Does anyone want to talk about the Capitals

[Oilslick941611]

If the team that’s leading the league in scoring, goal differential, has the greatest goal scorer of all time, and is second in the nhl in win percentage is forgettable to you, maybe you should just admit to yourself that you don’t actually like hockey.

hmmmm, i guess you are right! I dont like hockey.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think after last season you could’ve safely assumed that they weren’t that bad. Making the playoffs in Ovechkin’s worst season was a bigger accomplishment than they got credit for.

I think Carbery is proving himself to be one of the best young coaches in the league, if not the very best. So they have that going for them in a major way.

They are going to make the playoffs. They may even get a high seed. I don’t think I expect them to keep up their play to this extent, but I also don’t see them completely falling off and barely making the playoffs.

At the same time, my impression has been that while there has been some improvement with some of their key players like Strome, McMichael, Protas that these guys are way over performing a rational improvement curve from them. They are all shooting clear career highs and on pace for like 30-50 more points than previous career highs. Ovechkin was also shooting a clear career high that wasn’t very sustainable either.

I think they have a good team. I just think when you get to the playoffs and everything is erased that they probably don’t have the horses. They are probably getting a little lucky right now, even if they’re improved. They’ll probably see a regression as the season goes on. And I think when it matters that they won’t yet have the pieces to do more than maybe win a round (and that also looks questionable to me).

So I would say they’re probably like the 10th or so best team in the league this year, and I think that’s a clear improvement because they were 5-10 spots lower last season. They are moving in the right direction, but I don’t think there’s anything that would make me believe this is sustainable this season and that they’re a Cup contender. Asking too much of players that’ve essentially never proven it.

 

[BallardEra]

Caps improved to 16-4-3 in their last 23 games against the Devils dating back to the 2020-21 season.

The Caps are 10-1-0 in their last 11 games at Prudential Center.

 

[HTFN]

I think after last season you could’ve safely assumed that they weren’t that bad. Making the playoffs in Ovechkin’s worst season was a bigger accomplishment than they got credit for.

I think Carbery is proving himself to be one of the best young coaches in the league, if not the very best. So they have that going for them in a major way.

They are going to make the playoffs. They may even get a high seed. I don’t think I expect them to keep up their play to this extent, but I also don’t see them completely falling off and barely making the playoffs.

At the same time, my impression has been that while there has been some improvement with some of their key players like Strome, McMichael, Protas that these guys are way over performing a rational improvement curve from them. They are all shooting clear career highs and on pace for like 30-50 more points than previous career highs. Ovechkin was also shooting a clear career high that wasn’t very sustainable either.

I think they have a good team. I just think when you get to the playoffs and everything is erased that they probably don’t have the horses. They are probably getting a little lucky right now, even if they’re improved. They’ll probably see a regression as the season goes on. And I think when it matters that they won’t yet have the pieces to do more than maybe win a round (and that also looks questionable to me).

So I would say they’re probably like the 10th or so best team in the league this year, and I think that’s a clear improvement because they were 5-10 spots lower last season. They are moving in the right direction, but I don’t think there’s anything that would make me believe this is sustainable this season and that they’re a Cup contender. Asking too much of players that’ve essentially never proven it.

arguably the worst byproduct of the advanced stats age.

What is a rational improvement curve for a late-blooming 6'6" wing with hands? Are we just pacing with everyone's D+X years or are we watching players and deciding if this is sustainable with context?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

arguably the worst byproduct of the advanced stats age.

What is a rational improvement curve for a late-blooming 6'6" wing with hands? Are we just pacing with everyone's D+X years or are we watching players and deciding if this is sustainable with context?

Or it’s merely realistic.

It’s simply not realistic that all these players that have never shown a semblance of this all hit career highs by such a large margin. Players sometimes improve out of nowhere to a much higher tier of player. I can think of someone like William Karlsson or Jared McCann as prime examples. You might get 1 or 2 in the league per year. You don’t tend to get three on the same team in a season.

 

[My3Sons]

Excellent coaching and buy in. They are playing complementary hockey and seem to be more than the sum of their parts. I think they may be on a bit of a shooting bender which may return to earth but they are fundamentally sound.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

If the team that’s leading the league in scoring, goal differential, has the greatest goal scorer of all time, and is second in the nhl in win percentage is forgettable to you, maybe you should just admit to yourself that you don’t actually like hockey.

Or more likely they're placing higher standards on other teams than they do their own. What has been excitable about the team in their avatar in the last decade or so?

 

[HTFN]

Or it’s merely realistic.

It’s simply not realistic that all these players that have never shown a semblance of this all hit career highs by such a large margin. Players sometimes improve out of nowhere to a much higher tier of player. I can think of someone like William Karlsson or Jared McCann as prime examples. You might get 1 or 2 in the league per year. You don’t tend to get three on the same team in a season.

You’re arguing against the margins rather than the concept and double dipping on the same goofy stuff I take issue with.

McMichael, for example, underperformed compared to expectations from fans and probably coaching last year. When we talk about the player you compare from career highs instead of these expectations, so this pace seems wildly unsustainable. The reality is that people watching him last year knew correcting his shot alone would see huge improvement on top of a regular year of physical growth, which is what we see.

Protas showed big flashes last year of a high IQ top-6 still learning to develop his feet and use his frame. I am well documented last season saying that if he added one major tool to his game he would turn a massive corner, the conversation was literally about how somebody with this size and talent wouldn’t follow conventional development standards.

I’m not going to fault people for not following Capitals prospects but to us this is nowhere near as surprising and harder to wave off as a fluke. I don’t fault you for seeing the trend and showing pause, but I don’t think you can watch the players and identify them as playing above their heads right now.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

In a couple of years Sid will be 40 years old and Malkin/Letang will be gone.

Will be full rebuild mode for the Pens by then.

Crosby will be the same age Ovechkin is now. Not many Caps left from Ovechkin's heyday still playing with them yet here they are.

We'll see how things go.

 

[GreatSaveLuongo]

Burn some villages?

 

[BallardEra]

Crosby will be the same age Ovechkin is now. Not many Caps left from Ovechkin's heyday still playing with them yet here they are.

We'll see how things go.

Crosby will either ask for a trade or retire after his 2 year contract is up at the age of 39.

He won't want to be part of a rebuild in Pittsburgh at the age of 40.

 

[PlushMinus]

Or more likely they're placing higher standards on other teams than they do their own. What has been excitable about the team in their avatar in the last decade or so?

Exciting: they have McDavid and Draisatl

Sad: they still haven't won a Cup even with McDavid and Draisatl

Hilarious: they appear to have a Stanley Cup hangover without actually winning a Stanley Cup

 

[KCC]

They are this year's Vancouver Canucks. Nothing more. Every year there's a team that overachieves. Washington is that team.

 

[gritdash60]

I will admit i thought Capitals are going to rebuild and just give Ovie some help on the powerplay for a chance to get the record. Looks like they reminded me how important coaching is, and not only give #8 a shot for the record but gonna be a problem in the playoffs.

 

[BallardEra]

They are this year's Vancouver Canucks. Nothing more. Every year there's a team that overachieves. Washington is that team.

Similar to the Oilers of last season.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Yes, Washington is experiencing some good shooting luck that isn't sustainable in the long run. All that says is that they will not wind up scoring the 345 goals they're currently pacing for, which would be the most of any team in the past 30 years.

But even accounting for regression, they're 4th in the league in 5v5 expected goals %. They're playing extremely well, and also getting extremely lucky. Nice combo!

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Crosby will either ask for a trade or retire after his 2 year contract is up at the age of 39.

He won't want to be part of a rebuild in Pittsburgh at the age of 40.

Thanks Nostradamus. Stay tuned.

 

[BallardEra]

Thanks Nostradamus. Stay tuned.

Stay tuned for what exactly? This core is already 37-38 years old.

Next step is to rebuild after they miss the playoffs this year for a third straight season.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Stay tuned for what exactly? This core is already 37-38 years old.

Next step is to rebuild after they miss the playoffs this year for a third straight season.

To see whether Crosby sticks around.

You obviously have your sources.

 

[crab]

"No business", and yet, it took an Allen giveaway goal to seal the game for the Caps. You're free to take the position that the Devils had no business being in that game and that shades better on the Caps, that's fine. I'm more of the mind that the Devils played horribly and still lost by a fluke goal while having to play two AHLers and Kurtis Macdermid (or not play them as it was) in place of three regulars on the fourth line.

You act like the Devils had no turnover either. They had an entirely new coaching staff, had arguably the toughest schedule in the league between travel and back-to-backs through November so no practice time, and about six new signings to acclimate into the team. And that game in October may have been their fourth game, but they were also missing two of their top four defensemen in Pesce and Hughes.

If you actually watched the game the Devils got caved in. The analytics supported this with the Caps having ~2x the expected goals than the Devils.

 

[BallardEra]

To see whether Crosby sticks around.

You obviously have your sources.

Crosby won’t go anywhere. He wanted the band and Sullivan to stick around.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Crosby won’t go anywhere. He wanted the band and Sullivan to stick around.

You literally just said he'll either ask for a trade or retire after this contract.

Is a trade sticking around?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Yes, Washington is experiencing some good shooting luck that isn't sustainable in the long run. All that says is that they will not wind up scoring the 345 goals they're currently pacing for, which would be the most of any team in the past 30 years.

But even accounting for regression, they're 4th in the league in 5v5 expected goals %. They're playing extremely well, and also getting extremely lucky. Nice combo!

They showed a graphic during the game yesterday about how the Capitals lead the nhl in goals scored from under 10 feet away. I imagine that would contribute to a higher shooting percentage.

 

[BallardEra]

You literally just said he'll either ask for a trade or retire after this contract.

Is a trade sticking around?

Sid will always have the last call on that. He will not want to sit through a rebuild at the age of 40.

 

[Calicaps]

So leaving aside the Pens talk in a thread about the Caps, I'm fine with them being ignored, both here on HF and in the hockey media, who don't seem to have noticed them. Let everyone sleep on them.