Do the Oilers make the playoffs this year?

[lawrence]

a coin toss type of question, they are closer to 50/50 then lets say the Oilers or the Red Wings, to be honest, I think they can make it, but if they miss it not surprised.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

If Klefbomb misses the season they miss the playoffs.

Link to your crystal ball?

 

[Czechboy]

And all it took was a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic to prevent them from missing the actual playoffs.

I think most people put way more stock in the 70+ games that were played during the regular season, over a glorified 4 or 5 game exhibition after five months off. They were a legitimate playoff team in 2019-20.

The pandemic didn't cost the Oil a playoff spot. Losing to the Blackhawks in a play in did. Coincidentally, the Hawks did not do well in round 1 of the playoffs. It's not like we lost to Tampa.

 

[snipes]

The pandemic didn't cost the Oil a playoff spot. Losing to the Blackhawks in a play in did. Coincidentally, the Hawks did not do well in round 1 of the playoffs. It's not like we lost to Tampa.

Dallas was terrible in the round robin play after 4 months off and then went to the SCF.

The Oilers were 2nd in the Pacific at the time of stoppage.

 

[Regal]

The pandemic didn't cost the Oil a playoff spot. Losing to the Blackhawks in a play in did. Coincidentally, the Hawks did not do well in round 1 of the playoffs. It's not like we lost to Tampa.

Yea, but if you're trying to predict what would happen next year based on a normal playoff format, the regular season standings hold more weight than the play-in results.

 

[Del Preston]

The pandemic didn't cost the Oil a playoff spot. Losing to the Blackhawks in a play in did. Coincidentally, the Hawks did not do well in round 1 of the playoffs. It's not like we lost to Tampa.

A play-in that never would have occurred under normal circumstances. That's the point. In any other year they were a playoff team, just as Pittsburgh was.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

They lost to the Blackhawks in the play-in round, so while they technically played post-season hockey, they in fact, missed the playoffs, and I'm guessing they miss again this season.

They were like 95% to make the playoffs before covid ended the regular season. Let’s stop pretending like the play-ins discredit almost 70 games.

 

[Volica]

This will come down to two things:

1) Can their goaltending stay afloat at all. Mike Smith can give you ugly, and Koskinen can certainly do the same thing. Will Mikko give the Oil that high, high end goaltending he gave them for some stretches, or will he give them what you saw in the playoffs; where their team defence was exposed by a bad team and the goaltending couldn't make up the difference.

2) Can their Powerplay stay at 30%; the Oil were a team that got outshot, outchanced and outscored heavily on 5 on 5. If that powerplay moves to 2019 levels of just over 20% they'd be hard pressed to be a bubble team. If it moves to 2018 levels, they'll be contending for a lotto pick again; that's if they don't improve their 5 on 5 play... Which I don't think they did with the personnel they brought in to be honest.

 

[wetcoast]

Any of the Canadian teams could easily miss, there isn't one thats really yet proven itself as a powerhouse year in, year out.

No one has really earned the right to strut.

I think the Leafs are a lock for the playoffs as there is just too much talent on that team.

 

[Soundwave]

I think the Leafs are a lock for the playoffs as there is just too much talent on that team.

I would lean yes to them, but I wouldn't say it's a "lock" per se. The Oilers are also quite talented now, the days of Chiarelli trying to fill out the roster with guys like Brandon Manning and Petrovic and Spooner (shudders) are over.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

They were like 95% to make the playoffs before covid ended the regular season. Let’s stop pretending like the play-ins discredit almost 70 games.

No. But losing to a bottom feeder like Chicago when the games mattered the most is certainly relevant. I think they’ll make the playoffs but they won’t get as easy a match up next year so I’m sceptical that they can win a series with their goal tending.

 

[Soundwave]

This will come down to two things:

1) Can their goaltending stay afloat at all. Mike Smith can give you ugly, and Koskinen can certainly do the same thing. Will Mikko give the Oil that high, high end goaltending he gave them for some stretches, or will he give them what you saw in the playoffs; where their team defence was exposed by a bad team and the goaltending couldn't make up the difference.

2) Can their Powerplay stay at 30%; the Oil were a team that got outshot, outchanced and outscored heavily on 5 on 5. If that powerplay moves to 2019 levels of just over 20% they'd be hard pressed to be a bubble team. If it moves to 2018 levels, they'll be contending for a lotto pick again; that's if they don't improve their 5 on 5 play... Which I don't think they did with the personnel they brought in to be honest.

Well I mean both Klefbom and Larsson were hurt in the playoffs so that probably hurt the D significantly, at least this summer they have acquired someone to play some of Klef's minutes.

The Oilers were not bad 5 on 5 once they split McDavid and Draisaitl apart on Jan. 1 and I feel like they are deeper now than even last year.

It was easier to cave the Oilers 5 on 5 when McDavid + Draisaitl were both on one line because they can only play like 24 minutes/60 minute game maximum really, but when you divide them up on two lines, now it's more like 44 minutes/60 ... that changes the metrics for the Oilers tremendously.

Playing those two together was long term a bad idea, not because their production wasn't sky high, but because for like the remaining 38-40 minutes of a game (the majority) teams could feast on the Oilers lines 2/3/4 which were weak. Pittsburgh's model was always the way to go.

If for whatever reason Koskinen falls off, then I think you make a move for Darcy Kuemper or Antti Raanta or another goalie, but Kuemper I think would be the ideal fit. The Oilers have the pieces otherwise to make the playoffs, if you have to give them picks, then so be it. I don't see Smith finishing the season with the Oilers, think he is a stop gap, when the Oilers can put Klefbom on LTIR on the first day of the season Holland can circle back to the goaltending.

 

[Czechboy]

Yea, but if you're trying to predict what would happen next year based on a normal playoff format, the regular season standings hold more weight than the play-in results.

I don't think either holds much water towards next year. New season, new start. Just pointing out that there were playoffs and we weren't in them.

 

[Czechboy]

A play-in that never would have occurred under normal circumstances. That's the point. In any other year they were a playoff team, just as Pittsburgh was.

In any other season they'd have to play 10 more games and qualify for the playoffs... they weren't qualified as of the stoppage. A few teams were, we weren't one of them. It definitely wasn't a normal circumstance but there was a playoff format and we didn't make it. We don't get to rewrite history... Tampa won the cup, we didn't make the playoffs.

 

[Del Preston]

In any other season they'd have to play 10 more games and qualify for the playoffs... they weren't qualified as of the stoppage. A few teams were, we weren't one of them. It definitely wasn't a normal circumstance but there was a playoff format and we didn't make it. We don't get to rewrite history... Tampa won the cup, we didn't make the playoffs.

Whatever you say.

Do you know how unlikely it was for the Oilers to miss the playoffs over the final 11 games?

 

[Soundwave]

In any other season they'd have to play 10 more games and qualify for the playoffs... they weren't qualified as of the stoppage. A few teams were, we weren't one of them. It definitely wasn't a normal circumstance but there was a playoff format and we didn't make it. We don't get to rewrite history... Tampa won the cup, we didn't make the playoffs.

They had a very, very high chance of getting in, lets be honest.

Maybe next year an alien invasion or asteroid collision or zombie virus outbreak hits earth at game 71, pausing the season, can't really blame teams for things that are so far out of their control it's ridiculous.

Also the NHL labelling things the way they did was just a way to cover their asses in case Pittsburgh/Edmonton/Toronto/who ever ended up winning the draft lottery. If you're playing an elimination round ... against the same team ... and even the stats are counted as "playoff statistics" ... that is a "play off", lol. It's basically just hiding behind semantics to say it isn't.

 

[Czechboy]

They had a very, very high chance of getting in, lets be honest.

Maybe next year an alien invasion or asteroid collision or zombie virus outbreak hits earth at game 71, pausing the season, can't really blame teams for things that are so far out of their control it's ridiculous.

They did have a very high chance... They had a really high chance of winning the cup in 2006 too! It's not how history works.

 

[Volica]

Well I mean both Klefbom and Larsson were hurt in the playoffs so that probably hurt the D significantly, at least this summer they have acquired someone to play some of Klef's minutes.

The Oilers were not bad 5 on 5 once they split McDavid and Draisaitl apart on Jan. 1 and I feel like they are deeper now than even last year.

It was easier to cave the Oilers 5 on 5 when McDavid + Draisaitl were both on one line because they can only play like 24 minutes/60 minute game maximum really, but when you divide them up on two lines, now it's more like 44 minutes/60 ... that changes the metrics for the Oilers tremendously.

Playing those two together was long term a bad idea, not because their production wasn't sky high, but because for like the remaining 38-40 minutes of a game (the majority) teams could feast on the Oilers lines 2/3/4 which were weak. Pittsburgh's model was always the way to go.

If for whatever reason Koskinen falls off, then I think you make a move for Darcy Kuemper or Antti Raanta or another goalie, but Kuemper I think would be the ideal fit. The Oilers have the pieces otherwise to make the playoffs, if you have to give them picks, then so be it. I don't see Smith finishing the season with the Oilers, think he is a stop gap, when the Oilers can put Klefbom on LTIR on the first day of the season Holland can circle back to the goaltending.

To note.
McDavid and Draisaitl were both players that got hammered on shots against and chances against, but had positive goal numbers (3 and 4% above their expected rate). That may also point to a bit of puck luck; but overall, those aren't even particularly exciting metrics all things considered. I don't think there' s much denying the talent those two have scoring, but as a team I think it's still very similar to the team that lived off killing people on the PP.

 

[Czechboy]

Whatever you say.

Do you know how unlikely it was for the Oilers to miss the playoffs over the final 11 games?

They had a good chance for sure.. I was hoping they'd make it. They didn't. If Connor didn't have his collarbone broken he had a really high chance of being rookie of the year. If Klefbom could play uninjured every year we'd be a better team and he'd be considered a Top 20 Dman year after year. It's all hope but not reality. If the Avs were fully healthy they may have won the Cup, didn't happen.

 

[Soundwave]

To note.
McDavid and Draisaitl were both players that got hammered on shots against and chances against, but had positive goal numbers (3 and 4% above their expected rate). That may also point to a bit of puck luck; but overall, those aren't even particularly exciting metrics all things considered. I don't think there' s much denying the talent those two have scoring, but as a team I think it's still very similar to the team that lived off killing people on the PP.

Again, though I think those numbers are very different pre-Jan.1 and post Jan.1.

The McDavid-Draisaitl experiment on one line had gone on way too long and weakened the team overall way too much.

Once they were split apart, the team played at a 105 point pace until the season was stopped and 5-on-5 metrics for the team improved notably.

Unless they are planning for some stupid reason to go back to a 1 line team, it's a different ball game when you have to defend two dangerous lines instead of just one that can only play a max of 24/60 minutes.

Draisaitl become a Hart trophy guy who can drive his own line and score at a 100+ point rate without McDavid completely alters the Oilers as a team, you can't play them the same way anymore.

I don't really understand WTF Chiarelli was even building in Edmonton, some slow, unskilled, one line team ... the Penguins were an obvious blue print to look at, yet he was obsessed with having a bunch of coke machines on the roster.

 

[CupofOil]

This will come down to two things:

1) Can their goaltending stay afloat at all. Mike Smith can give you ugly, and Koskinen can certainly do the same thing. Will Mikko give the Oil that high, high end goaltending he gave them for some stretches, or will he give them what you saw in the playoffs; where their team defence was exposed by a bad team and the goaltending couldn't make up the difference.

2) Can their Powerplay stay at 30%; the Oil were a team that got outshot, outchanced and outscored heavily on 5 on 5. If that powerplay moves to 2019 levels of just over 20% they'd be hard pressed to be a bubble team. If it moves to 2018 levels, they'll be contending for a lotto pick again; that's if they don't improve their 5 on 5 play... Which I don't think they did with the personnel they brought in to be honest.

What makes you say that?
Two things, the 5 on 5 play drastically improved once McDavid and Draisaitl split so looking at the 5 on 5 play for the entire season doesn't present an accurate picture of what the team will look like next season.

Also, their 3rd line with Sheahan at center was one of the worst at 5 on 5 in the league. Turris might not be what he once was but I highly HIGHLY doubt that the 3rd line is worse off than it was last season at 5 on 5. They also improved their winger depth with Kahun, Ennis and Puljujarvi (assuming that he isn't a complete bust). Klefbom is a loss but Barrie is historically a pretty good 5 on 5 player.

I'd expect their PP and PK to regress a bit but their 5 on 5 play should improve to offset that. The biggest questions, as always, will be defense and goaltending. Offensively they are deeper.
On paper, they should be an improved 5 on 5 team.

 

[Del Preston]

They had a good chance for sure.. I was hoping they'd make it. They didn't. If Connor didn't have his collarbone broken he had a really high chance of being rookie of the year. If Klefbom could play uninjured every year we'd be a better team and he'd be considered a Top 20 Dman year after year. It's all hope but not reality. If the Avs were fully healthy they may have won the Cup, didn't happen.

So you don't know what you are talking about and are just going to stretch things to ridiculous lengths to make your point. Got it.

 

[WillTheThrill]

Leafs and Flames are locks in an all Canadian division. Oilers will battle with VAN and MTL for a spot.

 

[thefutures]

I think they make it in, Holland didn't spend much but was able to bring in some pretty good depth compared to what they had. Maybe I'm downplaying Klefboms impact and how it may affect the team but I feel pretty confident in saying they make it.

 

[Soundwave]

Leafs and Flames are locks in an all Canadian division. Oilers will battle with VAN and MTL for a spot.

I don't think people are factoring in the Oiler adds for the full year are significant.

Yamamoto, Kahun, Barrie, Ennis, Turris, Puljujarvi were not on the Oilers roster for the first half of the season last year.

Nugent Hopkins also went from a guy trending for his usual 50-ish points to scoring at a 70-80 point clip, he's finally taking a step up in his development and Draisaitl went supernova on his own line.

Giordano's numbers fell off a cliff for Calgary last season too and he was not good in the playoffs again, maybe age is getting to him, dude is 37. If that's the case, then I don't think they are necessarily better than last year. Talbot was .919 for them last year, Markstrom was .918 for the Canucks.