Do you think a goalie will ever go 1st OA again?

[HarrisonFord]

Nope, and it shouldn't happen either.

From 1995-2010 (stopped there because then it's got too many early career goalies), the 1st goalie picked has gone onto be the best goalie in the draft in 3/16 cases

Since 1995-2010, any goalie picked in the 1st round has gone on to be the best goalie in the draft in 3/16 cases

Could add one more for each case from the 2005 draft - Price (1st rnd) vs. Rask (1st rnd) vs. Quick (2nd rnd) could be debated

 

[Sevren]

Teams that understand how important it is to have premium goal-tending will pick a goalie 1st OA eventually.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Teams that understand how important it is to have premium goal-tending will pick a goalie 1st OA eventually.

The problem isn't knowing how important goaltending is, or how important it is to have a great goalie, it's being able to accurately predict an elite goalie. A goalie is easily the most difficult position to predict based on junior play

 

[Retire91]

Yes a goalie will go 1st overall at some point in the future.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Ever? Yes, at soime point of time there will be the 1-2-3 combination necessary for it to happen (weaker draft class, elite goaltending prospect, and a team picking at the top that is desperate for goaltending).

In general they're still going the way in the draft as running backs are in the NFL Draft - too much risk to spend top picks on and too random to have the belief that you have to get the top prospect at the position or else.

 

[phosphene*]

Absolutely not.

 

[Shepard]

Statistically it is very likely a goalie will go 1st OA again, unless the NHL just dies within 20 seasons, but it could even happen in that timeframe.

 

[BigBen]

I doubt it. Although a goalie is capable of dominating a game such as a forward or defensemen, they definitely have longer development curves- drafting a goalie 1st overall who will likely not be a starter for another 3+ years doesn't make the most sense when you usually have a forward you can pick from who can fill a gap in your lineup the following year. And the fact that the one goalie that did go 1st overall became an average goaltender makes it less likely.

 

[Jericho111091]

Eventually, yes, I doubt it'll happen again any time soon though.

 

[StoneHands]

EVER? Of course there will be...are some of you guys suggesting that in the next 5000 years, a goalie won't go first when a goalie went first twice in the past 15? Statistically as likely as it gets.

I was just about to say this. There will be some kid that blows everyone away at some point. Wouldn't be surprised if it's a Swedish or Russian who plays in the KHL or SHL at 18 and proves he can dominate pros. The thought of saying it will NEVER happen again is insane.

 

[Retire91]

I doubt it. Although a goalie is capable of dominating a game such as a forward or defensemen, they definitely have longer development curves- drafting a goalie 1st overall who will likely not be a starter for another 3+ years doesn't make the most sense when you usually have a forward you can pick from who can fill a gap in your lineup the following year. And the fact that the one goalie that did go 1st overall became an average goaltender makes it less likely.

I don't think a team would use a first overall on a goalie they see having a 3-4 year development curve. Much like Price or Flurey the AHL would likely be minimal. If they are going to use their first I would think they have their sites on them being a near immediate starter.

 

[aemoreira1981]

That's a pretty rough generalisation considering that there have only been three goalies ever taken first overall in an NHL entry draft:

1968 - Michel Plasse (Montreal Canadiens)
2000 - Rick DiPietro (New York Islanders)
2003 - Marc-Andre Fleury (Pittsburgh Penguins)

You cannot really compare the first six drafts to others. The quality of draft-eligible players than was weaker because of major-junior sponsorship. When talking about the draft, it should be 1969 and later as the first complete draft was in 1969.

 

[Nynja*]

If theres a possible generational talent goaltender in a draft, and a team already has a great goaltender thats 32-34, and has a good young core, I could see them taking a goaltender first. The current goaltender they have should start slowing down by the time that draft pick hits 23, their current goaltender is now 37-39 and will need to have their starts cut down, at which point the team can work 1A 1B, giving the rookie a decent work load while keeping their current goaltender fresh. Eventually you give the rookie a couple more starts, and the older goaltender either hangs it up, or pulls a Brodeur.

But thats really a case of stars aligning.

 

[mikethelegacy]

Seems like teams are very cautious about drafting goalies in the first round since DiPietro and MAF.

He won us a cup, so I'd say first overall well-spent. He's back to playing like MAF of old again and he'll win us another cup if the damn management could be a team in front of him that remembers they play hockey for a living...MAF is hardly the problem for us..

 

[Hospy]

Forever is a long time so I will say yes.

 

[radapex]

Who where nummber 2 pick in 2000 and 2003?

#2 overall pick in 1968 was forward Roger Belisle (Montreal Canadiens)

#2 overall pick in 2000 was forward Dany Heatley (Atlanta Thrashers)

#2 overall pick in 2003 was forward Eric Staal (Carolina Hurricanes)

 

[Hawksfan2828]

Of course a goalie will go 1st overall again...

All it takes is a weak draft with an exceptional (not even great) goalie.

Not 1st overall but look how high Barrasso went in a pretty good draft, and it wasn't a bad pick either. To make it even more surprising was that the kid was straight out of high school. He went right after Lafontaine and Yzerman at #5.

One could argue that in the 83 draft Barrasso could have gone at #3 overall.

 

[radapex]

You cannot really compare the first six drafts to others. The quality of draft-eligible players than was weaker because of major-junior sponsorship. When talking about the draft, it should be 1969 and later as the first complete draft was in 1969.

True. But still, it's only happened three times in the history of the draft, so it's not like it happens with regularity or anything. It's likely that another goalie goes 1st overall at some point, but I wouldn't even want to try to predict when that'll happen.

 

[H382]

Yeah, my son.

Was about to post the same thing.

 

[BeastoftheEast85]

Yea forever is a long, long time. Two happened last decade. I wouldn't be surprised if we have another one by the year 2025.

 

[Hawksfan2828]

True. But still, it's only happened three times in the history of the draft, so it's not like it happens with regularity or anything. It's likely that another goalie goes 1st overall at some point, but I wouldn't even want to try to predict when that'll happen.

If it matters the draft really wasn't taken seriously until the WHA/NHL merger.

Also, I would like to add that goalies take so long to develop because coaching staff becomes almost obsessed with technique rather than allowing a goalie to stop pucks the way he knows best.

With that said I really disapprove the way goalies are handled these days.

In the past there have been plenty of great goalies who were never worked with and who just knew how to stop the puck, weather it be traditional or not, when in reality if a goalie can stop pucks - what does it matter what technique he uses? I think Hasek and Hextall are perfect examples of that, Dryden and Esposito to boot.

 

[BigEezyE22]

Don't see it happening unless we get some sort of McDavid esque goalie that just blows everyone away

I don't think McDavid is projecting to be much of a goalie.

 

[StoneHands]

Nope, and it shouldn't happen either.

From 1995-2010 (stopped there because then it's got too many early career goalies), the 1st goalie picked has gone onto be the best goalie in the draft in 3/16 cases

Since 1995-2010, any goalie picked in the 1st round has gone on to be the best goalie in the draft in 3/16 cases

Could add one more for each case from the 2005 draft - Price (1st rnd) vs. Rask (1st rnd) vs. Quick (2nd rnd) could be debated

To be fair the draft is pretty much a crapshoot anyway unless you're picking a forward. Here are the best forwards and defenseman in those same drafts.

95- Iginla at 11th
Redden at 2nd (1st defenseman)

96- Briere at 24th
Chara at 56th

97 - Thornton at 1st, an argument can be made for Hossa at 12th.
Brian Campbell at 156th.

98- Datsyuk at 171st.
Markov at 162nd.

99- Zetterberg at 210 or the Sedins at 2nd and 3rd but they weren't the first forwards.
Leopold at 44th or Jackman at 17th.

2000- Heatley at 2nd (1st forward).
Visnovsky at 118th.

01 - Kovalchuk at 1st
Bieksa, Ehrhoff, or Zidlicky all in the 100s or Hamhuis at 12th.

02- Nash at 1st.
Keith at 54th.

03- Getzlaf at 19th.
Weber at 49th.

04- Ovechkin at 1st.
Streit at 262nd.

05- Crosby at 1st.
Yandle at 105th or Letang at 62nd

06- Giroux at 22nd.
Johnson at 1st

07- Kane at 1st.
Subban at 43rd.

08- Stamkos at 1st.
Karlsson at 15th.

09- Tavares at 1st.
OEL at 6th.

10- Seguin at 2nd.
Fowler at 12th.

The 1st forward taken was the best forward 9 out of 16 years.
The 1st defenseman taken was the best defenseman taken 2 out of 16 years.

Obviously this is all based on my personal opinions but I tried to go based off of what most people would think is the best player.

Basically if you have a top 3 pick, just take a forward and save yourself the stress.

 

[Voight]

Teams that understand how important it is to have premium goal-tending will pick a goalie 1st OA eventually.

Quick was a third rounder, Crawford was second rounder, Niemi was a free agent, same with Thomas. You don't really need a high pick to find a premium or cup winning goalie. Obviously it can work out like Price, and to a lesser extent MAF did but it can fail miserably a la DiPietro. Its better to pick a goalie in the later rounds (Quick, Rinne, Bishop etc) and have a good developmental staff in place than waste a first round pick on one.

 

[KevinRedkey]

It will obviously happen eventually, but it probably has to be a weak draft, and a standout goalie.

In terms of a "super-talent" goalie that is Dr after 1st in a normal/strong draft year, I don't see it happening. The guy would have to put up ridiculous numbers and break several records in a league like the OHL, before even being considered.