Well, that's 16M vs 37M. Also gotta factor in GM competency here. It's Stan Bowman, the guy who gave Frederic 3.85M x 6 after an AHL level year.
And if Nurse comes to us, it's Dubas on the phone, who I think has a very strong case to be made that he's a top-3 trading GM of the last 2 years. He already ripped off Edmonton last year with the Jarry trade. We said so the day the trade was made.
I don't really believe in this fixed standard with player value across the league. We are often surprised with prices, at both ends of the spectrum.
For me it's more about who is interacting with who, and what the timing is. GMs often have small circles of GMs they talk to as well.
In this case it's unclear how many teams are calling. If there's many and Nurse is flexible with waiving the NMC, then you're probably gonna end up right, with it being a mild sweetener. It'll give Bowman options.
However, if it's between us and LA, as was initially reported as destinations Nurse wants, then we very much have the leverage.
Edmonton's situation is as desperate as any team in the league and Dubas is chillin.
What I will say though is that if the sweetener isn't significant, there's no reason we should do this. Dubas has proven he can get 2nds super easily.
Just re-sign Shea, who was solid offensively and defensively and won't break the bank.
I think a realistic projection for Nurse's play is like 16-20M value, out of the 37. If that's the case, that's a big favor we'd be doing for them.
First off, it was never initially reported as just between LA or Pittsburgh. Those two places were mentioned as places Nurse would accept a trade to, not the only ones. Digging back, Friedman said there was a 3-5 team list, so it's not a big list, but its not LA or Pittsburgh or bust and never was. And lists can grow too
And if we're treating Friedman as gospel, he's also said after that that there is legit interest and he thinks there will be a hockey deal.
So I think we're at the place where there's no rock and a hard place for Bowman.
Second... yeah, player values can be really fluid, but I don't think they're fluid to the point where Nurse's two extra years require a massive sweetener compared to guys like Trouba. Or that Nurse would require a 1st to move, where as Seth Jones at 5 x 7m got a 1st and Spencer Knight to boot. Big dmen are always valued higher than their numbers and guys with some pedigree usually retain a shine because GMs believe they can turn them around.
And to get on to point 3, I don't know that Dubas is immune to that. I certainly don't trust him like you do. Yeah, he's had a real nice heater trade, but no GM is perfect and his Toronto record suggests he'll regress to the mean. He's been up and down in terms of assessing dmen as a Pens GM too. I find it quite plausible that he'll think he can get Nurse to bounce back to being a good dman and it being worth a little flutter. Not saying that's definite, not saying I'd agree with him if he did, but there's no GM alive I trust when it comes to big dmen or guys they've got a history with.
And heck, even if I trust him as a trading GM, I can absolutely see a logic path where Dubas thinks he can rehabilitate Nurse than flip him for a 1st plus on some retention in two years. It'd be risky given the aging curve but if Seth Jones, starting at 9.5 x 5 in a nastier cap era, got 1st + Knight as a big high pedigree dman with a 63% WAR, then what can you get for Nurse down the line if you can get him to bounce back to when he had a similar WAR (which judging from the Jfresh chart, he probably did prior to last year's disaster season)? And speaking of disaster season, I saw a tweet pointing out Nurse mainly played against opposition best with the middle of Edmonton's line up so there's a very obvious way to improve his numbers.
I don't think I want it, I don't think it happens, but if it does, I think it won't be because Dubas offered the best quote for hauling away the stinkiest contract in the league and leaves with a haul, but because Dubas believes in him a little more than the others and gets him for a song and a bloated contract.
p.s. Forgot to add - if basing it on GM reputation then while Dubas and Bowman has a happy history, I have a two word argument for why Nurse won't be a big cap dump that I find very persuasive and that's "Ken Holland".
