys I'd willingly pay 4 1sts for, but I doubt they even get close to available. This team's gonna have to do things the hard way once Sid decides he's done playing--suck for like half a decade and pray you land some legitimate core pieces with your top picks, and some hits later on as well. The rest of the building's gonna come from smart hockey trades imo. FA and TDL are damn near always huge bait.
 
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Fantilli is more athlete than hockey player to me. Kinda like a Larkin. Still a good hockey player but I wouldn’t OS him. Maybe I’ll look stupid for that in the coming years.
 
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Ok, so, that whole "players are most productive at age 21" thing wasn't sitting well with me. That's a lot of data to comb through so I'm starting out small. But the top 10 scorers since Crosby was drafted based on points per game and at least 820 games played (10 full seasons) were not most productive at 21. They were all forwards.

name - highest pts/game & age - highest pts/60 & age

Kucherov - 1.71, age 32 - 5.0, age 32
Crosby - 1.68, age 24, - 5.5, age 24
Draisaitl - 1.55, age 24 - 4.4, age 27
Mackinnon - 1.71, age 28 - 4.5, age 28
Panarin - 1.46, age 32 - 4.4, age 32 *** (first NHL season was age 24)
Pastrnak - 1.38, age 26 - 4.3, age 23
Malkin - 1.45, age 25 - 4.2, age 25
Ovechkin - 1.51, age 24 - 4.1, age 24
Kane - 1.29, age 27 - 3.8, age 27
Stamkos - 1.31, age 31 - 4.2, age 31

Again, at least for the top scoring talent for forwards since Crosby was drafted, this age 21 thing is completely wrong.

Will try to do the above for defense, then do the same again but for players with the most games played. See how top scoring vs. longevity would look.
 
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Randy Butternubs said:
Ok, so, that whole "players are most productive at age 21" thing wasn't sitting well with me. That's a lot of data to comb through so I'm starting out small. But the top 10 scorers since Crosby was drafted based on points per game and at least 820 games played (10 full seasons) were not most productive at 21. They were all forwards.

name - highest pts/game & age - highest pts/60 & age

Kucherov - 1.71, age 32 - 5.0, age 32
Crosby - 1.68, age 24, - 5.5, age 24
Draisaitl - 1.55, age 24 - 4.4, age 27
Mackinnon - 1.71, age 28 - 4.5, age 28
Panarin - 1.46, age 32 - 4.4, age 32 *** (first NHL season was age 24)
Pastrnak - 1.38, age 26 - 4.3, age 23
Malkin - 1.45, age 25 - 4.2, age 25
Ovechkin - 1.51, age 24 - 4.1, age 24
Kane - 1.29, age 27 - 3.8, age 27
Stamkos - 1.31, age 31 - 4.2, age 31

Again, at least for the top scoring talent for forwards since Crosby was drafted, this age 21 thing is completely wrong.

Will try to do the above for defense, then do the same again but for players with the most games played. See how top scoring vs. longevity would look.
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The problem with this is the major change in scoring eras. The spike in 2017/2018 and moving forward.

There's more data to consider.... Not worth the time.
 
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Randy Butternubs said:
Ok, so, that whole "players are most productive at age 21" thing wasn't sitting well with me. That's a lot of data to comb through so I'm starting out small. But the top 10 scorers since Crosby was drafted based on points per game and at least 820 games played (10 full seasons) were not most productive at 21. They were all forwards.

name - highest pts/game & age - highest pts/60 & age

Kucherov - 1.71, age 32 - 5.0, age 32
Crosby - 1.68, age 24, - 5.5, age 24
Draisaitl - 1.55, age 24 - 4.4, age 27
Mackinnon - 1.71, age 28 - 4.5, age 28
Panarin - 1.46, age 32 - 4.4, age 32 *** (first NHL season was age 24)
Pastrnak - 1.38, age 26 - 4.3, age 23
Malkin - 1.45, age 25 - 4.2, age 25
Ovechkin - 1.51, age 24 - 4.1, age 24
Kane - 1.29, age 27 - 3.8, age 27
Stamkos - 1.31, age 31 - 4.2, age 31

Again, at least for the top scoring talent for forwards since Crosby was drafted, this age 21 thing is completely wrong.

Will try to do the above for defense, then do the same again but for players with the most games played. See how top scoring vs. longevity would look.
Click to expand...
Very good post. Obviously it varies from player to player. Having highly productive linemates/teamates doesn't hurt either.

In generic terms I would suspect 23-27 is a typical superstars prime. Mario had a tremendous year at age 27 coming during cancer treatments. 160 points in 60 games. That was a 213 point pace over 80 games. Jagr turned 24 and was playing with Mario. Both had very impressive seasons beyond those points later in their careers.

McDavid's best year was at age 26 but had his 2hd best year last season at 29.

Messier was 29. Gretzky age 23 for best PPG and goals per game but best point total at 25. Gretzky netted 92 goals at 21. Yzerman 23 but had a very strong offensive year at 27.
 
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Andy99 said:
Pretty much…I’ll give him an F grade if we go to camp with this forward roster lol

www.prohockeyrumors.com

Did Kyle Dubas Misread The Summer Market?

The Penguins' GM appeared surprised by the prices this summer. Read more at Pro Hockey Rumors.
www.prohockeyrumors.com www.prohockeyrumors.com
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I mean yes. It’s pretty clear he didn’t account for prices being so high because of a weak UFA and weak draft.
 
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I think prices were way higher than Dubas was expecting, but the Penguins also didn’t have the assets to compete with what other teams were offering so it’s a moot point. The Penguins didn’t have a #4 overall pick that could get Byram. The Penguins didn’t have a #8 pick that could get either Robertson or Knies. It’s hard for me to get mad at Dubas for not pulling off a trade he didn’t have the ammo to make.

EP has always been the most realistic target for this team. Should come in at a very affordable cost, fills a big need long-term and his NMC and big contract would limit suitors. It’s just a big question whether EP wants to waive his NTC to leave Vancouver.
 
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The way to do it would be to

- seperate Fs and D

- take everyone’s career above min game threshold (personally would say 500)

- only count seasons where they played in 60+ games (or equivalent in lockout/pandemic year)

- scrape for 3 highest ranked seasons of career in league ranking in p/pg.. aka players statistical prime

- take what age those years are AND what number season it is of their career

- dot plot where you can click to show age or YOE or remove 3rd, 2nd, 1st scoring season or include them all

I think.
 
EP40 SUCKS! He got soft after getting the big contract etc etc.

Fortunately he wants to stay in VAN so...
 
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