Do You Believe We should Go All In Over the Next 2 Years?

[DarkKnight]

Not even close

Dude we’ve had 8 picks the last two years and no first rounders, wake up.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Dude we’ve had 8 picks the last two years and no first rounders, wake up.

They haven't traded a single prospect in 3 years you can't be all in and not trade a single prospect in 3 years

 

[DarkKnight]

They haven't traded a single prospect in 3 years you can't be all in and not trade a single prospect in 3 years

I’d be more concerned if Dubas wasn’t all in wasting away key years. Strange argument. What the hell was he waiting for?

 

[ACC1224]

I’d be more concerned if Dubas wasn’t all in wasting away key years. Strange argument. What the hell was he waiting for?

Bolded sums up the entire thread.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I’d be more concerned if Dubas wasn’t all in wasting away key years. Strange argument. What the hell was he waiting for?

That's a good question, I think this is the year we see him go all in, truly all in, I think he has to his franchise center needs an extension and so does his coach and himself surely he can't afford to lose in round 1 again

You don't understand the cap differences in the other leagues. Once you do, you'll understand why they are meaningless to compare to. Stick to hockey.

94 Rangers

Just because you don't like the examples doesn't mean they don't count.

 

[Buds17]

So, a Stanley Cup if this approach works to its full potential...or another rebuild in the event of failure? They'll obviously continue to try and push forward while Matthews remains under his current contract. They can't leave the possibility of surrounding him with little if they wish to re-sign him though.

 

[ACC1224]

That's a good question, I think this is the year we see him go all in, truly all in, I think he has to his franchise center needs an extension and so does his coach and himself surely he can't afford to lose in round 1 again



Just because you don't like the examples doesn't mean they don't count.

...and just because you're in denial about the cba differences in other leagues doesn't mean they don't exist.

 

[Jmo89]

This year is the first year that I've thought this core should go all in. IMO they have a unique situation with Muzzin likely LTIRetiring and cap space for the trade deadline. They're also benefiting from a cheap Gio for the next couple years.

The pandemic really messed with the cap and it also looks like that's going to fix itself over the next few years as well, which will help absorb some raises.

I think this team is good enough to win in the playoffs, but they have one significant hole (2LW) and some serious issues between the ears. If they do go "all-in" it can't be for a guy like Foligno. It needs to be someone who has won in the playoffs with tangible results and can score in high pressure moments.

I know who I want though I know many disagree with me.

TLDR: they should go for it.

 

[horner]

Keep our 1st rd pk
the 2023 is supposed to be the best draft since 2015

Keep Knies we have always been looking for a forward with size a scoring touch and gets involved physically. We need to see what we have in this player.

If the organization believes that Niemela is going to be better than Sandin then offer him up in a trade. Especially with the emergence of Timmins.

I don't think it will happen but I would trade Engval and kerfoot.

We still need a top six forward someone who plays a physical game with a scoring touch.

A physical dman with size.

Boston and TB both play a physical game on the edge of being dirty.

 

[TheProspector]

No. Maximise kicks at the can. Odds of winning a cup while this team has had been in contending mode have been ~5 - 12% per year. This will be year seven. Going all in so one year's odds go from, say, 12% to 13% at the cost of reducing future years back to single digits is exactly what we should not do.

 

[francis246]

Yes, but it has to be calculated. This core on its own is not good enough to win. I don’t get how people can watch the last 7 years and think that they can do it. It’s pure delusion at this point.

They need to add someone of quality. So it’s on the pro scouting staff and Dubas to identify the correct players to add. Now here’s the kicker. If you find deals like Tampa does for young effective players who can be resigned for cheap. You do that deal and give up assets.

If it’s for a rental don’t give up the first or Knies.

I think the leafs need to do everything they can to upgrade the roster.

The only untouchable from a futures perspective is Knies. Everything else should be available for trade if needed.

 

[francis246]

There was no cap in 2003/2004. Going all in is much more restrictive now and they have traded picks for players.

It’s really not, I keep mentioning it: Tampa goes all in every single year. Why? They trust their scouting staff. These guys draft so well, they hit on 4th and 5th and the develop properly. Every year they graduate 2-3 guys from Syracuse who step right in and are contributors.

If you believe in your system and ability to draft in the late rounds, trading picks and prospects doesn’t sting as much.

Other teams have this philosophy as wel and they are always in the dance. Pittsburgh operates the same way.

 

[AvroArrow]

Said it multiple times, this is the year to go all in for a few reasons

#1 There is no clear juggernaut like last years Avalanche, the cup is anyones

#2 The team is playing elite level hockey, commitment to defence from everyone. They are playing the right way, this isn't just a team having a good amount of points, they are playing the way championship teams play

#3 we have futures and picks available

#4 There are some great players available

#5 We have cap

#6 For the first time ever with this core, we have a legitimate #1 goalie who is reliable and has championship pedigree. (Andersen was trash under pressure)

#7 Our "rivals" if we can call them that, have gotten weaker while we have gotten better. Boston is still a very dangerous team and a favorite for the cup, but as the season goes on, I expect Bergeron/Marchand to slow down a little bit given their age.

#8 Even looking at last year, we were the significantly better team in round 1, got absolutely f***ed by some huge non calls in both games 6 and 7. I doubt we'll see officiating that bad again in this years playoffs

#9 It's about f***ing time we give Matthews and Co. an all in best shot to win the cup

 

[ACC1224]

It’s really not, I keep mentioning it: Tampa goes all in every single year. Why? They trust their scouting staff. These guys draft so well, they hit on 4th and 5th and the develop properly. Every year they graduate 2-3 guys from Syracuse who step right in and are contributors.

If you believe in your system and ability to draft in the late rounds, trading picks and prospects doesn’t sting as much.

Other teams have this philosophy as wel and they are always in the dance. Pittsburgh operates the same way.

You still need to find the cap space.
How do you draft well if you trade all your picks 'going all in'?

 

[Gary Nylund]

They have been going all in, they just aren't very good at it.

LOL.

...and just because you're in denial about the cba differences in other leagues doesn't mean they don't exist.

Hilarious to see you mocking other people's opinions when your take is by far, the strangest ITT. We have all our 1st round picks going forward, we've kept all our top prospects and the only time we've traded a significant asset for a rental is in the trade for Foligno a couple of years ago. The fact that you can sum this up as "they have been going all in" suggests that you haven't the first clue as to what the phrase "all in" means.

No. Maximise kicks at the can. Odds of winning a cup while this team has had been in contending mode have been ~5 - 12% per year. This will be year seven. Going all in so one year's odds go from, say, 12% to 13% at the cost of reducing future years back to single digits is exactly what we should not do.

This guy gets it.

 

[francis246]

You still need to find the cap space.

We have it. Muzzin is not playing again this year. That’s 4-5 million right there and Kerfoot can be moved to help with cap. And I’m okay with paying another asset to have a third team broker extra retention.

There’s enough available. There are so many options.

JVR at 50% retained would be the best option IMO. Big scoring winger, expiring deal, has experience playing in Toronto. Net front presence on PP, won’t cost you much to acquire him.

Hell I’d even take a stab at Brock Boeser. Scoring winger who would look great next to Tavares and has some term left. Kerfoot or Engvall would have to be involved but that might be a good target.

We need to stop making excuses. We have the assets, we have the cap space. This team deserves an honest shot with the best possible additions the management group can give them.

 

[Martin Skoula]

If you want to hang onto Knies, what are you including in "scorched earth" that is desirable for other teams to give up their quality assets? (Keep in mind there will be other bidders for these players)

Does "everyone else" include roster players other than the usual Kerfoot and Engvall offers? You know, the players that other teams may covet.

Out of the contenders based on the standings so far this year only NJ and maybe Carolina have their 23 1st round pick and a deeper pool than us. Boston and Pitts have their picks but they have very shallow prospect pools and aging rosters they may not want to go all-in with unless they really want to get Bergeron another cup. Tampa, Colorado, and Florida blew their all-in assets last year, Vegas is 14 mil deep into LTIR and has gone big game hunting a few years in a row now, and the Jets have PLD walking soon and a likely retool with expensive older pieces like Wheeler falling off to deal with.

Not that we have a ton of high value prospects outside of Knies if we're talking about making a huge move for someone younger with term, but if we're talking about pure rentals like a Kane/O'Rielly we can part with Robertson/Niemela level prospects more comfortably than the other contenders in our situation can. We also have a ton of bottom-6 ELC depth ready on the Marlies so a Hirvonen/Robertson/Niemela trade doesn't really make us miss a beat the way it might for someone with a shallow pool.

I don't see any reason why 23 1st + Robertson/Niemela + picks for 3rd party retention wouldn't be one of the most competitive offers for a pure rental this deadline, it's the strongest draft in a while and half our competition can only offer a 24 or 25 1st + similarly mediocre prospect. Of the teams that still have their 23 1sts, NJ, Bruins, Jets, and Penguins seem like they're in more of a position to go for a Chychrun/extended Meier than a Kane/O'Rielly. Carolina is the bidder to worry about IMO and they seem like they'll be fighting Colorado for a 2C like Horvat, whoever loses might drive up the price for O'Rielly.

Our worst-case plan B if we get outbid on our targets by the few teams with the assets to go all-in is better than most years too, 2nd + 3rd probably gets you 2 years of Henrique at 1.5M instead of a Plekanec rental.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We have it. Muzzin is not playing again this year. That’s 4-5 million right there and Kerfoot can be moved to help with cap. And I’m okay with paying another asset to have a third team broker extra retention.

There’s enough available. There are so many options.

JVR at 50% retained would be the best option IMO. Big scoring winger, expiring deal, has experience playing in Toronto. Net front presence on PP, won’t cost you much to acquire him.

Hell I’d even take a stab at Brock Boeser. Scoring winger who would look great next to Tavares and has some term left. Kerfoot or Engvall would have to be involved but that might be a good target.

We need to stop making excuses. We have the assets, we have the cap space. This team deserves an honest shot with the best possible additions the management group can give them.

What do you think Boeser would cost? That's the kind of move I can get behind in principle as he has term left but it feels like it might cost a ton! JVR is an intriguing possibility, not sure how he's playing lately but if he's still decent and would cost less than a first, yeah interesting.

 

[ACC1224]

We have it. Muzzin is not playing again this year. That’s 4-5 million right there and Kerfoot can be moved to help with cap. And I’m okay with paying another asset to have a third team broker extra retention.

There’s enough available. There are so many options.

JVR at 50% retained would be the best option IMO. Big scoring winger, expiring deal, has experience playing in Toronto. Net front presence on PP, won’t cost you much to acquire him.

Hell I’d even take a stab at Brock Boeser. Scoring winger who would look great next to Tavares and has some term left. Kerfoot or Engvall would have to be involved but that might be a good target.

We need to stop making excuses. We have the assets, we have the cap space. This team deserves an honest shot with the best possible additions the management group can give them.

My post you initially quoted was in reference to prior years not this season.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Out of the contenders based on the standings so far this year only NJ and maybe Carolina have their 23 1st round pick and a deeper pool than us. Boston and Pitts have their picks but they have very shallow prospect pools and aging rosters they may not want to go all-in with unless they really want to get Bergeron another cup. Tampa, Colorado, and Florida blew their all-in assets last year, Vegas is 14 mil deep into LTIR and has gone big game hunting a few years in a row now, and the Jets have PLD walking soon and a likely retool with expensive older pieces like Wheeler falling off to deal with.

Not that we have a ton of high value prospects outside of Knies if we're talking about making a huge move for someone younger with term, but if we're talking about pure rentals like a Kane/O'Rielly we can part with Robertson/Niemela level prospects more comfortably than the other contenders in our situation can. We also have a ton of bottom-6 ELC depth ready on the Marlies so a Hirvonen/Robertson/Niemela trade doesn't really make us miss a beat the way it might for someone with a shallow pool.

I don't see any reason why 23 1st + Robertson/Niemela + picks for 3rd party retention wouldn't be one of the most competitive offers for a pure rental this deadline, it's the strongest draft in a while and half our competition can only offer a 24 or 25 1st + similarly mediocre prospect. Of the teams that still have their 23 1sts, NJ, Bruins, Jets, and Penguins seem like they're in more of a position to go for a Chychrun/extended Meier than a Kane/O'Rielly. Carolina is the bidder to worry about IMO and they seem like they'll be fighting Colorado for a 2C like Horvat, whoever loses might drive up the price for O'Rielly.

Our worst-case plan B if we get outbid on our targets by the few teams with the assets to go all-in is better than most years too, 2nd + 3rd probably gets you 2 years of Henrique at 1.5M instead of a Plekanec rental.

Niemela is our only prospect on D that we can reasonably expect to have an impact over the next 5 years. Giving him up plus a 1st in what is supposed to be a strong draft for a rental, no way am I doing that. Even Robertson and a 1st would be tough. I hate rentals though so that's JMHO.

 

[francis246]

What do you think Boeser would cost? That's the kind of move I can get behind in principle as he has term left but it feels like it might cost a ton! JVR is an intriguing possibility, not sure how he's playing lately but if he's still decent and would cost less than a first, yeah interesting.

JVR, is just under point per game this year. 13GP, 12P. 5 goals, 7 assists. He's looked amazing since returning from injury.

Boeser would cost quite a bit. I'm thinking Kerfoot/Engvall, 1st in either 2023 or 2024 + Niemela or Robertson. But even then, that might not be enough. But might be worth it. Scoring winger with 2 more years after this at $6.5 million. If you could get Vancouver to retain 2 million and bring that down to $4.5 million that is a cap hit we could swallow.

 

[Judas Tavares]

No. Regarding Matthews, you either work to insulate/support a Matthews era v2 if he is re-signed, or you work to begin a rebuild immediately without him. Otherwise, if you find yourself in the situation where you deal away all your futures and also lose him, you are caught with your pants down.

You sign him, you add x years of his contract to the current window. You don't, you move on immediately and hope there is at least some form of pipeline to do so.

 

[Gary Nylund]

JVR, is just under point per game this year. 13GP, 12P. 5 goals, 7 assists. He's looked amazing since returning from injury.

Boeser would cost quite a bit. I'm thinking Kerfoot/Engvall, 1st in either 2023 or 2024 + Niemela or Robertson. But even then, that might not be enough. But might be worth it. Scoring winger with 2 more years after this at $6.5 million. If you could get Vancouver to retain 2 million and bring that down to $4.5 million that is a cap hit we could swallow.

Wow, if JVR looks that good they might want a 1st for him.

Off the top of my head, if we could get Boeser at 4.5 for the 2024 first, Robertson and Kerfoot/Engvall I would do that in an instant. Not sure that would be enough though.

 

[francis246]

No. Regarding Matthews, you either work to insulate/support a Matthews era v2 if he is re-signed, or you work to begin a rebuild immediately without him. Otherwise, if you find yourself in the situation where deal away your futures and also lose him, you are caught with your pants down.

You sign him, you add x years of his contract to the current window. You don't, you move on immediately and hope there is at least some form of pipeline to do so.

why can't both happen? I think people think going all in means trading every prospect you own. If the leafs trade a first rounder and robertson for example this year? How much of an impact will that have on the team moving forward? probably not as devastating as people are making it out to seem. Matthews doesn't give a damn if the team trades first rounders. What he cares about is, what is management going to do to help him win now. If he is your guy for the present and the future, you need to start winning now.

Isn't the Dubas era of drafting good? So if we move on from 1 prospect and a first rounder this year, we will be fine. It's not going to cripple the organization at all.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Niemela is our only prospect on D that we can reasonably expect to have an impact over the next 5 years. Giving him up plus a 1st in what is supposed to be a strong draft for a rental, no way am I doing that. Even Robertson and a 1st would be tough. I hate rentals though so that's JMHO.

I don't really see him playing above 3RD in the next 5 years, Liljegren seems to have the 1RD spot locked up for the foreseeable future and it'll take Niemela a lot of seasoning to be able to replace Brodie's minutes. If Timmins shakes off his injury problems and solidifies himself as a 2RD that's another slot gone.

If Niemela exceeds expectations and ends up being a 2nd pair RD in the next 2 years it would sting, but we can replace his "meets expectations" contributions with a league minimum deal like Benn for the next 2-3 years pretty comfortably imo. The realistic case is that he needs 1-2 years of AHL before stepping in to a sheltered 3rd pairing role, look at how long it took Liljegren and he was bigger and had a more pro-ready skillset. Even then guys like Kral, Villeneuve, and whatever no-name guys the Marlies turn into viable NHL pros in the next two years would be strong competition for that 3RD spot.

I agree on most normal rentals though, I'd only be willing to pay up for a proven winner and difference maker like Kane or O'Rielly. No Folignos or Chiarots.