Speculation: Does anyone have 2nd thoughts/change of heart about Mrazek?

[colchar]

I track my own variation of a goaltending advanced stat that I call TruSv% (different from GSAA in the sense that it uses SA/60 compared to league average to adhust SV% and accounts for differences in HD/LD chances) and he hasn't been great the last few years.

Sweet Jebus.

 

[zeke]

There's no mystery as to why dubas has picked up first Campbell and now mrazek. Unsurprisingly, it's based on stats.

Over the last 5yrs, 50 goalies have faced at least 2500 shot attempts. Here's the top-30 goalies in terms of dfsv% - basically a stat which tracks the difference between a goalies save percentage and his expected save percentage based on the quality of shots he faces. Here's the top-30 of those 50 goalies the last 3yrs:

So Dubas is betting on a stat that's probably at least similar to this one here. He bet on it when he grabbed Campbell and it worked out very well so far, so we can be pretty hopeful it will also work out with Mrazek.


And Mrazek's place on this list can be explained by team stats as well.

Over the last 3yrs, the Canes have been the #1 team in hockey in terms of fewest shots allowed - letting up 28.17 shots against per 60min. But, they are much less impressive when it comes to shot quality - over these 3yrs they rank only 17th in xga/60 at 2.81. That combination of elite in shot prevention but mediocre in chance prevention is obviously the worst thing for a goalie's save percentage.

 

[ottomaddox]

There's no mystery as to why dubas has picked up first Campbell and now mrazek. Unsurprisingly, it's based on stats.

Over the last 5yrs, 50 goalies have faced at least 2500 shot attempts. Here's the top-30 goalies in terms of dfsv% - basically a stat which tracks the difference between a goalies save percentage and his expected save percentage based on the quality of shots he faces. Here's the top-30 of those 50 goalies the last 3yrs:

View attachment 463773


So Dubas is betting on a stat that's probably at least similar to this one here. He bet on it when he grabbed Campbell and it worked out very well so far, so we can be pretty hopeful it will also work out with Mrazek.


And Mrazek's place on this list can be explained by team stats as well.

Over the last 3yrs, the Canes have been the #1 team in hockey in terms of fewest shots allowed - letting up 28.17 shots against per 60min. But, they are much less impressive when it comes to shot quality - over these 3yrs they rank only 17th in xga/60 at 2.81. That combination of elite in shot prevention but mediocre in chance prevention is obviously the worst thing for a goalie's save percentage.

True. See Salary Cap and recent NHL flat cap.

 

[Racer88]

I was reading and following with great interest until the expected goals comment. Is that even a real thing
Who decides how many goals should be expected?

 

[zeke]

I was reading and following with great interest until the expected goals comment. Is that even a real thing
Who decides how many goals should be expected?

Shot distance, type, and creation decides it.

 

[Racer88]

Shot distance, type, and creation decides it.

Thx

 

[ottomaddox]

There's no mystery as to why dubas has picked up first Campbell and now mrazek. Unsurprisingly, it's based on stats.

Over the last 5yrs, 50 goalies have faced at least 2500 shot attempts. Here's the top-30 goalies in terms of dfsv% - basically a stat which tracks the difference between a goalies save percentage and his expected save percentage based on the quality of shots he faces. Here's the top-30 of those 50 goalies the last 3yrs:

View attachment 463773


So Dubas is betting on a stat that's probably at least similar to this one here. He bet on it when he grabbed Campbell and it worked out very well so far, so we can be pretty hopeful it will also work out with Mrazek.


And Mrazek's place on this list can be explained by team stats as well.

Over the last 3yrs, the Canes have been the #1 team in hockey in terms of fewest shots allowed - letting up 28.17 shots against per 60min. But, they are much less impressive when it comes to shot quality - over these 3yrs they rank only 17th in xga/60 at 2.81. That combination of elite in shot prevention but mediocre in chance prevention is obviously the worst thing for a goalie's save percentage.

When you say this you are negating opinion. You are claiming this as fact. How can this be factual? Do you work in the Analytics Dept at MLSE?

 

[MBH]

What do you think?

Has your opinion changed since his signing?

Did you like this signing in the first place?

If you've changed your mind, why did you change your mind?

Mrazek's going to win the job.
And probably lose it to injury.

 

[MBH]

He’s also a goaltender who chokes in the playoffs. In their conference finals run, he had a sub .900 somehow. I have more faith in Campbell then I do him

Mrazek got them to the conference finals. He shutdown the capitals in games 6-7.
He got them started in round 2 with a shutout and then got hurt in game 2.
He sucked returning from injury against Boston

 

[Aashir]

Mrazek got them to the conference finals. He shutdown the capitals in games 6-7.
He got them started in round 2 with a shutout and then got hurt in game 2.
He sucked returning from injury against Boston

True, if he can get the job done, it’s whatever, his stats can be .950 or a .890 as long as we win. I’m just worried that with his horrid play in games 1-5 mixed with our inability to score come playoffs, we won’t get a chance at game 6 and 7

 

[Sypher04]

There's no mystery as to why dubas has picked up first Campbell and now mrazek. Unsurprisingly, it's based on stats.

Over the last 5yrs, 50 goalies have faced at least 2500 shot attempts. Here's the top-30 goalies in terms of dfsv% - basically a stat which tracks the difference between a goalies save percentage and his expected save percentage based on the quality of shots he faces. Here's the top-30 of those 50 goalies the last 3yrs:

View attachment 463773


So Dubas is betting on a stat that's probably at least similar to this one here. He bet on it when he grabbed Campbell and it worked out very well so far, so we can be pretty hopeful it will also work out with Mrazek.


And Mrazek's place on this list can be explained by team stats as well.

Over the last 3yrs, the Canes have been the #1 team in hockey in terms of fewest shots allowed - letting up 28.17 shots against per 60min. But, they are much less impressive when it comes to shot quality - over these 3yrs they rank only 17th in xga/60 at 2.81. That combination of elite in shot prevention but mediocre in chance prevention is obviously the worst thing for a goalie's save percentage.

lol poor Freddy. He’s fallen so far from where he was those first few years

 

[varano]

Too much money for a guy who isn't very good. He played in a highly defensive system. He's going to get ripped apart in Toronto

 

[Dekes For Days]

He played in a highly defensive system. He's going to get ripped apart in Toronto

Carolina put up the 16th best defensive results over the 3 years Mrazek was there. Toronto put up the 4th best defensive results last year.

 

[Tarmore]

Can you have a 2nd thought without having a 1st one?

Only if you have a time machine

 

[Dayjobdave]

There's no mystery as to why dubas has picked up first Campbell and now mrazek. Unsurprisingly, it's based on stats.

Over the last 5yrs, 50 goalies have faced at least 2500 shot attempts. Here's the top-30 goalies in terms of dfsv% - basically a stat which tracks the difference between a goalies save percentage and his expected save percentage based on the quality of shots he faces. Here's the top-30 of those 50 goalies the last 3yrs:

View attachment 463773


So Dubas is betting on a stat that's probably at least similar to this one here. He bet on it when he grabbed Campbell and it worked out very well so far, so we can be pretty hopeful it will also work out with Mrazek.


And Mrazek's place on this list can be explained by team stats as well.

Over the last 3yrs, the Canes have been the #1 team in hockey in terms of fewest shots allowed - letting up 28.17 shots against per 60min. But, they are much less impressive when it comes to shot quality - over these 3yrs they rank only 17th in xga/60 at 2.81. That combination of elite in shot prevention but mediocre in chance prevention is obviously the worst thing for a goalie's save percentage.

Thanks for this. Great info. It’s posts like this that I really appreciate about this site.

 

[zeke]

I just noticed I said "last 5yrs" at the top of that post but I meant last 3yrs.

 

[TMLAM34]

Honestly I’m pretty excited to see Mrazek play. He’s a really good goalie and I’m all in for this tandem opposed to running with a true starting goaltender unless his name was Price, Fleury, Vasilevsky, you get the point…

 

[ottomaddox]

This guy is horseshit.

Why doesn't he read the play? Why cant he see a momentum shift? Can't he f***ing smother a Puck? He keeps the play going as though he's a f***ing playmaker or something. He's shit, and has to be way better.

Smother the f***ing puck for a whistle you idiot!

 

[sIDEsHOW93]

He has played 1 full game. Lil early for hate or praise lol

 

[Havoc]

I've been watching hockey since I was 4 years old so I know better than to judge a goalie in his first game back from injury and that first game being his first full game of the season.

Mid-season this will be an easy 5-1 game for us don't worry.

 

[Buds17]

Not exactly a banner performance. I'll still take the full game and win.

 

[saffronleaf]

need to give him more chances. i'm hopeful they can be a solid tandem.

 

[cyris]

I hated the signing at the time. But 2 games isn’t close to enough to judge his signing.

I hope I was wrong and this is a great signing for us but he hasn’t been great so far. But I don’t we can judge him 1 month into a 3 year contract.

 

[justashadowof]

Maybe a deflection off Muzzin on the 1st goal. Open slot chance on the 2nd. Maybe could have done better on the 3rd and the 4th was completely screened.

 

[socko]

My original opinion was that Campbell is better and its a lot of money for a good backup. Opinion hasn't really changed.