Does Marner get Boo’d?

[notDatsyuk]

Simple.

Out of 211 times when a team is down 0-3 after the first three games in an NHL playoff series, only 4 times a team has won. Which means that if you go down 0-3 in a series you have about a 1.9% chance of winning the series. So yes if you lose 3 games from games 1-4 you are dead in the water. From a statistical point the series is over or the team has “lost” the series.


When a team is up 3-1, 90.8% of teams have won the series. So slightly better odds if you’re down 3-1.

Now how many game 7’s have the leafs had to come back from down 3-0 or 3-1 in the Matthews/Tavares era? With the numbers I outlined their odds to win are dog shit. So yes in theory they have lost those series in the first 4 games by going down by a wide margin early in the series.

How many times have the Leafs been up 3-0 or down 3-0 in a series in the Matthews era?

Trailing 3-1 after 4 game... odd to win the serie is at 9,2%

since 2016, 65 team trailing 3-1 after 4, only 4 team won it, 6% of the time.

Which is why the pressure is higher in games 5, 6, and 7. Thanks.

 

[francis246]

How many times have the Leafs been up 3-0 or down 3-0 in a series in the Matthews era?


Which is why the pressure is higher in games 5, 6, and 7. Thanks.

They’ve been down like that 3 out of the 8. Possibly 4 but 3 for sure. Then they are in history as one of the 4 teams that have blown a 3-1 lead haha

 

[Nineteen67]

View attachment 901573

Those are what a typical young hockey fan looks like in Toronto? Yikes.

 

[notDatsyuk]

They went down 3-0 against Florida as well. Never said they were swept and I have no idea. If I did I’d probably be the GM haha. I don’t have the answers. Just providing the stats. I guess it’s pretty shitty that we were in the 10% that loses a series up 3-1 and pretty shitty we were in the 1.9% that loses when down 3-0.

Honestly I think it’s just mental. They are too relaxed in both situations. They relax their game when they are up in a series and they relax in the first couple games at times and turn it up in the last few. You have to have intensity throughout.

So you're saying Marner produces well when the games are relaxed but not when the intensity is turned up?

 

[thusk]

How many times have the Leafs been up 3-0 or down 3-0 in a series in the Matthews era?


Which is why the pressure is higher in games 5, 6, and 7. Thanks.

It's a way to see it

show how it's so important to start the series the right way because it's pretty hard to overturn it... and yes if you're playing well enough to get a lead after 4 game, that removing a lot of pressure.

they're not game in playoff more important in a single serie.

 

[francis246]

So you're saying Marner produces well when the games are relaxed but not when the intensity is turned up?

They all suck in the playoffs. If one player like you’re saying isn’t producing it shouldn’t have that big impact on the team and if it does then you might as well get rid of all the players and start from scratch. Because once they get rid of Marner, you think Nylander and Matthews playoff production is just gonna suddenly improve to above PPG?

Matthew Tkachuk was pretty bad in both the conference final and Stanley cup final but the others on his team did not stop producing. Again Tkachuk had 3 goals in his last 19 playoff games this year or something close to that I have to count it again. His team still won. You need depth and consistency. If Matthews does not unlock a new level to his game in the playoffs and we don’t find good depth scoring it will not matter that we’ve let Marner go.

 

[notDatsyuk]

They’ve been down like that 3 out of the 8. Possibly 4 but 3 for sure. Then they are in history as one of the 4 teams that have blown a 3-1 lead haha

Won game 3 vs Boston 2018
Won games 1 and 3 vs Boston 2019
Won game 2 vs Columbus 2020
Won games 2 and 3 vs Montreal 2021
Won games 1 and 3 vs Tampa 2022
Won games 2 and 3 vs Tampa 2023
Lost first 3 to Florida 2023
Won game 2 vs Boston 2024.

Other than the Florida series, please tell me in which 2 they were down 3-0.

They were only down 3-0 in a series once, and oddly enough that was the only time they were in the second round, and the only time they lost a best of 7 in only 5 games.

 

[francis246]

Won game 3 vs Boston 2018
Won games 1 and 3 vs Boston 2019
Won game 2 vs Columbus 2020
Won games 2 and 3 vs Montreal 2021
Won games 1 and 3 vs Tampa 2022
Won games 2 and 3 vs Tampa 2023
Lost first 3 to Florida 2023
Won game 2 vs Boston 2024.

Other than the Florida series, please tell me in which 2 they were down 3-0.

They were only down 3-0 in a series once, and oddly enough that was the only time they were in the second round, and the only time they lost a best of 7 in only 5 games.

They have been down 3-1 in a series before including this past season. Myself and other referenced being down 3-1 and 3-0. Not sure why you’re hyperfocusing on the 3-0. The original conversation was about winning as many games as you can in the first four and how important that was. Hence why both winning odds for being up 3-0 and 3-1 were provided. Leafs have been up 3-1, down 3-1 and down 3-0 throughout the Matthews era.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This morning I did a quick calculation on games where the series was at stake and here's what I see. Its my math, so feel free to double check it.
Since 2019
Nylander - 16 GP - 7G - 6A - 0.81 PPG
Mattews - 14GP - 5G - 6A - 0.79 PPG
Tavares - 13GP - 5G - 5A - 0.77 PPG
Marner - 16GP - 1G - 8A - 0.56PPG
One stands out here

There have been 20 elimination games in the Matthews era.

Nylander: 0.80 P/GP
Tavares: 0.77 P/GP
Matthews: 0.72 P/GP
Marner: 0.65 P/GP

That's not really that notable of a difference in a 13-20 game sample. That's a difference of picking up 1.4 more points.

And it's not even about being out there contributing to fewer goals. It's just getting credit for less. Of our core 4, Marner has contributed to the 2nd most goals for in elimination games, and for all this talk about "defensive miscues", has contributed to the 2nd fewest goals being allowed in elimination games. That's not "standing out".

For the defensive plays - You don't understand Willys role, it's to clog middle and lock up the C. He does that. Body language sucks when the wide man gets on alone, but his role is to prevent a straight pass up the middle to Zacha. It doesn't shift to Pasta or the lane Pasta's taken at any point. Mo's deep for a puck retrieval want him more Mobile, with a slightly better gap, but you're in trouble for that set play if the winger hits flight. Marner allows that to happen.

He didn't "allow it to happen". Pastrnak is hitting flight before Marner is even on, with plenty of time for every Leaf player to notice and adapt, and then moves behind Marner. Ideally, Marner would pick up what Pastrnak is attempting and better impede his lane, but it's a split second after coming on before Pastrnak is already moving with momentum past him, and it's a small part of why the goal happened. I do understand Nylander's role, and that it's not technically his man, but as the Hall of Famer said, it's not technically Marner's man either, and you still want him adapting.

Nylander doesn't lock up the C or prevent a pass to Zacha. He's not physically engaged or locking his stick up, and when Nylander turns around doing nothing, Zacha just skates right past him. He could have adapted to the streaking winger as the closest defensive forward, especially with there being support and a defensive set-up for his man. Rielly is out of position, doesn't pick up the player, lets him get past him, and doesn't impede the shot. Samsonov doesn't pick up the puck or player, and could have done something other than flail on his stomach. Heck, even Tavares could have impeded or deflected the dump in.

Most goals do not have singular causes or one person to blame. They are a result of a multitude of mistakes from multiple players, and there are bigger mistakes than Marner here.

Surely you understand why goals against in Game 2 and 4 like you highlighted above in TB1 arent the same as Game 7 and game 6 OT, right?

Surely you understand that all playoff games in a series count the same, right? You ask for mistakes, and you get mistakes (including some that are carbon copies of what you criticize Marner for), but then you just dismiss or minimize every mistake that isn't Marner, exaggerate every mistake that is Marner, and then wonder why you end up with more Marner mistakes.

And for the record, every game has immense pressure, especially in Toronto. To pretend that only specific games do is ridiculous. Setting a good standard for the series? Pressure. Not going back home down 2-0? Pressure. Not going down 3-0 or 3-1 and all but locking in your fate? Pressure. Etc. Game 4 is Marner's best game, and that carries immense pressure, as the difference between a series being 2-2 and 3-1 is massive.

If the rest of the core 4 (or anybody else) was scoring as much as Marner in the earlier games, or making fewer mistakes, we wouldn't need the later games in the first place.

In Game 6 Marner flips the puck to center in OT (fine) but it's behind Matthews so it functions are purely a pressure release play turning possession over. He fails to cut the boards, which is his responsibility, then doesn't support the middle when beat wide in the 3on3.

given the situation is Marner recovers a rebound with time and space, but makes a bit of a panicked decision. Realistically the play is to either hit Matthews up the middle or turn back and regroup with the D since Tampa gives up low pressure and we have 2 D able to support. Regroup is the "normal" play here

He doesn't have time and space at all. He has an opponent quickly closing on him. The most common play here that happens dozens of times a game on both sides is flip the puck to center ice. It's not Marner's fault that Matthews overskated it. It's not Marner's fault that Matthews fell. Marner does cut the boards, and while he's not able to completely stop the player with momentum that shifts at the last second, he does force him to the outside and slow him down. And then he does go to support the middle, but what exactly is he supposed to do? He doesn't have a stick, the goal is scored well before he could reach anybody in front, and the closest opponent to him is well covered. Holl is the one that misses his assignment on the goal-scorer.

This is the only GA I see them on for, so I'm not sure I understand your scum comment

That was supposed to be game 5, not 6. My mistake.

Game 7 GWG is decent coverage overall, you could argue the first forward back is loose on his gap and lazy to support the 2on2, but you're getting picky at that point.

Lmao. You're literally ignoring a player skating up ice for offense on the series-winning goal instead of helping, and blaming the forward who did get back defensively and played zero part in the goal. Also, you've blamed Marner for other goals where we have decent coverage, so why does that matter here? This whole discussion is about "getting picky".

For the penalties piece and delay, I'd argue it's not the penalty itself that's concerning, it's the situation and trend.

There is no unique trend. He has the same number of penalties in elimination games as Nylander, and his rate is lower than the rest of the games.

So as a summary, I'm not so worried about a penalty, or even a misplay, or even a game where production falls off. I'm worried that our Core doesn't elevate when it matters most. I want all of them to be better. When I look at the results, the plays and the situations, there's one that stands out with more opportunity to improve consistently. The one I expect to be the second best offensively, arguably best defensively is the one who produces the least and noticeably so. He's the one who consistently misses his assignment in key moments

In summary, you say you're not worried about penalties, but then criticize penalties.
You say you're not worried about misplays, but then criticize and microanalyze every single play.
You say you're not worried about production, but then criticize a difference of less than 2 points in cherry picked games.
You say you're worried about the whole core not elevating when it matters most, but criticize only one.

In the playoffs... Marner is the top producer on the team, against the toughest matchups. He is one of the best defensive players on the team, and doesn't make an abnormal number of mistakes. He gets great defensive results and allows very few goals against. He has the best penalty differential on the team, and doesn't take an abnormal number of penalties. Even when cherry picking elimination games specifically, Marner is 4th in production by a negligible amount, but contributes to just as many goals being scored, and fewer goals being scored against. He isn't abnormal in penalties or mistakes.

There is nothing that stands out here. And for all this talk about pressure being the culprit, all you are doing is increasing it by feeding this ridiculous hate machine.

 

[ACC1224]

He’ll be in Parry Sound on the 30th if anyone wants to head up and boo.
Maybe a bus trip can be organized?

Toronto Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner invites MacTier community to join him at playground opening ceremony Aug. 30

Community members can join Marner at MacTier Public School on Friday, Aug. 30 at 11 a.m.

www.parrysound.com

 

[Gallagbi]

@Dekes For Days - We've said our piece. I don't agree with your position and think you're misguided on some key pieces like defensive assignments on goals and production v. credit. Im sure you feel the same about my statements, as seen above. Truthfully there hasn't been much in the argument that's caused me to rethink my position, so I'm not sure it's worth going in circles.

 

[notDatsyuk]

They all suck in the playoffs. If one player like you’re saying isn’t producing it shouldn’t have that big impact on the team and if it does then you might as well get rid of all the players and start from scratch. Because once they get rid of Marner, you think Nylander and Matthews playoff production is just gonna suddenly improve to above PPG?

Matthew Tkachuk was pretty bad in both the conference final and Stanley cup final but the others on his team did not stop producing. Again Tkachuk had 3 goals in his last 19 playoff games this year or something close to that I have to count it again. His team still won. You need depth and consistency. If Matthews does not unlock a new level to his game in the playoffs and we don’t find good depth scoring it will not matter that we’ve let Marner go.

It is clearly pointed out to you that one player is much worse that the other three, and your only response is "they are all bad"?

They have been down 3-1 in a series before including this past season. Myself and other referenced being down 3-1 and 3-0. Not sure why you’re hyperfocusing on the 3-0. The original conversation was about winning as many games as you can in the first four and how important that was. Hence why both winning odds for being up 3-0 and 3-1 were provided. Leafs have been up 3-1, down 3-1 and down 3-0 throughout the Matthews era.

I'm not hyperfocused on anything. I asked you a simple question and you gave a simple incorrect answer.

 

[notDatsyuk]

@Dekes For Days - We've said our piece. I don't agree with your position and think you're misguided on some key pieces like defensive assignments on goals and production v. credit. Im sure you feel the same about my statements, as seen above. Truthfully there hasn't been much in the argument that's caused me to rethink my position, so I'm not sure it's worth going in circles.

It's never worthwhile with that particular poster. Most of us either laugh or just ignore him.

 

[Gallagbi]

It's never worthwhile with that particular poster. Most of us either laugh or just ignore him.

I don't agree, he's one of the better posters on the site IMO. He's firm in his beliefs, which most of us are. For every argument he's made I've countered and vice versa.

Nothing there is dishonest from him, he's just putting different value than I do on certain aspects like difficulty building in the series, how to measure productivity and where defensive responsibility lies.

 

[IPS]

I don't agree, he's one of the better posters on the site IMO.

That's certainly one of the opinions on HFboards.

 

[Dekes For Days]

@Dekes For Days - We've said our piece. I don't agree with your position and think you're misguided on some key pieces like defensive assignments on goals and production v. credit. Im sure you feel the same about my statements, as seen above. Truthfully there hasn't been much in the argument that's caused me to rethink my position, so I'm not sure it's worth going in circles.

I don't agree, he's one of the better posters on the site IMO. He's firm in his beliefs, which most of us are. For every argument he's made I've countered and vice versa.
Nothing there is dishonest from him, he's just putting different value than I do on certain aspects like difficulty building in the series, how to measure productivity and where defensive responsibility lies.

Agreed that we don't really seem to be getting anywhere on this. I think you're one of the better posters here too, and we often align more, but I think Marner just evokes something in people. I understand the concerns, and it's something to keep an eye on, but I disagree with your interpretation of the plays, the things you're putting emphasis on, and the conclusions you're drawing from the data - both overall and elimination. That said, I always respect somebody who is there to talk hockey, argue their side, and then agree to disagree. Especially on a board where many only know insults, and are incapable of making an argument or ending things with class.

I think at the end of the day, what we both want more than anything is to just see them all excel, and the Leafs win. I wish I could say that around here more often.

 

[rumman]

Even as a fan of Marner I don’t see an initial extension happening. I think they will let him go to UFA and explore what his value is. Very similar to what Tampa did with Stamkos. Maybe he comes back but I could also see a team like Chicago going heavy after Marner.

One can wish, it would be wonderful if Chicago could save the Leafs from themselves, but never underestimate the stupidity of Leaf management………

 

[bax]

Perfec

He’ll be in Parry Sound on the 30th if anyone wants to head up and boo.
Maybe a bus trip can be organized?

https://www.parrysound.com/news/tor...94f26c9-b90f-519a-8193-2fbd9bc11ca2.html[/URL

Perfect we’ll be at the cottage anyway. Appreciate the heads up

 

[Bust]

Perfec


Perfect we’ll be at the cottage anyway. Appreciate the heads up

He should be Boo’d for this play alone.



He’s not worth a penny more than Willie on this team, and I personally would have reservations about offering the same contract.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Those are what a typical young hockey fan looks like in Toronto? Yikes.

Then there's these rando commandos , experts at violence in a game they've never played in their life. Those are what we need more of. The truest fans are the most aggressive..

 

[HamiltonNHL]

He should be Boo’d for this play alone.



He’s not worth a penny more than Willie on this team, and I personally would have reservations about offering the same contract.

I think Mitch *has* to do this.

He’s not built for contact.

One bad move and he’s gone for a month.

I think plays like this are just part of sheltering his frail body

 

[Bust]

I think Mitch *has* to do this.

He’s not built for contact.

One bad move and he’s gone for a month.

I think plays like this are just part of sheltering his frail body

Very much a junior style hockey play by a 8 year NHL vet and alternate captain.

Berube will not stand for that, I can guarantee it.

 

[Antropovsky]

I think Mitch *has* to do this.

He’s not built for contact.

One bad move and he’s gone for a month.

I think plays like this are just part of sheltering his frail body

its a part of his "winning is not at the the top of my priority list" attitude. Thats all.

 

[Antropovsky]

He should be Boo’d for this play alone.



He’s not worth a penny more than Willie on this team, and I personally would have reservations about offering the same contract.

Nylander has 15 goals in his past 29 playoff games.

Marner has 6 goals in his last 32 playoff games.

Yea.. Marner deserves much less than Nylander.

 

[ACC1224]

Guess we’re about a month away from seeing what reaction there is if any.