Do You Believe We should Go All In Over the Next 2 Years?

[Fogelhund]

No shade on Mo, and understand that the NMC is a challenge, but I'd look at Arizona. They can't move Chychrun for the price they are asking... two firsts and a prospect... so, tell them, you'll give the equivalent, but Crouse is included. Crouse + Chychrun for 2023 1st, Mo and Robertson. Crouse has four years after this year on his contract, Chychrun has two plus this year. Again, no shade on Mo, but when Chychrun is healthy, he's a better D IMO. It clicks all the boxes, and Crouse + Chych are $8.9, while Mo is $7.5, plus any near league minimum LW makes the caps a wash. Crouse and Chych are more physical, brings size, secondary scoring...

Now, I doubt we'd move Mo, more out of loyalty than anything else, but this absolutely does what we are looking for.

 

[nsleaf]

No team should ever go "all in".
Makes no sense in the cap world.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm not saying he'll never be a top-4 D but it took Liljegren 4 AHL seasons to be ready for a sheltered 3RD role and he was bigger with better tools and better defensive IQ. Maybe without injuries and Babcock you can accelerate that timeline by a season, but that still puts Niemela 4 years out from being ready for serious NHL minutes.

Even if we keep Niemela and he develops on schedule with no hiccups, we're still going to need to spend 4-5 mil on a Brodie replacement unless Timmins or one of the Marlies exceeds expectations and can take over those minutes without a big drop-off, and Niemela is again locked into 3RD minutes until that contract expires.

We need to solve the Brodie situation next offseason and unless someone in-house is ready to step in to those minutes, we're not fixing that hole without a 4x5+ commitment unless there's another Giordano rattling around somewhere ready to take league min.

All true but I'm still not anxious to trade away our best D prospect. Not saying he's untouchable or anything, but hoping he can step in (even if it is 4 years from now or whatever) and be a part of our team for a decade or so.

 

[NVious]

No team should ever go "all in".
Makes no sense in the cap world.

A cup is worth at least 10 years of futility, being a Leafs fan I would say at least 25, we haven't won in nearly 60 years now. Can we have a dash of urgency? Its crazy that people will legit soon be able to have lived a full life and never seen the Leafs win the cup.

 

[nuck]

Why the hell do we need to go more "all-in" than we have over the past 3 years. Our core players are 25. If we have a healthy program with a chance to win over multiple years doesn't that look more appealing than blowing your brains out for 2023 and have nothing to offer in the years when you're trying to keep Matthews and Nylander and Marner around?

Look how long Boston's window of contention has been since the Chara signing. With good drafting and consistently good asset management you can have a program win a cup and still be in contention a decade later, with core pieces moving on.

There's no reason to go 2015 Blue Jays.

But if you can't get past the 1st round, have you ever been in contention? With the Chara example, the Bs made a great add, won a Cup with him, and then had him for another 10 years and won jack. One can argue that if they had ever made another significant addition they would have had another Cup. The goal is to get over the top, not to almost get there for many years like Joe Thornton's Sharks. And the Bruins still spent assets, they just fell short of repeating.

The big midstream add for the Leaf's was JT who unfortunately wasn't the answer but they are married to that decision. Tavares was the solution to a problem they didn't have, and Z came in and won a Norris. So if the Leaf's Chara didn't actually turn out to be a Chara, and they can't afford another UFA game changer, they need to follow a different path or they may end up like the Sharks.

The real question is, what is all in? Basically everything not on the current roster? Based on the current defense performance I'm not convinced there is an obvious spend-it-all addition that makes them much better without pulling working pieces out of the lineup to make that upgrade. Who does that when the club is 2nd overall? And Dubas is already reluctant to do major surgery when the club isn't doing great.

So while I am pretty comfortable with anything that increases their chances being on the table I don't see an "all-in with everything" get. A more dynamic top 6 forward could make a mark and the bar outside of the big 4 is pretty low for that. The big cost only comes up if you aren't renting and maybe want some retention as well.

 

[Stephen]

But if you can't get past the 1st round, have you ever been in contention? With the Chara example, the Bs made a great add, won a Cup with him, and then had him for another 10 years and won jack. One can argue that if they had ever made another significant addition they would have had another Cup. The goal is to get over the top, not to almost get there for many years like Joe Thornton's Sharks. And the Bruins still spent assets, they just fell short of repeating.

The big midstream add for the Leaf's was JT who unfortunately wasn't the answer but they are married to that decision. Tavares was the solution to a problem they didn't have, and Z came in and won a Norris. So if the Leaf's Chara didn't actually turn out to be a Chara, and they can't afford another UFA game changer, they need to follow a different path or they may end up like the Sharks.

The real question is, what is all in? Basically everything not on the current roster? Based on the current defense performance I'm not convinced there is an obvious spend-it-all addition that makes them much better without pulling working pieces out of the lineup to make that upgrade. Who does that when the club is 2nd overall? And Dubas is already reluctant to do major surgery when the club isn't doing great.

So while I am pretty comfortable with anything that increases their chances being on the table I don't see an "all-in with everything" get. A more dynamic top 6 forward could make a mark and the bar outside of the big 4 is pretty low for that. The big cost only comes up if you aren't renting and maybe want some retention as well.

For me, it's all about sustainable program building. So if you can turn a 1st, Knies and Niemela or whatever you can piece together into a "Big 5" player who is a core contributing member for a number of years, sign me up.

If we're going to get Nick Foligno 2.0, Owen Nolan 2.0. Eh, we don't need to go down that road.

 

[budzz]

I think Mr. Fox reads HF boards lol...

Why the Maple Leafs must be more aggressive than ever at trade deadline

 

[Fogelhund]

I think Mr. Fox reads HF boards lol...

Why the Maple Leafs must be more aggressive than ever at trade deadline

He basically listed everyone who might be available.

 

[tom leafers]

lol this board man

 

[Leafsfan74]

Since the Montreal series, this team should be in "all-in" mode. Dubas has tried, but with some reservation or internal debate/restrictions it would seem. I'd wager it works out if he strikes this year.

I didn't question his pickup of Foligno, I think it was a trade a knowledgeable GM makes and if not for Tavares injury 10 minutes in they probably beat the Habs. Anyone complaining of the price when he became injured is a revisionist, from ESPN to Canadian media the consensus was that the Leafs were big winners at TDL.

This team is deeper, more prepared, playing a more committed game Matthews in particular seems unconcerned about anything but winning. They also have cap space if Muzzin is out until at least the playoffs.
He has added Bunting, Gio and looks like a wizard for going for the goalie tandem which I thought made sense conceptually, but not with their injury history. I didn't like the risk, but Dubas, knock on wood, has hit a grand slam. They've been a great pair, and Murray oozes "I care about winning". Benn was a strong pickup and Timmins is no slouch.

YES, you go for it. Cup teams are built before the deadline but many are put over the edge at the deadline, no sport encourages this more than the NHL. Google is your friend if you don't believe me.

How far would I go? It all depends on the players.

Many believe we are designing a team similar to T.B, but I'd prefer more of a NJ Devils team from 1995-2003 (ironically built by Lamorello). Complete dominance on the defensive side and a HOF goalie, except this Leaf team has far more firepower. Those Devils had Gamers. Not always flashy but always highly competitive and able to beat very good teams they were supposed to lose to. Internally, Brodeur on out, they had no doubts.

I'd exchange a D Man for another physical rock. I'd exchange multiple forwards for depth and top tier, hard nosed talent. I'd trade prospects for value/term. You make a splash at the deadline and serve notice to the team, "we hear you, we believe in you and we are going for a Cup".

If for some reason MLSE won't allow him the freedom to do so, Dubas should pursue other options because this is the perfect scenario to bring in the Gamers for cost. No self respecting franchise would deny themselves the opportunity.

Win or lose, better to be the yang rather than the ying.

 

[Puckstuff]

They have been going all in, they just aren't very good at it.

I know every year feels different but with the leafs being 2nd in goals against, having good goaltenders, it appears we could be a ROR type of add from taking the next step.

Also TB has lost their entire 3rd line they aren’t as good as 2020 and 2021.

I say go for it as well.

 

[francis246]

Since the Montreal series, this team should be in "all-in" mode. Dubas has tried, but with some reservation or internal debate/restrictions it would seem. I'd wager it works out if he strikes this year.

I didn't question his pickup of Foligno, I think it was a trade a knowledgeable GM makes and if not for Tavares injury 10 minutes in they probably beat the Habs. Anyone complaining of the price when he became injured is a revisionist, from ESPN to Canadian media the consensus was that the Leafs were big winners at TDL.

This team is deeper, more prepared, playing a more committed game Matthews in particular seems unconcerned about anything but winning. They also have cap space if Muzzin is out until at least the playoffs.
He has added Bunting, Gio and looks like a wizard for going for the goalie tandem which I thought made sense conceptually, but not with their injury history. I didn't like the risk, but Dubas, knock on wood, has hit a grand slam. They've been a great pair, and Murray oozes "I care about winning". Benn was a strong pickup and Timmins is no slouch.

YES, you go for it. Cup teams are built before the deadline but many are put over the edge at the deadline, no sport encourages this more than the NHL. Google is your friend if you don't believe me.

How far would I go? It all depends on the players.

Many believe we are designing a team similar to T.B, but I'd prefer more of a NJ Devils team from 1995-2003 (ironically built by Lamorello). Complete dominance on the defensive side and a HOF goalie, except this Leaf team has far more firepower. Those Devils had Gamers. Not always flashy but always highly competitive and able to beat very good teams they were supposed to lose to. Internally, Brodeur on out, they had no doubts.

I'd exchange a D Man for another physical rock. I'd exchange multiple forwards for depth and top tier, hard nosed talent. I'd trade prospects for value/term. You make a splash at the deadline and serve notice to the team, "we hear you, we believe in you and we are going for a Cup".

If for some reason MLSE won't allow him the freedom to do so, Dubas should pursue other options because this is the perfect scenario to bring in the Gamers for cost. No self respecting franchise would deny themselves the opportunity.

Win or lose, better to be the yang rather than the ying.

Foligno came to the Leafs injured, in hindsight it was a horrible trade. They didn’t do enough research.

Also the target should have been Taylor Hall that season. I still can’t believe we didn’t pull the trigger on Hall. We were in on both.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They have been going all in, they just aren't very good at it.

That's not true. Florida trading 1st/1st/Tippet (10th OA prospect)+ for rentals would be classified as going "all in". Trading a couple 2nd round picks for a guy you re-sign is not going "all in".

Foligno came to the Leafs injured

No he didn't. He got injured while here. I don't know how this myth persists when Foligno has literally disputed it himself.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Foligno came to the Leafs injured, in hindsight it was a horrible trade. They didn’t do enough research.

Also the target should have been Taylor Hall that season. I still can’t believe we didn’t pull the trigger on Hall. We were in on both.

I am.glad we.didn't pick up Hall. All the best to him.

 

[francis246]

I am.glad we.didn't pick up Hall. All the best to him.

To each their own. He would have solved our 2LW problems easily.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Imo to retain Matthews we should do it.

I'm talking scortched earth all in, keep Knies, but everyone else is on the table including all of our draft picks 1-7 rounds next 2 years. The possibility of losing Matthews is too much for me, I would personally shoot for a 1st+2nd+2nd+prospect for Tarasenko and ROR.

What do you guys think? And if you want to go all in, who do you want to go after?

Which one are you:

All in Toews?

Or

All in Kane?

 

[egd27]

Robertson can fetch a good haul, I think a lot of teams look at him and think he's a top 6 guy on their team. He's just not a fit on the leafs. Like I said, I'd move any prospect/pick not named Knies and hope for the best!

What makes him a top 6 guy on another team when he can't seem to cut it playing with a couple of guys like JT & MM?

 

[francis246]

What makes him a top 6 guy on another team when he can't seem to cut it playing with a couple of guys like JT & MM?

I don’t know, sports are weird. Trevor Moore wasn’t a top 6 forward with the leafs, he struggled to make the line up. Now he’s a top 6 forward with the Kings and getting paid $4.3 mill starting next season.

Sometimes you need a change of scenery or system to flourish.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yes, but it has to be calculated. This core on its own is not good enough to win. I don’t get how people can watch the last 7 years and think that they can do it. It’s pure delusion at this point.

They need to add someone of quality. So it’s on the pro scouting staff and Dubas to identify the correct players to add. Now here’s the kicker. If you find deals like Tampa does for young effective players who can be resigned for cheap. You do that deal and give up assets.

If it’s for a rental don’t give up the first or Knies.

I think the leafs need to do everything they can to upgrade the roster.

The only untouchable from a futures perspective is Knies. Everything else should be available for trade if needed.

I think what it is with this core is that every year there is a feeling that the goaltending lets them down, especially last year given that Campbell was awful for basically 5 straight months.

And let's be honest goaltending has been a let down for them come playoff time.

I don't think they will get that slack from the fanbase this time because for the most part both guys have been spectacular

If the goaltending keeps this up and they still don't advance that's going to be it.

I also disagree about no rental additions.

If the blues sell ROR You do whatever you have to to add him.

 

[ACC1224]

I don’t know, sports are weird. Trevor Moore wasn’t a top 6 forward with the leafs, he struggled to make the line up. Now he’s a top 6 forward with the Kings and getting paid $4.3 mill starting next season.

Sometimes you need a change of scenery or system to flourish.

It also took him years to become that.

 

[Confucius]

We’ve been going all in. So other than trading 1sts sure spend more>.. how? Anyway you can.

 

[Auston Escobar]

If all in means 1st plus prospect not named Knies for someone like Meier, Kane, Horvat or ROR, count me in. We’ve wasted a 1st for way less and it feels like the year where actual game changers are available, lots of teams might be embracing the tank this year. Stars have aligned facing Tampa again, they don’t have their 1st in 23 or 24, so they’re not upgrading.

Plus it’s not inconceivable we could recoup a pick or two for Engvall/Kerfoot (with retention) if another contender has depth issues. I trust Dubas/scouting to hit in the later rounds.

 

[Auston Escobar]

I think Matt Dumba could also be a sneaky good depth add. He’s having an absolutely shit year by his standards, but he’d be a third pairing guy for us and I’d love to have him to nuke Kuch or Stamkos in the first round.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't think it necessarily needs to be framed as an extreme of "all in" or not.

Between this tdl and the 2024 tdl, the Leafs definitely should be biased towards taking a "win now"/buying perspective than a conservative one. But I don't think that means the team should go out of it's way to trade all of its picks and prospects

With that said, I'd be VERY reluctant to trade certain assets like Knies (who I view as the closest thing to an untouchable prospect for the team). And I definitely wouldn't trade a guy like Lily or likely even Sandin for a veteran replacement.

At this point I'm much less attached to draft picks (at least those prior to the 2025 draft).

 

[Ciao]

No. Maximise kicks at the can. Odds of winning a cup while this team has had been in contending mode have been ~5 - 12% per year. This will be year seven. Going all in so one year's odds go from, say, 12% to 13% at the cost of reducing future years back to single digits is exactly what we should not do.

This is the right idea.

Its a little like sailing -- just always be ready for when the wind blows in your direction.