Do you think this team is better or worse going into next season?

[Americanadian]

How did you come up with that?

I made a model using EvolvingHockey data. I post it to this board all the time.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I made a model using EvolvingHockey data. I post it to this board all the time.

I must have missed it because I've never seen it.

 

[Al14]

I can't vote as there is no option called "Much of the same ol'shit."

IMHO, as of this post, our Leafs have just shuffled the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Until we see how the new D-men and goalie impact the on ice performance, I can't say one way or the other if our Leafs are better or worse.

As I see it, our Leafs still have issues to address on the PK and PP. OEL might somewhat help the PP. Tanev might improve the PK. And who knows if Hakanpaa will even play? Hopefully, the new coaching staff can straighten both special teams out.

Will Tanev stay healthy? Will OEL be able to effectively QB the PP? Will an over-payment on his new contract help Liljegren to improve?

Also, until the forward group are restructured, it's much of the same there too. Where is the Bertuzzi replacement? Are they really going to run-it-back with Marner?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Weather you like the contract or not It's quite clearly not about the long term.

With the potential exception of Woll, and that will depend on him, none of the signings were about the long term.

In fact I'd go as far as to say, as long as Matthews is here VERY few, and possibly none of any upcoming moves are about long term.

I'd bet my bottom dollar that EVERY move made for the next 4 years will be about winning a Stanley cup NOW.

Even if say Jarnkrok got traded for a 3rd and 4th, those picks would be nothing more than deadline currency just like that Florida 2025 2nd is.

Like it or not Leafs are not thinking long term

Yes it's obvious that they're not thinking about the long term, that doesn't change the fact that long term that contract is gross.

That's also why I said they better win the cup in the next couple of years, you saw that part right? And the emoji I put after that comment indicates how I view their chances.

Most likely scenario IMO is that we extend Marner, come nowhere near the cup but empty the cupboards while trying to win (just like we've been doing fo rthe last 7 years) and then we start the new rebuild 5 years from now or so.

 

[Tak7]

1. They can't score in the playoffs
2. They are spending $7.5M more on Forwards this season than last season
3. They are worse at forward this season than last season - no Bertuzzi. No 3C.
4. They have no more cap space.

The blueline might be better, but overall, they aren't a better team than they were last season.

This team, as currently constructed a decade into the Shanaplan, is not a contender.

 

[Americanadian]

I must have missed it because I've never seen it.

I post these screenshots all the time:

 

[Gary Nylund]

Meh, the core 4 drive the bus and we know where this bus is going come April. So whatever, at least this is the final season of this madness. The additions + Berube are not going to do anything.

I would hope it's the final season of this madness but I think it's more likely that Marner is extended and the madness continues indefinitely.

It's again easily a 100+ point team in the regular season. That's about the only sure thing. Like last season, and frankly every prior season, the key for this team will be winning the division (or, even better, the conference) in order to get a more favourable first round opponent.

Doesn't matter who we play as we seem to lose no matter who we play in the 1st round. And the one time we did win, we were big favorites in the 2nd round and got destroyed.

We don't lose because our opponents are so tough, we lose because choking in game 7 is our specialty.

 

[VanW27]

Lots of posts lately about the goaltending upgrade, but I think we need a reality check there.

While Sammy struggled, the team put up a 117pt pace with him in the net (38 decisions)

Regardless of how good Stolarz plays he'll be hard pressed to match that pace.

It's like when you have a pitcher go 22-6 with a 4.50 ERA. He walks as a UFA and you replace him with a 3.25 ERA starter the next season. It is the right move, but you aren't gaining any wins year over year with that. In fact you'll be lucky if you only lose a few and not more.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I post these screenshots all the time:
View attachment 893521

I've never seen that.

Does it change if you swap Benoit with OEL?

Because I think OEL-McCabe is the 2nd pair at least to start.

 

[Roo]

They are definitely better, on paper.

I suspect they will get off to a slow start, as they adjust to playing a high pace, high forechecking style of play. I think that will make us more difficult to play against, but I think most of our improvement will depend on some players taking steps forward in their game.

Can Knies score 20 goals this year?
Can McMann play a full season, and become the power forward we need him to be?
Does Holmberg grab that 3C role and excel in it, or his he really only a 4th liner with defensive ability?
Does Liljegren take that step forward we are all waiting for?
Does Woll become the goalie we all know he is capable of?
Is Cowan a capable NHLer?

These are all questions unrelated to UFA. The UFAs make us better on paper, but it’s these guys above that will help get us to the next level as our top guys are already in their prime.

 

[Americanadian]

I've never seen that.

Does it change if you swap Benoit with OEL?

Because I think OEL-McCabe is the 2nd pair at least to start.

Barely - putting OEL in 2nd pair minutes and Benoit in 3rd pair is worth 0.2 points.

 

[Mess]

Coaching improved ..........

Goaltending improved ...

Defense improved ............

Core 4 forwards overpaid and crippling the team putting it in Cap Hell ..

Until Marner is traded and JT contract cut a least into 1/2 this team will struggle with 4 players in the top 12 in highest AAV while the 8 other players in the top dozen are spread among the other 31 teams.

League's WORST cap management ...

, which offsets any reasonable gains in other areas because it makes Leafs Cinderella Pretenders and not Stanley Cup Contenders.

 

[weems]

Berube is the biggest X factor.
I personally don't believe Keefe was getting the most possible out of this group.
I saw what happened to both EDM and VAN last season and it felt like I was watching totally different teams with different work-rates/structure then before.
I would guess that under Berube, we will see a more consistent intensity and commitment to winning then previously.

 

[ACC1224]

Just by adding Tanev and Berube they are easily better.
Give me Stolarz over Samsonov as well.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

I mean regardless the frowning going around towards our core right now, they're a lock to tear up the regular season.

It's going to be the same old story of being left in the unknown until playoffs start. For all we know this is the year matthews and marner tear it up 2 points per game in a series. Need ZERO offensive upgrades in such a circumstance. The upgrade comes within from sheer beast mode.

 

[A1LeafNation]

The same....as it has been for the past 6 years.

 

[Buds17]

Roughly the same? The team looks to be better behind the bench and deeper on the blueline. Have to hope some of the younger forwards can advance in their game and that the goalies can play in more than they previously have.

 

[NJG]

To be blunt, anyone who chooses worse doesn’t know anything about hockey

Facts. And all the people crying in this thread is hilarious...

The coaching is improved.

We didn't loose anyone of any significance or anyone unreplaceable. We got the best defensive D-man in the league, We got a D-man that was good enough to play on the stanley cup champions but somehow for us that's a bad move and he's not good enough for the Leafs. Oh and he can also play the powerplay and probably takes the first powerplay role from Rielly (another area we struggled in)... all that for $3.5.

We got more defensive depth and better defensively which in return is going to make the goaltending better and help out the goalies, so our goaltending should be better unless Woll and Stolarz fall off a cliff which I don't see happening.

You can just go out and sign Daniel Sprong and that pretty much replaces Bertuzzis goals.

 

[IPS]

They'll do some stuff in the regular season that'll be exciting and interesting for the blue and white goggle cheerleaders and then we'll see another inevitable early exit as the Core 4 + pawn shop squad team structure always does.

 

[NJG]

They'll do some stuff in the regular season that'll be exciting and interesting for the blue and white goggle cheerleaders and then we'll see another inevitable early exit as the Core 4 + pawn shop squad team structure always does.

And what would you like Tre to do about that? You want him to trade two guys that he can't trade? even if he wanted to do that? Like what are you crying about exactly? Tavares contract is done next year, Marners contract is done next year, until then you can't really do much and you can thank Dubas for that.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

To be blunt, anyone who chooses worse doesn’t know anything about hockey

Really?

I look at it as rn compared to last year this date

Our goaltending is a wash, maybe slight improvement. People forget Samsonov had a .919 in 42 games. Playoffs stats weren’t amazing but he finally got a round win, something over 7 goalies or so couldn’t do. Murray/Woll/Kallgren were decent enough in backup duties.

Our defence is probably around the same. Rielly, McCabe, Liljegren remain here still. Brodie and Tanev are probably similar, ditto to klingberg and OEL, OEL probably a slight edge. Benoit/Haakanpana vs Gio is probably an edge to this year as gio was a fossil last year too.

We lost bertuzzi and didn’t replace him. We haven’t really gotten a 3C, whereas domi was the player we got for that last year. Robertson wants out so who knows if he’s here still come September. Maybe some growth from knies helps. Tavares gets a year older though. I’d say it’s a wash yet again

Coaching is one thing we have definitely improved. Berube vs Keefe is an upgrade, but Savard over Boucher is the big one, we actually have a guy who knows what a pp is, not a guy who defended against them. like lane lambert too, all in all a clear upgrade.

So whilst yes the team is better, if someone is to believe that tanev’s age catches up to him this year, and that the bertuzzi loss is bigger than it seems, you could argue we are worse.

 

[IPS]

And what would you like Tre to do about that? You want him to trade two guys that he can't trade? even if he wanted to do that? Like what are you crying about exactly? Tavares contract is done next year, Marners contract is done next year, until then you can't really do much and you can thank Dubas for that.

I didn't mention anything about what Tre can do about it nor was I "crying" about anything, I was simply sharing my opinion based on 8 years of evidence. Settle down on the tone policing Karen.

 

[NJG]

Our defence is probably around the same. Rielly, McCabe, Liljegren remain here still. Brodie and Tanev are probably similar, ditto to klingberg and OEL, OEL probably a slight edge. Benoit/Haakanpana vs Gio is probably an edge to this year as gio was a fossil last year too.

What? You can't be serious... You just compared Tanev and Brodie as similar you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

I didn't mention anything about what Tre can do about it nor was I "crying" about anything, I was simply sharing my opinion based on 8 years of evidence. Settle down on the tone policing Karen.

You're crying about the core 4 that can't be changed until next year (which you know) so unless you just like bitching what's the point of your comment? Who's really the Karen?

 

[IPS]

You're crying about the core 4 that can't be changed until next year (which you know) so unless you just like bitching or hearing your own voice what's the point of your comment? Who's really the Karen?

You mean people simply sharing their opinions on a message board? If that's triggering you maybe you should take a break.

 

[NJG]

You mean people simply sharing their opinions on a message board? If that's triggering you maybe you should take a break.

You shared your opinion and I shared my opinion on your opinion... so what's your point? This is a message board for sharing opinions no? If you don't want people to counter your opinions don't post then cry when someone does...

You're complaining about something that's the fault of someone else that's not possible to change at the moment... so thanks for letting everyone know something we all knew for how many years now?