Do you believe in Frederik Andersen? Would you re-sign?

[Gallagbi]

Reimer was horrible on the last 2 goals to tie it. Completely moved himself out of position and over reacted to the plays.
For me it's not even close. Andie everyday all day over Reimer
Again this is a great example of bias and I will evaluate the goalie via stats, starts, sv%, shots faced etc
Trying to evaluate on what is a soft goal leaves too much room for interpretation and thus will be tainted by bias

Reimer plates 1 series with a .923 save% which is better than 3 of Fred's 4 Leaf playoff series, and his career average.

The only series Fred had better numbers was last year when the Leafs had an incredibly low xGA.

And again, this is a goalie who was literally supplanted purely on that collapse, but were looking to stick with Fred?

 

[saltming]

Reimer plates 1 series with a .923 save% which is better than 3 of Fred's 4 Leaf playoff series, and his career average.

The only series Fred had better numbers was last year when the Leafs had an incredibly low xGA.

And again, this is a goalie who was literally supplanted purely on that collapse, but were looking to stick with Fred?

2018/19 playoffs Andersen had a .944sv%
2019/20 playoffs .924sv%

 

[Gallagbi]

2018/19 playoffs Andersen had a .944sv%
2019/20 playoffs .924sv%

I see .922 in 18/19 and .934 in 19/20 on NHL.com

 

[saltming]

I see .922 in 18/19 and .934 in 19/20 on NHL.com

I'm using natural stick but I'm not used to the site so I might not be setting it up right
Either way Reimer body of work cannot compare

 

[Gallagbi]

I'm using natural stick but I'm not used to the site so I might not be setting it up right
Either way Reimer body of work cannot compare

You compared Reimer and Bernier, one of which didn't even play a playoff series here.

I was happy to help at highlight Freda shortfall on the playoffs. Truthfully I think it's mental and the primary reason to move on. Good for both parties.

 

[saltming]

@Gallagbi

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[saltming]

You compared Reimer and Bernier, one of which didn't even play a playoff series here.

I was happy to help at highlight Freda shortfall on the playoffs. Truthfully I think it's mental and the primary reason to move on. Good for both parties.

I didn't compare them I use them as an example of when we had shoddy goaltending saying I don't want to go back to those days

 

[Gallagbi]

@Gallagbi

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Thanks,
You're only looking at 5v5 stats, so it excludes PP, PK, 6on5

 

[saltming]

Thanks,
You're only looking at 5v5 stats, so it excludes PP, PK, 6on5

Thanks!!

 

[Gallagbi]

Thanks!!

You're welcome, it's a good site and I used it in the past for the xGA stats that I noted on Fred earlier

 

[saltming]

You're welcome, it's a good site and I used it in the past for the xGA stats that I noted on Fred earlier

I like it but just started using it. I will keep playing with it.
Thanks for the tip

 

[lebdafor norris]

Reimer plates 1 series with a .923 save% which is better than 3 of Fred's 4 Leaf playoff series, and his career average.

The only series Fred had better numbers was last year when the Leafs had an incredibly low xGA.

And again, this is a goalie who was literally supplanted purely on that collapse, but were looking to stick with Fred?

xGA is an incredibly flawed stat thou, for example look at the 5 vs 5 team xGA rating of teams from the seasons 2017-2020, that is a significant 3 season sample size which helps limit the effects of things such luck and hot streaks. According to xGA the Sabres were a top 10 defensive team, Carolina with its lauded defensive core was ranked a mere 16th, the Islanders with its boring but effective defensive system were an underwhelming 21st and the Capitals was criminally ranked at 28th putting its D in the same tier as the Rangers and the Sens.

You and I know those results are not right, and thats because xGA shot selection data is still very flawed, for example according to Naturalstat trick a breakaway and a whack to the goalie's pad up close while battling against the opponent's D both counts as high danger shots when the breakaway is clearly the higher percentage play. Zeke posted an article not long ago that shows that xGA R squared value with relation to GA is a measly 15% using about a decade worth of data as samples for data, the ideal score should have been 70+%(in the case of Baseball's WAR) or at very least 50%, in other words xGA should never, ever be used alone when judging D.

 

[Gallagbi]

xGA is an incredibly flawed stat thou, for example look at the 5 vs 5 team xGA rating of teams from the seasons 2017-2020, that is a significant 3 season sample size which helps limit the effects of things such luck and hot streaks. According to xGA the Sabres were a top 10 defensive team, Carolina with its lauded defensive core was ranked a mere 16th, the Islanders with its boring but effective defensive system were an underwhelming 21st and the Capitals was criminally ranked at 28th putting its D in the same tier as the Rangers and the Sens.

You and I know those results are not right, and thats because xGA shot selection data is still very flawed, for example according to Naturalstat trick a breakaway and a whack to the goalie's pad up close while battling against the opponent's D both counts as high danger shots when the breakaway is clearly the higher percentage play. Zeke posted an article not long ago that shows that xGA R squared value with relation to GA is a measly 15% using about a decade worth of data as samples for data, the ideal score should have been 70+%(in the case of Baseball's WAR) or at very least 50%, in other words xGA should never, ever be used alone when judging D.

I could simply say the Leafs were a much more sound defensive team last year vs. a less potent offense than Fred had faced in the past playoffs (and that Reimer faced) if that's easier for you to reconcile. Pretty sure HDCA and SCA were down (in the positive way) from their normal regular season and past playoffs as well, but I don't have those off the top of my head the way I did xGA for the series.


The point is mostly that Fred needed a better team, worse competition and still allowed back breaking goals that were hugely important to the series, to finally put up better playoff numbers than Reimer - a goalie who was run out of his starters job for that performance.

 

[lebdafor norris]

I could simply say the Leafs were a much more sound defensive team last year vs. a less potent offense than Fred had faced in the past playoffs (and that Reimer faced) if that's easier for you to reconcile.

The point is mostly that Fred needed a better team, worse competition and still allowed back breaking goals that were hugely important to the series, to finally put up better playoff numbers than Reimer - a goalie who was run out of his starters job for that performance.

Reimer cant even play 40+ games without getting injured here, had he been more durable, I'm sure he would have gotten a better chance. I've yet to see a season were Riemer carry the workload Andersen had for the Leafs. But I'm not going to criticized Riemer's playoff games because I though he was the MVP of the series until the second half of game 7 happened

 

[Gallagbi]

Reimer cant even play 40+ games without getting injured here, had he been more durable, I'm sure he would have gotten a better chance. I've yet to see a season were Riemer carry the workload Andersen had for the Leafs.

Workload isn't Andy's issue, truthfully I'd like to see him play less, but when you have to play your way through 2 prolonged funks each year that's tough.

Andersen could play all 82 games, but at some point you need to cut bait with a goalie who allows the back breaker he has year in and year out.

He may battle through it elsewhere, but I can't see him getting another kick at the can if the fails this year. Even that may be 1 too many opportunities

 

[lebdafor norris]

Workload isn't Andy's issue, truthfully I'd like to see him play less, but when you have to play your way through 2 prolonged funks each year that's tough.

Andersen could play all 82 games, but at some point you need to cut bait with a goalie who allows the back breaker he has year in and year out.

He may battle through it elsewhere, but I can't see him getting another kick at the can if the fails this year. Even that may be 1 too many opportunities

Andersen looks like his declining so its not like I'm against letting him go (I still think if his willing to resign for a similar cap then his worth keeping, pending on term) but lets stop this narrative that Andy is the cost of the Leafs playoff woes. In 2019, the Leafs scored a grand total of 4 goals in the last 3 games against Boston, the reason the series even went to game 7 was because Andy stole game 5 for the Leafs and against the CBJ the high powered offence was shut down in 2/5 games, that is unacceptable, especially when you have 4 game breaking forwards that is taking up close to 50 mill of the Cap combined.

My biggest issue with using Andy as the scapegoat is that its taking attention away from the bigger issue which is the Leafs offence constantly underperforming come playoff time. Have you watched Boston and TBL during the playoffs? Their elite forwards, guys like Pasta, Marchand, Kuch and Point looks so much more effective in comparison to the Leafs' elite forwards when that shouldn't be the case, I dont expect Andy to be the game breaker I expect the Leafs' top line talent to do that, thats what this team is built for and I dont expect the Leafs to win a series until the Leafs biggest strengths actually performs up to standards come playoff time.

 

[Gallagbi]

Andersen looks like his declining so its not like I'm against letting him go but lets stop this narrative that Andy is the cost of the Leafs playoff woes. In 2019, the Leafs scored a grand total of 4 goals in the last 3 games against Boston, the reason the series even went to game 7 was because Andy stole game 5 for the Leafs and against the CBJ the high powered offence was shut down in 2/5 games, that is unacceptable, especially when you have 4 game breaking forwards that is taking up close to 50 mill of the Cap combined.

My biggest issue with using Andy as the scapegoat is that its taking attention away from the bigger issue which is the Leafs offence constantly underperforming come playoff time. Have you watched Boston and TBL during the playoffs? Their elite forwards, guys like Pasta, Marchand, Kuch and Point looks so much more effective in comparison to the Leafs' elite forwards when that shouldn't be the case, I dont expect Andy to be the game breaker I expect the Leafs' top line talent to do that, thats what this team is built for and I dont expect the Leafs to win a series until the Leafs biggest strengths actually performs up to standards come playoff time.

I agree the offense wasn't good enough, but his bad goals in 2019 put them in a spot to fight through a defensively focused team that was able to go into a defensive shell with the poor goals (I'd say all were poor, but 2 were just brutal)

Last year he's off the hook if he doesn't close the door on our season with 5 minutes left on a horrific goal. That's even with a terrible, game costing performance in Game 3, you still give him the pass.

You want your team to be good enough to win in spite of his play. That's concerning to say

 

[lebdafor norris]

I agree the offense wasn't good enough, but his bad goals in 2019 put them in a spot to fight through a defensive focus.

Last year he's off the hook if he doesn't close the door with 5 minutes left on a horrific goal. That's even with a terrible, game costing performance in Game 3.

You want your team to be good enough to win in spite of his play. That's concerning to say

Every goalie allows bad goals people here seems to think Andy is the only one capable of doing that yet no one talks about the actual high danger and medium danger saves he makes thru out the series that kept the Leafs in it, the man saved 37 out of 40 shots against the Bruins in game 6, which if the Leafs won would have finally got them to advance to round 2, he kept the team in it despite the sub par defence in front of him, yet no one ever talked about why the offence didn't step up, that Andy with the sub par defence and the non existent offence carried the Leafs thru the 2nd half of that Boston series.

 

[Gallagbi]

Every goalie allows bad goals people here seems to think Andy is the only one capable of doing that yet no one talks about the actual high danger and medium danger saves he makes thru out the series that kept the Leafs in it, the man saved 37 out of 40 shots against the Bruins in game 6, he kept the team in it despite the sub par defence in front of him, yet no one ever talked about why the offence didn't step up, that Andy with the sub par defence and the non existent offence carried the Leafs thru the 2nd half of that Boston series.

Most goalies don't allow the significant amount of bad goals in those critical games. If it flip flopped in the way you suggest, we'd have one of those last 3 elimination games or got us at least a few easy ones like Fred allowed.

There was significant talk on the amount of quality saves he made in last playoffs actually. Just a shame the other guy(s) were doing it much better and how he wasn't able to find his angles in a few key spots.

 

[zeke]

Good game Freddy.

Didn't have to do anything spectacular but you were pretty rock solid.

More of that please.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Most goalies don't allow the significant amount of bad goals in those critical games. If it flip flopped in the way you suggest, we'd have one of those last 3 elimination games or got us at least a few easy ones like Fred allowed.

There was significant talk on the amount of quality saves he made in last playoffs actually. Just a shame the other guy(s) were doing it much better and how he wasn't able to find his angles in a few key spots.

Most of the noise about quality saves comes from the xGA squad, at least most of the noise on these forums, a stat that is very flawed from the start. Those same Jackets team averaged 2.4 goals a game against the best goalie in the world playing behind a top 5 league defence during the next series, for comparison Andy allowed 1.84 goals behind an inferior defence, so the talks of shot quality is such a poor excuse to deflect the blame on the new Leaf scapegoat now that the old ones (Phaneuf and Gardiner) are gone.

The Leafs were utterly incapable of stopping the Jacket's cycle once Muzzin left the series, even Holl was getting physically bullied something which the Jacket fans took note of, seriously, Andersen is really the only goalie in the history of the NHL who can put up Tim Thomas/Hasek like numbers in a playoff series and still be criticized for having a mediocre performance by his team's fanbase.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Most goalies don't allow the significant amount of bad goals in those critical games. If it flip flopped in the way you suggest, we'd have one of those last 3 elimination games or got us at least a few easy ones like Fred allowed.

Every goal allowed will look significant when the offence, the team's identity which is suppose to balanced out the bottom 15 defence is either getting shutout or is scoring just 1 measly goal for the entire 60 minutes of gameplay.

 

[Gallagbi]

Most of the noise about quality saves comes from the xGA squad, at least most of the noise on these forums, a stat that is very flawed from the start. Those same Jackets team averaged 2.4 goals a game against the best goalie in the world playing behind a top 5 league defence during the next series, for comparison Andy allowed 1.84 goals behind an inferior defence, so the talks of shot quality is such a poor excuse to deflect the blame on the new Leaf scapegoat now that the old ones (Phaneuf and Gardiner) are gone.

The Leafs were utterly incapable of stopping the Jacket's cycle once Muzzin left the series, even Holl was getting physically bullied something which the Jacket fans took note of, seriously, Andersen is really the only goalie in the history of the NHL who can put up Tim Thomas/Hasek like numbers in a playoff series and still be criticized for having a mediocre performance by his team's fanbase.

Thomas and Hasek were usually the best goalies in the series, Fred wasn't.

The offense was (and is) heavily criticized for that series, but they also generated similar scoring chances to what they did in the regular season with less of a return. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the chance against metrics were better for the Leafs in the playoffs where they also faced a team with less effective scorers than they were in the regular season, so we should expect a better Fred.

Last year was Fred's best playoff performance and it comes with a brutal game 3, a poor GWG in Game 1 and a huge backbreaker in Game 5. Some of those are going to happen, you can write some of it off to luck/bounce, but it's also happened literally every playoff with the Leafs.

Take any one of these as an individual series loss and you can move on, 4 losses in a row - 3 blow elimination games on the back of bad goals - the last 2 coming with absolutely horrific goals in key times, these aren't good patterns.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Tonight he looked calm and in position. Other nights, he fights the puck, he's all over the place and too many meh shots are getting buy him.

 

[ChickenMcNugget]

Thomas and Hasek were usually the best goalies in the series, Fred wasn't.

The offense was (and is) heavily criticized for that series, but they also generated similar scoring chances to what they did in the regular season with less of a return. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the chance against metrics were better for the Leafs in the playoffs where they also faced a team with less effective scorers than they were in the regular season, so we should expect a better Fred.

Last year was Fred's best playoff performance and it comes with a brutal game 3, a poor GWG in Game 1 and a huge backbreaker in Game 5. Some of those are going to happen, you can write some of it off to luck/bounce, but it's also happened literally every playoff with the Leafs.

Take any one of these as an individual series loss and you can move on, 4 losses in a row - 3 blow elimination games on the back of bad goals - the last 2 coming with absolutely horrific goals in key times, these aren't good patterns.

When you have 3 superstars being paid 10M+ I expect some better performance. I could care less how much better they looked on advanced stats. Those players are there to score goals and to score them precisely in big moments. I understand that their goalie was better but there were not 1 but 3 of the highest paid players in the league who could not do what they got paid to do in 2 separate games. I dont care if they put prime Brodeur there, they have to score!

I still have no idea how the goalie is getting blamed. He and the defense kept the game close. What did the offense do? F*** All!