Do you believe in Frederik Andersen? Would you re-sign?

[Gallagbi]

0gl Games (2-0-0):

Campbell: 1 (33%) (1-0-0)
Hutchinson: 1 (20%) (1-0-0)
Andersen: 0 (0%) (n/a)

1gl or less (8-0-0):

Campbell: 1 (33%) (1-0-0)
Hutchinson: 2 (40%) (2-0-0)
Andersen: 5 (28%) (5-0-0)

2 goals or less (12-2-0):

Campbell: 3 (100%) (3-0-0)
Hutchinson: 2 (40%) (2-0-0)
Andersen: 9 (50%) (7-2-0)

3 goals or less (17-4-0):

Campbell: 3 (100%) (3-0-0)
Hutchinson: 5 (100%) (3-2-0)
Andersen: 13 (72%) (11-2-0)

More than 3 goals (1-2-2):

Campbell: 0 (0%) (n/a)
Hutchinson: 0 (0%) (n/a)
Andersen: 5 (28%) (1-2-2)

What do the % represent? Percentage of starts?

 

[ChickenMcNugget]

If you watched the Tampa series against Columbus, it was very much the same. It took Tampa 4 OT's to beat Korpisalo in the first game and they never were able to beat 1. Columbus by more than 1 goal despite having games where they had literally twice as many shots. They could only score 1 goal in the 2nd game and lost by 2.

They were stifled a lot by Columbus as well, especially early on. But Vasilevsky outplayed Korpisalo and Merzilkins in the end. Andersen did not. In the first and last game, where we were shut out, Andersen gave up weak goals and then Columbus just sat back on their lead and tried to clog up our offense instead of having to push us. We had to push through 5 bodies consistently, and no matter how good your offensive team is, that is not easy. Especially when at the same time, Korpisalo is making ridiculous point-blank saves and stopping everything that comes his way. Andersen, meanwhile, can't stop a muffin shots from the top of the circle along the board with literally no traffic.

2. Our offense earned the benefit of the doubt. They were one of the best offensive teams in the league and were still generating a bunch of prime scoring chances that Korpisalo had to stop. Andersen lost that benefit of the doubt by being one of the worst starters in the league that year, despite a much improved defense in front of him, having a tendency to collapse in tense situations even when he was considered a top starter, and always getting outperformed by the goalie at the other end of the ice in the playoffs. Against Columbus, he couldn't even play as well as the defense in front of him, while the goalie on the other end played even better than his defense, which was also quite strong.

This year, it is no different. Outside of a couple of games, he has just played as well as the defense in front of him and Cup winning goalies need to be better than that. Fortunately for us, our defense is playing about as well as our offense right now, so that is good enough for us to be winning most games. 3. It won't be enough in the playoffs unless our offense fires on all cylinders every game, but that has never happened even for the most talented offensive teams. There are games, or even series, 4. where our goalie is going to need to carry us and I don't think Andersen has shown he can do that enough since his second Game 7 collapse against Boston.

I hope Andersen can do it for us this year, but he is by far my biggest concern with this roster right now. There are places we can improve on our offense and maybe even our defense (although I probably wouldn't touch our defense), but the biggest question mark by far will be Andersen and if it were possible to maybe quell those concerns, then the Leafs should probably look at it. For the second straight year, we are getting below average goaltending from Andersen.

1. Hmm so are you saying that TBL offence generated twice as many shots as CBJ and won their games. So did Vasilevsky still outduel Korpisalo? Are you saying that maybe the offence can win games surely not.

2. What? They got shut out 2 of the last 3 games ? What kind of logic is this ? Who cares about scoring chances they have to score they didnt get paid 10M+ for leading in adv stats. I mean if they were to get shutout again i would be slightly mad but maybe thats just me.

3. How about the fire on one cylinder for like game 7 ? too much to ask for them to not get shut out.

4. Why ? The offence should carry. That is literally how this team is built to work.

Also, just for reference Vasilevsky played 5 games against the CBJ and his sv% is 930. Andersen played 7 games and his sv% was 936. Not saying Andersen is better than Vasilevsky but if the goalie is performing at 920-940 that is good enough to win games. But at this point its getting tiring to argue against made up terms like cant make "critical" saves, cant win "critical" games, "cup winning" goalies or whatever.

Andersen so far has been winning a lot more games than he is losing. And to my delight the backup situation is also looking great. It makes no sense to create a risk to find a solution to a problem that likely isnt even there.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I’d have him back as long as he understood he is platooning with Campbell and would be paid as such (sorry Freddie you aren’t getting a big raise)
He is still a top 10 goalie in the league but his mental makeup leaves a little to be desired...similarly to Nylander it seems like he checks out from time to time and when he does he genuinely doesn’t give a sht as to what’s happening and why

Like I said I’d keep him if he’s willing to forget the raise and probably get paid less

 

[Confucius]

I could see someone giving him 6x5 similar to Markstrom are we willing to do that?

hell no

 

[McSnypsky]

hell no

That was kinda my point, there are teams out there like Edmonton that just want a guy who is steady enough help them get to the playoffs, they might not have the cap space but there are teams that might do it. Hell Seattle might think it's a good idea. I'm for the idea of trying out Woll with Campbell if he can stay healthy, I can't remember the last homegrown Leafs Goalie, I think it was Sparks; Leafs need to do better in this area!

 

[123offtheglass]

They way he's played I'd think less than 5m per for a max of 4-5 years. He's not playing as well as Markstrom (5x6m) or Lehner (5mx5) prior to their deal; his recent play has been closer to that of Braden Holtby (4.3mx2) who has a cup and some really good years behind him. If he wants to test for more in the open market then let him go. If he doesn't get back to playing the way he can or has before and Campbell continues to play well (while enough given games), I'd like to see them go after a cheaper short term 1a/1b goalie to create a tandem with Campbell (like Ullmark for instance).

Idealistically he & Campbell perform well, hopefully win a cup or make a deep run (with Andersen likely playing all or almost all of the playoff games), have himself price out of Toronto with a capable but unproven Campbell remaining with a cheaper tandem situation next season, where hopefully one of those 2 goalies can take the next step. That or Campbell just takes over this season if he continues to play well and is given the chance.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Goalie A lets in the first 2 shots of the game 30 seconds in, the opponent then plays a trap game and throws 28 muffins from the blueline on net - he has a .933%.

Goalie B faces 15 shots because his team traps all game and allows 1 goal with 1 second left in the game - he also has a .933%.

You would say these goalies played equally well right? If Team B took an additional 5 unscreened shots from the blueline, you'd say goalie A actually played a better game, right?

Nope. What I will say is that while SV% doesn't always tell the whole story, it is the single best measurement for goalies we have. Also, over the 5 games against CLB the eye test backs up the numbers which say Andersen played well. And I stand by my earlier statement - in a PO series I'll take a .936 SV% every time as most cups are won with less, sometimes much less.

Also this fantasy scenario is pretty extreme. I'm not sure Andersen's ever let in the first two shots of a game and someone showed the numbers recently that showed he doesn't even in let in the first shot at some abnormal rate. It's sad that people are still spouting this false narrative, why are we so anxious to tear down one of our own even when they play well?

For reference, our team SV% is currently .917 and we're killing it. If we were at .936, can you imagine where we'd be at? And if we were at .936 and were losing then I'm pretty sure the problem would be somewhere else, not the guys playing in net. 917-.918 is where Freddie was at his first 3 years with us and while his numbers went south last season he raised his level of play in the playoffs, I wouldn't mind of all our players did that. I don't have full confidence in him and I would like to find someone better but give the guy credit where credit is due - last year he was great in the playoffs.

I’d have him back as long as he understood he is platooning with Campbell and would be paid as such (sorry Freddie you aren’t getting a big raise)
He is still a top 10 goalie in the league but his mental makeup leaves a little to be desired...similarly to Nylander it seems like he checks out from time to time and when he does he genuinely doesn’t give a sht as to what’s happening and why

Like I said I’d keep him if he’s willing to forget the raise and probably get paid less

Id have him back if one more thing was true - we can't find anyone better.

I don't see him as a top 10 goalie any more. I do think his mental makeup is fine and he gives a sht all the time though.

That was kinda my point, there are teams out there like Edmonton that just want a guy who is steady enough help them get to the playoffs, they might not have the cap space but there are teams that might do it. Hell Seattle might think it's a good idea. I'm for the idea of trying out Woll with Campbell if he can stay healthy, I can't remember the last homegrown Leafs Goalie, I think it was Sparks; Leafs need to do better in this area!

The idea of starting next season with two goalies who have less than 100 NHL games between them seems like a terrible idea. Do that and there's a good chance that people would be calling for Dubas to be fired before the season even started and that discontent would grow into a roar before we're even one month into the season.

They way he's played I'd think less than 5m per for a max of 4-5 years. He's not playing as well as Markstrom (5x6m) or Lehner (5mx5) prior to their deal; his recent play has been closer to that of Braden Holtby (4.3mx2) who has a cup and some really good years behind him. If he wants to test for more in the open market then let him go. If he doesn't get back to playing the way he can or has before and Campbell continues to play well (while enough given games), I'd like to see them go after a cheaper short term 1a/1b goalie to create a tandem with Campbell (like Ullmark for instance).

Idealistically he & Campbell perform well, hopefully win a cup or make a deep run (with Andersen likely playing all or almost all of the playoff games), have himself price out of Toronto with a capable but unproven Campbell remaining with a cheaper tandem situation next season, where hopefully one of those 2 goalies can take the next step. That or Campbell just takes over this season if he continues to play well and is given the chance.

I don't see any team giving him that kind of term at this point. 2-3 years would be my guess and if we can't find anyone better, I wouldn't mind having him back for two years myself. Even three years makes me a bit nervous at this point.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Trade him while you can still get something for him. He has no future in Toronto. By now everyone knows he's a playoff choker.

 

[Dekes For Days]

SV% is SV% irrespective of the number of chances and .936 IMHO is impressive.

You keep going off about his save percentage, but you refuse to actually consider what that save percentage means. The exact same save percentage can mean different things about how a goalie performed. In this case, multiple things benefited Andersen's save percentage:

1. Columbus was not a very good offensive team (28th in GF/60 and 28th in xGF/60).
2. Columbus was not a very good shooting team (29th in SH%).
3. We played very well in front of Andersen defensively in the playoffs (2nd in 5v5 xGA/60, 3rd in PK xGA/60).
4. The series featured very few penalties, and thus very little special teams time where goals are scored at a higher rate.

0.936 is still pretty good despite these things, but clinging desperately to the number with zero context of what it means isn't helpful. It should also be noted that it was lower-danger shots he was struggling with and letting in, and some of the goals were incredibly deflating, which is a concern, no matter how much you wish to dismiss it.

Or offence messed up so many scoring chances (Tavares missing the empty net being the most glaring example)

You keep saying this, but it's not true, which is why you keep pointing to that exact same singular occurrence every single time. We got many point blank prime scoring chance shots off. I'm not sure why it's so hard for you to just admit that Korpisalo played well.

the numbers their goalies put up are a bit misleading.

Do you not see how ironic this statement is after going on and on about 0.936 this, 0.936 that?

 

[ToneDog]

You keep going off about his save percentage, but you refuse to actually consider what that save percentage means. The exact same save percentage can mean different things about how a goalie performed. In this case, multiple things benefited Andersen's save percentage:

1. Columbus was not a very good offensive team (28th in GF/60 and 28th in xGF/60).
2. Columbus was not a very good shooting team (29th in SH%).
3. We played very well in front of Andersen defensively in the playoffs (2nd in 5v5 xGA/60, 3rd in PK xGA/60).
4. The series featured very few penalties, and thus very little special teams time where goals are scored at a higher rate.

0.936 is still pretty good despite these things, but clinging desperately to the number with zero context of what it means isn't helpful. It should also be noted that it was lower-danger shots he was struggling with and letting in, and some of the goals were incredibly deflating, which is a concern, no matter how much you wish to dismiss it.

You keep saying this, but it's not true, which is why you keep pointing to that exact same singular occurrence every single time. We got many point blank prime scoring chance shots off. I'm not sure why it's so hard for you to just admit that Korpisalo played well.

Do you not see how ironic this statement is after going on and on about 0.936 this, 0.936 that?

Very impressive Dekes, I believe Andy is the only player you have not defended to the death. So what should Dubas do with 5 weeks to the TDL ? Stand pat and watch Andy blow another series or should he move him and find a better option ?? He is a UFA afterall so he walks for nothing. Let's not forget that Dubas stood pat on D and passed on Bogo at the TDL and then had to bring in Marincin when Muzzin was injured.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I believe Andy is the only player you have not defended to the death.

I don't "defend to the death". I point out facts when necessary, especially when a player is being irrationally bashed, and I have similarly defended Andersen at times, but Andersen is also consistently the one on our team that gets more credit and praise than he has earned.

So what should our great Dubas do with 5 weeks to the TDL ? Stand pat and watch Andy blow another series or should he move him and find a better option ??

Nobody said Andersen "blew the series" (people just have a real difficulty giving opposing players credit), and it really depends what's available. Even aside from the quarantine barrier that complicates things this year, paying a lot of assets for goaltending is risky, because they are so unpredictable and variable. Andersen could just as easily get hot this playoffs. The most important thing we can do is play the hot goaltender, whoever we have.

Let's not forget that Dubas stood pat on D and passed on Bogo at the TDL and then had to bring in Marincin when Muzzin was injured.

Not sure what this has to do with anything. Seems more like a random shot at Dubas. For the record, Bogosian was having a horrible season prior to joining Tampa, and Marincin (LHD and PK replacement) was not the issue in the playoffs. We defended very well.

 

[ToneDog]

I don't "defend to the death". I point out facts when necessary, especially when a player is being irrationally bashed, and I have similarly defended Andersen at times, but Andersen is also consistently the one on our team that gets more credit and praise than he has earned.

Nobody said Andersen "blew the series" (people just have a real difficulty giving opposing players credit), and it really depends what's available. Even aside from the quarantine barrier that complicates things this year, paying a lot of assets for goaltending is risky, because they are so unpredictable and variable. Andersen could just as easily get hot this offseason. The most important thing we can do is play the hot goaltender, whoever we have.

Not sure what this has to do with anything. Seems more like a random shot at Dubas. For the record, Bogosian was having a horrible season prior to joining Tampa, and Marincin (LHD and PK replacement) was not the issue in the playoffs. We defended very well.

Good GMs are able to anticipate needs. The Leafs (not Dubas alone) decided to stand pat last year on D (other than bringing back Rosen LOL) and it cost them vs CBJ. It is no secret Dubas tried to move Andy this past summer. If he sticks with Andy and Andy poops the bed, I'd hate to be Dubas this summer.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Leafs (not Dubas alone) decided to stand pat last year on D (other than bringing back Rosen LOL) and it cost them vs CBJ.

That is completely incorrect. They didn't lose to Columbus last year because they did not add Bogosian. Again, we played very well defensively, even after Marincin replaced Muzzin.

It is no secret Dubas tried to move Andy this past summer.

I mean, that's all speculation, and seeing what the market is like for a player with 1 year left after a disappointing season is perfectly normal for a GM to do. That doesn't mean you toss him aside without a reasonable alternative. Andersen is not a bad goalie - he's just not a goalie you play no matter what, even if he's struggling.

 

[stickty111]

That is completely incorrect. They didn't lose to Columbus last year because they did not add Bogosian. Again, we played very well defensively, even after Marincin replaced Muzzin.

I mean, that's all speculation, and seeing what the market is like for a player with 1 year left after a disappointing season is perfectly normal for a GM to do. That doesn't mean you toss him aside without a reasonable alternative. Andersen is not a bad goalie - he's just not a goalie you play no matter what, even if he's struggling.

Ignoring the clearly made up reasons to bash Dubas by that user, I think Dubas will be looking all avenues to improve the roster including Freddy, but where are you going to find that upgrade in season? It's a pretty tough market for goalies usually.

 

[zeke]

Ignoring the clearly made up reasons to bash Dubas by that user, I think Dubas will be looking all avenues to improve the roster including Freddy, but where are you going to find that upgrade in season? It's a pretty tough market for goalies usually.

The one clear target for me would be Kuemper.

But I don't think he'd be cheap and Arizona isn't forced to trade him at this point....but I do think he's gettable.

 

[zeke]

Good GMs are able to anticipate needs. The Leafs (not Dubas alone) decided to stand pat last year on D (other than bringing back Rosen LOL) and it cost them vs CBJ. It is no secret Dubas tried to move Andy this past summer. If he sticks with Andy and Andy poops the bed, I'd hate to be Dubas this summer.

1. The D didn't cost them in the playoffs.

2. Dubas pretty publicly decided not to add rentals at the deadline as the team hadn't shown they were worth sacrificing futures for.

 

[stickty111]

The one clear target for me would be Kuemper.

But I don't think he'd be cheap and Arizona isn't forced to trade him at this point.

He was one of my targets in the off season, and still is, but Arizona isn't in sell mode, so we'll see. The fact Dubas even was willing to go the Markstrom rout tells me Freddy's leash is small

 

[zeke]

The fact Dubas even was willing to go the Markstrom rout

what does this refer to?

 

[stickty111]

what does this refer to?

Sorry meant Route lol
Mirtle mentioned Leafs were interested in Markstorm who went to Calgary. I found it odd considering the contract he was going to get, but it just showed that Leafs were fed up with Freddy.

 

[zeke]

 

[zeke]

We should trade Fred for Kuemper right now and roll with Campbell/Hutch until Kuemper is ready. He can even clear quarantine while rehabbing. Arizona might do it rather than go a month without their starter.

 

[McSnypsky]

Nope. What I will say is that while SV% doesn't always tell the whole story, it is the single best measurement for goalies we have. Also, over the 5 games against CLB the eye test backs up the numbers which say Andersen played well. And I stand by my earlier statement - in a PO series I'll take a .936 SV% every time as most cups are won with less, sometimes much less.

Also this fantasy scenario is pretty extreme. I'm not sure Andersen's ever let in the first two shots of a game and someone showed the numbers recently that showed he doesn't even in let in the first shot at some abnormal rate. It's sad that people are still spouting this false narrative, why are we so anxious to tear down one of our own even when they play well?

For reference, our team SV% is currently .917 and we're killing it. If we were at .936, can you imagine where we'd be at? And if we were at .936 and were losing then I'm pretty sure the problem would be somewhere else, not the guys playing in net. 917-.918 is where Freddie was at his first 3 years with us and while his numbers went south last season he raised his level of play in the playoffs, I wouldn't mind of all our players did that. I don't have full confidence in him and I would like to find someone better but give the guy credit where credit is due - last year he was great in the playoffs.



Id have him back if one more thing was true - we can't find anyone better.

I don't see him as a top 10 goalie any more. I do think his mental makeup is fine and he gives a sht all the time though.



The idea of starting next season with two goalies who have less than 100 NHL games between them seems like a terrible idea. Do that and there's a good chance that people would be calling for Dubas to be fired before the season even started and that discontent would grow into a roar before we're even one month into the season.



I don't see any team giving him that kind of term at this point. 2-3 years would be my guess and if we can't find anyone better, I wouldn't mind having him back for two years myself. Even three years makes me a bit nervous at this point.

Yes for next year probably will have to have someone else and Campbell but it will be a 82 game season and I think you have to get someone else in there like Woll or even some other young goalie via trade to begin the cycle of trying to produce a goalie that can give 5ish years of good service then is replaced by someone else in the system. We keep having to use up Cap or Picks to fix the most volatile position in the game and it will still be uncertain. It's just frustrating with all the resources the Leafs have we haven't figured it out yet, hell we're not even really talking about it that way, it's trade or UFA that's it. Sorry for the rant

 

[SeaOfBlue]

We should trade Fred for Kuemper right now and roll with Campbell/Hutch until Kuemper is ready. He can even clear quarantine while rehabbing. Arizona might do it rather than go a month without their starter.

Ballsy.

 

[Guy Boucher]

I'd rather sign Driedger for less.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We should trade Fred for Kuemper right now and roll with Campbell/Hutch until Kuemper is ready. He can even clear quarantine while rehabbing. Arizona might do it rather than go a month without their starter.

Not sure if they are willing to trade him but if they are, that seems like a good idea.

Yes for next year probably will have to have someone else and Campbell but it will be a 82 game season and I think you have to get someone else in there like Woll or even some other young goalie via trade to begin the cycle of trying to produce a goalie that can give 5ish years of good service then is replaced by someone else in the system. We keep having to use up Cap or Picks to fix the most volatile position in the game and it will still be uncertain. It's just frustrating with all the resources the Leafs have we haven't figured it out yet, hell we're not even really talking about it that way, it's trade or UFA that's it. Sorry for the rant

Dubas has done such a good job overall that I'm not going to complain about the goaltending just yet. And Andersen was very good in the playoffs so maybe he can do it again, who knows? Hopefully we have a solution in place by the time we begin next season.