Salary Cap: Dr Dubas | Off Season Acquire List | Nurse (X), EP40, Robertson, the other Robertson

[Koivunsons]

This is also xGF and not actual production.

I'm not talking about actual production.

 

[Koivunsons]

I mean those results from McCurdy's analysis is showing players peak offensively at age 23-25, not 21-23.

This graph is supporting exactly what my argument is. Offensive peak is between 21-23.

 

[ChaosAgent]

View attachment 1272638

Nutting's concubine needed to get his anger off with your favorite poster's least favorite poster Pixies. What a time to be alive

 

[TojoP]

Apparently Yohe said the Pens have no interest in bringing EK back due to his age. Feel like I heard a similar statement last year....

 

[Koivunsons]

Apparently Yohe said the Pens have no interest in bringing EK back due to his age. Feel like I heard a similar statement last year....

Damn. Can't believe we are dumb enough to bring EK back.

 

[Ryder71]

I think for certain teams yes. Given that the Pens will likely be picking top 10 for at least one of those years, I don’t think it’s worth it. Still too many holes to fill

Exactly right! We're far more likely to be a lottery team than a legit contender. No way do you risk that with where we are.

 

[Ryder71]

Exactly. You shoot your shot on a 4x 1st offer sheet when you're one elite player away from contending, and you expect your next 4 1sts will be 25OA or later. That ain't us.

100%! Well said.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I still think bringing EK back makes by far the most sense if he'd take a deal like what John Carlson took with Tampa Bay. If Dubas wants the team to stay competitive as long as Crosby is around, keeping Karlsson around until Crosby retires makes by far the most sense. I'm just not sure whether Karlsson would take a 2 year, $10 million AAV deal like Carlson took in Tampa.

They're still going to need to get a LD partner for both him and Korczak though. Maybe Carlile can have a breakout like Wotherspoon had, but I'm not really counting on it. I think the goal would be to have a base defense of something like:

XXXX-Karlsson
XXXX-Korczak
Carlile-Brunicke
Solovyov

But those are 2 big XXXXs that need to be filled. Nikishin should be a great add to fill the 2nd pair LD spot, but you need a guy for EK especially as he ages.

 

[Koivunsons]

I still think bringing EK back makes by far the most sense if he'd take a deal like what John Carlson took with Tampa Bay. If Dubas wants the team to stay competitive as long as Crosby is around, keeping Karlsson around until Crosby retires makes by far the most sense. I'm just not sure whether Karlsson would take a 2 year, $10 million AAV deal like Carlson took in Tampa.

They're still going to need to get a LD partner for both him and Korczak though. Maybe Carlile can have a breakout like Wotherspoon had, but I'm not really counting on it. I think the goal would be to have a base defense of something like:

XXXX-Karlsson
XXXX-Korczak
Carlile-Brunicke
Solovyov

But those are 2 big XXXXs that need to be filled. Nikishin should be a great add to fill the 2nd pair LD spot, but you need a guy for EK especially as he ages.

You still have Letang next year.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Is Philly a team that is one elite player away from contending? Because they just gave out that offersheet to Carlsson.

I think they're premature, but I think Briere believes and was betting they are. If he's right, they're a contender. If they're wrong, it's the next guy's problem.

Tippett Carlsson Koneckny
Forester Zegras Martone
Dvorak Cates Michkov

Looks like a real nice top 9 if the young players in there reach their potential.

Sanheim Risto
York Drysdale
Jiricek

Probably depends on whether Jiricek can step up to his potential or not. Bonk is also developing in the A right now, and they have assets in Nesbitt and Luchanko to trade to fill holes. It's not totally unreasonable.

Let me flip the question on you. What do we look like in 5 years if we offer sheet Fantilli and have none of our own firsts? Having a contender is going to require basically all of our recent high picks to pan out. We might have enough pieces now to fill out a forward core around Fantilli, Kindel and Chinakhov as the core forwards, but on D we have Pickering - Brunicke as a potential 2nd pair, and a whole lot of lotto tickets. We aren't there yet. The all in 4 1sts push is 2-3 years away if things all pan out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You still have Letang next year.

I'm talking about more in the 2027-2029 range that EK's 2 year extension would be a part of.

Girard will definitely be moved and I hope they'd sell TVR and Letang if they had the opportunity to get an upgrade. In Letang's case, they may already have that upgrade with Brunicke.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Let me flip the question on you. What do we look like in 5 years if we offer sheet Fantilli and have none of our own firsts? Having a contender is going to require basically all of our recent high picks to pan out. We might have enough pieces now to fill out a forward core around Fantilli, Kindel and Chinakhov as the core forwards, but on D we have Pickering - Brunicke as a potential 2nd pair, and a whole lot of lotto tickets. We aren't there yet. The all in 4 1sts push is 2-3 years away if things all pan out.

Why can't you sell off some guys to acquire additional 1sts for the ones you lost? If you offersheet Fantilli, sell off Novak and Rakell to recover likely a 1st and 2nd of the 4 1sts you gave up.

I also don't think the situation is really much different with or without offersheeting Fantilli. 1st rounders are still lottery tickets too. If they're picking in the #15-#25 range in the next 3 years, their defense likely wouldn't be looking any different than how it is now, but you wouldn't have your future 1C figured out yet either.

 

[DesertPenguin]

I still think bringing EK back makes by far the most sense if he'd take a deal like what John Carlson took with Tampa Bay. If Dubas wants the team to stay competitive as long as Crosby is around, keeping Karlsson around until Crosby retires makes by far the most sense. I'm just not sure whether Karlsson would take a 2 year, $10 million AAV deal like Carlson took in Tampa.

They're still going to need to get a LD partner for both him and Korczak though. Maybe Carlile can have a breakout like Wotherspoon had, but I'm not really counting on it. I think the goal would be to have a base defense of something like:

XXXX-Karlsson
XXXX-Korczak
Carlile-Brunicke
Solovyov

But those are 2 big XXXXs that need to be filled. Nikishin should be a great add to fill the 2nd pair LD spot, but you need a guy for EK especially as he ages.

Wotherspoon just proved you don't need a dynamic partner for Karlsson, you just need one that understands his role is to support Karlsson. Carlisle might be that right now. Pickering could be that in the future. That's also a player who can probably be acquired for a couple 2nds at some point. I think Middleton could have done it for us but we missed on that.

Agree the 2LD with Korczak is the trick. Nikishin would be perfect, but how do you pry him without involving Karlsson? I'm worried Dubas is going to try Morgan Reilly there. I guess in the mean time Girard is still hanging around, can fill in.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

People like Torts had a time in place in sports. Very similar to Bobby Knight and Bill Parcels in a way.
But you have to evolve. Players coming into the league tune out getting screamed at. Plus, if you read anything about psychology, fear is a short term motivator. So it's no wonder he went on a heater with Vegas. But he will wear out his welcome anywhere if he's there for more than a year. People just don't tolerate that shit anymore.

Meanwhile, Edmonton decided to hitch their wagon to Mike Babcock. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[DesertPenguin]

I'm talking about more in the 2027-2029 range that EK's 2 year extension would be a part of.

Girard will definitely be moved and I hope they'd sell TVR and Letang if they had the opportunity to get an upgrade. In Letang's case, they may already have that upgrade with Brunicke.

With all the RD depth we have, and with how high the org is on Brunicke, it feels like one of Karlsson or Letang isn't going to make it past the TDL this season, and may even be traded before camp. Wild as that is to think about, it's the only way the moves make sense to me.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Why can't you sell off some guys to acquire additional 1sts for the ones you lost? If you offersheet Fantilli, sell off Novak and Rakell to recover likely a 1st and 2nd of the 4 1sts you gave up.

I also don't think the situation is really much different with or without offersheeting Fantilli. 1st rounders are still lottery tickets too. If they're picking in the #15-#25 range in the next 3 years, their defense likely wouldn't be looking any different than how it is now, but you wouldn't have your future 1C figured out yet either.

Those are going to be mid 20s firsts from contenders. We're going to suck at least one or two of those four years and pick in the top 10. We need those top 10 picks before we sell the next 4 firsts.

 

[Koivunsons]

I'm talking about more in the 2027-2029 range that EK's 2 year extension would be a part of.

Girard will definitely be moved and I hope they'd sell TVR and Letang if they had the opportunity to get an upgrade. In Letang's case, they may already have that upgrade with Brunicke.

You really think they are trading Letang in his last year?

 

[Jacob]

I think without our next 4 1sts we’d still be in a pretty good place with Fantilli, Kindel, Brunicke, lots of young goalies, Rucks, Howe, Zonnon, Horcoff, Ilyin, McG. And keep in mind in my head we’re also doing Karlsson for Nikishin. And there’s plenty of 2nds and 3rds.

If we aren’t in the playoffs and need to recoup 1sts we can move Rakell and Rust for them. The only real risk is if we become a lottery team in the next 4 years, which with that roster seems unlikely.

 

[Koivunsons]

With all the RD depth we have, and with how high the org is on Brunicke, it feels like one of Karlsson or Letang isn't going to make it past the TDL this season, and may even be traded before camp. Wild as that is to think about, it's the only way the moves make sense to me.

Re-signing EK65 makes 0 sense. He's going to be 37.

If he isn't traded, that is a huge blemish on Dubas.

 

[eXile3]

I’ve always had trouble with the offensive peak findings. It doesn’t seem like any of the studies care to consider the difference in scoring throughout the years and that has to throw the data off at least a little.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Those are going to be mid 20s firsts from contenders. We're going to suck at least one or two of those four years and pick in the top 10. We need those top 10 picks before we sell the next 4 firsts.

You're ignoring that this team is gaining a young 1C by giving up those picks. If you don't make that move, you both need to address the defense and also acquire a future 1C.

If you can sell off other guys to make the cost 2 top-10 1sts for Fantilli, I don't see an argument for how you're better off with 2 top-10 1sts than Fantilli. You're probably not hitting on a guy as good as Fantilli with those picks. Top-10 picks aren't guaranteed stars.

This is just the mystery box thing all over again:

 

[Koivunsons]

You're ignoring that this team is gaining a young 1C by giving up those picks. If you don't make that move, you both need to address the defense and also acquire a future 1C.

If you can sell off other guys to make the cost 2 top-10 1sts for Fantilli, I don't see an argument for how you're better off with 2 top-10 1sts than Fantilli. You're probably not hitting on a guy as good as Fantilli with those picks. Top-10 picks aren't guaranteed stars.

This is just the mystery box thing all over again:

I just think this idea that Fantilli is a future 1C is a stretch.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think without our next 4 1sts we’d still be in pretty good place with Fantilli, Kindel, Brunicke, lots of young goalies, Rucks, Howe, Zonnon, Horcoff, Ilyin, McG. And keep in mind in my head we’re also doing Karlsson for Nikishin.

I also figure you'd be selling off some guys to make up for the picks they gave up for Fantilli. Novak would have to be sold just due to not having a roster spot for him and their older guys like Rakell, Rust and Karlsson would probably get sold as rentals. They might not bring back 1sts, but they'd absolutely bring back more picks to make up for losing out on the 1sts.

This is different than someone like Robertson, who's fairly old and they wouldn't be getting him at his peak ages if they threw him an offersheet. Fantilli is only turning 22 in October. Get him signed on a 7 year offersheet and you'll have him from ages 22-28. If you can't build a contender in 7 years with Fantilli and Kindel as your top-6 centers, then you're a shitty GM.

 

[eXile3]

I just think this idea that Fantilli is a future 1C is a stretch.

Maybe a low end. I don’t think he’ll ever get to a PPG but he’s a good two way player. Always impressed how he carries the puck with speed when I see him live.

Of course some might consider a 60+ point defensive center a number 1. Or even a Hal-of-famer like Bergeron.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Maybe a low end. I don’t think he’ll ever get to a PPG but he’s a good two way player. Always impressed how he carries the puck with speed when I see him live.

Of course some might consider a 60+ point defensive center a number 1. Or even a Hal-of-gamer like Bergeron.

IMO I think he tops out in the 70-75 point range, and a guy with that production and size/physicality is a 1C in my eyes. It's definitely more on the "average 1C" level, but it's still firmly a 1C.

Like I said, if you can't build up a contender with Fantilli and Kindel as your top-6 centers, then you're a shitty GM. That's obviously not Crosby and Malkin, but it's a damn good starting point moving forward.